April 23, 2003 By <a href=www.businessreport.co.za>Sapa-AFP

Vienna - Wary of a glut on the world oil market, Opec is ready to cut production to ensure oil prices remain in its target range of $22-$28 a barrel, Opec ministers said upon arriving for a meeting of the powerful cartel.

"Tomorrow we will make sure we keep the market where it is in the band," Saudi Arabian oil minister Ali al-Nuaimi told journalists in Vienna, a day ahead of a meeting in the Austrian capital of the 11-nation Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"We are concerned if we don't take some steps that an oil glut may form in two, three months," Al-Nouaimi said.

He did not provide details but an Opec source had said Tuesday that the cartel was looking to cut production in order to keep oil prices from falling too far and would call on its members to respect the 24.5 million barrels per day (bpd) production quota, which is currently being exceeded by some two million bpd.

Opec should move first by getting its members to respect the quota, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Oil Minister Obeid bin Saif al-Nasseri said Wednesday.

"I think we have to tackle first compliance, then we shall see if there is a need to cut," he said upon arriving in Vienna.

"Obviously there is oversupply in the market," Al-Nasseri said.

"I think we have to discuss the situation first and analyze the size of supply in the market then we have to take the right action," he said.

Opec had announced in January an output increase, raising its combined ceiling by 6.5 percent to 24.5 million bpd, to curb a surge in prices triggered by a strike in Venezuela and the threat of war in Iraq.

Opec is producing some two million bpd over this quota, ministers have said.

Al-Nouaimi said that if the cartel had not increased production beyond even the quota as war with Iraq grew nearer "prices would have shot up."

He said that "you have to give Opec some credit, a very big credit," recalling that analysts had feared as the war approached in March that prices could shoot to $100 a barrel . In fact they had stayed below $40 a barrel.

"Opec is healthy," Al-Nouaimi said.

The problem now is that prices are falling, although they are still in the high range of the band.

Oil prices were slightly firmer in Asian trading Wednesday with the market dominated by uncertainty over whether OPEC would cut output quotas, dealers said.

In Singapore, the benchmark New York light sweet crude contract for June delivery was being traded at $28.07 a barrel in after-hours trading, up from its close of $27.99 in New York Tuesday.

"There is no clear sign about what OPEC will decide to do," a dealer with a Singapore trading firm said.

A part of the uncertainty is determining when Iraqi oil exports are most likely to resume and how seriously the mystery virus SARS will affect the already sluggish world economy.

There are also fresh concerns over supplies from Nigeria, where violence has flared following a disputed presidential election.

Nigerian soldiers shot dead eight opposition supporters after coming under fire during an election-day protest at the weekend, a police spokesman told AFP on Tuesday.

Last month around a third of all Nigeria's oil exports were halted due to civil and political unrest.

Dealers said crude prices could fall to $26-$27 a barrel if OPEC decided to keep production levels at current levels.

In any case, OPEC member Iraq will not be represented at Thursday's meeting.

Iraq's seat will be vacant as the United States has chosen not to appoint a representative to attend, the State Department said in Washington Tuesday.

"Coalition governments will not take any actions that would prejudice the decisions of any future government and have taken no action with respect to Iraq's participation in OPEC which is an issue for the future Iraqi government," said Lynn Cassel, a department spokeswoman. - Sapa-AFP

<a href=reuters.com>Reuters Wed April 23, 2003 07:39 AM ET By Robert Evans

GENEVA (Reuters) - International trade in goods looks at best to be heading for only minimal growth this year, the World Trade Organisation said on Wednesday.

Even this could be thrown into doubt by fallout from the Iraq war, the SARS virus and overall world economic gloom, the organisation said in its annual spring report.

Rapid trade expansion over decades has been a motor creating jobs and wealth in the global economy, but the report says initial signs suggest goods volume will increase by less than three percent this year after a poor 2.5 percent expansion last year and a shrinkage in 2001.

"Considerable uncertainty clouds trade growth prospects for 2003," it said. "The downside risks on predictions for 2003 are large." Even the expected rise would rest on more production and consumer demand from now on, which WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi described as far from assured.

