By RICHARD BLOOM The Globe and Mail-INVESTMENT REPORTER Monday, June 2, 2003 - Page B14

Closing Markets

Friday, Jun. 6 S&P/TSX 12.01 7046.88 DJIA 21.49 9062.79 S&P500 -2.38 987.76 Nasdaq -18.59 1627.42 Venture 7.07 1100.4 DJUK 2.18 170.63 Nikkei 128.64 8785.87 HSeng 55.62 9694.63 DJ Net -1.25 56.95 Gold (NY) -5.00 364.50 Oil (NY) +0.54 31.28 CRB Index +1.27 237.43 30 yr Can. -0.03 4.96 30 yr U.S. -0.01 4.38 CDN$ buys US$ -0.0076 0.7386 Yen +0.0000 87.7700 Euro +0.0030 0.6316 US$ buys CDN$ +0.0139 1.3540 Yen +1.2300 118.8400 Euro +0.0127 0.8551

TORONTO -- The deadly SARS virus doesn't scare Mark Mobius -- and neither does what seems to be an endless wave of political and economic uncertainty around the world.

Welcome to the world of emerging markets -- one which Mr. Mobius, who runs Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s emerging markets fund, says is ripe for solid returns. However, you must have the stomach for some wild swings, he cautioned.

"The best policy is to buy when things look bad, when newspaper headlines are saying bad things about emerging markets because that's when prices are depressed and there are opportunities," he said in an interview last week.

Mr. Mobius, based in Singapore and known as one of the world's authorities on emerging markets, says he's been buying Asian stocks throughout the SARS outbreak.

"Asia is particularly interesting because the depressing effect of SARS is making a lot of those stocks attractive," he said during an interview.

Shares of Singapore Airlines Ltd., Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. of Hong Kong, and TravelSky Technology Ltd., a Chinese aviation and tourism software maker -- all names that many money managers might not have touched -- are buying opportunities, Mr. Mobius said. While those companies' profits and stock price runups likely won't come overnight, returns through 2004 and 2005 could be impressiv, he said.

Like his funds, Mr. Mobius, 63, is truly global. A week ago, he was in New York City. Last Wednesday, he was in Russia. Thursday he was in Toronto (where he conducted the interview for this story). Friday, he was in Finland.

The Templeton emerging markets fund was launched in October, 1991. Although its one-year return was down 17.4 per cent as of April 30, it still exceeded the performance of the sector's benchmark, Morgan Stanley Capital International's (MSCI) emerging markets free index, which was down 21.46 per cent. The Templeton fund is up 2.8 per cent from 10 years ago, while the MSCI index is up only 2 per cent. Mr. Mobius's fund jumped 7.4 per cent in April and another 1.4 per cent in May, buoyed by the rise in stock prices partly on the back of the U.S. dollar's fall.

Mr. Mobius said the combination of low interest rates and the sliding U.S. dollar is good news for shares in countries with debt in greenbacks. Debtor countries with U.S.-dollar debts, "which got them into trouble in the first place," will now find their debts easier to pay, he said. For example, he said, many countries with loans at an interest rate of of about 8 per cent can now refinance, and repay at 3 per cent.

"What it means is countries will begin to dig themselves out, and companies will be able to dig themselves out.

Mr. Mobius said he's also bullish on Turkish stocks, which were volatile ahead of the U.S.-led war in Iraq as investors speculated whether the country would support the campaign, and how the Turkish economy would be affected.

He also likes South Africa. He cited the recent rise in its currency, the Rand, and the successful international expansion of many of its major corporations.

But risks caused by political turmoil in Africa are too great to lure him into other countries in the continent, Mr. Mobius said.

He's also not investing in Venezuela, which has been hammered by civil unrest. He has only a small stake in Argentina, which is in the process of reviving economic stability after a recent massive currency crisis and debt default.

The mere appearance of a political crisis doesn't necessarily spur Mr. Mobius to sell.

In Brazil, it was feared that recently inaugurated President Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva would introduce left-leaning policies and spark a drop in the value of the country's currency, stocks and bonds. "We were buying when everyone was afraid of Lula. That's worked out very nicely," Mr. Mobius said.

