Adamant: Hardest metal
Monday, May 5, 2003

Brazil Real Rises on International Bond Sale: Latin Currencies

By Elzio Barreto

Sao Paulo, April 29 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Brazil's currency rose from yesterday's eight-month high on optimism the government's sale of $1 billion in bonds shows increased confidence in the country's ability to pay its debts.

The currency rose as much as 1.9 percent to 2.9025 reais per dollar, its strongest level in almost nine months, and at 3:35 p.m. New York time, was trading at 2.9105. The real has gained 21 percent in 2003, the best performance among the 59 currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The Mexican and Chilean pesos strengthened.

Brazil sold $1 billion of bonds due Jan. 16, 2007, and was priced to yield 10.7 percent, according a spokesman for UBS Warburg LLC, which is managing the sale with Merrill Lynch & Co. Brazil is taking advantage of falling borrowing rates as investors gain confidence in its ability to pay its roughly $300 billion in debt.

The sale is important because it shows international markets believe in Brazil's credibility,'' said Carlos Gandolfo, a partner at Pioneer Corretora de Cambio SA, a Sao Paulo currency broker. There is a lot of talk that most of the bonds have been placed, which signals there is a lot of demand for the bonds.''

Also boosting the currency was the revision of the country's B+ credit rating to stable from negative by Standard & Poor's Rating Services, citing ``prospects fro a further strengthening of Brazil's fiscal position,'' S&P said in a statement.

Brazil's currency yesterday closed at its strongest level since Aug. 8 after central bank President Henrique Meirelles said the currency was still undervalued'' and we still have lots of room to see the currency appreciate.''

Exporters

Meirelles' comments damped investor concern the central bank might take steps to slow the real's appreciation against the dollar as a way to sustain export growth.

Following the central bank chief's comments, the bank said it won't renew a $429 million credit line to exporters that is maturing on May 5, on increased bond sales by banks and companies that are bringing U.S. dollars to the country.

The credit line was part of a $2 billion program the central bank set up last year to finance exports, as international banks such as Citigroup Inc. and FleetBoston Financial Corp. cut financing to Brazilian companies.

Not renewing the trade lines would pressure the exchange rate, but the recent good news and inflows are more than making up for that,'' Gandolfo said. The exchange rate is getting closer to year-ago levels, but it still has more room to gain.''

The real rose in the futures market. The U.S. dollar contract for May 1 settlement, the most traded on Sao Paulo's BM&F commodities and futures exchange, fell 1.5 percent to 2.919 reais to the dollar.

The country's benchmark 8 percent bond due 2014 climbed 0.25 cent on the dollar to 86.88, its highest level since October 1997, paring the yield to 11.28 percent.

Mexico

Mexico's peso rose to a four-month high after consumer confidence in the U.S. took its biggest monthly jump in 12 years, boosting the prospects for growth in world's largest economy and Mexico's biggest trading partner.

The peso rose as much as 0.8 percent to 10.2845 per dollar, its strongest level since reaching 10.25 per dollar on Dec. 30, and was recently exchanging hands at 10.2895. The peso has gained 9.5 percent since falling to a record low of 11.2644 on March 6.

Investors were buoyed by the New York-based Conference Board's report today that its consumer confidence index increased to 81 from 61.4 in March. The rise was the biggest since March 1991, the end of the previous war with Iraq, and well above the median forecast of 70 in a Bloomberg News survey of 62 analysts.

U.S. consumers buy 85 percent of Mexico's exports, representing a quarter of its $600 billion gross domestic product, while U.S. investors account for 70 percent of the direct foreign investment flowing into Latin America's largest economy.

Cone

Argentina's peso rose to near a one-year high reached last week, gaining 2.2 percent to 2.8050 per dollar, 1 centavo weaker than its intraday high of 2.7950 reached April 22. The currency last traded at a stronger level on April 17, 2002.

Chile's currency rose 0.3 percent to 706.15 per dollar and earlier reached 704.20, its strongest level since trading at 699.60 on Dec. 23, after the price of Chile's No. 1 export, copper, had it biggest one-day gain in two-weeks.

Andes

Colombia's peso rose rose 0.4 percent to 2,875 per dollar, paring its loss against the dollar in 2003 to 0.3 percent.

Peru's new sol rose 0.1 percent to 3.4595 per dollar.

