<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 21, 2003 By: VenAmCham

VenAmCham's Jose Gregorio Pineda (chief economist) and Jose Gabriel Angarita (economist) write: Planning Minister Felipe Perez announced his preliminary forecasts for 2003, predicting that the Venezuelan economy will contract by 3% to 5% and inflation will come to 27%. These estimates reflect a serious underestimation in comparison with those offered by many specialists, including those of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts a 17% plunge of economic activity and a 40% inflation rate.

The current trend in the Venezuelan economy, marked by the closing of industrial companies, a massive growth of unemployment, worsening poverty indicators, economic policies (such as price and exchange controls) detrimental to productive enterprises, barriers to foreign trade, and other distortions, could not result in anything but a deep contraction of Gross Domestic Product, to an even greater extent than in 2002.

One of the strongest explanatory factors in this highly adverse scenario for the Venezuelan economy is the systematic refusal to distribute foreign exchange to the different industries, under the exchange control system. Until the foreign exchange market is restored, even if with strict rationing, the national private will continue to be in serious difficulty, and the inevitable outcome will be higher unemployment, a deeper economic contraction, and a smaller private share in national product.

At the same time, the different components of aggregate demand contribute to the prevailing negative expectations on the course of economic activity in 2003. One of those components is a drastic decline of final household consumption, which is suffering the impact of falling real salary levels; this trend diminishes access to goods and services and undercuts well-being throughout society. Internal and external private investment have fallen considerably in recent years, and are now very skittish, given the unfavorable economic expectations and policies. Finally, public spending contracted drastically in the early months of the year (and is not expected to recover in real terms in the rest of the year) due to the fiscal crisis.

The only way to reverse the economic failure toward which we are moving, since political and social conflict have been partially limited, is a radical change of direction for economic policy. Venezuela needs policies that put in motion a plan for sustained economic growth based on a revival of national industry through the free operation of the external and internal markets, thereby stimulating the creation of new jobs, generating a favorable climate for investment of capital and maintaining price stability, among other policies designed to put the Venezuelan economy on the path toward sustained economic growth.

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Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher Editor@VHeadline.com  

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Monday, April 21, 2003 02:26 PM ET  Printer-friendly version   CARACAS (Dow Jones)--Venezuela will send 13 shipments of Merey crude oil to ConocoPhillips(COP, news) by June, adding to two shipments totaling 1.12 million barrels in April, Venezuela's state-run Venpres news agency reported Monday.

In April, the B/T Constitution and the Pioner shipped 550,000 barrels and 571, 000 barrels respectively, according to Venpres, which didn't specify total volume expected to be shipped through June.

Shipping agents couldn't be reached to verify the ships' names which are often mispelled by Venpres.

Venezuela's government claims crude oil output has now topped 3.1 million barrels per day after being down as low as 150,000 b/d during the strike that began Dec. 2.

The government has said it lost about $7 billion due to the strike.

Former managers at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA have put production at closer to 2.6 million b/d.

Venezuela normally provides about 15% of U.S. crude oil and refined product imports.

-By Jehan Senaratna; Dow Jones Newswires; 58212 564 1339; jehan.senaratna@ dowjones.com

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 21, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Pressure is building up before the Colombian-Venezuelan presidential summit scheduled on Wednesday April 23 in Puerto Ordaz.

Colombian Attorney General, Luis Camilo Osorio claims that Venezuela is harboring Colombian criminals in Venezuelan territory and calls on Venezuelan authorities to exercise greater collaboration in confronting the critical border situation. "The warning is clear: anyone who is a friend of criminals must accept the consequences." 

Osorio is referring principally , of course to Colombian guerrillas, who have been fighting successive governments for more than thirty years but throws in paramilitaries, narco-traffickers and common criminals for good measure. "I don't want to enter into microphone policy but in as far as it concerns my Office, we demand greater collaboration from the Venezuelan authorities and we are investigating the alleged bombing of a Colombian village by Venezuelan planes."

• The Colombian media has forecast that the summit will be "stormy and red hot." 

