Thursday, December 26, 2002 Posted: 11:16 AM EST (1616 GMT) CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- The general strike against President Hugo Chavez has cut not only vital supplies of oil, but also another precious liquid in Venezuela: beer.

Since the strike began December 2, cutting into the beer supplies as the nation's top producer stopped brewing, beer-thirsty Venezuelans have had to turn to whiskey and other alternatives.

"Right now, we drunks are drinking the good stuff," Jose Gonzalez, a retired government worker, joked after buying a $28 bottle of whiskey. "But if the strike continues, we are going to end up broke."

It's a bit of a sacrifice for beer-loving Venezuelans, who like to socialize over a glass in neighborhood Spanish-style taverns or have a cold one to combat the tropical heat.

According to Cerveceria Regional, a Venezuelan subsidiary of Brazil's Brahma brewery, Venezuela is the No. 3 beer producer in Latin America.

Per capita, Venezuelans are the biggest beer consumers in Latin America, drinking an average of 20 gallons annually. Mexico comes next at 13 gallons; Brazil, 12 gallons.

But into the strike's fourth week, beer is becoming hard if not impossible to find in Caracas liquor stores and supermarkets. It is still available in many bars and restaurants, but selections have shrunk.

Merchants complain their profits will be as flat as day-old beer during what should be a peak season.

"Normally, December is the best month of the year for us. It's when we sell the most, for parties," said Marco Dos Santos, a Caracas liquor store owner. "We still have rum, whiskey, and wines, but they could be gone in a few days and we'll have to close."

Dos Santos added that no products have arrived at his shop in two weeks. Prospects of replenishment soon were dim.

Empresas Polar, Venezuela's biggest brewer and one of the world's largest, stopped production to support the strike.

Soldiers recently raided a Polar warehouse looking for other products, such as cornflower and cooking oil, after Chavez ordered authorities to distribute hoarded products deemed essential to the nation's welfare.

Beer isn't on the list, and the soldiers only found thousands of bottles waiting to be filled. Polar said it is taking legal action to prevent more raids.

By Oil & Gas J .editors ogj.pennnet.com

HOUSTON, Dec. 26 -- Oil futures prices continued a pre-Christmas rally this week, hitting 2-year highs on fears of disruption of crude supplies from Venezuela and Iraq.

On Monday, the February contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes shot up to $31.95/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange—the highest level for a front-month contract since December 2000—before closing at $31.75/bbl, up $1.45 for the day.

The March oil contract also soared by $1.22 to $30.85/bbl Monday on NYMEX. Unleaded gasoline for January delivery jumped by 3.94¢ to 91.86¢/gal. Heating oil for the same month was up 3.67¢ to 89.62¢/gal.

Tuesday, the February oil contract continued to climb, hitting a new high of $32.03/bbl before closing the abbreviated NYMEX session at $31.97/bbl, up 22¢ for the day. The March position advanced 18¢ to $31.03/bbl. Unleaded gasoline for January delivery rose 0.91¢ to 92.77¢/gal Tuesday, while heating oil gained 0.87¢ to 90.49¢/gal that day as snowstorms blanketed the key northeast US market.

The January natural gas contract Monday dropped 6.7¢ to $5.12/Mcf on NYMEX. But it regained 3¢ to $5.15/Mcf in low-volume trading Tuesday. "New weather forecasts will be key to moving the (natural gas) market after the holidays," said analysts Thursday at Enerfax Daily. "Options expire today and the January (gas) contract expires Friday. The Energy Information Administration will release its weekly natural gas storage report Friday, a day late because of the holiday." Enerfax expects EIA to report withdrawal of 100-110 bcf of gas from US underground storage during the week ended Dec. 21.

In London, the February contract for North Sea Brent oil jumped by $1.38 to $29.72/bbl Monday on the International Petroleum Exchange but then pulled back by 11¢ to $29.61/bbl on Tuesday. The January natural gas contract lost 4.9¢ to the equivalent of $3.74/Mcf Monday on IPE but rebounded Tuesday by 4.1¢ to the equivalent of $3.78/Mcf.

