Posted on Sun, Apr. 20, 2003 BRUCE STANLEY KansasCity.com-Associated Press

LONDON -By boosting production ahead of the war in Iraq, OPEC succeeded in allaying concerns about a possible oil shortage once the shooting began. Yet instead of celebrating its achievement, the producers' cartel fears the world is now awash in crude and at risk of a ruinous price crash.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has called an emergency meeting for Thursday to assess postwar conditions in the oil market, with a view to slashing output to bolster sagging prices. OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah has said he believes the world is oversupplied by 2 million barrels a day at a time when seasonal demand normally slips to its lowest level of the year.

However, energy analysts warn that crude inventories in major importing countries are still alarmingly low. They argue that OPEC must be careful not to curb production so much that refiners face low stocks of oil as they head into summer, the peak season for gasoline consumption.

"This whole idea that there is a tidal wave of overproduction that's going to sink prices is just wrong," said Adam Sieminski, an oil price strategist at Deutsche Bank in London. "Inventories are extremely low, and Iraq is not producing, so there is no overproduction."

OPEC has timed its meeting in Vienna, Austria, to assess market conditions in the immediate aftermath of the war. This won't be easy, and some analysts argue that such a meeting is premature.

No one knows when Iraq, historically a large producer, will be able to resume its crude shipments. Nigeria and Venezuela, meanwhile, are still clawing their way back to production levels they enjoyed before social unrest and a national strike, respectively, dented their output.

Yet OPEC, which pumps about one-third of the world's oil, is eager to show that it is in control of - or at least closely monitoring - a tempestuous market.

OPEC's members agreed in January to a production target of 24.5 million barrels a day. They soon were busting their quotas, to profit from the high prices preceding the war as much as to reassure markets that supplies would be plentiful in spite of any hostilities.

OPEC earned plaudits from the United States and other importers for its proactive, and unofficial, production increase. By some estimates, OPEC's 10 members excluding Iraq were pumping an average of 26.2 million barrels a day last month - 7 percent above their quotas.

But oil prices tumbled as the conflict unfolded. By the time the fighting was over, futures contracts of U.S. light, sweet crude had fallen by more than one-third, from a high for the year of $39.99 a barrel reached on Feb. 27.

OPEC worries that prices may have farther to fall.

"I do not think there is any necessity for OPEC to carry on with its excess production. We should consider a cutback in production to balance supply and demand, especially in the second quarter," Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said Thursday in Tehran.

Many analysts accept that a production cut may be a foregone conclusion.

Kevin Norrish, head of commodities research at Barclays Capital in London, said OPEC would need to rein in output by 1 million to 1.5 million barrels a day to keep prices from sliding below $22 a barrel - the bottom end of the group's targeted price range.

Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies, suggested that a much smaller cut of 650,000 barrels a day would suffice to stabilize prices.

However, crude inventories are unusually low for this time of year, and a deep cut by OPEC would make it harder for importers to build them to comfortable levels.

Claude Mandil, head of the International Energy Agency - a watchdog agency for the world's leading importers - warned last week that a possible cut in output wouldn't actually take effect until demand starts to rise in the third quarter.

Replenishing oil inventories is a priority, he added. U.S. crude stocks stood at 281 million barrels at the end of the first quarter, or nearly 43 million barrels below the average for the previous five years, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

For Paul Horsnell, head of energy research at J.P. Morgan, the implications for OPEC's representatives in Vienna are clear.

"What they should do is nothing," he said.

Aside from policy issues, OPEC must wrangle with at least one glaring question of protocol: Who will represent Iraq at this week's meeting?

Iraq, a founding member of OPEC, hasn't participated in the group's production agreements since the 1991 Gulf War, but it normally sends at least one representative to OPEC's meetings.

With the toppling of Saddam Hussein's government, it's not clear who, if anyone, will speak for Iraq this time.

Iraq's acting ambassador to Austria, the cultural attache at Iraq's embassy in Vienna, served this function at OPEC's previous two meetings. Because the Austrian government still recognizes the embassy as Iraq's official representation in Austria, an OPEC source suggested that the attache, Khalid al-Shamari, may do so yet again.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, April 20, 2003 By: Anthony Romeo

Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2003 17:26:50 +0000 From: Anthony Romeo toneman86@hotmail.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Such bias...

Dear Editor: Let me start off with a little background. I am an American citizen, born and raised in the US. My wife is from Venezuela. She left the country in the early 90s and is happy here in the US.

