nzoom.com

Oil prices rose on Monday, weighing up the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports to the world market against possible supply curbs by Opec to avert a potential price crash.

US crude futures for May in New York rose 49 cents to $US28.63 a barrel while benchmark Brent crude oil in London rose 25 cents to $US25.00.

Oil prices have fallen about 30% from pre-war peaks near $US40 as US and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of Iraq's vital crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations.

Some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off themarket for months, but a senior US engineer said on Monday that Iraq's giant Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

"It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away," said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the US Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began on March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

"Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now," said Logsdon.

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand wanes in the second quarter, a seasonal slump between winter demand for heating oil and the peakconsumption of gasoline during summer.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from Opec producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

"The industry is now facing the prospect of too much oil in the months ahead unless Opec reins in some of its recent output increase," the London-based Centre for Global Energy studies said in a report.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

The International Energy Agency said last week that a big volume of Opec crude was sitting on the water waiting to hit consumer shores, but warned that it would be imprudent for producers to cut supplies too soon as fuel stockpiles in industrialised nations remain well below normal levels.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed Opec supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of $US22 to $US28 a barrel for Opec's reference basket of seven crudes.

Opec's basket price stood at $US25.40 on Thursday, compared with a monthly average of $US31.54 in February.

<a href=www.nzherald.co.nz>New Zeland Herald 15.04.2003 8.30 am

NEW YORK - Oil prices rose on Monday (New York time), as the market weighed up the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports against possible supply curbs by Opec to avert a potential price crash.

US crude futures for May in New York rose 49 cents to US$28.63 a barrel while benchmark Brent crude oil in London rose 25 cents to US$25.00.

Oil prices have fallen about 30 per cent from pre-war peaks near US$40 as US and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of Iraq's vital crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations

Some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off the market for months, but a senior US engineer said on Monday that Iraq's giant Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

"It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away," said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the US Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began on March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

"Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now," said Logsdon.

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand wanes in the second quarter, a seasonal slump between winter demand for heating oil and the peak consumption of gasoline during summer.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from Opec producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

"The industry is now facing the prospect of too much oil in the months ahead unless Opec reins in some of its recent output increase," the London-based Centre for Global Energy studies said in a report.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

The International Energy Agency said last week that a big volume of Opec crude was sitting on the water waiting to hit consumer shores, but warned that it would be imprudent for producers to cut supplies too soon as fuel stockpiles in industrialised nations remain well below normal levels.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed Opec supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of US$22 to US$28 a barrel for Opec's reference basket of seven crudes.

Opec's basket price stood at US$25.40 on Thursday, compared with a monthly average of US$31.54 in February. Reuters

Reuters, 04.14.03, 3:42 PM ET

PANAMA CITY, April 14 (Reuters) - Turnover at Panama's Colon Free Zone, Latin America's largest tax-free import and re-export center, fell 20.5 percent to $1.7 billion in the first three months of 2003, hurt by weak demand for goods, zone officials said on Monday.

With many Latin American economies yet to emerge from economic doldrums, sales in the January to March period tumbled 19.1 percent to $944 million, compared with the same period in 2002.

The free zone imports everything from tennis rackets to photocopiers from Asia and the United States, selling the goods on to consumers from Mexico City to Montevideo.

Imports at the zone, based at the mouth of the Panama Canal in Colon, 50 miles (80 km) northwest of Panama City, slipped 22.1 percent to $797 million, official data showed. Turnover is the sum of the zone's purchases, or imports, plus its sales.

"We don't see a strong recovery of sales until the economies of big buyers such as Venezuela start to pick up," said a trader at the 1,000-acre (400-hectare) park, home to some 2,000 companies including luxury goods-maker Yves Saint Laurent and toolmaker Black & Decker Corp (nyse: BDK - news - people).

Venezuela, which purchases some 20 percent of goods every year, is the free zone's largest buyer.

The Venezuelan economy will shrink by about 8.9 percent this year, in line with last year's contraction, Venezuelan Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega said in a Reuters interview on Monday. The free zone saw one of the worst years in its 55-year history in 2002, after turnover fell 10.7 percent to $9.07 billion in 2002, compared with 2001.

Latin American economies are expected to grow 1.5 percent in 2003, rising to 4.2 percent in 2004, according to the International Monetary Fund.

China, Japan, South Korea and the United States are the principal users of the free trade park, exporting goods through Panama on a tax-free basis.

Mon Apr 14, 3:54 PM ET <a href=story.news.yahoo.com>Add Health - Reuters to My Yahoo! By E. J. Mundell

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Like many Americans living withHIV (news - web sites), New York writer and activist Mike Barr takes regularly scheduled, physician-sanctioned drug 'holidays,' giving his body a temporary break from the side effects of powerful anti-retroviral medications.   What's uncommon about Barr is how he disposes of drugs he has no use for during these treatment interruptions. Partnering with a Manhattan-based nonprofit agency called Aid For AIDS (news - web sites) (aidforaids.org), Barr and hundreds of like-minded patients across the US and Canada sort, ship and distribute these life-saving, 'recycled' drugs to HIV-positive individuals in the developing world.

