<a href=www.sfgate.com>SFGate.com Tuesday, April 1, 2003
(04-01) 20:17 PST CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --

A court tossed out homicide charges Tuesday against four suspects in shootings that killed 19 people and helped trigger a short-lived coup against President Hugo Chavez last year.

Dozens of Chavez supporters celebrated the ruling with fireworks outside the courthouse in the central city of Maracay, 40 miles from Caracas, the state-run Venezolana de Television channel reported.

The suspects, all Chavez supporters, were released. They had pleaded innocent to the charges.

Gunfire broke out April 11, 2002, when a massive opposition march clashed with a pro-government rally in downtown Caracas. The shootings spurred a bloodless military coup that briefly ousted the leftist Chavez.

Loyalists in the military returned Chavez to power two days after the uprising.

Venezuela remains divided over Chavez's continued rule since the mid-April rebellion.

Government opponents accuse the former paratrooper of riding roughshod over democratic institutions and dragging this South American nation of 24 million into chaos with ill-defined economic policies.

Chavez claims Venezuela's opposition, including leading labor and business groups, are leading an "economic coup" with the intention of overthrowing his revolutionary government.

The judges on Tuesday did uphold lesser charges -- of improper firearm use and public intimidation -- against the four.

But defense attorney Amado Molina said they were granted conditional freedom.

<a href=www.falkland-malvinas.com>MercoPress

Venezuela is resuming shipments of unleaded gasoline from the Paraguana refinery complex, with a first U.S.-bound ship currently being loaded

Paraguana general manager Ivan Hernandez said the initial shipment consists of 360,000 barrels of unleaded gasoline, with each barrel holding 159 liters (42 gallons) of gas.

The refinery, one of the world's largest, is located on Venezuela's central coast. Hernandez told the state news agency Venpres that the shipment would leave for the United States on Wednesday aboard the Nico Cuarto tanker.

The shipment will be the first to leave the Paraguana complex since an opposition-led general strike paralyzed the oil sector from Dec. 2 to Feb. 2.

Additional shipments of 250,000 and 300,000 barrels are planned for the coming days, Hernandez said, adding "We are returning to normal export levels." The complex's refineries are operating at optimal conditions and are able to meet the demands of the domestic gasoline market, despite the disruption caused by the 63-day strike, he said. The strike was organized by opposition labor and business groups to force President Hugo Chavez to resign or call early elections.

The opposition blames Chavez, an avowed leftist, and his policies for the country's economic problems.

Entomology April 02, 2003

HUNDREDS of tiny bugs will soon be released across northern Australia in a bid to kill off a nasty weed known as bellyache bush. Bellyache bush, aka Jatropha gossypiifolia, has killed hundreds of cattle, goats and horses which ate the northern pasture weed, the CSIRO said today.

"All parts of the plant are highly toxic and can kill grazing animals that eat it," CSIRO entomologist Tim Heard said.

"It is widespread right across the top of Australia, from Western Australia to north Queensland."

But the CSIRO hopes a new biological weapon - a 15mm bug known as the bellyache bush jewel bug, or Agonosoma trilineatum, will help wipe out the toxic weed.

The bug, found in Venezuela, is expected to feed on the fruit of the bellyache bush, disrupting seed production to slow down its rapid spread.

Northern Territory government weeds branch spokesman Blair Grace said it was the first time a biological control agent had been released to fight the poisonous plant.

"Biological control will never eliminate a weed, but could make it easier to control with other methods like herbicides, hand-pulling or bulldozing," he said.

He said it was safe to introduce the bug in Australia because it only eats bellyache bush.

Bellyache bush was brought to Australia from Central and South America as a garden plant about a century ago.

It is believed by some to help cure bellyaches if taken in small quantities, Dr Heard said.

"It has been used as a ... herbal remedy in many parts of the world for a very long time for actually curing bellyache," Dr Heard said.

"In low doses it's rumoured to have medicinal properties, but in high doses it can kill you."