Venezuela fixed its bolivar currency at 1,598 per dollar after it plunged to a record-low of 1,921.8. Last Updated: April 29, 2003 15:37 EDT

Bolivia refuses to lower gas export prices, quotas to Brazil

<a href=ogj.pennnet.com>Oil & Gas Journal By an OGJ correspondent

RIO DE JANEIRO, Apr. 28 -- At a meeting Monday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva failed to convince Bolivia's President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada to revise the contract under which Brazil imports a fixed quota of gas from its neighbor.

"It is very unlikely that Bolivia will distance itself from what was agreed (with Brazil) in good faith in the past. It is unlikely that we will change the take-or-pay clause of the contract," said Lozada.

However, Brazilian Energy Minister Dilma Rousseff, who also took part in the talks, declared, "Brazil will only increase the volume of gas imported from Bolivia if the price of the fuel is reduced."

Brazil wanted to revise the take-or-pay clause in the import contract signed with Bolivia in 1996. Under that agreement, Brazil pays for a certain quota of imported Bolivian gas even if it does not need to import the fuel. Brazilian officials claim the take-or-pay provision will cost Brazil more than the present $150 million/year.

The minimum gas quota Brazil agreed to import from Bolivia is 14 million cu m/d. Under the agreement, the minimum quota would be boosted to 18 million cu m/d by 2004.

However, Brazil currently demands only 11 million cu m/d.The Brazilian economy is undergoing a severe recession, and it is unlikely that Brazil's gas consumption will increase from present levels for at least the next 2 years, said local analysts. Moreover, Lula's administration shelved the ambitious gas fired thermoelectric plants project devised by former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso.

Brazilian officials said the price of imported Bolivian gas has dampened Brazil's demand for the commodity. However, Lozada rejected the possibility of reducing gas prices without Brazil increasing imports.

A source in Brazil's foreign ministry told OGJ Online that he was not surprised with Lozada's position since Bolivia's president heads one of Latin America's most nationalistic and poorest countries.

Bolivia's natural gas reserves are estimated at 52 tcf, second in Latin America behind Venezuela. Bolivia's economy depends heavily on its gas sales, the source said. In addition, Losada faces strong opposition from powerful left wing factions in Bolivia who oppose lowering prices of exported gas.

Venezuela Dismisses U.S. Pressure for Chavez Vote

Tue April 29, 2003 03:40 PM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela (<a href=reuters.com>Reuters) - Venezuela's vice president on Tuesday rejected U.S. calls for President Hugo Chavez to sign an agreement for a referendum on his rule, saying the government did not "give a damn" about foreign pressure.

Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel, a close ally of the populist leader, dismissed statements by U.S. officials that Chavez should accept the internationally brokered deal for a referendum after middle of August this year.

"Venezuela is not a colony. So, regarding what other people say about Venezuela, those who are not Venezuelans, we don't give a damn," Rangel told reporters. "An agreement will be signed voluntarily ... not under any foreign pressure."

Rangel did not mention the United States directly. But two U.S. officials on Monday expressed concern that Chavez would delay the accord for a poll on whether to end his mandate.

Venezuelan opposition leaders reached the referendum deal with government negotiators on April 11, a year after Chavez survived the brief military coup that triggered months of protests and street clashes over his rule.

But a week later the government backed away from signing the accord brokered by the Organization of American States (OAS). OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria is scrambling to patch up the agreement.

"It's time to give a demonstration of good faith under these negotiations; it's time for President Chavez to sign the agreement as it is," Curtis Struble, acting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, said in Washington on Monday.

Otto Reich, the White House special envoy for the Western Hemisphere, also urged the government not to delay the electoral agreement.

The United States is part of a six-nation "Group of Friends" that is backing the OAS negotiations.

Under Venezuela's constitution, a referendum can be held after Aug. 19, or halfway through the president's term in office. The opposition must collect signatures from 20 percent of the electorate to trigger the vote.

The Venezuelan leader has always insisted that he would agree to a referendum as foreseen under the constitution. But the opposition believes the government will scuttle the vote.

Chavez, elected in 1998 on promises to ease poverty, and his foes have been locked in a political struggle since last year's coup.