He hinted that despite emerging opportunities within emerging markets, investors must buckle their seatbelts when deciding to climb aboard. "Growth -- that's what [it's] all about," Mr. Mobius said. "The countries are growing, the markets are growing, that's the main story. There is volatility, just like in any market. The swings can be sometimes quite wide."

Some emerging markets stocks that he's buying right now include:

Banco Bradesco SA of Bazil. With the recovery of that country's economy under way, Mr. Mobius said he expects banks to do quite well. He called Bradesco "one of the more efficient banks," with "a very sophisticated" computerized system and a strong retail base.

Kimberly Clark de Mexico SA de CV of Mexico. The country's largest producer of paper products is highly profitable and receives technical support from its operations in the United States. But more important, Mr. Mobius added, it has a strong manufacturing and marketing base in Mexico.

San Miguel Corp. of the Philippines. San Miguel is one of the largest beverage makers in the country, and also has growing operations throughout Asia.

Hyundai Motor Co Ltd. of South Korea. Mr. Mobius said the auto maker is "very successful," is beefing up operations in China, and is a major player globally.

Akbank of Turkey. Mr. Mobius said Turkish interest rates are likely to begin to fall as the government tries to boost the economy. Akbank has "a lot" of government bonds in its vaults, which will churn higher capital gains when rates go down, he added.

Nigeria: FG Directs Oil Firms to Raise Output

Posted by click at 12:16 AM in OPEC

This Day News, Nigeria By Mike Oduniyi

The Federal Government may have directed oil producing companies to raise output substantially up to Nigeria's capacity this month, in a bid to make up for the production losses to violence in the Niger Delta and the attendant revenue loss.

Nigeria's oil production had been reduced to around 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to its officially assigned quota of 2.018 million by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), since March this year when communal violence broke out in Warri, Delta State.

While oil industry sources disclosed that they had been told to raise production to full capacity, the Department of Petroleum Resources (the nation's oil industry monitors) said at the weekend that companies with spare capacity had only been directed to make up for the losses from the violence-prone areas.

According to a senior DPR official, Nigeria has struggled to remain within her OPEC limit even though she was still running below the quota.

"We had a lot of crisis in May. As at Friday, we were still running slightly below our quota," said the official, adding, "what we do is to give additional quota to companies with spare capacity if a company can't meet up with quota."

OPEC meets on June 11, this year to review its new ceiling of 25.4 million bpd. Officials however, said that effectively, there was still no serious attachment to OPEC quota following the Middle East crisis while the effect of the Venezuela crisis was yet to wane on the market.

Nigeria has an installed production capacity of about 2.6 million bpd. Its new OPEC quota effective June 1, this year was 2.092 million. However, in the aftermath of the Warri crisis, industry officials said that about 300,000 bpd of crude production was still shut in by Shell, ChevronTexaco and Total, almost over two months ago.

In monetary terms, this translates into a daily loss of $6.6 million revenue, given the $22 per barrel official selling price for Nigeria's crude oil.

Furthermore, income from condensate production, (which does not fall under OPEC quota application) has been halted following the fire at ExxonMobil Oso Condensate production platform offshore Akwa Ibom, early last month.

Oil exports account for more than 90 percent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said in its 2002 Annual Reports and Account that following a cut in Nigeria's OPEC quota last year, the country's total exports declined to 545.1 million barrels compared to 674.9 million barrels in 2001.

Consequently, revenue stood at N496.3 billion, declining by N438 billion when compared to 2001 earnings.

Meanwhile, the United States of America (USA) remained the largest importer of Nigeria's crude oil. The CBN report said the country's import accounted for 40.3 per cent of Nigeria's total oil exports last year.

Nigeria, according to the apex bank, exported 1.66 million barrels of oil daily last year, where the value of crude exported to Asia countries, which had been on the increase since 1999, dropped to N313.1 billion from N366.0 billion in 2001.

Export of crude to the Americas decreased to 278.5 million barrels valued at N842.2 billion, from 334.9 million barrels valued at N912.7 billion in 2001.

"Similarly, the volume and value of oil exports to western Europe also fell during the review year, totalling 121.0 million barrels valued at N369.2 billion compared with 154.4 million barrels worth N420.7 billion in 2001," said the CBN.