MSN A drawn-out conflict in Iraq -- one lasting into summertime -- would further delay any recovery and hurt some companies more than others. Here's a sector-by-sector look. By Michael Brush Just two weeks into the conflict with Iraq, media commentators are already floating the dreaded Q word. Quagmire, military officials shoot back, popped up as a concern early in the conflict with Afghanistan, as well. And look how that one turned out. True. But what if this conflict does drag out through the summer because allied troops get bogged down in house-to-house combat or endless skirmishes with diehard guerilla fighters? Above all, that would be a tremendous heartache for the families of men and women fighting in Iraq or anyone else who cares deeply about them. But a drawn-out war would hurt in other ways as well, primarily by putting off the robust economic rebound needed to produce jobs and growth. Here are the highlights of how a long war might impact the economy and the market. Retail spending: more pullback? Already on shaky ground because of worries about jobs and economic growth, consumers will pull back even more as the war drags on. “This past weekend many malls did not have much foot traffic because people did not want to go out shopping amidst all this savagery they are watching in their living room,” says Kurt Barnard, president of Barnard's Retail Consulting Group. Indeed, four of the nation's biggest retailers said Monday that sales continued to suffer last week because consumers are so focused on the war. Citing what it called the "CNN effect," or shoppers staying home to watch war coverage, Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) warned that same-store sales -- sales at stores open at least a year -- will be at the low end of its forecast for March. Federated Department Stores (FD, news, msgs), Nordstrom (JWN, news, msgs) and J.C. Penney (JCP, news, msgs) offered similar warnings. Barnard thinks consumers will pull back even more if the war drags on. “People will start to feel guilty about buying things to make themselves feel good at a time when American men and women are in harm’s way,” he says. About the only thing to be spared will be spending on necessities. But that won’t save retailers, since most sell lots of discretionary goods even if they do stock plenty of staples. With capital spending at companies already weak, continued declines in consumer spending will raise fresh doubts about the prospects for overall economic growth. Exposure of U.S. companies abroad Opposition to the war tips in at 70% to 90% in many countries around the world. So it’s no surprise that war opponents are launching boycotts against U.S. products and leading campaigns that grab headlines and sometimes result in outright attacks on storefronts. Soon after the war started, Paris demonstrators smashed the windows of a McDonald's (MCD, news, msgs) restaurant, forcing police in riot gear to protect staff and customers. In Indonesia, war protestors have pasted signs on the doors of McDonald’s and other American fast-food restaurants to limit entry. Bars and restaurants in Germany have pulled Coca-Cola and Budweiser from menus. A Web site sponsored by Consumers Against War calls for boycotts of 26 top American companies (see link at left). It’s hard to imagine this won’t affect results at U.S. consumer companies. After all, companies such as Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs) get some 70% of their sales from abroad. Other U.S. companies with large foreign presences include Anheuser-Busch (BUD, news, msgs), The Gap (GPS, news, msgs), Procter & Gamble (PG, news, msgs), Colgate-Palmolive (CL, news, msgs) and Starbucks (SBUX, news, msgs). So far, money managers aren’t too concerned. “We have seen this movie before,” says Rajiv Jain, an analyst with Vontobel International Equity (VNEPX). “These things normally don’t change buying habits in a dramatic fashion or have a real impact on business.” Investors may react nevertheless, selling off shares in these companies. And sustained boycotts in a drawn-out war scenario would do some damage. The companies above declined to comment on foreign sales trends since the start of the conflict with Iraq. The ailing airlines Expect more losses because a prolonged war and fears of terror strikes would ground more business travelers and tourists. As of March 23, airline traffic was off 7% domestically and 25% for cross-Atlantic flights. Domestic bookings were down more than 20%. Higher fuel prices, meanwhile, are pinching airlines on costs. Salvation for airlines could come from two corners. The government might step in with bailout packages. And unions may offer enough concessions to keep troubled airlines aloft. Just this week, unions at AMR Corp.'s (AMR, news, msgs) American Airlines offered just enough concessions to keep the company afloat, and US Airways Group (UAWGQ, news, msgs) emerged from bankruptcy protection. Without proper aid from government and unions, a big carrier like United Airlines parent UAL Corp. (UAL, news, msgs) could go under. While that would be bad for employees (and places like Chicago, Denver, Washington and San Francisco where United has major hubs), the loss of a major carrier could help survivors in the long run by reducing industry capacity. Potential winners include the more financially sound airlines that will pick up business, such as America West (AWA, news, msgs), Northwest Airlines (NWAC, news, msgs), Frontier Airlines (FRNT, news, msgs), and low-cost carriers Southwest Airlines (LUV, news, msgs) and JetBlue Airways (JBLU, news, msgs). (For a more detailed discussion, see my recent column, “6 airlines that win if United fails.’) The geopolitical turmoil, meanwhile, hasn’t soured the outlook among insiders at Mesa Air Group (MESA, news, msgs), notes Vickers Weekly Insider Report. Seven executives and directors bought over 68,000 shares in March at prices from $3.08 to $3.28 per share. Already, they’re winners: the stock closed Tuesday at $5.34. Bonds, gold and the dollar If the war is long, expect bonds and gold to strengthen. The dollar and cyclical stocks will weaken. “Putting aside the overriding humanitarian considerations, the market wants to see this conflict end as soon as possible so that confidence will come back for consumers and business,” says Jim Moltz, an equity strategist with International Strategy and Investment Group (ISI), a New York investment research firm. Until that happens, bonds will likely advance as investors favor fixed income holdings over stocks, which will perform poorly in a sluggish economy spooked by an ongoing war. Higher bond prices mean lower interest rates. And that would hurt the dollar as investors move money elsewhere. “In a slow economy, the two-year Treasury yield could fall through historic lows and that kind of environment would be just awful for the dollar,” says Chris Orndorff, a money manager at Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. Lower rates might spark another mortgage refinance cycle. But where that cash ends up will depend on the mood of the consumer, says Patrick Alwell, a bond market analyst for ISI. He points out cash levels among individuals recently rose 18% over last year. Consumers may also opt to pay down debt. The dollar would also lose some of its “safe haven” status as investors worry about the effects of more terror strikes on the economy. All these factors would be positive for the euro and the Swiss franc, says Orndorff. A weak dollar, meanwhile, would nudge up the price of gold. Because gold is priced in dollars, it looks cheaper to foreigners as the dollar declines. So they buy more. Second, the worries weighing on the dollar -- from war and terrorism to U.S. economic weakness -- push investors towards hard assets like gold, says Jay Shartsis, of the brokerage R.F. Lafferty & Co. in New York. Shartsis also likes gold stocks because investors are so bearish about them. Often, groups of stocks reverse a downward trend whenever investor fear about them nears peak levels. Shartsis says investor bearishness on gold stocks recently got close, based on the large number of put options purchased on gold stocks. Investors buy puts when they are bearish about stocks, because puts give them the right to sell stocks at a pre-arranged price, even if the stocks tank. Outlook for oil Near term, the Kirkuk oil fields in Northern Iraq are the key factor to watch. “If the Republican Guard lights them up, you could see oil go up several dollars a barrel,” says Tom Petrie of Petrie Parkman, an energy-related investment bank in Denver. Not that the fields contribute that much to world production. “But you would have the yellow flames on the screen, and psychologically that would be the backdrop for oil traders.” In this scenario, oil could spike into the upper $30 range for a short period. Otherwise, several forces easing demand will keep oil prices in the $25 to $30 per barrel range -- despite war jitters and problems with supply from Venezuela and Nigeria, says Petrie. First, the home heating season is behind us. Second, if world economic growth slows because of a prolonged war, that will reduce demand for oil. Energy companies that may outperform if oil holds in the $25 to $30 per barrel range include independent producers such as Westport Resources (WRC, news, msgs), Forest Oil (FST, news, msgs) and Cimarex Energy (XEC, news, msgs), says Petrie. No cakewalk for defense sector To get the crass question out of the way, no, a prolonged war probably won’t help defense stocks. First of all, ammunition and ordnance comes out of hefty stockpiles which are replenished at a rate set awhile back -- with foreseeable conflicts in mind. Plus the war won’t increase production of the big-ticket items that account for the lion’s share of revenue, said Paul Nisbet, a defense sector analyst at JSA Research in Newport, R.I. That means planes, ships, vehicles and missile defense systems. Meantime, perhaps surprisingly, if the war drags on very long, spending on defense projects could actually drop. That’s because spending to support the troops on the ground could crowd out planned outlays for hardware. This very thing happened during the Vietnam era. To be sure, defense stocks are trading down with the market, and some believe they’re a good buy for long-term investors -- no matter what the length of the war. But ironically, a long war calls all assumptions into question. Money flow to Asian markets As investors shy away from U.S. stocks in a prolonged war scenario, some of their money will flow to parts of the world removed from the conflict and experiencing economic growth -- like China. Since the start of the year, China’s Shanghai Composite has advanced 10% while the S&P 500 is off by about 2%. “They are far from the mess,” says Orndorff. “And those markets are not typically correlated with the U.S. markets. Europe is somewhat tethered to the U.S. economically.”

