<a href=reuters.com>Reuters, Tue April 15, 2003 01:20 AM ET SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked lower on Tuesday but kept a narrow trading range as traders weighed the possibility of a reduction in OPEC supplies with abnormally low fuel stocks in many consuming countries.

U.S. light crude fell 14 cents to $28.49 a barrel, while London's Brent crude lost 15 cents to $24.70 a barrel.

Traders are waiting to see whether the OPEC producers' cartel will curb crude flows to the world market at an emergency meeting proposed for either late April or early May.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fears that prices, which sank 10 percent after the start of the war in Iraq, could tumble to $20 or below during the remainder of the second quarter when oil demand usually drops off by about two million barrels per day (bpd).

OPEC has ramped up output by almost two million bpd over its official production ceiling to cover supply disruptions in Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

It now fears that with Venezuelan and Nigerian production making a recovery, supply will sharply outpace demand, leading to big builds in stock levels and downward pressure on prices.

The winding down of the war in Iraq with its oil infrastructure largely undamaged also has raised speculation that crude exports from the Gulf producer could resume in a few months although administrative and legal issues may delay physical barrels from hitting the market.

Iraq exported about 1.7 million bpd of its daily output of roughly 2.5 million barrels before the war to oust Saddam Hussein.

OPEC officials have said the group might agree to tighten compliance to current production quotas, or cut the group production limit of 24.5 million bpd.

"While the market continues to prevaricate over the direction of the next move, we move closer to likely OPEC action, which reduces the risk of a sharp downside move," said Sydney-based oil analyst Simon Games-Thomas, who pegged $30 a barrel as "fair value" for crude at the moment given low Western oil stocks.

"The current discount reflects relief that Iraq's oil infrastructure is generally intact and concerns that there will be an early return to export status, which will threaten the status quo and cause a sell-off in oil prices."

WATCHDOG WARNING

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which acts as a watchdog for 26 industrialized nations on energy issues, warned producers last week that any cut to supplies would be imprudent for the time being despite a backlog of OPEC oil on the water waiting to hit consumer shores.

Crude inventories in the United States, the world's biggest oil user, have been running this year at a big deficit to 2002 levels and close to 270 million barrels, which the government considers the minimum needed to keep the nation's refineries operating smoothly.

Stocks of gasoline are also lower than at the same time in 2002, and some analysts fear that if refiners do not start to replenish tanks soon, there could be a supply crunch when motor fuel is in peak demand in the summer.

The government's Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its weekly report on the health of U.S. fuel stocks on Wednesday. Traders closely monitor the EIA data for a snapshot of overall demand for oil.

Six analysts polled by Reuters predicted crude stocks to grow by 2.5 million barrels in the week to April 11, with gasoline inventories rising 1.55 million barrels.

By Michelle Rama, Associated Press, 4/15/2003 00:43

NEW YORK (Dow Jones/AP) Univision Communications Inc.'s television channel is an institution to the Spanish-speaking population in the United States and Hispanic Broadcasting Corp. is the country's largest Spanish-language radio broadcaster.

So a merger of the two seemed a natural fit the largest media company serving a demographic that is growing faster than the rest of the population.

But while most analysts like the deal, investors have been slow to warm up to it. The problems cited most often include antitrust issues and dilution concerns along with the same economic climate other media companies face.

Los Angeles-based Univision's shares have fallen about 33 percent since June, when it agreed to acquire Dallas-based Hispanic broadcasting in a stock swap then valued at about $3.5 billion.

Instead of gaining from the proposed merger both companies have followed the general pattern of media stocks, hurt by advertising concerns.

Univision closed Monday at $26.61, up 92 cents. The shares hit a 52-week low of $16.40 on Aug. 8 and a 52-week high of $44.89 last April 16.

Hispanic Broadcasting, with 63 radio stations in 15 of the top 25 Hispanic markets and a network of bilingual Web sites, saw its stock rally after the merger announcement, then begin to seesaw. It closed Monday at $22.35, up 55 cents, or 2.5 percent. Its 52-week low of $13.80 was hit August 8, while a 52-week high of $30.15 was reached last April 19.

Analysts favoring the deal point to the cross-promotion possibilities in the merged company.

Not only can the company promote its TV programs on radio and vice versa in local markets, said Anthony Valencia, analyst at TCW Group, a Los Angeles-based institutional investment management firm, but it can offer advertising packages.

''There's an expertise in marrying (the leading) Hispanic TV company with the leading Spanish radio company that's different than buying an English-speaking company. They know how to sell Hispanic advertising,'' Valencia said.

The growing Latin demographic gives Univision a natural advantage over other media companies.

''General media doesn't have a growing population, (so) they're all fighting for the same pie,'' CIBC World Markets analyst Jason Helfstein said. ''Even if you lose share, as long as you don't lose more share than the increase in the Spanish population, you're still doing OK.''

Another advantage for Univision is that it has the exclusive right to show Venezuela's Venevision and Mexico's Televisa programming through 2017.

''Essentially the programming from these two entities, specifically Televisa, is really considered the gold standard the best programming in Latin America and basically Univision has it completely locked up,'' Valencia said.

Television accounts for about 93 percent of Univision's net revenue, with music operations, 6 percent, and Univision Online, 1 percent, making up the rest.

Univision's progress toward the acquisition originally slated for a March 14 closing hit a snag when authorities requested more information and time to review the proposed buy for anticompetitive advantages.

The Department of Justice has since required Univision to sell ''a significant portion'' of its partial ownership in Entravision Communications Corp. before it can proceed with the $3 billion deal.