Meanwhile, Venezuelan government officials said they expect to have exports of crude and petroleum products back to normal by Jan. 15. Their plan involves firing the striking employees of state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA and replacing them with skilled workers from the US, Europe, and Latin American countries.

But striking PDVSA employees and independent observers claim the company cannot resume operations that quickly.

El referéndum consultivo que se efectuará en Venezuela el 02 de febrero de 2003 está contemplado en el artículo 71 de la Constitución Nacional aprobada en 1999. Su convocatoria y realización es obligante porque se ajusta plenamente al artículo 5 de dicha constitución que reza así: “ La soberanía reside intransferiblemente en el pueblo quien la ejerce directamente en la forma prevista en esta Constitución y en la ley, e indirectamente mediante el sufragio por los órganos que ejercen el Poder Público. Los órganos del Estado emanan de la soberanía popular y a ella están sometidos”. Los contenidos de los artículos constitucionales antes referidos invalidan totalmente todos los argumentos que sobre la supuesta inconstitucionalidad del mismo han esgrimido el Presidente Hugo Chávez y la dirigencia de los partidos gubernamentales.

Los voceros del oficialismo han indicado que el actual Consejo Electoral Nacional (CNE) no es un arbitro confiable. Al respecto se debe tener en cuenta que es muy difícil que cualquier organismo electoral sea confiable para todos los grupos políticos que participan en procesos electorales. Para los sectores opositores al chavismo, las diversas directivas del CNE que organizaron y realizaron los varios referenda convocados en Venezuela durante el año 1999, así como las elecciones generales de julio de 2000, tampoco eran confiables, y esa misma oposición muchas veces expresó severas críticas en contra de la empresa INDRA que fue la responsable de la parte tecnológica de dichos referenda. Sin embargo, la oposición siempre acató sus resultados. Lo mismo le corresponde hacer al chavismo en relación con el referéndum consultivo de febrero próximo.

Respecto a la no confiabilidad para el oficialismo de la actual directiva del CNE, es un argumento insostenible. Esta directiva no sólo fue designada en un proceso que contó con el aval de los sectores políticos que apoyan al Presidente Chávez, sino que además es notorio que esa directiva del CNE cuenta entre sus miembros a dos personas que con cierta frecuencia comparten en alguna medida importante las posiciones del oficialismo, me refiero a los señores Rómulo Lárez y Rómulo Rangel. Es de suponer que estas dos personas actuarán de buena fe vigilando todas las etapas del proceso de convocatoria y realización del referéndum consultivo. La actual directiva del CNE fue designada en el 2000 por el Congresillo, y respecto a sus integrantes el Presidente Chávez los definió en ese momento ... “como profesionales dignos de respeto por su trayectoria. Lo que tenemos que hacer ahora es apoyarlos, darles nuestro sentimiento, nuestra credibilidad. Nadie tiene moral para estar cuestionando a estas personas que han sido seleccionadas de cara al país, mirando su experiencia profesional, su currículum vitae, y hoy están asumiendo una responsabilidad". (EL NACIONAL, 06 /06/2000).

Por último, es muy evidente que si el gobierno del Presidente Chávez hubiera mostrado una conducta no obstaculizadora y descalificatoria del referéndum consultivo no hubiese ocurrido el paro cívico nacional con todas sus consecuencias negativas que padecemos los venezolanos, y el gobierno hubiera derrotado muy fácil y rápidamente la conspiración internacional que en contra del gobierno nacional y nuestra industria petrolera ha denunciado el Presidente Chávez. En consecuencia, el mundo entero debe estar asombrado de que sea el propio gobierno venezolano el que esté estimulando el paro conspirador de la oligarquía internacional y venezolana. ¿quién entiende esa forma de actuar del gobierno venezolano?. Por lo tanto, la realización del referéndum consultivo es obligante para que los venezolanos aplastemos de una buena vez y muy democráticamente esa supuesta conspiración.

Rómulo Orta.

www.brazzil.com

President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's cabinet members are mostly from his own party, the PT. Four of them are women, five have no party affiliation. Here's a list and the pictures of the new ministers and secretaries.