At the time of publication, Michael Brush did not own or control shares in any of the companies listed in this column.

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URL 2003-04-02 / Reuters /

Sixteen Colombian journalists working in a region where U.S. special forces are providing anti-guerrilla training said they were fleeing to the capital Bogota on Monday after receiving death threats from gunmen, a media rights group and colleagues said.

Paris-based Reporters Without Borders (RSF) said leftist rebels and right-wing militias fighting in Colombia's four-decade-old war had separately declared the journalists in the eastern, oil-rich province of Arauca "military targets" and warned them they should leave or face being killed.

Rodrigo Avila, a correspondent for Caracol TV and one of the journalists threatened, said local radio stations in Arauca were only playing music and airing cultural programs.

"The rebels' idea is to silence the press in the capital of Arauca and unfortunately they are achieving it. We are forced to shut up and find a solution," Avila told reporters.

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known as the FARC, produced a list of eight journalists, while the right wing paramilitaries, known as the AUC, threatened another eight, and also named two who had previously been killed.

One of the men named, Eduardo Alfonso, was gunned down and killed two weeks ago by suspected far-right paramilitaries as he arrived for work at an Arauca radio station. His boss, Efrain Varela, was killed last year.

War-ravaged Colombia is one of the most dangerous places in the world for reporters, according to media watch groups.

President Alvaro Uribe late last year declared Arauca, a steamy area of savannas and swamps on the border with Venezuela, a special war zone, giving security forces extra powers to control movements and check identities.

The measures, which have been strongly criticized by rights groups, have had little effect on violence in the province, which has been hit by a rebel car-bombing campaign.

About 70 U.S. special forces are in Arauca province training Colombian troops to combat guerrillas and defend a key oil pipeline.

Local police say they do not have enough bodyguards to protect the threatened journalists.

"We ask the government to guarantee the security of the journalists threatened in the province of Arauca," RSF said in a news release. "The absence of journalists is an open door for more abuses."

Journalists in Arauca routinely face harassment and threats from rebels and militias fighting for control of oil proceeds and the booming drug trade.

In January, rebels held a British reporter and an American photographer hostage for almost two weeks, in a kidnapping which drew worldwide attention. Attacks on local reporters hardly ever make international headlines.