Eurekalert Public release date: 3-Apr-2003

Contact: Mary Tobin mtobin@ldeo.columbia.edu 845-365-8607 The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Columbia publishes natural hazards & mitigation framework for Caracas

Intl. Urban Planning Studios ask Masters and Ph.D. students to address hazards planning in developing countries International Urban Planning Studios are the only of their kind taking students to developing countries to examine and plan for natural hazards

Living near the seismically active intersection of two tectonic plates, and nestled against the steep slopes of young mountain ranges, the population of Caracas, Venezuela and surrounding regions is at great risk from severe earthquake, landslide, and flooding hazards. Recently published in the American Geophysical Union's journal EOS is an analysis of how to build disaster resilience into this Venezuelan capital region. The authors of the paper, Kevin Vranes and Kristina Czuchlewski, are Columbia University students participating in a unique academic program that combines research in natural hazards with urban planning and policy studies.

The paper is based on an intensive 125-page report that Vranes and Czuchlewski researched and generated with fellow graduate students enrolled in Columbia's International Urban Planning Studio. According to the report, "neither Caracas nor Venezuela currently has any urban planning projects or studies that incorporate or discuss natural hazards and disasters." The report was also presented to officials from the Caracas city government, the Andean Parliament, representatives from Venezuelan academic institutions, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Venezuelan Red Cross.

Major earthquakes have destroyed Caracas three times in the last 400 years, and heavy rainfall has triggered landslides, mudflows, and debris flows as recently as December 1999, killing tens of thousands of people. The report found that half the population of Caracas lives in unplanned, unzoned, and unofficial squatter settlements built of non-reinforced masonry.

Immediate disaster-avoidance recommendations in the report include building disaster resilience into the utility infrastructure (water, sewage, and power) and the highway system, both within and connecting the city to its state of Vargas. Also needed is strengthening of the emergency response system (medical, police and fire). Intermediate goals include establishing constitutional and legal legitimacy for disaster management, fostering international exchange between scientists, professionals and technicians, and starting public outreach programs in schools and communities. Long-term recommendations include the realization of open spaces and resilient structures, and the development of a clearly organized hazards and disaster management system that incorporates government officials, the military, the scientific community, non-governmental organizations, and the public. (visit www.arch.columbia.edu for full report.)

This report was the result of an academic experiment at Columbia University that brought together earth science researchers and Ph.D. students from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and the Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation's Urban Design Studio. The studio was supported by the Earth Institute and Lamont-Doherty with seed funding through the new Center for Hazards and Risk Research.

Says Elliott Sclar, Director of Columbia's Urban Planning Program, "This studio is an important teaching experiment at Columbia, and represents the first significant integration of the natural hazard expertise at Lamont into the urban planning program." Says Art Lerner-Lam, Director of the Center for Hazards and Risk Research, "By combining talents from planning, geosciences, public policy, and engineering, the students are able to work as a team to answer real-world problems in urban planning in cities where natural hazards present a significant risk." This unique cross-disciplinary studio was suggested by Ana Puszkin-Chevlin, a program coordinator in Urban Planning. Klaus Jacob, an engineering seismologist at Lamont famous for his work in earthquake hazard mitigation, and Sigurd Grava, a professor of urban planning with a world-wide reputation in transportation planning and infrastructure, are the lead faculty for the studio.

Vranes and Czuchlewski, the authors of the EOS paper, spent seven days in Caracas with the rest of their team researching previous disaster areas and meeting with officials and university researchers.

Vranes said that while the first few days on the ground in Caracas were spent collecting data from contacts they had at the various universities, the last few days were spent doing footwork to fill in the blanks. "One of the things our team lacked was a detailed map of the city," he said. For much of the data needed, they had to start from scratch. "We were only able to get an idea of the emergency infrastructure in Caracas by compiling a list of fire and police stations that we found in the phone book," Vranes said.

Czuchlewski is doing radar research at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. "This work motivated my thesis project on developing rapid disaster response strategies using radar remote sensing," said Czuchlewski. "I am applying this methodology to landslide disasters in Taiwan, similar to those triggered by heavy rains in Venezuela."