The 2002 total trade value of $6.24 billion marked a turnaround from a 2001 trade decline of one percent, the first year of shrinkage in some 20 years after record growth of 12 percent in 2000. Strong demand in the United States and larger Asian economies drove last year's upturn, but Europe and Latin American performances were sluggish. GROWING UNCERTAINTY

Director-General Supachai, former deputy prime minister of Thailand, said the figures reflected growing world economic and political uncertainty, which could give rise to instability.

To counter this, he suggested governments accelerate efforts to complete trade liberalization talks launched in Doha, Qatar, in November 2001 and due to establish a new world trade treaty by January 1, 2005. International trade rules are based on multilateral negotiations involving all 146 member states.

The World Bank has said the Doha Round negotiations, if successful, could inject a huge boost into the world economy, but negotiators have missed important deadlines and many trade analysts say the talks are likely to drag on well into the second half of the decade.

The WTO report, written before the U.S.- British invasion of Iraq, suggested the decision by the two powers to go it alone could have serious repercussions on trade politics and so endanger global governance through bodies like the WTO.

And erosion of confidence in global institutions might encourage closed groupings, or blocs, of trading states and inward-looking policies such as protectionism.

Last week Rubens Ricupero, Supachai's counterpart head of the U.N.'s trade and development agency UNCTAD, said trade regionalism was potentially even more dangerous than protectionism especially for poorer countries. And many trade analysts fear a trend to regional trade pacts could become a landslide. CHINA, INDIA DOING WELL

In its detailed figures for 2002, the WTO report said goods trade by Asian developing countries expanded about 12.5 percent, with China hitting 20 percent growth and India 15 percent. Japan's growth was only three percent.

China joined the WTO at the end of 2001 and overtook Britain last year to become the world's fifth largest single trader behind the United States, Germany, Japan and France. Britain was sixth and Canada seventh.

U.S. exports shrank nearly four percent but imports surged three percent, driven by consumer spending and tax cuts. Western Europe -- the 15-nation European Union and its four-nation EFTA partners including Switzerland -- saw goods imports fall 0.5 percent and exports rise 0.6 percent.

Argentina's economic crisis, political instability in Venezuela and uncertainty in Brazil ahead of elections together badly affected Latin America, where imports dropped five percent as exports rose two percent.

But there was a brighter picture in the trade of commercial services. The WTO report said the 2002 value of services exchanges covering areas like banking, telecommunications, travel and tourism rose five percent to $1.54 billion.

SCOTT HAGGETT <a href=www.canada.com>CanWest News Service Wednesday, April 23, 2003

Cites high petroleum prices, strong demand. Greenpeace protesters demonstrate outside company's annual meeting in Toronto yesterday

Imperial Oil Ltd. said yesterday its first-quarter profit surged to a record as Canada's biggest oil company reaped the benefit of high petroleum prices and strong demand for gasoline and heating.

Toronto-based Imperial, which operates Esso gas stations, said its earnings in the quarter rose nearly five-fold compared with the same period last year, reaching $538 million, or $1.42 a share, on revenue of $5.48 billion. In the first quarter of 2002, profit was $110 million, or 29 cents, on revenue of $3.49 billion.

The skyrocketing profit came as oil reached a record high as the looming war in Iraq and turmoil in Venezuela threatened supplies and a cold winter boosted natural-gas prices to more than double the average of last year's first quarter.

"First-quarter earnings were the best in company history, contrasting sharply with the extraordinarily weak results of the previous year," said Tim Hearn, the company's chief executive.

Imperial, a 70-per-cent-owned arm of ExxonMobil Corp. - the world's biggest oil company - held its annual meeting in Toronto yesterday as protesters from Greenpeace, angry with the firm's opposition to the Kyoto Protocol to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, demonstrated outside.

A motion calling for the company to detail potential liabilities for greenhouse gases was defeated, as 95.4 per cent of shareholders voted against.

The company's refining division posted a $139-million profit in the quarter, up from a $37-million loss last year as profit margins increased.

Calgary Herald

Forbes.com-Reuters, 04.23.03, 6:06 AM ET

MILAN, April 23 (Reuters) - A $480 million project to develop Venezuela's Corocoro oilfield has been launched, one of the partners in the project, Italy's biggest oil and gas group Eni <ENI.MI>, said on Wednesday.

The Corocoro field in the country's Gulf of Paria West area is expected to reach output of 55,000 barrels per day of crude oil by 2005.

