Chávez Gaining New Strength - Venezuela's fiery president strikes back at opponents

www.newsday.com February 16, 2003 Caracas With President Hugo Chávez strengthened and plans to oust him frustrated in the wake of a failed national strike, the Venezuelan opposition is splintered and groping for a new direction. "All they can show for it [the strike] is that they managed to hold together," said Peter Hakim of the Washington-based Inter-American Dialogue, a nonpartisan think tank. "But Chávez has gained in the polls, and the opposition doesn't have any new proposals." The political landscape looked dramatically different in December, when state oil company workers walked out, crippling an industry responsible for 70 percent of Venezuela's foreign revenue. Opposition leaders expected to force Chávez to resign or agree to early elections. They also hoped to undermine Chávez by defeating him in a nonbinding Feb. 2 referendum on his rule. But Chávez withstood the strike, and the supreme court annulled the referendum on a technicality, destroying the opposition's two best weapons. The nationwide strike petered out two weeks ago when most businesses and restaurants reopened. The petroleum company managers, who formed the strike's core, have not returned to work, but they may not have a choice - the government has fired about 12,000 of them. Many of those same people also participated in a strike last April that set the stage for the military coup that ousted Chávez for two days. The opposition is now groping for a way to turn its remaining strength - the people of Venezuela, the majority of whom say Chávez is corrupt, authoritarian and too left-leaning - into a change of government. But the opposition faces a re-energized Chávez. He has gloated over the strike's collapse, saying the opposition has an "F" for failure branded on its forehead and that his "Bolivarian revolution for the poor" will now accelerate. Chávez has also gone on the offensive, threatening to prosecute strikers and proposing limits to the media, which are overwhelmingly against him. Amid the economic devastation left by the strike, Chávez has announced price and exchange controls, which he is expected to use as retaliation. He has said he won't provide "a single dollar for coup-mongers." In a nation that exports petroleum and imports nearly everything else, paying for the purchases with dollars, the government has broad discretion to target opponents. A committee appointed by Chávez will determine who gets to exchange Venezuelan currency for dollars and who doesn't. For example, during the gasoline shortages caused by the strike, Chávez foes protested with "bicycle marches" through the capital. "We [bicycle] importers expect retaliation," said Pablo Herrera, owner of a small wholesale bicycle shop. "We expect we won't be given dollars because we're not bolivarians." The lack of dollars to replenish inventories is "totally strangling the economy," said José Pineda, chief economist for the Venezuelan American Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Small businesses and the middle class have been severely debilitated. Businesses that voluntarily closed in December, confident of Chávez's ouster, are no longer in a position to protest. And without the strike and referendum to rally around, the opposition - a mix of private citizens groups, unions, businesses and political parties - has lost its solidarity. A rift has emerged between the most extreme Chávez foes and moderates willing to negotiate with the government. "Anyone who doesn't support a military coup ... is called a government sellout," said Henry Ramos, head of the opposition Democratic Action party. Opposition groups are now debating two strategies proposed by former President Jimmy Carter: a constitutional amendment to shorten the six-year presidential term and a recall referendum in August, which the constitution allows after the term's halfway point. But Chávez still has ways of blocking those options. For example, the supreme court, which the opposition calls a Chávez tool, could push back the referendum by reinterpreting the starting point of his term, which ends in 2007. "I believe that Chávez will do all he can to avoid elections," said Luis Vicente León, director of the Caracas polling firm Datanalisis. "He has a lot of mechanisms for blocking elections." Leon said polls had shown "since late 2001 that, at a ratio of around 70-30, the electorate would vote against Chávez." Still, Chávez might win if the diverse opposition fielded many candidates. "The opposition is divided amongst any number of candidates, and none of them have Chávez's proven leadership," said parliament member Tarik William Saab of Chávez's Fifth Republic Movement Party. William Dávila, a member of the Democratic Action party's executive committee, acknowledged the opposition dilemma: "If this turns into a debate of ideas, there can never be union." But the key to the crisis' outcome could lie in its economic impact. The state petroleum company is still producing only about half the crude it did before the strike, and analysts predict the gross national product will drop more than 15 percent this year. Unemployment - 16 percent last year - is expected to rise. Most Venezuelan political analysts, who generally support the opposition, predict the discontented will direct their anger at Chávez. "I think eventually it turns against the government," said Jonathan Coles, president of a Caracas business management school. "People here tend to blame the government for anything."