Both sides have suffered tremendous material losses
www.vheadline.com Posted: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 1:37:59 PM By: Gustavo Coronel
VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: I am, as many VHeadline readers already know, a member of the Venezuelan sector which opposes the continuation of the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.
I also oppose a coup d'etat against the government, similar to the one Chavez attempted in 1992 to unseat democratically elected President Carlos Andres Perez. Perez, as you might remember, was later displaced from the Presidency by the Constitutional action of a true Attorney General, by reasons of misuse of government funds.
For those who remember that process, the reasons utilized at the time by the Attorney General were pale in comparison to the documented (and even admitted by Chavez on national TV) misuse of government funds by the Presidency of Hugo Chavez.
This double standard has a clear explanation ... the Attorney General who forced Perez out was an honest and independent man ... the current Attorney General is a dishonest man, totally subservient to the government.
Where are we now?
At this point in time, the civic national strike is ending in its original form and is being replaced by an open attitude of civil disobedience which will take multiple forms.
After 60 days of significant national stoppage, many commercial sectors are returning to partial activity. The reason is simple ... thousands of small and medium size businesses are financially hurt. Many are already beyond salvation, and most have suffered significantly.
This is the truth.
It would be a mistake, however, to assume that the civic, national strike was simply a self-inflicted wound by those who oppose Chavez. It would also be simplistic to assume ... although I imagine the temptation will be great ... that Chavez has emerged victorious.
The truth is that both sides have suffered tremendous material losses.
The opposition has left thousands of bankrupt private companies on the battlefield, many members of the middle class unemployed and important feelings of frustration and anguish in millions of citizens who wanted a rapid resolution to the crisis.
The government has been left on the brink of insolvency, destroying PDVSA ... its main source of income, is being forced to take the opposition very seriously and obliged, in order to survive, to drop the mask of democracy that had worn with great skill for many months. International opinion about Chavez has now shifted importantly.
In Europe, and the US, they no longer view him as a well-meaning if un-cultured democrat ... they now see him as a throw back to the 19th century type of strong man with a populist and authoritarian approach to power. The failure of this model has been total in the past, and there is no reason to expect any different outcome this time.
An obvious result of the strike has been to illustrate the enormous size of the population that wants Chavez out ... the size, frequency and geographical diversity of the marches staged by Chavez' adversaries leave little doubt to impartial observers that the majority has long shifted from the government to the opposition ... this has forced Chavez to rely more and more on the armed forces to cling to power.
But we have already seen that once a government loses the required popular support and leans on the armed forces, their survival becomes, at best, a short term proposition.
As I write this, there is a gigantic sign-in going on all over Venezuela. I am not aware of a similar event ever taking place anywhere else. The people of Venezuela decided to stage an "election" ... manning the electoral sites with civilian volunteers ... to ask citizens if they want Chavez to go or to stay.
This is the Venezuelan's answer to the grotesque maneuver by a illegitimate group of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice which invalidated the Consultative Referendum. We are fighting illegality with legality, anti-constitutional force with constitutional power, military savagery with civilized attitudes ... the contrast is so great that the world is finally taking notice.
The outcome of the crisis ... in a favorable scenario for the opposition ... will probably take the shape of a revocatory referendum on August 19, followed by an early Presidential election, as proposed by former President Carter and already accepted by them.
The government has not agreed to this, and is not expected to agree, as they are most unwilling to be counted.
In parallel, the deterioration of the social, economic and political conditions of Venezuela is advancing at such a rapid pace that the pressure for a rapid resolution to the crisis is mounting.
This is a most dangerous ingredient, especially when combined with indications that the government will resort to all legal and illegal maneuvering to stay in power.
If all doors to a civilized, electoral solution are closed by Chavez, this country will erupt in violence. We have already seen that Chavez is an adept to violence ... his actions in 1992 and in April 2002 caused almost 200 deaths.
As governing is clearly beyond his capability, he will resort to force to try to dictate his will to the people. A civil war would be our ultimate tragedy but, unfortunately, this is the preferred Chavez scenario and the only chance he has to stay in power ... provided, of course, that the Armed Forces keep loyal to him instead of being loyal to Venezuela.
This is where we are today.
Venezuela is entering an acute period of economic depression and political degradation. We have inflation at almost 40%, exchange controls, price controls (ineffective and damaging in the long run), a government budget financed by new debt, the media in danger of being closed down, the military confiscating foodstuffs to sell to third parties without accounting for the proceeds, laws being passed in a hurry by the government majority in the National Assembly to obtain definitive control of the Supreme Tribunal of Justice, military officers like the "burping" General emerging as Chavez' main supporters, military officers like General Baduel as shareholders of a TV station which is contracting propaganda with the government, criminals like Orlando Castro ... relatively fresh from prison in the US for fraud ... as one of the intellectual mentors of the government.
We are entering the dark ages and hope Carter ... who looks like Gandalf ... can give us a hand.
PS -- Several sign-in centers of the opposition, all over the country, are being attacked at this moment by violent groups of government "sympathizers" ... this will make some citizens afraid to sign. More than the net effect of these violent activities, what they show is the contrast between real Democracy and Gorilla-ism. Two days hence, on February 4, the government will "celebrate" the failed coup of 1992 ... the immoral celebration of a bloody, criminal coup is yet another sign of the totalitarian nature of this government. Is there now any doubt?
Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983. In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort. You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email ppcvicep@telcel.net.ve