Eni said in a statement that the Corocoro field's development would allow it boost production by 14,500 bpd and strengthen its position in Venezuela where it also operates the Dacion oilfield in the eastern part of the country.

The partners in the venture are ConocoPhillips (nyse: COP - news - people) with a 32.5 percent stake, Venezuela's state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) with 35 percent, Eni with 26 percent and Taiwan's OPIC with 6.5 percent, Eni said.

Venezuela, world's No. 5 crude exporter, has been trying to revive an oil industry hit by a crippling anti-government general strike late last year and earlier this year.

Forbes.com-Reuters, 04.23.03, 6:02 AM ET By Robert Evans

GENEVA, April 23 (Reuters) - World goods trade, whose steady expansion over decades has been a motor of the global economy, looks headed at best for only minimal growth this year, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Wednesday.

Even this could be thrown into doubt by fallout from the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the spread of the deadly SARS epidemic, and overall world economic gloom, according to the body's annual spring report.

"Considerable uncertainty clouds trade growth prospects for 2003," said the report. Initial signs suggested world trade volume would increase by less than three percent after an already poor 2.5 pct rise last year.

But even this would depend on a pickup in global production and consumer demand from April onwards -- a development that WTO Director-General Supachai Panitchpakdi suggested was far from certain in the present world political and economic climate.

"The downside risks on predictions for 2003 are large," the report declared.

The figures for 2002 marked a slight turnround from the disaster year of 2001 when trade declined, by one percent, for the first time in some 20 years -- after a record growth of 12 percent in the boom year of 2000.

The report said last year's upturn -- to a total value of $6.24 billion -- had been driven by strong demand in the United States and the bigger Asian economies, but was held back by a sluggish performance in Europe and Latin America.

GROWING UNCERTAINTY

Supachai, a former deputy prime minister and economy minister of Thailand, said the figures reflected "growing economic and political uncertainty in the world today" which could give rise to even greater global instability.

One way to tackle this, he suggested, would be for governments to speed up efforts to complete the deeply troubled Doha Round of liberalisation talks launched in November 2001 and due to end with a new world trade treaty by January 1, 2005.

The negotiations -- which the World Bank says could give a huge boost to the world economy if successful -- have already missed some important deadlines and many analysts say they are likely to drag on well into the second half of the decade.

The WTO report, written before the controversial U.S.- British invasion of Iraq last month which toppled President Saddam Hussein, suggested that the decision by the two powers to go it alone could have serious repercussions on trade politics.

It said the intervention -- launched without the approval of the United Nations and in the face of opposition from major powers like Germany, France and Russia -- could endanger the system of global governance through bodies like the WTO.

"The erosion of confidence in global institutions could encourage the creation of like-minded blocs" -- diplomatic phrasing for closed groupings of trading states -- "and inward- looking policies" -- or protectionism -- said the report.

International trade rules are currently set in multilateral negotiations involving all WTO member-countries, presently totalling 146. But many trade analysts fear the current trend to regional trade pacts could become a landslide.

Last week Rubens Ricupero, Supachai's counterpart at the head of the U.N.'s trade and development agency UNCTAD, said trade regionalism was potentially even more dangerous, especially for poorer countries, than protectionism.

CHINA, INDIA DOING WELL

For 2002, the WTO report said, goods trade by developing countries in Asia -- excluding Japan -- grew by about 12.5 percent, with China hitting 20 percent growth and India up 15 percent. Japan's growth was only three percent.

China, which joined the WTO at the end of 2001, at the same time overtook Britain last year to become the world's fifth largest single trader behind the United States, Germany, Japan and France. Britain was sixth and Canada seventh.

U.S. exports declined by nearly four percent, but imports surged by three percent, driven by consumer spending and tax cuts. Western Europe -- the 15-nation European Union and its four-nation EFTA partners including Switzerland -- saw goods imports down by 0.5 percent and exports up by 0.6 percent.

Latin America was badly affected by the crisis in Argentina, political instability in Venezuela and uncertainty in Brazil as it moved towards its autumn president election, the report said. The region's imports declined by five percent while exports rose by two percent.

There was a brighter picture for exchanges of commercial services, according to the WTO. The value of service trade -- covering area like banking, telecommunications, travel and tourism -- rose five percent to a total of $1.54 billion.