Since the Caracas research, the spring urban planning international studio has continued to develop innovative interdisciplinary studies for major urban areas exposed to natural hazards. In 2002, Jacob and Grava brought the studio to Istanbul, where a significant earthquake risk has been established. The 2003 studio is currently examining flooding and public health issues in Accra, Ghana, in coordination with the 21st Century Cities Project.

The Earth Institute at Columbia University is the world's leading academic center for the integrated study of Earth, its environment, and society. The Earth Institute builds upon excellence in the core disciplines –earth sciences, biological sciences, engineering sciences, social sciences and health sciences –and stresses cross-disciplinary approaches to complex problems. Through its research training and global partnerships, it mobilizes science and technology to advance sustainable development, while placing special emphasis on the needs of the world's poor. For more information, visit www.earth.columbia.edu.

<a href=ogj.pennnet.com>Oil&Gas Journal Sam Fletcher Senior Writer

HOUSTON, Apr. 3 -- Energy futures prices continued to plunge Wednesday, as reports of increased US oil inventories triggered additional selling among optimistic traders.

The US Department of Energy reported US crude inventories "built substantially," up 6.8 million bbl to 280.7 million bbl during the week ended Mar. 28, with higher imports "more than offsetting" a 400,000 b/d increase in refinery runs. "Although the (American Petroleum Institute) reported a more substantial build of 9 million bbl, the two reports essentially resulted in the same level of absolute stocks at 281millon bbl," said Matthew Warburton with UBS Warburg LLC, New York.

Oil imports Warburton reported US oil imports surged to a record 10.36 million b/d during the last week of March, primarily due to the arrival of cargoes from Saudi Arabia. But he and other analysts noted that increased shipments of heavy, sour oil from Venezuela and Saudi Arabia can't offset interrupted supplies of light, sweet Nigerian crude.

Moreover, Paul Horsnell, analyst for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., London, noted, "Current arrivals of crude represent a time of loading when Nigeria and Iraq were at full (export) capacity. Given that, it is by no means clear that imports can be maintained above 10 million b/d throughout (the second quarter), once the cushion of extra oil in the supply chain over the next few weeks begins to abate."

Horsnell said, "More Saudi oil would be a poor quality substitute for Nigerian supplies, especially given the current imperative for refineries to produce higher gasoline yields."

Warburton agreed, "Prolonged reduction in Nigerian export volumes could become increasingly critical to summer production given its gasoline-rich composition." He noted that, in the latest reported period, "Gasoline inventories increased by 1.7 million bbl, driven primarily by high imports and subdued demand, but most of the increase was in other finished gasoline and blending components, offsetting a modest further fall in RFG (reformulated gasoline) inventories."

"The stubbornness of oil product deficits is of some concern," said Horsnell. "For the first time since the inventory deficit first opened up 9 months ago, more than half of that deficit is in oil products."

Therefore, he said, "It will not matter how fast crude oil piles up if the system is having difficulty refining it fast enough. We still believe that the US market will have difficulty in avoiding a significant gasoline price spike this summer, as the task of playing catch up with inventory cover is one that the US refining system has recently proven extremely poor at achieving."

Meanwhile, Horsnell said, "Some traders seem to believe that $20/bbl is the inevitable and immediate result of an outcome in Iraq, and many are still expecting a magic spigot to sharply and swiftly increase Iraqi exports. Our position remains that the fundamentals do not support prices in the low $20s; that significant Iraqi exports are unlikely this quarter and in some doubt for next quarter; and that it would be a supreme achievement to merely stabilize Iraqi production over a 2-year period."

Energy prices The May contract for benchmark US sweet, light crudes plummeted by $1.22 to $28.56/bbl Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June position fell $1.02 to $27.21/bbl. Unleaded gasoline for May delivery plunged 5.03¢ to 86.39¢/gal. Heating oil for the same month dropped 2.23¢ to 71.86¢/gal.

The May natural gas contract lost 6¢ to $5.07/Mcf on NYMEX. "Limited short-covering pushed the market above key $5(/Mcf) support. Limited short-covering is the only way the market will strengthen for now," gas market analysts said Thursday at Enerfax Daily. "The market still faces near record-low storage inventories."

The US Energy Information Administration reported Thursday a 37 bcf injection of natural gas into US underground storage last week. That compares with an injection of 7 bcf the previous week and the withdrawal of 61 bcf during the same period last year. At the end of the traditional withdrawal season, US storage stands at 680 bcf. That's 820 bcf less than at the same time a year ago, and 506 bcf below the 5-year average.