Posted on Tue, Apr. 15, 2003 Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela - A Venezuelan court on Monday convicted a man of killing three people at an opposition rally last year.

The court found Joao de Gouveia guilty of premeditated homicide and sentenced him to 30 years in prison, prosecutor Carlos Bastidas said.

Hundreds of people at an opposition rally were listening to a speech on the night of Dec. 6, 2002, when de Gouveia opened fire, killing three people and wounding 28 others. De Gouveia admitted to the crime.

The killings fueled political tensions between allies and adversaries of President Hugo Chavez on the fourth day of a crippling national strike aimed at forcing Chavez to step down or call early elections.

Nine Venezuelans were killed during the two-month strike, which failed to oust Chavez as opposition leaders had planned.

Gouveia, 39, a Portuguese citizen who has lived in Venezuela for more than 20 years, has five days to appeal the conviction.

JamaicaObserver.com OLIVIA LEIGH CAMPBELL, Observer staff reporter Tuesday, April 15, 2003

A file photo of drilling being done for oil. Jamaica is taking another go at oil exploration, with technical assistance from Ecuador and Venezuela.

TWO decades after its last serious search for petroleum, Jamaica is to take another stab at oil exploration and is to get technical help for the venture from Venezuela and Ecuador, Phillip Paulwell, the minister with responsibility for energy, confirmed yesterday.

"Having reviewed information dating over the past 20 years, we have decided that it is worth pursuing, based on our finding so far," Paulwell told the Observer. "Ecuador and Venezuela have offered technical support and guidance, and based on the advice given, the ministry will vigorously pursue exploration efforts using private sector investments." PAULWELL... we have decided that it is worth pursuing

He declined to name the private sector companies with which Jamaica is talking for this new round of oil probe which is likely to concentrate on areas off the island's south coast, although the minister did not give specific geographic location for the search.

Proposals are soon to be reviewed by the National Contracts Committee (NCC) and it was possible that activity could start during this fiscal year, Paulwell said.

In 1981/1982 a consortium of an American oil company, Union Texas, and the Italian state oil company, sunk an exploratory well in Pedro Banks, 50 miles off the island's south coast, which the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ) had divided into five blocs to be auctioned as concessions.

Although Jamaican officials at the time claimed that the Union Texas/Agip had been encouraged by their finding in their Arawak bloc, the consortium packed up without exercising its option over its second bloc, called Bonito.

PCJ itself, in the early 1980s, drilled three on-shore wells on the island's northwest coast in Westmoreland. These were declared to have shown promise, but not the likelihood of commercially exploitable deposits of oil.

Jamaica had financed its initial hydro-carbon mapping with funding and technical help from the Norwegian Government and Canada's PetroCanada. In the mid-1980s, the Norwegians financed further seismic and geological mapping in the west, north and eastern sections of Jamaica, but no further exploration took place.

"Many years ago, Jamaica conducted a tremendous amount of research but stopped, primarily because of the cost of doing such exploration," Paulwell said yesterday.

The minister's confirmation of the country's renewed interest in oil and gas exploration came on his return from trips last week to Venezuela and Ecuador to firm up agreements for oil supplies from these countries.

Jamaica, for more than 20 years, has been entitled to up to 16,000 barrels per day (bpd) from Venezuela under the San Jose Accord under which Venezuela and Mexico provide petroleum to a number of Caribbean and Central American countries on a preferential basis. Under San Jose, beneficiaries pay cash for 80 per cent of their supplies and have credit on the rest. But the deferred payments can be turned into long-term loans if the savings are invested in approved development projects.

Additionally, nearly two years ago Venezuela, on its own, extended the Caracas Oil Agreement to a number of regional countries providing additional supplies on terms similar to San Jose.

Jamaica is entitled to 7,400 bpd under the Caracas agreement, but there was apparently uncertainty between Jamaica and Venezuela whether there was an automatic annual roll-over of the agreement or whether it required new negotiations.

Paulwell said that the Caracas pact was an "evergreen" agreement which was automatically renewable annually.

Jamaica gets 60 per cent of its oil supply from Venezuela and last year when strikes aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez shut down Venezuela's oil production for several months, Jamaica turned to Ecuador for supplies of 12,000 bpd.

Venezuelan oil shipments to Jamaica are to resume in June, coinciding with the re-opening of the 35,000 bpd Petrojam refinery, which is now closed for maintenance.

Terry Macalister Tuesday April 15, 2003 The Guardian

Global oil prices slumped further yesterday as traders feared Iraqi exports would be brought on stream more quickly than expected just as demand is falling.

Supply has already been boosted by Venezuela coming back to full production after a strikes, and a large quantity of crude from Saudi Arabia arriving at US refiners.

Technical obstacles are being fast overcome in Iraq while the political infrastructure is being prepared, with former Iraqi industry official Fadhil Othman tipped as a possible oil minister.

Crude futures in the US slumped 43 cents to $27.75 a barrel and North Sea Brent blend was down 29 cents to $24.46. Prices have fallen more than 30% since fighting began in the Middle East as fears of a wider conflict receded.

Tom Logsden, a senior member of the US army corps of engineers in Iraq, said it was a "definite possibility" that tankers could be loading exports from the northern region inside a few weeks.

The fields around Kirkuk are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels a day out of the country's pre-war level of 2.5m barrels.

Many believe it is only the Opec cartel of oil producers that can stop prices plummeting further. But Opec warned that prices would remain volatile because of continued uncertainty about output from Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.