"If I can take half as much therapy, and give the other half of that therapy to someone in South America or Haiti, then for the same amount of money two lives are being saved instead of one," he explained.

For hundreds of patients spread across Africa, the Caribbean and Central and South America, Aid For AIDS remains a vital lifeline, providing them with a reliable supply of medicines that would otherwise be financially out of reach.

And since many of those enrolled in the program are AIDS educators and activists in their local communities, their continued survival has a ripple effect, helping prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS in these countries.

"We don't pretend to solve the problem, but we're making it a little better for those who are making a real difference," explained Venezuelan-born Jesus Aguais, who started Aid For AIDS in 1996 with just three patients. That number is now 520 -- and growing.

With no advertising, the simple idea behind Aid for AIDS spread quickly via word of mouth through the HIV patient community in the United States and Canada, resulting in a steady supply of donated drugs.

"People for whatever reason -- they die, they change their regimen, they never took the medicine -- they give it to us," Aguais explained in an interview with Reuters Health.

After removing the donor's name from the label on the bottle, donated medicines are carefully inventoried and sorted as per the requirements of individual patients -- or "clients" as Aguais calls them -- in the developing world.

Every foreign patient who applies for assistance from Aid For AIDS must first undergo a careful medical assessment, because the program's small store of medicines is best spent on those who closely adhere to the strict treatment schedules HIV drug therapy requires.

Working via fax and email with doctors in the client's home country, Program Director Dr. Jaime Valencia reviews application forms that outline prospective clients' proof of HIV status, current medical history, and CD4 immune-cell blood counts.

Priority is given to AIDS activists and educators, "people who are making a difference in their countries," Aguais stressed. In this way, donated medicines do more than just keep individual patients alive -- they also help prevent new infections, as individuals helped by the agency spread the wordabout the dangers of HIV.

Once accepted into the program, clients must submit CD4 counts every six months so that Valencia can chart their progress and adherence to the medications. As often happens, specific medications can decline in effectiveness over time, but Valencia said the agency's drug inventory is usually flexible enough to accommodate changes in drug regimens.

"I have to talk with the client's doctor, telling him which medications we have available, and he chooses the (new) treatment for the patient," he explained.

Working out of a few small rooms in lower Manhattan, Aid For AIDS remains unique.

"There are other recycling programs," Aguais said, "but none of them work like we do. We have complete control over where these medicines go." Because there are currently no U.S. laws allowing or prohibiting the export of donated medicines, Aguais said it is important from a legal standpoint "to know who the patients are." He said abuse of the program (such as reselling donated medicines) is almost nonexistent, due to close bonds that have formed over time between the New York office and trusted doctors in the Americas and Africa.

Aid For AIDS also accepts non-HIV-related drugs and devices for distribution in the developing world. Walking into a room stacked floor-to-ceiling with donated medications, Aguais pointed to one pile in a corner.

"Here we are preparing 13 boxes so far of medical supplies," he said. "This is going to an indigenous area between Venezuela and Colombia called Guajira, the Guajira tribe. We send it to a hospital that we know is going to distribute it."

Lynn Shulman, director of communications with the pioneering AIDS outreach group Gay Men's Health Crisis, said initiatives like Aid for AIDS are desperately needed, "because it enables people with HIV/AIDS to have greater access to medications they need."

But money remains a problem. Although the medicines are donated, they still require storage, sorting and shipping.

"We always struggle for money," Aguais said. "Last year with a budget of $240,000 we sent over $5 million of HIV medicines abroad."

"We have proved, though, that things can be done -- and done well -- when you want to do it," he added. "I hope I can raise a million dollars this year. And instead of helping 500 people, help 5,000. If we help 5,000 of the right people, this will multiply into 20,000. This is how it happens."

<a href=reuters.com>Reuters Mon April 14, 2003 03:33 PM ET (The following statement was released by the ratings agency)

NEW YORK, April 14 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it assigned its 'A+' long-term and 'A-1' short-term credit ratings to Fondo Latinoamericano de Reservas (FLAR), Latin American Reserve Fund, whose primary goal is to assist and support the balance of payments of its member countries by granting them short- and medium-term loans. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable.

"FLAR's ratings are supported by its active membership support, robust public policy role, and strong capital position," said credit analyst Richard Francis. "Its principal shareholders (the Republics of Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Peru, and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela) have consistently honored their obligations to the fund, even while encountering severe economic stress," he added.

According to Mr. Francis, FLAR's members are expected to continue providing it preferred creditor status going forward. "They support the institution because it stands ready to provide inexpensive unsecured dollar financing to member central banks at short notice for balance of payment support," Mr. Francis noted. "Standard & Poor's also expects FLAR to continue its success in expanding its membership beyond the Andean nations, as it has done recently with the accession of Costa Rica," he concluded. Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, Standard & Poor's Web-based credit analysis system, at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; under Fixed Income in the left navigation bar, select Credit Ratings Actions.