Bad news for Venezuela's disloyal opposition
www.vheadline.com Posted: Sunday, February 09, 2003 - 1:27:18 AM By: Charles Hardy
VHeadline.com commentarist Charles Hardy writes: I've got some bad news for the opposition to the government of President Hugo Chavez Frias. In spite of the hundreds of thousands of signatures that the Coordinadora Anti-Democratica has collected once again and in spite of the information that Datanalisis might release from another one of its telephone surveys, I have information that could be of value that was not gathered by randomly-selected phone calls to people who live outside the barrios, and who are wealthy enough to have telephones in their homes.
- For whatever it might be worth, it is simply based on un-scientific conversations with people in the streets.
Here's the bad news: in my daily contact with people in Venezuela, I have the impression that those who were with Chavez in 1998 are still with him today; and, those who didn't like him then, still don't like him now. The problem for them is that he won the 1998 elections by an almost two to one margin.
And here is even more bad news: Some who still don't like Chavez are now not ready to support the opposition either because of the effects of the strike/stoppage which they imposed on the country.
Two cases to consider:
There is a small businessman in the eastern part of the city who has never spoken well of Chavez. However, the greatest part of his yearly income is in December. Last year, he could not operate his business because of the lockout imposed by the opposition. He still damns Chavez. But only AFTER cursing the opposition.
A few days ago I spoke to the owner of a grocery store that was looted during the April 11 coup. The establishment is now open again and, with new shelves and remodeling, it is brighter and more pleasant than ever. The owner, while not happy with the looting, was pleased with the low interest loan the government gave him. The establishment was also looted in 1989, at which time no help was given by the government to recuperate. The store, by the way, has not observed the "strike" called by the opposition.
And here are some other items worth considering: I asked one bricklayer for whom he would vote if there were elections today. He replied, I always vote for the Adecos. I pursued the point since the Adecos don't have a candidate at this moment. He replied, "it really doesn't matter since Im not registered to vote and haven't voted since Carlos Andres was President!" ... he's definitely on the side of the opposition, but don't count on his vote.
I also talked to a woman who said she voted for Chavez, but was the only one in her family to do so. She said she would not vote for him again. You can't put uneducated barrio people in positions of responsibility, she said. Maybe she's right. But maybe the barrio people aren't as uneducated as she thinks they are. I sensed she was afraid of barrio people, which may indicate the opposition propaganda is making an impact. On the other hand, I talk to barrio people who are feeling more and more insulted by the opposition and who are hardening their pro-government position.
There is also a strange reaction that should be noted. When I ask opposition people for whom they would vote, the answer that I usually receive is, for whomever the Coordinadora Democratica puts forward ... I can't get them to name a candidate. It's a response similar to the man who says he always votes for the Adecos and I get the feeling that these people have simply surrendered their opinion to the leadership of the CD and their hatred for Chavez would lead them to accept anyone.
That is certainly a plus for the CD ... but it is a dangerous attitude for intelligent voting.
These remarks are only my personal observations ... but, having lost all confidence in the professionally-slanted opinion polls regularly released, I think they're worthy of consideration.
- I still think Chavez would win any election if he were allowed to be a candidate.
Only time will tell whose analysis is correct.
Charlie A native of Cheyenne, Wyoming (USA), VHeadline.com columnist Charles Hardy has many years experience as an international correspondent in Venezuela. You may email him at: hardyce2@yahoo.com