I see a lot of complaining on your website, about supposed atrocities the US has caused your country. I liken it to the Boston Red Sox fans who continually whine, "Yankees suck, Yankees suck," all the while their team, trying so HARD to beat the Yankees, falls into a sewer.

Worry about your own country's problems before blaming them on the US ... I know the history: Venezuela used to be doing quite well economically.

Although Venezuela has had problems with the constitution and Presidents/Dictators, I believe that it can once again be a prosperous country ... but is your country willing to do what it takes?

...or to just ignore the challenges at home and instead get in on the US bashing?

C'mon, you even have a poll asking if the US should interfere with Venezuela. Of course, the answer should be no ... but again that depends on circumstances.

Has Venezuela tried to take over another nation?

Has Venezuela needed to have weapons inspections after the war to liberate the victimized country?

Has Venezuela been in defiance of the UN laws?

Has Venezuela harbored terrorists?

Is Venezuela a violent (to its own citizens) dictatorship?

Does Venezuela have weapons of mass destruction?

If all these are true, then Venezuela is exactly like Iraq.

The people who whine that North Korea is a bigger threat, neglect to add the fact that NK has not tried to take over a country or had the UN step in to try both economic embargo and weapons inspections ... in fact, no other country has all these factors save Iraq!

Frankly, I'm a little surprised at the bias shown on this website. I'll continue to read it in the hopes that it might change, but I see a strenuously pro-Chaves/anti-US position.

To tell the truth, for me, the jury is still out on Chavez ... he may be trying to fix your country ... or to ruin it.

Either way, I support the US and unfounded allegations of "involvement in the coup" does not sit well with me.

Tony Romeo toneman86@hotmail.com

VHeadline.com responds:  We don't really wish to burst your bubble, Tony, but the Venezuelan government already has conclusive evidence of US involvement in last year's 2-day coup against the democratically-elected government of President Hugo Chavez Frias.  Besides that, US officials were in on the pre-coup planning with rebels in the opposition and at least two US embassy liaison officers were buddy-buddy with the coupsters all the while.  US Black Hawk helicopters had already landed at Caracas (Simon Bolivar) international airport and, as we revealed in February last year, the CIA was up to its eyes in back-channel operations to attempt the assassination of President Chavez Frias.   We have no problem with the majority of decent USA citizens who would probably react with abject horror if the full facts were made known to them about the support that Washington has given to anti-democratic forces.  Not just now with regard to Venezuela ... there's a whole bunch of similar covert operations like in Chile, Nicaragua etc., etc.  While it's apparently "a al mode" (pardon my French) to crap all over anyone who disagrees with anything that Bush HQ dictates to the world, we would wish to point out that Venezuela is an independent sovereign state ... not enslaved to the United States of America or subject to any of its dictates.  And while we are about it, how about doing something about the terrorists the United States harbors in Florida and New York?  If we had some Middle East citizen in Venezuela calling publicly for the assassination of George W. Bush, what do you think the reaction would be?  Yet, factually, the USA has done nothing against anti-Venezuelan terrorists who have plotted the overthrow of the Caracas government and called for the assassination of the Venezuelan President ... the indisputable facts show that Washington in fact aided and abetted those terrorists and that continues its subversion of the democratically-elected government!  Is that the USA we should all love and respect?

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable  right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. --  Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher  Editor@VHeadline.com

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, April 20, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Venezuela's Anti-Drugs Office (Conacuid) says it needs 8.3 billion bolivares to carry through its narcotics control plan 2002-2007, revolving around eradication of poppy field cultivations and illegal trafficking and transshipment of drugs inside Venezuela. 

In a breakdown a Conacuid document outlines 46 projects and programs to help reduce supply and demand and push Venezuela into the international arena of the war on drugs. 

4.1 billion bolivares will go to cutting supply by seizures at road checkpoints, airports, seaports etc. and crop dusting organized by the Armed Force Unified Command (Cufan). 

3.2 billion will go towards cutting demand through prevention campaigns aimed at the family, and rehabilitation of addicts. 

684 million will help create the Venezuelan Narcotics Observatory (OVD) attached to Conacuid to collect, collate, analyze data for public use to help draw up policies and strategies to reduce supply and demand. 

Another 180 million will be used to increase international cooperation efforts, especially technical and financial assistance by multilateral organizations, as well as strengthening mechanisms of exchange of information and legal collaboration.