Silva meeting with many counterparts

Brazil president aims for economically unified Latin region CNN-AP, Tuesday, April 29, 2003 Posted: 1526 GMT (11:26 PM HKT)

BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) -- Pushing regional economic integration, Brazil's president met with his Bolivian counterpart in the latest summit highlighting the growing influence of South America's largest country.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Monday that he and Bolivian leader Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada agreed to improve roads and bridges to boost trade between the neighboring nations.

Silva, who has met with the presidents of Colombia, Peru and Venezuela in the past month, will get visits in May from the leaders Uruguay and Ecuador in the Brazilian capital.

Experts say the flurry of activity is a message to the United States: A united South America will negotiate hard over terms of a proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas trade zone.

The United States and Brazil will spearhead the negotiations to create the 34-nation bloc stretching from Alaska to the southern tip of Argentina.

Brazil and other South American countries have repeatedly said that FTAA negotiations won't go far unless the U.S. makes commitments to reduce tariff barriers on agricultural products such as orange juice and sugar.

Silva, a former union leader known for his negotiating skills with multinational firms, wants by December to merge two current Latin trading blocs -- Mercosur and the Andean Community.

Mercosur is made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay as members. Bolivia and Chile are associate members. The Andean grouping is made up of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia.

"If he (Silva) assembles the Andean nations and Mercosur into one trading bloc, Brazil and its neighbors certainly will have better bargaining power," said David Fleischer, a political science professor at the University of Brasilia.

U.S. Treasury secretary praises Brazil team

Despite his status as Brazil's first leftist leader and a friendship with Cuban leader Fidel Castro, Silva has made efforts to show he is willing to work with Washington.

He met last week with Treasury Secretary John Snow, who praised members of Silva's fiscally moderate financial team for dealing with the country's economic problems.

Many investors feared Silva would enact unorthodox economic policies that could lead Brazil to default on its massive foreign debt like its southern neighbor, Argentina. Since Silva's January 1 inauguration, those concerns have evaporated.

The presidential meetings between Silva and other South American leaders also appear designed to give Brazil a higher profile on the international front. Silva said over the weekend that the United Nations should be reformed.

He said the Security Council should be expanded beyond the current five permanent members -- United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia and China.

The visits to Brazil also show that Silva, the country's first elected leftist president, has a more aggressive approach on international relations than his predecessors.

Traditionally Brazil has been timid in conducting foreign affairs, but Silva has given a great emphasis to Latin America since taking office, Fleischer said.

Venezuela is a beautiful country with beautiful people

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, April 29, 2003 By: Oscar Heck

VHeadline.com commentarist Oscar Heck writes: Now is a good time to bring up some more examples of the anti-Chavez opposition’s lack of human decency, questionable intentions/tactics and their self-named “democratic” and “civilized” actions.

A few days ago, I received another unkind word from an avid anti-Chavez person, “…slimeball…” A little while back, I received the following from a person associated with a Miami-based anti-Chavez organization: “… and if you are such an adament Chavez supporter, bewarned: considering what they have done to our country, a "bullet in the head" might be appropriate for some Chavistas!”

Recently, another person has received threats simply for advertising that does not support the Venezuelan opposition. The “threateners” apparently identified themselves as anti-Chavez people and "heroes of Plaza Altamira" (where a handful of renegade anti-Chavez military camped out for many weeks demanding the resignation of Chavez).

A friend of mine (who also does not support the opposition) received this recently (names have been changed): “Sam o Sam, where for art thou, Sam? In Canada still? Honing your b******t in mother Russia? You'll be found by and by Sammy … Sleep tight, for t'won't be tonight, but by and by, baby Sam, by and by, Bye-bye...and see you real soon ... sweet pants ... by and by...”

Now, as I have mentioned on many occasions, I am anti-opposition. Why?

Because of the without-conscience actions that they have taken against Venezuela in their panic-stricken illogical attempt to oust the democratically-elected Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez.

Unfortunately, the Venezuelan opposition often appears to assume that if one is against the opposition (as I am), then one is pro-Chavez.

This reminds me of the USA stance … if you are not with us, then you are against us ... and the funny thing is that many opposition supporters are also avid USA supporters.

What never ceases to amaze me is that the opposition continuously calls itself “civilized” and “democratic” ... is it civilized and democratic to threaten people, including with death?

Carlos Ortega publicly called for the death of Chavez while in Florida, where he apparently said, “Muerte al tirano!” (Death to the tyrant!). Isn’t it against the law (in the USA) to call for the death of someone in public?

