Emerging debt-Brazil zooms higher as reform cheer endures
Posted by click at 2:19 AM
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Reuters, 04.01.03, 12:25 PM ET
By Susan Schneider
NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) - Brazil's sovereign bonds swooped higher on Tuesday, building on a heady 20 percent return carved out in the first quarter, as the new government's promised reforms of the pension and tax systems lured investors searching for high-yielding assets.
Brazil's share of J.P. Morgan's Emerging Market Bond Index Plus jumped 1.39 percent on the day, underpinned by a 1.5 point gain in the benchmark C bond <BRAZILC=RR> to 80.5 bid. Brazil's spreads over comparable U.S. Treasuries -- the premium investors demand to compensate for risk -- narrowed 40 basis points to 1,008, or 10.08 percentage points.
Investors have poured a steady stream of funds into Brazilian bonds in recent weeks on optimism that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva can patch together Congressional approval for the key reforms, which are seen as crucial if Latin America's largest economy wants to improve its fiscal health.
"At this point, Brazil is one of the few places where investors can find high yield in fixed income," said Ricardo Amorim, head of Latin American research at research firm IDEAGlobal. "
A continued rally "will basically depend on how well the reforms go. If Lula is able to approve the social security reform in coming months, I would expect to see the EMBI-Plus for Brazil going below 700 (basis points)," said Amorim.
Lula once struck fear in the hearts of investors because of his political inexperience and his talk of debt renegotiation in previous political campaigns. The Lula angst helped Brazilian bond spreads balloon to a massive 24 percent over U.S. Treasuries last year.
The union boss-turned-president, who took office at the turn of the year, has since won over Wall Street with respected cabinet appointments, promises to keep a tight lid on spending and the reform pledges. Lula said last week he would send Congress the social security and tax overhauls this month.
Brazil's bonds have also benefited from the momentum of last week's Inter-American Development Bank meeting of investors and officials in Milan, said traders.
"People are coming back from the conference bulled up on optimism over Brazil," said an emerging debt trader.
Brazil's neighbors also made rosy showings on Tuesday. Venezuela's share of the EMBI-Plus increased 1.48 percent on the day, while Ecuador added 1.45 percent. Oil prices, sizzling on concerns the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq will cause crude supply disruptions, have aided the bonds of both oil-producing nations, said analysts.
The broader index, meanwhile, added 0.65 percent in terms of daily returns.
POWELL VISIT PULLS TURKEY HIGHER
Turkish bonds also hovered in positive territory after U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said late Monday he would visit Turkey on Wednesday, a trip that buoyed hopes the two nations can improve their strained relations. A U.S. official requesting anonymity called it a "kiss and make up" visit.
Turkey's share of the EMBI-Plus added 0.54 percent on the day, with the benchmark 2030 dollar bond <TRGLB30=RR> adding 1 point to 88.875 percent of face value.
Turkish-U.S. relations hit a rough patch after Turkey refused to allow Iraq-bound U.S. ground troops to use its territory. The move killed a U.S. offer of some $30 billion in aid and loans to Turkey, which needs the cash to shield its fragile economy from the financial fallout of the Iraq war.
The fears about U.S.-Turkish relations and worries about the fate of the economy without U.S. aid helped shave 10.6 percent off the value of Turkey's bonds in the first quarter, according to the EMBI-Plus.
(Additional reporting by Alexander Manda in London)
(Reporting by Susan Schneider, Reuters Messaging: susan.schneider.reuters.com@reuters.net, tel: +1 646 223 6319)
OPEC's President: "No Shortage Of Oil"
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If Anything, Says Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Attiyah, The Producing Nations' Biggest Fear Is A Post-war Price Collapse
In the run-up to the war in Iraq, crude oil prices shot to levels not seen since the last Persian Gulf crisis. Since the war began, however, prices have dropped back to earth. Crude oil at the New York Mercantile Exchange is hovering close to $30 a barrel, a far cry from the nearly $40-a-barrel levels seen a few weeks ago. Indeed, according to Geneva-based energy consultancy Petrologistics, the cartel boosted production by 1.3 million barrels a day in March.
Still, with the war's course so uncertain, oil prices are likely to see volatile times in the days and weeks to come. What lies ahead? On Mar. 27, Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah, the president of OPEC and Qatar's Energy Minister, spoke to BusinessWeek's Laura Cohn in Doha, Qatar, about the adequacy of energy supplies, the mood at OPEC, and what will happen to oil prices after the war. Following are edited excerpts of their conversation:
Q: What are you doing to ensure that there will be adequate energy supplies? A: More oil has been produced and brought to the market. That's why the price has dropped dramatically. If you ask yourself, why has the price dropped very dramatically -- almost more than $7 in 10 days? There's more oil in the market, and the world can absorb it. Also, don't forget Venezuela is coming back [into the market as a producer].
If you go back to December [with strikes and unrest in Venezuela], we saw 3 million barrels suddenly disappear...[but it's] coming back. Now, people are concerned about Nigeria, but this is only temporary.
Q: Iraq has asked other Arab nations not to increase their production. What's your reaction to that? A: They had the right to ask. Iraq is a member of OPEC, and anyone as a member of OPEC has the right to discuss [anything] with other members. But OPEC and major oil producers are working together to stabilize the oil markets.
We are not aiming to produce just to produce. We aim to stabilize the oil market. We aim to seek a balance between demand and supply. OPEC is an international organization. It is not a political organization.
Q: How often are you in consultation with your OPEC colleagues? A: Not daily, but we are in consultation all the time. I do a lot of consultation with my OPEC colleagues, with non-OPEC colleagues. We try to see how to manage it. In reality, oil prices are always underestimated.