Sunday, June 8, 2003

VICKI'S VIEW: Re-Match At The O-K Corral

Posted by click at 11:53 PM Story Archive June 9, 2003 (Page 11 of 13)

<a href=www.vallejonews.com>Vallejo News, Monday, Jun 2, 2003 By Vicki Gray

The action this week is in Benicia, where the City Council faces a shootout Wednesday with a band of Texans called Valero. And, yes, there is a Vallejo angle. Complete Story Below

VIP? Give Me a Break!

VIP? That is the so-called (by Valero) Valero Improvement Project, known to the rest of us as the Valero Expansion Project. The company's local spokesperson, Bill Tanner, who apparently adheres to the Allison Abbott school of PR (Bechtel and the LNG project), claimed in the Vallejo Times-Herald last week that "VIP is not an expansion project per se," but admits in his next sentence that "we will realize an increase of up to 10 percent in processing."

Processing what? Not the relatively clean Alaskan North Slope crude, the supply of which is dwindling, but rather new imports of dirty, sulphur-laden oil from Venezuela.

Not to worry, Tanner and his bosses in San Antonio assure us. The project will actually reduce overall emissions by 40 percent. It will even recycle Benicia wastewater and create "200-300 high wage jobs." What a deal! Sound familiar?

Trouble is, the touted emission reduction is dependent on the installation of best available technology wet scrubber -- a device that was promised when the project was unveiled a year and a half ago and in subsequent presentations to the public. Unfortunately, the requirement for such a scrubber disappeared from the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) submitted to the Benicia Planning Commission on April 28.

Benicia, however, remains a company town, and the Planning Commission voted overwhelmingly to approve a permit for the project that accepts Valero's plea for "flexibility" as to when and, indeed, whether to install the needed scrubber.

Where Are We Now? Where does that leave us? On May 8, the Commission's decision was appealed by a broad coalition of concerned Benicians, the Good Neighbor Steering Committee, backed by an even broader coalition of concerned Solanoans -- the Sierra Club, Solano Peace and Justice Coalition, West County Toxics Coalition, Solano Green Party, and, yes, Vallejo for Community Planned Renewal (VCPR).

Like Allison and her phantom "Citizens for LNG," Bill Tanner touts a "growing list of VIP supporters." Who? Plumbers and Steamfitters Local 343, the Benicia Chamber of Commerce and assorted hangers-on. Again, sound familiar?

The lines are drawn for, I'd like to say, the rematch at the O-K Corral, but more properly, a special meeting of the Benicia City Council on Wednesday, June 4. The council will vote on whether to approve the earlier Planning Commission decision.

Procedurally, Councilman Pierre Bidou, a Valero employee, must recuse himself on this issue. In the past he has self-interpreted that recusal requirement extraordinarily loosely; i.e., he has spoken to the issue and helped frame the vote before recusing himself from the actual vote. That is not sufficient. He should keep his mouth shut during the entire discussion of the issue or, better yet, absent himself from the room.

Valero itself, through Mr. Tanner, has displayed an arrogance on this issue worthy of a Bechtel. In his May 25 "My Turn" piece in the Times-Herald, for example, he claims that "the road to high environmental performance, conservation and efficiency does not necessarily require governmental mandates. VIP is a voluntary project, not required by law. The economic and environmental incentives already exist ... ."

Oh? Just three days earlier, Tanner told Times-Herald reporter Matthias Gaffni: "They need to understand that we're a business, and operating a scrubber, we don't make money. It's a $60 million investment, and it doesn't make us a plugged nickel." So much for the economic incentives on behalf of the environment for this $30 billion Texas conglomerate.

The Vallejo Angle? This is not just a Benicia issue, but rather a regional issue -- just like LNG and the refineries just across the Strait in Contra Costa. About 80 percent of the time, the prevailing winds will blow the pollution toward the 200,000 in Fairfield and Vacaville; and, during the remaining 20 percent of the time, Valero's increased pollution will waft over Benicia and, yes, Vallejo.