Perhaps not … Bush and gang have publicly called for the death of undesirable “anti-democratic dictators and organizations!” Hmm.

Is this the kind of “democracy” that Venezuela needs?

A “democracy” led by the opposition … an opposition which has little respect for others ... an opposition which has no qualms about harassing Tarek Saab and family in a public restaurant ... an opposition which threatens people with death simply for not being on their side ... an opposition which willingly invites assistance from the USA (PNAC and NED included?), to topple Chavez (a democratically-elected President) ... an opposition which believes that maybe some Chavez supporters deserve a bullet in the head?

Very democratic and civilized opposition!

The weirdest thing is that the majority of the opposition people are well-educated (engineers, doctors, lawyers, business professionals, etc.). Why would such educated people resort to threats and actions of sedition, sabotage and treason?

The opposition is also openly backed by the Venezuelan church. Why would the Venezuelan church back a slew of uncivilized, anti-democratic and criminal opposition people such as Carlos Fernandez, Carlos Ortega and Juan Fernandez (not to mention the thousands of crazed supporters)?

From what I understand, it is apparently because they (church and opposition) fear that Chavez will turn Venezuela into another Communist country. My opinion is that this “reason” is simply a pretext to cover up the real reasons!

What are the real reasons?

  • To maintain monopolies in the area of food and drug (pharmaceuticals) manufacturing, imports and distribution … which gives them the power to control the Venezuelan economy to the point where this control supersedes democratic political will. (e.g., the stoppage)

  • To maintain the status quo with regards to a corrupt and “mafia”-style legal and judicial system … allowing those with money to conveniently escape justice. (e.g., Carlos Ortega, Perdro Carmona, Juan Fernandez, Carlos Fernandez and many more.)

  • To maintain the 80% in a continuous state of ignorance and exclusion from the benefits of Venezuelan society. (e.g., keep the minimum wage low enough to keep the poorer Venezuelans too busy working just-to-survive so that they have no more energy, will or desire to further their studies or to seek methods of improving their condition with the help of government structures.)

  • To maintain media control with the intent of brainwashing people at will. (e.g., Globovision, RCTV, Venevision, TeleVen, El Nacional, El Universal etc, during the April 11-13, 2002 coup and during the stoppage.)

  • To hide the fact that the majority of the 20% are classists and racists (whether intentional or not). (e.g., “Los monitos” live in “los cerros.” i.e. monkeys -ú dark-skinned people or blacks -- live in the hills … referring to the slums.)

  • To continue extravagant life styles, and this includes the Venezuelan church mafia. (e.g., travel abroad regularly, vacations in Los Roques, shopping trips to Miami, ownership of several residences throughout the country and abroad, sending children to study in the USA or Canada … all this whilst paying their servants and maids often less that 120$ per month, a completely undignifying wage.)

When I speak against the Venezuelan opposition (which includes the majority of the mid-to-upper classes ú the 20%) I am not speaking against “Venezuelans”. The mid-to-upper classes want the world to believe them when they say “we, the Venezuelans,” insinuating that they are representative of “Venezuelans.” Unfortunately, when spoken by the opposition, “we, the Venezuelans” is not even close to being representative of “all Venezuelans.”

“All Venezuelans” would be better represented by the majority 80% … mostly hardworking people who have been exploited by much of the 20% for several generations.

Note:

I have been accused by opposition supporters of generalizing about the 20%. I am generalizing to a certain degree. Why? Because my experience -- in the last 27 years -- regarding this sector of Venezuelan society has been that the vast majority of the 20% can be grouped thus.

Over the years I have dealt with and courted Venezuelan ambassadors, consuls, diplomats, generals, artists, heads of church, bank owners, lawyers, engineers, and businessmen. As well, I have had the pleasure of living and working with Venezuelans in Caracas area slums and in small villages in the countryside.

Responding recently to opposition accusations that Chavez’s bodyguards are Cuban, Venezuelan Ambassador Sanchez apparently stated, “… I think it is a case of racism ... for the first time, one sees not just one black person among the President's bodyguards but several and people think there aren't any blacks in Venezuela and that all Cubans are black …"

Venezuela is a beautiful country with beautiful people.

When I say beautiful people I am referring to the majority of Venezuelans, including some from the 20%.

Oscar Heck oscar@vheadline.com

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