From 1985-2000, the average price of a barrel of oil was only $18. Sometimes it's exaggerated. When oil prices go to $30, consumers start crying. But when you take the average of the last 15 years, [you see] you shouldn't blame oil producers.
Q: Do you have any plans for an emergency OPEC meeting? A: Why should we meet? There is no shortage of oil. The price has dropped. So it's not [like] we have an agenda that would attract us to meet. If we have something to push us, yes. If there's a big shortage of oil, prices skyrocket, then we [will] have something to say.
My main concern is that after the war, we will see the oil price collapse. Demand and economic growth now are not good. The world is in recession, and this is reflected in consumption. This is a story we have to be very careful about.
Q: If the war drags on, won't oil prices rise again? A: I cannot predict what will happen. Some analysts said once the war starts, oil will reach $100. Do not believe analysts. When I went to America for school in 1970, there was a very famous song [by The Undisputed Truth] that said "Smiling faces sometimes they don't tell the truth." Analysts never give the truth. All scenarios are open. This is my concern.
Q: In your view, why did the price of oil go up so much before the war started? A: It was because of the speculators. They hijacked the oil market. We always said there's a high war premium. It was more than $7. Now the market has become more pragmatic.
Venezuela annualized March inflation at 34.1 pct
Reuters, 04.01.03, 10:54 AM ET
CARACAS, Venezuela, April 1 (Reuters) - Venezuela's annualized inflation rose to 34.1 percent in March compared with 17.6 percent a year before, as the oil-rich economy struggled with recession and the aftershocks of a crippling two-month strike, the Central Bank reported on Tuesday.
Inflation was 0.8 percent in March compared with 4.2 percent in March 2002. Accumulated inflation to March was 9.4 percent compared with 7 percent a year earlier. Venezuela's inflation closed 2002 at 31.2 percent, the highest level in five years and more than double the 12.3 percent recorded in 2001.
Venezuela, the world's No. 5 oil exporter, is struggling with political and economic crisis after the opposition strike aimed at ousting leftist President Hugo Chavez disrupted its vital petroleum output.
US refining profits above normal on gasoline supply
Posted by click at 2:02 AM
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Reuters, 04.01.03, 10:48 AM ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. average oil refining margins slipped for the third week in a row last week, but thin gasoline supplies kept margins well above normal for this time of year, a report said Tuesday.
U.S. margins slipped 91 cents to $6.21 per barrel, much above the $4 mid-cycle average, the Salomon Smith Barney report said.
U.S. gasoline stocks fell 2 million barrels to 199 million barrels, about 16 million barrels less than this time last year, the federal government reported last week.
Despite the drop in gasoline stocks reported last week, U.S. refiners were expecting gasoline from Venezuela soon -- the first since a two-month strike that began late last year.
The first cargo should leave Venezuela on Wednesday, according to the state oil company. It will hold some 360,000 barrels. The journey takes about five days.
Margins were highest in California, despite slipping $1.05 to $11.59 per barrel. Midwest margins slipped 47 cents to $7.05 per barrel. East Coast Brent margins slipped $1.22 to $6.78 per barrel. Profits were lowest in the U.S. Gulf Coast, which dropped $1.28 to $4.60 per barrel.
U.S. refiners may have had a profitable first quarter this year as cold weather, and the workers strike in Venezuela bit into gasoline and heating oil stocks. First quarter refining margins averaged $5.84 per barrel, almost double the year ago level, the report said.
Court of Appeal Upholds Ruling of Supreme Court of Belize on Chalillo Project
ST-JOHN'S, NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR, Apr 1, 2003 (<a href=www.stockhouse.ca>CCNMatthews via COMTEX) --
Belize Electric (BECOL), a subsidiary of Fortis Inc. (TSX: FTS), issued the following media release earlier today. Court of Appeal Upholds Ruling of Supreme Court of Belize on Chalillo Project
The Court of Appeal yesterday upheld the ruling of the Supreme Court of Belize confirming appropriate approval of the Macal River Upstream Storage Facility ('Chalillo Project'). The earlier ruling by Chief Justice Abdulai Conteh, on December 19, 2002, held that all approvals for the Chalillo Project were in order and that the Department of Environment ('DOE') should hold a public hearing so that BECOL could further incorporate feedback from the public in carrying out the project. In compliance with Chief Justice Conteh's ruling, a hearing was held on January 16, 2003.
The ruling of the Court of Appeal marks the third consecutive failure by the environmental group, Belize Alliance for Conservation Non-Government Organizations ('BACONGO'), to stop construction of the Chalillo Project through legal challenges. In June 2002, the Supreme Court dismissed a suit filed by BACONGO against the Public Utilities Commission of Belize and, six months later, Chief Justice Conteh handed down his ruling confirming all approvals by the National Environmental Appraisal Committee and the DOE were in order.
'BECOL has consistently maintained that the Chalillo Project is without doubt the best energy supply option to meet the growing energy demands of Belize,'says BECOL Director, Lynn Young. 'We have been diligent in our efforts to ensure BECOL follows all rules and regulations in getting approvals for construction of the Chalillo Project. The Courts have once again vindicated us from all the misleading and spurious claims of BACONGO and the Washington-based Natural Resources Defense Council.'
Young added that the war in Iraq and the strike in Venezuela have had significant impacts on the cost of world oil prices which underscores the importance for countries like Belize to secure energy sources which are not dependent on fossil fuels.
Fortis Inc. Ms. Donna Hynes Manager, Investor and Public Relations (709)737-2800 (709)737-5307 (FAX)
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