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable  right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. --  Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher  Editor@VHeadline.com

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Sunday, April 20, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

According to a Delta Amacuro State non-government organization (NGO), corruption in the Lower Delta Antonio Diaz municipality is a major reason why Warao indians are emigrating to Caracas and other Venezuelan cities to beg and waste away their lives. 

Hernan Rosas and Delta councilor, Luis Rodriguez say they have studied the matter and have attempted to investigate where State resources set apart for the indigenous group have gone. 

Both accuse pro-government Mayor Amado Antonio Heredia Bolano of corruption and confirm that they sent a dossier to the National Assembly  public expenditure control subcommittee in March 2001. 

The subcommittee recommended that Mayor Heredia be held publicly responsible and for the Citizen Power to open an investigation. 

The NGO leaders admit that the first state prosecutor sent to investigate, Jesus Molina undertook a  decent investigation ordering State Political & Security (DISIP) Police to start an audit. 

Molina was replaced by Ana Cecilia Mora, who ordered a physical inspection of the works (housing and sanitary). In July 2002, auxiliary prosecutor Ermilo Dellan allegedly placed obstacles in the investigation. Rodriguez says, "despite complaints, the municipality was then granted 20 billion bolivares for indigenous peoples projects ... only 3 million have been used and used badly."

Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable  right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. --  Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher  Editor@VHeadline.com

<a href=www.thestar.com>The Toronto Star Apr. 20, 2003. 09:10 AM OAKLAND ROSS FEATURE WRITER

There are roughly 6.3 billion people in the world. Not all of them live in Iraq.

In fact, only about 0.37 per cent of them do, while the rest live someplace else.

Granted, this is not the impression that TV viewers — or newspaper readers — might have gained in recent weeks, as the eyes and ears of the globe have been straining toward Baghdad, bent on registering every conceivable detail of the U.S.-led war to oust Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein (now better known as former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein).

Since the desert hostilities began on March 19, when the first U.S. missile of the war lit the night sky above the Iraqi capital, almost every other news story on the planet — from a crackdown on political dissidence in Cuba to a still unexplained massacre in northeastern Congo — has been pushed to the bottom of the headlines, shunted from TV screens and all but ignored by the scribes, pundits and populace of this war-weary orb called Earth.

There have been exceptions, of course — notably, the rapid and alarming spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, which has jetted from China to Hong Kong, Singapore and beyond. Metropolitan Toronto has been especially hard hit by the new and sometimes lethal virus.

Concern about SARS has at times equalled and even overshadowed the Iraq war in the hearts, minds and media outlets of Toronto.

But for the most part, here as elsewhere, the past month has been dominated by images of bombs in the night over Baghdad, tanks and armoured personnel carriers rattling across the Iraqi desert, and the rudely inverted statues of a widely reviled man.

Meanwhile, far from the confluence of the Tigris and the Euphrates rivers, the rest of the world has blundered on — unnoticed perhaps, but undeterred.

Herewith, as a service to readers, the Star provides some snapshots of the world beyond Iraq. This is what news junkies may have missed while waiting for Saddam to fall.

• First stop: Venezuela.

When last featured in the news, before being obscured by the dust storms of Iraq, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez seemed poised to survive a general strike called by his opponents in an effort to force his resignation.

Last December and early this year, the oil-rich but conflict-ridden South American republic tottered on the brink of outright civil war, but the left-leaning Chavez seemed determined to tough out the street demonstrations and the strife, not to mention the near strangulation of his country's economy by various sectors opposed to his rule.

Well, he seems to have made it.

The former paratroop officer, who once served two years in prison for leading a failed military coup of his own, is still in power and has lately taken to criss-crossing the length and breadth of Venezuela in efforts to rally support for his presidency, an office that at least twice he has seemed likely to lose.

In fact, just over a year ago, he himself was temporarily overthrown in a coup. That upheaval took place on April 12, 2002.

But the voluble and combative ruler resurfaced two days later and was restored to office, where he has continued to arouse his supporters and enrage his opponents with interminable speeches spiced with searing invective and populist rhetoric.

Political unrest continues, and the Venezuelan economy has plummeted, but Chavez's opponents seem to accept that they cannot topple him — or anyway not now. Instead, they are turning their attention toward the midpoint of the president's six-year term in August, when they will be legally entitled to seek his peaceful removal in a national referendum.