For this latter reason, I hope VCPR will present Vallejo's concerns to the Benicia City Council, just as Benicia's Downwind Coalition supported VCPR before the Vallejo City Council on LNG. If it made any mistakes, the Good Neighbor Steering Committee erred in accepting Valero's early vague promises. On the positive side, the GNSC has held the Bay Area Air Quality Management District's toes to the fire on flares and the regional impact of refinery emissions. That is something we should all support.

This is, to be sure, an opinionated abbreviation of the facts. I urge you to learn more before Wednesday night. How? Just hit the Valero Project button on BeniciaNews.com, call up Matthias Gaffni's May 22 story on timesheraldonline.com, or, best yet, contact Dana Dean, chair of GNSC at (707) 747-9454.

What's Your Opinion?

Here's what others are saying:

• Interesting Editorial From: Joan Gibbons On: June 02, 2003 09:06 AM OPINION Our view - East Bay Business Times - June 3, 2003

Approve upgrade

Valero Energy Corp.'s planned $140 million upgrade of its Benicia refinery not only will increase efficiency and keep the plant competitive, it will reduce emissions and conserve water.

What's not to like?

Nothing. And that's why the Benicia City Council on June 4 should reject demands for further study and add-ons that would, in effect, kill the project by pumping up the price tag.

The Planning Commission approved Valero's plans on April 28. Opponents appealed the commission's certification of the project's environmental impact report to the City Council.

The purported flaws in the environmental study are a canard. There is no reason to believe significant impacts have been overlooked. And just in case bureaucratic and legal delays aren't enough to kill the project, opponents have tacked on demands for such unrelated benefits as a citywide beautification program.

At least the demand for an air quality monitoring system - at an estimated cost of $1 million to $5 million - has something to do with refining oil, even if the Bay Area Air Quality Management District says it isn't necessary to keep tabs on Valero

Finally, the demand for construction of a second power plant at the refinery, which Valero estimates would cost $40 million, is at best unrealistic.

More than half of the $140 million upgrade cost will be devoted to environmental gear that will make the refinery a better corporate neighbor. That's a major - and sufficient - contribution to the community's welfare.

The City Council should let the project proceed. So should the opponents, who, despite their public protestations, appear to be more concerned about building a political power base than protecting the environment.

• Here's another editorial From: Jason On: June 02, 2003 09:11 AM Vacaville Reporter

May 30, 2003 Not-so-good neighbors Group trying to derail plan that is good for environment, economy

A puzzling and troubling peril in Solano County's port city of Benicia has emerged as an upstart environmental group needlessly tries to hamstring one of the region's top employers and community partners.

Valero Energy Corp. wants to upgrade its refinery to reduce air pollution and enhance water quality in Benicia. It wants to enhance its facilities so that it can compete in the energy market of the future and grow its business, which in turn will grow its work force.

A so-called "good neighbor" faction, however, is throwing up spurious roadblocks.

Over 16 months the refinery owners fine-tuned the Valero Improvement Project, or VIP. The new plan has undergone the scrutiny of many public hearings and workshops, as well as a full and independent environmental review and meetings with various community groups.

VIP is a $140 million proposal designed to install environmental control equipment, recycle water and modernize and update existing oil processing equipment. The primary goal is to ensure that the refinery can be more competitive into the future by allowing the use of more lower-priced raw materials, hopefully controlling the price of fuel.

What is important to remember is that this is a voluntary approach, something Valero is willing to do in response to a new dilemma it faces - the decline Alaskan crude oil.

In response, Valero has begun to look for ways to supplement oil from Alaska with oil from elsewhere. That means the refinery likely will use heavier raw materials. These alternative-source crude oils have more contaminants.

VIP has been endorsed by business, labor and more mainline environmental organizations like the Bay Planning Coalition and the Napa-Solano Audubon Society, leading the city's Planning Commission to approve the permit.

Much of the controversy focuses on a $70 million "wet scrubber" to process the sour crudes from Latin America, which will reduce overall air emissions, especially from the pollutant-laden feedstock. But the environmentalists want Valero to install the scrubber sooner, rather than on a timetable that coincides with processing the dirtier crude.

That, of course, is not a sensible business approach and Valero has balked. And it is easy to see why.