A recent study by C.H. Guernsey & Co., Oklahoma City, concluded that more than 2.2 tcf of natural gas must be injected into underground storage from now through October to get even close to a 3 tcf "comfort level" by Nov. 1. Net gas injections through the summer of 2002 totaled less than 1.7 tcf.

Such demand is certain to impact US natural gas prices "throughout the summer and into next winter," said Guernsey officials.

"We believe that natural gas prices will regain momentum with the onset of summer as it becomes apparent. . .that significant demand needs to be 'backed out'. . .to attain a reasonable storage level entering next winter," said Robert S. Morris, energy analyst for Banc of America Securities LLC, New York, in a separate report Wednesday. He said an average gas price of $5-5.50/Mcf—"more likely higher than lower" —will be necessary to back out 5 bcfd of gas demand "in order for storage to just reach (2.75 tcf) at the beginning of November."

In London, the May contract for North Sea Brent oil fell $1.17 to $25.21/bbl on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brokers said prices are likely to stabilize around $25/bbl in that market. The May natural gas contract lost 8.8¢ to the equivalent of $2.57/Mcf on IPE.

The average price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of seven benchmark crudes dropped $1.04 to $25.76/bbl. With oil prices already near the mid-point of OPEC's targeted $22-28/bbl price range, some analysts doubt that members of the cartel will be as willing to increase production to offset losses from Iraq and Nigeria.

Contact Sam Fletcher at samf@ogjonline.com

Reuters, 04.03.03, 1:08 PM ET NEW YORK (Reuters) - NYMEX crude oil futures slipped off session peaks Thursday afternoon as players took some profits amid news that U.S.-led forces were pushing closer to Baghdad. Crude's movement was partly influenced by some selling on gasoline futures, which surged earlier following heavy losses on Wednesday, traders said. "The longs stuck with their positions for a while. But right now, with gasoline giving up some gains, those people are taking some profits on crude also," said a NYMEX floor trader. At 1255 EST (1755 GMT), NYMEX May crude was up 24 cents at $28.80 a barrel, trading $28.30 to $29.24. In London, May Brent crude traded at $25.51 a barrel, up 30 cents, below its session high of $25.87. NYMEX May gasoline was up 0.46 cent at 86.85 cents a gallon, below its session high of 88.25 cents. The morning low was 86.10 cents. Traders expect the market's general decline to persist as optimism is growing that the war with Iraq would end quicker than earlier speculated. U.S. armored units moved on Thursday to about 10 km (six miles) from the edge of Baghdad and planes hit targets in and around the Iraqi capital in preparation for an assault on the airport. Parts of four elite Iraqi Republican Guard divisions were moving south, U.S. officers said, setting up a potential showdown for the capital. But U.S. and British political and military leaders said urban warfare in Baghdad could be prolonged and bloody and refused to be drawn on when they might authorize a final push to capture the city of five million people. The day's gains are being limited by data showing a big rise in U.S. crude supplies last week. Surging imports from Saudi Arabia lifted U.S. crude inventories nearly 7 million barrels to 280.7 million barrels, in the week to last Friday, government data showed on Wednesday. Growing deliveries from Venezuela, which was crippled by a two-month strike that began in December, also added to last week's inventory build. U.S. Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said Thursday the rise in inventories was a "positive sign" of adequate supply. He said there was no need to use the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve due to the Iraq and Nigeria disruptions, because they won't cause a "severe" interruption. OPEC-member Nigeria's internal ethnic unrest that continues to disrupt almost 40 percent of the country's 2.2 million bpd crude oil output remains supportive, traders said. "We look for nearby futures to settle into the 27.50-29.50 range into next week," said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates in a research note. "A renewed push back to above the $30.00 area is still possible but will require an extended loss of Nigerian output." NYMEX May heating oil futures were 0.89 cents higher at 72.75 cents a gallon, trading 71.30 to 73.70 cents.

<a href=news.mywebpal.com>The Jeffersonian.com 04/03/03 By Bob Allen

Even though gasoline prices are up more than 25 percent in Maryland and the Baltimore area from a year ago, AAA Mid-Atlantic says it hasn't seen signs that people are rethinking travel plans.

