www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 12:55:14 PM By: Charlie Hopkinson

Date: Mon, 3 Feb 2003 16:33:32 -0000 From: Charlie Hopkinson charlie@dragoman.co.uk To: Editor@vheadline.com Subject: Foreign Tour Operators

Dear Editor: Dragoman is an overland tour operator that brings in-bound tourists to Venezuela throughout the year.   We operate through Asia, Africa and Latin America and believe that we have fair knowledge of the areas that we visit and good grasp of the political and security situations in the most of the countries that we travel through.

The recent political problems in Venezuela have meant that our programs there have been completely disrupted.

In actual fact it was not directly because of the political and civil unrest that we have had to cancel our trips to Venezuela ... but rather because of the British Foreign & Commonwealth Advice concerning the current situation.

This advise stipulates.... "We advise against all but essential travel to Venezuela, including the island of Margarita, for the time being because of the serious political situation and shortages of food and fuel. If you do have to travel to Venezuela, you should take great care with your security arrangements. If you are already in Venezuela, you should leave the country unless you consider your presence there is essential...."

Tourism is not considered essential.

This advice means that,  no matter what the reality of the situation in Venezuela, we cannot bring tourists to Venezuela.  If we do,  various insurance policies that we hold could be nullified and the company become directly liable for any situation affecting our groups.

• This advice appears to be in conflict with what we are being told by a variety of sources in and around Venezuela.  Not only is this bad for our company, but ten times worse for Venezuela's lucrative tourist industry.

I wonder whether the local tourist industry and the Venezuelans employed within that industry, know that if it were not for the Western Governments advice (which appears to follow the US advice), most inbound tour operators would be bringing tourists back to Venezuela?

What is even more surprising is that we are being advised not to visit Venezuela when there has been no specific threat to foreign tourists ... and yet we are told we can continue visiting Zanzibar in Tanzania, despite a specific threat being issued.

I wonder whether the advice is politically motivated in any way?

I also wonder what Venezuelans feel about the advice that we foreigners are being given.  Do they realize that the outside world is being told that Venezuela is one of  the most dangerous places to visit in the world?

Charlie Hopkinson charlie@dragoman.co.uk

www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 1:37:59 PM By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: I am, as many VHeadline readers already know, a member of the Venezuelan sector which opposes the continuation of the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.

I also oppose a coup d'etat against the government, similar to the one Chavez attempted in 1992 to unseat democratically elected President Carlos Andres Perez. Perez, as you might remember, was later displaced from the Presidency by the Constitutional action of a true Attorney General, by reasons of misuse of government funds.

For those who remember that process, the reasons utilized at the time by the Attorney General were pale in comparison to the documented (and even admitted by Chavez on national TV) misuse of government funds by the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.

This double standard has a clear explanation ... the Attorney General who forced Perez out was an honest and independent man ... the current Attorney General is a dishonest man, totally subservient to the government.

Where are we now?

At this point in time, the civic national strike is ending in its original form and is being replaced by an open attitude of civil disobedience which will take multiple forms.

After 60 days of significant national stoppage, many commercial sectors are returning to partial activity. The reason is simple ... thousands of small and medium size businesses are financially hurt. Many are already beyond salvation, and most have suffered significantly.

This is the truth.

It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the civic, national strike was simply a self-inflicted wound by those who oppose Chavez. It would also be simplistic to assume ... although I imagine the temptation will be great ... that Chavez has emerged victorious.

The truth is that both sides have suffered tremendous material losses.

The opposition has left thousands of bankrupt private companies on the battlefield, many members of the middle class unemployed and important feelings of frustration and anguish in millions of citizens who wanted a rapid resolution to the crisis.

The government has been left on the brink of insolvency, destroying PDVSA ... its main source of income, is being forced to take the opposition very seriously and obliged, in order to survive, to drop the mask of democracy that had worn with great skill for many months. International opinion about Chavez has now shifted importantly.

In Europe, and the US, they no longer view him as a well-meaning if un-cultured democrat ... they now see him as a throw back to the 19th century type of strong man with a populist and authoritarian approach to power. The failure of this model has been total in the past, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome this time.

An obvious result of the strike has been to illustrate the enormous size of the  population that wants Chavez out ... the size, frequency and geographical diversity of the marches staged by Chavez' adversaries leave little doubt to impartial observers that the majority has long shifted from the government to the opposition ... this has forced Chavez to rely more and more on the armed forces to cling to power.

But we have already seen that once a government loses the required popular support and leans on the armed forces, their survival becomes, at best, a short term proposition.

As I write this, there is a gigantic sign-in going on all over Venezuela. I am not aware of a similar event ever taking place anywhere else. The people of Venezuela decided to stage an "election" ... manning the electoral sites with civilian volunteers ... to ask citizens if they want Chavez to go or to stay.

This is the Venezuelan's answer to the grotesque maneuver by a illegitimate group of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice which invalidated the Consultative Referendum. We are fighting illegality with legality, anti-constitutional force with constitutional power, military savagery with civilized attitudes ... the contrast is so great that the world is finally taking notice.

The outcome of the crisis ... in a favorable scenario for the opposition ... will probably take the shape of a revocatory referendum on August 19, followed by an early Presidential election, as proposed by former President Carter and already accepted by them.

The government has not agreed to this, and is not expected to agree, as they are most unwilling to be counted.

In parallel, the deterioration of the social, economic and political conditions of Venezuela is advancing at such a rapid pace that the pressure for a rapid resolution to the crisis is mounting.

This is a most dangerous ingredient, especially when combined with indications that the government will resort to all legal and illegal maneuvering to stay in power.

If all doors to a civilized, electoral solution are closed by Chavez, this country will erupt in violence. We have already seen that Chavez is an adept to violence ... his actions in 1992 and in April 2002 caused almost 200 deaths.