If the Benicia-based Good Neighbor Steering wants to be good neighbors, then they should work with the refinery and city officials, not fight them. They should see the job creation that can occur, and the environmental benefits of having an upgraded refinery in their community.

What they want to do now makes no sense - economically or environmentally.

• Here's what the legitmate news media is saying From: Phillip Isner On: June 02, 2003 09:19 AM Dear reading public: here's an article from the Business Times from 6/2/2003. Interesting discussion politics at the end of the article.

Valero: Delays could kill $140M Benicia upgrades Alan Doyle, Business Times

Without an unlikely last-minute deal between refinery executives and environmentalists before a June 4 City Council meeting, Valero Energy Corp.'s $140 million proposed Benicia upgrade is in danger of being canceled, refinery officials say.

There's a growing likelihood Valero will scrap the project rather than incur additional expense from more delays in getting permission for the "Valero Improvement Project" proposed 18 months ago.

The VIP project, as the company has dubbed the upgrade, encompasses a cluster of renovations and expansions that Valero says it needs to complete over the next six years to remain competitive by processing a higher percentage of "sour" or more pollutant-laden crudes.

The Benicia refinery, with a throughput capacity of 165,000 barrels per day, provides about 25 percent of the Bay Area's gasoline and jet fuel. Valero says it must be able to switch to a greater percentage of Latin American crudes as cleaner Alaska North Slope supplies dwindle and become more expensive.

Valero says it can complete many of the individual components of upgrade without overall approval, but it would not be able to install a wet scrubber that it needs to switch to less costly crudes. That would hinder its ability to compete against other East Bay refiners and cut into profits.

Valero says approval of the project would generate hundreds of jobs and millions of dollars for local government and schools facing budget cutbacks. It would also reduce air emissions.

Valero says timing is critical on the major portions of VIP projects, which must be done during major plant maintenance, or turnarounds, to control costs and production. The next major turnaround in Benicia is set for 2004.

Opponents claim the VIP environmental impact report approved April 28 by the Benicia Planning Commission is so flawed that it must be redone, which would take months and cost thousands of dollars.

Even if Benicia refinery officials wanted to slog through another round of delays, they've exhausted their budget - more than $2 million in 18 months - and additional funding from corporate headquarters isn't likely, said Bill Tanner, the Benicia refinery's community relations manager.

Tanner said fatal delays could come in three ways:

If the council doesn't wrap up proceedings at a June 4 special meeting called to consider environmentalists' appeal of the Planning Commission's April 28 approval of VIP.

If the council grants a request by an environmental coalition - Benicia's Good Neighbor Steering Committee, the Solano County Green Party and the Solano chapter of the Sierra Club - to revise and recirculate the environmental impact report on which the commission based its decision. If the council denies the appeal, but the environmental groups file suit.

A fourth uncertainty is the council vote itself. Councilman Pierre Bidou can't vote on the appeal because he's a Valero employee. That leaves four council members to vote on the environmentalists' appeal.

There are conflicting legal opinions, according to Councilman Daniel Smith, an opponent of the refinery project, whether a 2-2 vote would leave the issue in limbo or serve to affirm the Planning Commission's decision - which environmentalists already have vowed will lead to a lawsuit.

The June 4 hearing is expected to draw more than 300 people and run into the early hours of the morning.

The hearing also will serve as a test of the growing political power of the environmental movement against the backdrop of November City Council elections.

Dana Dean, the spokeswoman for the Good Neighbor Steering Committee and an officer of the local Democratic organization, has been rumored to be a potential council candidate.

"I am not running for the City Council," Dean said.

Tanner said refinery executives are willing to continue negotiations with Dean and the environmental groups until the eve of the council meeting.

"But they must realize this project must be economically viable to Valero," Tanner said. "If there are too many expenses caused by delays or add-ons, we'll walk away from it."

• Population control From: You wish! On: June 06, 2003 09:41 AM [Let me see the Conservatives cry for mandantory birth control]

That'll be a cold day in hell - don't you know the "partial birth" abortion restriction was just passed by conservatives? And they will continue their assault on abortion rights to try and make sure that women no longer have the right to privacy and control over their own bodies.

"partial birth" isn't even a medical term, it was made up by the anti-choice people.

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