The first meeting between President Hugo Chavez Frias and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe took place on November 13, 2002 in Santa Marta, Colombia when both sides agreed to follow normal diplomatic channels to address problems and avoid so-called microphone policy of publicly attacking each other via media spots. 

This summit is preceded by a return to the shouting match or microphone diplomacy initiated on the Colombian side and which has characterized bilateral relations over the last couple of years. 

It coincides with a Colombian media offensive emboldened by the US war on Iraq and certainty that the USA will finally solve Colombian's internal de facto civil war, which has been mostly rural and recently started to hit urban areas. 

Venezuelan Executive Vice president, Jose Vicente Rangel has replied to the offensive by counter-attacking taking the Colombians by surprise, and raising belligerency levels in bilateral relations. 

Colombia's El Espectador broadsheet forecasts that it will be difficult to reach concrete agreements given current relations. Economic relations will figure high on the agenda as Venezuelans allegedly owe Colombian exporters $250-350 million.

Chavez Frias could dangle economic advantages to his counterpart by offering to drop the disastrous trucking agreement that has caused serious damage to trade between the two countries. 

The irony is that three years ago Chavez Frias ordered Colombian trucks that formerly delivered cargo inside Venezuela to transfer products to Venezuelan trucks at border check-points to favor Venezuelan trucking barons unable to compete on equals terms with their Colombian counterparts ... the main baron being (former?)  Federation of Chambers of Industry & Commerce president, Carlos Fernandez whose greed almost broke the Venezuelan economy in December-January. 

The deciding factor in Uribe's approach to the summit will be the USA and possible "pre-emptive diplomacy" changes to Plan Colombia. 

Colombian Senate Foreign Affairs Committee president, Enrique Gomez Hurtado agrees that it will be difficult to normalize bilateral relations ... "the Venezuelan government has few elements of mental normality ... President Chavez Frias has lost all credibility and is stimulating international provocations to cover up Venezuela's economic crisis."

The latest Bogota media spin is to reveal a Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) deserter's claim that the Caracas Carapaima urban guerrilla group is a FARC front and  evidence of the link between President Chavez Frias and FARC.

The woman deserter, who has entered the Colombian Army's witness protection program, has stated that the subversives receive Venezuelan ID cards and that FARC commander Jorge Briceno received medical attention in the Venezuelan border town of San Antonio in May 2000.

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher Editor@VHeadline.com    © 2003 VHeadline.com All Rights Reserved.  Privacy Policy Website Design, hosting and administration by: Integradesign.ca 

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Elecronic News Posted: Monday, April 21, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Energy & Mines Minister (MEM) Rafael Ramirez  has announced the delivery of 60 trucks to a "new" Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) cooperative next Thursday April 24.  

The new cooperative, Ramirez says,  will distribute  gasoline from the PDVSA Yagua (Carabobo) filling station to the central west part of Venezuela and will benefit 500 families that live near the filling area ... "it's the beginning of a new conception orientated towards integrating PDVSA with local organized communities." 

Ramirez claims that the PDVSA restructure will end the model of an elite running the industry by themselves and open the industry to the community. 

Without going into details as to the role of Venezuela's long established cooperative movement, Ramirez says the cooperative movement will join with "organized" communities to distribute gasoline and take over services and operations such as maintenance, food, providing uniforms, tools and other minor works. 

The MEM Minister says joint worker management will be applied to other national industries as well and has promised to open PDVSA's medical resources and other services to local communities.

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher Editor@VHeadline.com

boston.com

CARACAS, Venezuela - In a conference room at Venezuela's military academy, a group of soldiers listens attentively to a duo of Cuban instructors.

The topic being taught is not revolutionary guerrilla warfare as once practiced by Fidel Castro or ''Che'' Guevara, but the ''organoponic farming revolution,'' communist Cuba's latest export to its closest South American ally, Venezuela.

Inspired by Cuba's system of urban market gardens, which has been operating for several years, left-wing President Hugo Chavez has ordered the creation of similar intensive city plots across Venezuela in a bid to develop food self-sufficiency in the world's No. 5 oil exporter.