As governing is clearly beyond his capability, he will resort to force to try to dictate his will to the people. A civil war would be our ultimate tragedy but, unfortunately, this is the preferred Chavez scenario and the only chance he has to stay in power ... provided, of course, that the Armed Forces keep loyal to him instead of being loyal to Venezuela.

This is where we are today.

Venezuela is entering an acute period of economic depression and political degradation. We have inflation at almost 40%, exchange controls, price controls (ineffective and damaging in the long run), a government budget financed by new debt, the media in danger of being closed down, the military confiscating foodstuffs to sell to third parties without accounting for the proceeds, laws being passed in a hurry by the government majority in the National Assembly to obtain definitive control of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, military officers like the "burping" General emerging as Chavez' main supporters, military officers like General Baduel as shareholders of a TV station which is contracting propaganda with the government, criminals like Orlando Castro ... relatively fresh from prison in the US for fraud ... as one of the intellectual mentors of the government.

We are entering the dark ages and hope Carter ... who looks like Gandalf ... can give us a hand.

PS -- Several sign-in centers of the opposition, all over the country, are being attacked at this moment by violent groups of government "sympathizers" ... this will make some citizens afraid to sign. More than the net effect of these violent activities, what they show is the contrast between real Democracy and Gorilla-ism. Two days hence, on February 4, the government will "celebrate" the failed coup of 1992 ... the immoral celebration of a bloody, criminal coup is yet another sign of the totalitarian nature of this government. Is there now any doubt?

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve

www.dw-world.de   Venezuela's opposition has declared its 63-day general strike ended, except in the oil sector, and has switched tack by launching a non- binding petition telling President Hugo Chavez to hold elections. A defiant Chavez claimed he had defeated strikers, saying oil production was approaching two million barrels per day, around two-thirds the normal level. Strikers put output at one million. Chavez has also rejected an early election, saying the constitution did not allow a referendum until August

www.smartmoney.com February 3, 2003

CARACAS (AP)--Banks, shopping malls, factories and schools opened Monday as opponents of President Hugo Chavez eased a 64-day-old strike, a day after hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans signed petitions demanding his resignation.

On Sunday, opponents signed the petitions, including one that would cut Chavez' term from six years to four. Organizers claimed 4 million citizens signed. The figure could not be verified.

"The pen is our weapon," said Julio Borges of the opposition party Justice First. "Today demonstrates that the struggle hasn't ended. It didn't end with the strike."

Chavez claimed victory over his foes after they agreed Friday to ease the already-waning strike to protect businesses from bankruptcy.

"They have the 'F' of failure on their foreheads," Chavez gloated while congratulating his government for completing four years in power Sunday. "Today we crown the victory and continue with an offensive strategy."

Labeling his opponents as "coup-plotters, fascists and terrorists," Chavez vowed that the strike leaders would pay for the damage to the nation. "They can't remain unpunished ... They must go to prison."

Stores began filling up with products that had become scarce, including fresh milk, juice and bottled drinking water. Lines disappeared at banks, which restored normal working hours for the first time in two months.

Universities and many schools resumed classes. Other schools were holding assemblies to decide whether to open this week. Strike organizers said shopping malls and factories would be opening part-time.

Strike leaders said the walkout would continue in the oil industry, which provides half of government revenue and 70% of export earnings. But lines at service stations in Caracas were also diminishing as the government gradually increased oil production.

Crude oil production is at about 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Chavez. Production was 3 million barrels a day in November and dipped as low as 150,000 barrels a day at the height of the strike. Striking workers say output is now slightly over 1 million barrels.

The most popular initiative on the petition is a constitutional amendment that would cut Chavez's term from six to four years. It needed the signatures of 15% of the electorate - or about 1.8 million people - and would clear the way for general elections later this year.

The opposition set up 4,000 tables nationwide Sunday to gather signatures. Even though they appeared to have gotten far more signatures than they needed, opposition leaders said they would seek more on Monday.

"We feel that they have taken our freedom to express ourselves," said Marisela Gaye, an insurance worker who was waiting to sign in Plaza Francia in eastern Caracas.

A popular opposition rallying ground, the plaza was filled with people waiting to add their names to the lists. Many dressed up their babies in the red, yellow and blue of Venezuela's national flag and brought dogs wearing sweaters with the same colors. The crowd frequently broke into chants of: "It's going to fall, it's going to fall, the government is going to fall!"

A nonbinding referendum on Chavez's rule was originally scheduled for Sunday. Business, labor and opposition groups called the strike Dec. 2 to pressure Chavez into accepting the vote, but the Supreme Court suspended the referendum because of a technicality.

Government and opposition have been locked in negotiations mediated by Organization of American States Secretary General Cesar Gaviria since November, but failed to end the stalemate. What to do with the striking oil workers remains a major sticking point.

As many as 35,000 of the industry's 40,000 workers joined the strike, but most have returned to work, the government says. Chavez has fired more than 5,000 who refused.

Chavez was first elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000 with 60% of the vote. He promised radical change in the oil-rich South American country, where 80% of 24 million people live in poverty.

Chavez's opponents accuse him of driving the economy into the ground while bulldozing the country's democratic institutions.

www.dw-world.de   Venezuela's opposition has declared its 63-day general strike ended, except in the oil sector, and switched tack by launching a non- binding petition telling President Hugo Chavez to hold elections. A defiant Chavez claimed he had defeated strikers, saying oil production was approaching two million barrels per day, around two-thirds the normal level. Strikers put output at one million. The opposition petition has 3.7 million signatures, according to organisers. Chavez has rejected an early election, saying the constitution does not allow a referendum until August. On Sunday, five people were hurt as police intervened between Chavez supporters and opponents who'd queued to sign the petition.