"I don't think we've gotten there yet," Deborah DeYoung, AAA Mid-Atlantic's manager of public and government relations, said Tuesday. "The 200 travel agents we work with are telling us that people are still switching from airline to driving trips."

With pump-side gasoline prices in Maryland around $1.66 per gallon for regular (only about 6 cents short of a record high) and $1.65 nationally (down a cent or two from last week's record high), DeYoung said the average driver is spending about $42 more a month than a year ago.

Rick Gordon, owner of Gordon's Citgo at 7101 Reisterstown Road in Pikesville, says he's heard a lot of complaints about prices, "but I haven't seen any changes" in buying habits.

In agreement are an attendant at Caton Texaco at 3300 Washington Boulevard in Lansdowne as well as Adrian Hughes, owner of Hughes's Shell on York Road in Timonium.

"People are more or less switching from premium to plus or regular gas," he added. "But that happens all the time when prices go up."

But Mike Dechelman, owner of Randallstown Getty at 9901 Liberty Road, said his sales have declined since prices rose. "Even though we always take a 'cheapest-on-the-street' approach, our sales have gone from 2,000 gallons a day to 1,200 or 1,300 gallons a day since prices went up."

Dechelman said he's unsure why sales have dropped or where people are buying the gas they used to buy from him. He speculated that people may also be bargain hunting for gas.

"It's very upsetting to buy gas at these prices," Dechelman admitted.

He said that on a recent trip to Ocean City, the prices varied greatly. "It was $1.74 a gallon in Easton, $1.49 in Cambridge and $1.49 in Ocean City," he recalled.

And prices remain high even though crude oil prices have dropped from nearly $40 a barrel a couple weeks ago to around $25.

Industry analysts predict that market volatility due to the war, the shut-down of Nigerian oil fields, ongoing shortfalls in Venezuela's production due to political unrest and the increased demand for gasoline by summer travelers will keep pump prices high for the short term.

Industry analysts with whom AAA confers also predict that crude oil prices will probably not drop below $20 a barrel or rise above $40 in the foreseeable future.

"Experts feel that the president would have to dip into the 600 million gallons in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve" if prices did go above $40, said DeYoung.

"Any recession we've ever had has been preceded by a spike in oil prices," she added. "Beyond the prices we're paying at the pump, that's the bigger picture."

Regardless of market conditions, gasoline prices typically rise in the late spring in anticipation of increased demand by vacation travelers.

Summer prices are also impacted by the added costs of pollution-reducing additives required for blends of gasoline used in the warmer months.

Still, DeYoung doubts current prices will dampen many travel plans. "The price of jet fuel has also risen," she said. "And if you look at specifics, like, for instance, the additional cost of driving (from Baltimore or Washington, D.C.) to North Carolina's Outer Banks is only about $20. So it's not prohibitive. At least not yet."

Plus, she insists, "People are stressed out these days. Between the snow and war and the economy they need their vacations."

Globeand mail Associated Press

Caracas — The Venezuelan government has fired 828 more employees from the state oil monopoly for participating in a two-month illegal strike aimed at ousting President Hugo Chavez, the company said Thursday.

The latest dismissals brought the total number dismissed to 17,871 — almost half the 38,000-member workforce at Petroleos de Venezuela S.A., a PDVSA spokesman said.

Most PDVSA workers, including management, joined the national strike to demand Chavez's resignation or early elections.

The stoppage paralyzed the world's fifth largest oil industry and cost Venezuela some $6-billion US. But the strike fizzled last month without achieving its goal.

Despite the reduced personnel, the government says it has restored crude oil production to prestrike levels of more than three million barrels a day. Fired executives say output is 2.4 million barrels a day.

Mr. Chavez has rejected pressure from the opposition and foreign governments to reincorporate the fired workers, saying they cannot be trusted to avoid illegal strikes in future. Many also participated in an April, 2002, walkout that helped trigger a short-lived coup.

The government also says it is taking advantage of the strike to reorganize PDVSA, reduce excess bureaucracy and increase government control over the company.

The strike was supported by the country's economic elite and many in the middle class who fear plans by Mr. Chavez to distribute more of Venezuela's wealth among its poor majority.