Chavez, who may not be everyone's idea of a statesman but is surely a survivor, has vowed to fight them every step of the way.

• And so to Cuba, where long-time ruler Fidel Castro — a close friend of Chavez, as it happens — chose the outbreak of hostilities in Iraq as the perfect moment to launch a harsh crackdown on mounting dissent.

The severity of his response stunned Cuban reformers and outraged governments and human-rights agencies abroad.

In all, 75 Cuban opposition activists were rounded up, to be jailed, tried and convicted in an exercise of repression whose severity is possibly unmatched in Cuba since the 1960s.

Long jail sentences were imposed against all of the detainees, ranging in most cases from 14 to 28 years.

• On April 12, in a separate case, a Cuban firing squad executed three men who had been convicted of trying to commandeer a ferry on Havana bay in a failed attempt to abscond to Florida, the latest in a recent string of mostly unsuccessful hijackings. The executions followed brief, secret trials and have been roundly criticized abroad.

Cuban authorities cast much of the blame for the crackdown on the U.S. government, which they accuse of aggressively fomenting rebellion within Cuba while not doing enough to discourage Cubans who try to flee the island.

Still, Castro's heavy-handed response seems certain to isolate his regime from democratic friends such as Canada and the European Union, while only deepening the rancour that already exists between Washington and Havana.

• As the war in Iraq was raging toward Baghdad, another, far bloodier conflict finally seemed to be edging toward a close — the long spiral of horrors that has convulsed the Democratic Republic of the Congo in West Africa since 1998.

Earlier this month, most of the parties to the war — including the armies of at least six neighbouring countries, in addition to a welter of rival armed factions within the Congo itself — finally signed a peace accord hammered out in South Africa. Not a moment too soon.

Last week in New York, an organization called the International Rescue Committee announced that the Congolese war has claimed the lives of at least 3.3 million people during its five-year span, making it "the deadliest documented conflict in African history."

Unfortunately, the death toll continues to rise.

Only days after the signing of the Congo peace accord in Cape Town, reports began to filter out of northeastern Congo concerning a series of apparently co-ordinated massacres committed in and around a town called Drodro, in which upwards of 1,000 people were feared dead.

So far, details of the atrocities remain uncertain, although it seems the carnage was not as great as initially thought — perhaps 150 to 350 people may have died. Still, the latest killings are harrowing evidence that the only reliable peace accords are the ones written, not on paper, but in the hearts of men.

It is not yet clear who was responsible for the recent massacres or why.

• Farther south on the same continent, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe — who apparently bases his notion of statecraft on the example set by Saddam Hussein — has had an awkward few weeks.

Intolerant of dissent in any form, Mugabe was undoubtedly dismayed this month when the opposition Movement for Democratic Change held a protest rally in Bulawayo, the southern African country's second largest city.

But his efforts to make his displeasure felt have lacked their usual sting.

First, Zimbabwean police detained Gibson Sabanda, the MDC's vice-president, for his role in organizing the protest. But they released him on April 7, a week after his arrest. Then, they promptly detained the organization's chief spokesperson, Paul Themba-Nyathia, and tossed him in jail instead.

That didn't work, either. Through error or oversight, the authorities failed to charge Themba-Nyathia properly, and a high court judge ordered his release four days later.

If Zimbabwean politics were played with bats, balls and wickets, Mugabe would be falling behind in the score. Unfortunately, the septuagenarian president's game is anything but cricket, and he makes most of the rules.

Still, Mugabe has had a sticky fortnight, and the Zimbabwean opposition has scored a few, which must count for something, somewhere.

• In Israel and the occupied territories, hostilities continue. A Canadian serving in the Israeli army was shot and killed on Tuesday in the West Bank city of Nablus, after a Palestinian emerged from a building under siege and began firing a pistol. Daniel Mandel, 24, of Toronto was shot dead and another soldier was wounded.

The armed Palestinian, identified as Mazen Fraitekh, was also killed in the shooting.

In another incident the same day, two Israeli workers were killed and three were wounded when a Palestinian threw grenades and opened fire near a truck crossing between Israel and Gaza.

• Finally, on a happier note, Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide has declared voodoo to be an official religion.

Now, Haiti's thousands of voodoo priests — known as houngans — will be able to exercise many functions formerly denied them, such as performing legal marriage ceremonies.

The African-based faith is practised by many and perhaps most of the country's more than 8 million people.

For further developments in these and other stories, check your newspaper. Normal coverage has resumed.