By Mike Ceaser THE WASHINGTON TIMES

    CARACAS, Venezuela — The opposition forces that won a deal last week to force a new vote on the rule of President Hugo Chavez are reeling from their own success, divided about how to proceed.     Some members of the anti-Chavez coalition of media, business, union and political parties are not satisfied with the deal that provides for a recall referendum later this year, saying it is too weak and hands too much power to Chavez-dominated bodies.     But others say that at least it commits Mr. Chavez to a referendum in which the Venezuelan people may decide on his rule with all the world watching.     "It's not all we hoped for," said opposition negotiator Alejandro Armas. "But it is a step in the right direction."     The tortuously negotiated agreement, signed Thursday, commits all parties to respect the constitution, calls for disarming the civil population and — most importantly — allows for a referendum on Mr. Chavez's rule, provided the opposition fulfills certain constitutional requirements.     Significantly, the government agreed not to alter the election laws before any vote and to work to quickly designate members of a National Electoral Council, which would oversee a referendum.     "It's encouraging, but it doesn't resolve the fundamental problem," said Michael Shifter, vice president for policy at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington. "A lot of things need to be worked out."     Mr. Chavez has hailed the deal as evidence that his opponents, who overthrew him in a short-lived April 2002 coup and in December tried to force him out by shutting down the vital oil industry, were returning to the democratic path.     "It looks like [the opposition] is beginning to accept that to get rid of me they'll have to work hard in the streets and follow the constitution," he told a crowd of indigenous people in southern Venezuela last week.     The opposition accuses Mr. Chavez of ruling in an authoritarian manner, scaring off foreign investment and trying to impose Cuban-style communism.     The agreement is the crowning achievement of seven months of negotiations facilitated by Organization of American States Secretary-General Cesar Gaviria with assistance from the United Nations and former President Jimmy Carter. With the pact, the negotiations were completed, although Mr. Gaviria said he would return if necessary.     The agreement came unexpectedly, at a time when the political climate is growing more tense.     The opposition-dominated media are furiously protesting a proposed "social-responsibility law" for television and radio designed to restrict television depictions of sex and violence, which is being denounced as a veiled effort at censorship.     The opposition is also challenging a proposed law to expand the number of justices on the Supreme Justice Tribunal as an attempt by Mr. Chavez to pack the nation's highest court. The tribunal's judgments will be crucial in any dispute about the referendum process.     Meanwhile, the economy, still reeling from the opposition's two-month oil-industry shutdown, shrank 29 percent in the first quarter. Unemployment is around 25 percent, and government foreign-exchange controls have caused shortages of some imported foods and medicines.     For Mr. Chavez's mandate to be revoked in a referendum, which may be held after the midpoint of his rule, Aug. 19, his opponents will have to muster more than the 3.75 million votes that returned him to power in July 2000.     Although Mr. Chavez won with a 59 percent majority, 43 percent of Venezuela's 12 million registered voters abstained in that election. Today, with Venezuelans highly motivated and politically organized, abstention is likely to be low.     Luis Vicente Leon, director of the polling firm Datanalisis, said he expects Mr. Chavez to try to use legal mechanisms to delay any referendum and to discourage voting if one arrives.     "If the opposition motivates the people to vote, they'll beat Chavez," said Mr. Leon, who puts the president's support at 36 percent.

Exiled opposition leader to square off against rival

Posted by click at 1:50 PM Story Archive June 7, 2003 (Page 1 of 8)

AP Sunday, Jun 01, 2003,Page 7

An exile accused of treason will compete against an ally of President Hugo Chavez for the right to lead Venezuela's labor movement at the UN' annual labor conference starting on Tuesday.

Carlos Ortega, head of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation, fled to Costa Rica after leading a two-month general strike that failed to oust Chavez earlier this year.

Ortega squares off against Orlando Chirinos, leader of the government-supported National Workers Union, at the International Labor Organization assembly in Geneva. The gathering runs through June 19.

It's the first time since Venezuela became a democracy in 1958 that the 65-year-old workers confederation, or CTV, won't lead Venezuela's official labor delegation.

Citing the strike and alleged fraud in CTV elections in 2001, Chavez's government tapped the newly formed Workers Union, or UNT, to represent Venezuelan unions.

Ortega hopes the ILO will withhold recognition of Chirinos' group, which it sees as another move by Chavez to assert his leftist government's control over Venezuelan society.

"The government is risking having the UNT expelled from the ILO meeting," said CTV leader Froilan Barrios.

ILO officials were not immediately available for comment Friday.

At stake is the welfare of millions of workers and retirees who are owed millions of dollars in back pay and pensions. Venezuela's minimum wage is 247,600 bolivars (US$155). It costs about 400,000 bolivars (US$250) each month to feed a family of four.

From exile, the burly Ortega remains a hero to many who accuse Chavez of imposing an authoritarian regime and bankrupting the economy.

As former head of Venezuela's largest oil workers union, Ortega handed Chavez his first defeat by leading a successful oil strike for higher pay in 2000.

Later that year, Chavez won a referendum to force the CTV to hold internal elections -- elections bitterly opposed by the ILO as government interference in private union affairs. Ortega handily beat Chavez's candidate; Chavez accused Ortega of electoral fraud.

Last year, Ortega led a general strike that snowballed into a two-day coup in April. He tried again in December and repeatedly predicted Chavez would resign.

Venezuelans paid dearly for the strike. Organized with Venezuela's largest business association, it momentarily paralyzed the world's No. 5 oil exporter. It cost Venezuela US$7.5 billion and contributed to a 29 percent economic contraction in the first quarter this year. Chavez fired more than 18,000 strikers from the state-owned oil monopoly.

Chavez ordered Ortega's arrest on treason charges, which can carry 26-year prison terms. Ortega fled.

Critics accused the CTV of again putting politics above worker rights -- a reputation it gained over decades of cronyism before Chavez's 1998 election. Workers were charged by union bosses to get jobs while leaders lived privileged lives.

Venezuela says could cut oil output by 100,000 bpd

Posted by click at 1:48 PM in Unreliable

Reuters, 05.31.03, 5:49 PM ET

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela's Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said Saturday that the OPEC member could cut oil production by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) if the cartel decides to reduce output by around one million barrels at its June policy meeting. "In this case, talking about a cut of an additional million barrels, for Venezuela means about 100,000 barrels per day," the minister told state news agency Venpres. Ramirez said earlier this week said that OPEC could cut production by up to one million barrels should it decide to reduce quotas to keep prices within preferred band. OPEC is scheduled to meet on June 11 in Qatar to decide on production policy and rival exporters -- Russia, Norway, Mexico, Oman, Angola, Egypt and Syria -- will also attend the Doha conference. The cartel is concerned that post-war resumption of Iraq's production will cut into prices. Members agreed in April to cut production by 2 million bpd beginning June 1, after several cartel members earlier in the year increased output ahead of the invasion of Iraq. OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva said last week that the cartel could consider output cuts to keep oil prices within its preferred price range of $22 to $28 per barrel. Venezuela, the world's No. 5 crude exporter, produces around 3.1 million bpd, according to government figures. Some analysts estimate output is closer to 2.6 million bpd as the state oil firm PDVSA struggles to completely recover from a two-month strike against President Hugo Chavez.

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