There were few surprises when President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finally announced the last names of his ministerial list on Monday, December 23. At the end, only six cabinet members—all of them of lesser importance—were chosen outside the PT (Workers' Party), Lula's own party. The cabinet comprises 26 ministries plus seven secretariats. Fourteen posts were offered to PT members and the rest to people with no party affiliation.

The President-elect created a few portfolios to add to the cabinet, including: Secretaria de Segurança Alimentar (Food Security Secretariat), Assistência Social (Social Welfare) and Ministério das Cidades (Cities Ministry). The new cabinet members will be sworn in with Lula when he is inaugurated on January 1st.

After announcing the complete list of his cabinet, Lula declared, "Everyone may believe that the people that have been called on may have defects, which is true of any human being. But the raw truth is that we've chosen, if not all, some of those who are going to give all of themselves for the better of this country."

The two top economic posts went to PT faithfuls. Antonio Palocci, a moderate PT aide, was chosen as Finance Minister. The post of Planning and Budget Minister—the position is being touted as a key and very powerful one— went to Guido Mantega, a university professor, and Lula's long-time economic advisor.

By JEFF GERTH

WASHINGTON Dec. 25 — As President Bush seeks to reduce American reliance on oil imported from the Persian Gulf, new government studies predict that in two decades the West will be even more dependent on oil from Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern producers.

Mr. Bush, asked a week ago on the ABC News program "20/20" about the importance of Saudi Arabian oil, said that "we must have an energy policy that diversifies away from dependency" on foreign sources of oil — including some that "don't like America."

Late last month, the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration forecast that in 2025 the majority — 51 percent — of world oil production would come from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. About two-thirds of OPEC production, in turn, emanates from the Persian Gulf. The Energy Information Administration, or E.I.A., says OPEC now produces 38 percent of the world's oil.

The information administration projects that Saudi Arabia will need to produce 22 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet increased world demand, far in excess of its current production of about 8 million barrels.

"We're going to rely more and more on the Middle East markets for oil," said Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the Paris-based International Energy Agency, or I.E.A. The group's recent World Energy Outlook, which estimates energy markets through 2030, mirrors the forecast of the American energy agency.

Government and industry oil experts widely agree that it makes sense for the United States to diversify its sources of energy. It is also possible that in the next decade increased oil from the Atlantic Basin and the Caspian Sea could make a short-term dent in American dependency on the Middle East.

"Our dependency on the Persian Gulf could take a slight dip before it goes up," said John Brodman, the deputy assistant secretary of energy for international energy policy. "But the basic geological fact of life is that 70 percent of the proven oil reserves are in the Middle East."

The importance of Saudi Arabia to long-term oil markets is different from its ability to produce extra oil quickly — an ability sometimes referred to as surge capacity. If oil markets were disrupted by a war in Iraq or strikes in Venezuela, only Saudi Arabia could increase its production within a few months to fill the gap.

The new forecasts highlight a fundamental quandary facing the United States: American dependence on Saudi oil limits the strategic options of the United States even as relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia have been strained since the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

President Bush's national security strategy, released in September, aimed to "enhance energy security" by having the United States work with allies to "expand the sources and types of global energy supplied, especially in the Western Hemisphere, Africa, Central Asia and the Caspian region."

The strategy did not mention the Persian Gulf region, which figures so prominently in the latest forecasts.

The ability of countries like Saudi Arabia to increase their production significantly is by no means a certainty. The Energy Information Administration estimates assume that "sufficient capital will be available to expand production capacity."

Furthermore, some oil experts question whether the region's old fields will be up to the task.

"The giant and supergiant oil fields are getting old, and some are clearly dying without being replaced," said Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari, a senior official in the National Iranian Oil Company. In an e-mail message sent from Iran, he questioned whether Saudi Arabia was capable of reaching 22 million barrels a day and said it would take "a miracle for OPEC to ever achieve a production of 50 million barrels per day (or more) as all three major institutions — I.E.A., E.I.A. and OPEC — are predicting for 2020."