Analysis - Is There An Opposition In The House?
www.infobrazil.com by John Fitzpatrick Feb 01 - 07, 2003
John Fitzpatrick is an occasional guest Editor on InfoBrazil. He is a Scottish Journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has been based in São Paulo since 1995. His 27-year career in journalism includes stints as a Reporter in Scotland and England, Deputy Editor of an English-language daily newspaper in Cyprus, News Editor of a radio station in Switzerland, Financial Correspondent in Zurich and São Paulo, and Editor of a magazine published by one of Switzerland's largest banks. He currently runs Celtic Comunicações, a São Paulo company which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients.
It's payback time for President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who now has to settle up his accounts with the disparate band of opportunists who put their shoulders to the wheel and pushed him to power. The main supporters outside Lula's own PT – the PL, PPS, PC do B, sections of the PFL and PMDB – are already being paid back with positions and promises that they will get their share of the pie, when jobs in various government areas are distributed to the boys.
Among those who have been rewarded is Ciro Gomes, who stood against Lula in the presidential race as the PPS party candidate. Now sporting a beard, like so many members of the current government, Gomes is a cabinet member and back in the limelight. Former President Jose Sarney of the PMDB, who represents the old-fashioned Northeastern oligarch style of politics which the PT is supposed to be against, is almost certain to be elected the next Senate President on February 1st*.
There is nothing especially noteworthy about this, since any coalition or grand alliance brings odd partnerships. And Lula's catch-all policy has given him a strong position. According to the “O Estado de São Paulo” newspaper, the new Congress, in office as of February 1st, is more favorable to the government than the one elected last October. Over the last four months, the PT has managed to expand its base in the Lower House, from 225 to around 260 deputies, by negotiating party-swapping among elected members, from opposing parties to those aligned with the new government.
If one considers that the PMDB will join the PT-led governing alliance, as could happen, then the new administration would have the backing of 330 of the 513 members. This is 22 more than the 308 votes needed to pass amendments to the Constitution, which is excellent only on paper: one can only imagine such a disparate band of interests acting in unison on extremely rare occasions.
What we are now starting to see in Brazil is not just a strange combination of forces in power, but also the lack of an official opposition. For democracy to succeed the government needs a proper opposition, with an alternative program. Governing alliances should also have something in common. We have commented before on the way in which the PMDB and PFL, in particular, have twisted and turned to suit themselves. During Fernando Henrique Cardoso's two mandates, both parties blew hot and cold from time to time when it suited them, resulting in phoney crises and high profile resignations or sackings of ministers.
The PFL's Antonio Carlos Magalhães, in particular, treated Congress with utter contempt by breaking the Senate rules he had been appointed to enforce. Although he eventually lost that battle and was forced to resign in 2001, he certainly did not lose the war. Like Sarney, he publicly backed Lula during the campaign, and is himself now back, re-elected Senator for Bahia, as a prominent leader and behind-the-scenes king maker. Despite breaking all the rules, he is likely to be elected chairman of the Constitution and Justice Committee, the most powerful of all Senate committees. Such is ACM's supreme self-confidence that he even claimed this week that he had been the ”driving force” behind Lula’s campaign to end hunger in Brazil, called “Fome Zero”, or Zero Hunger. According to Magalhães, the original idea was his, and indeed there is a government anti-poverty fund in place that he pushed through two years ago.
Since it is difficult to know exactly what the PMDB or PFL really stand for, perhaps it is a bit naive to criticise them for doing whatever they can to gain power. One wonders, however, what makes a person actually dedicate his or her vote to such groupings – a term used deliberately because it is difficult to see them as political parties. Maybe voters actually deserve what they get.
As if this were not enough, we are now seeing former President Cardoso's own PSDB, and its unsuccessful candidate, the luckless former Senator and Health Minister Jose Serra, greasing up to the Lula government. Recently, PSDB President Jose Anibal, and PFL President Jorge Bornhausen, held separate meetings with the PT President, former Congressman Jose Genoino, to discuss getting reforms to the scandalous pension system pushed through Congress. After the meeting, Anibal, who has a reputation as the PSDB's rottweiler, seemed full of bonhomie and promised Lula's government collaboration and a positive approach to the reforms.
Meanwhile, Bornhausen and Genoino were photographed hugging each other while the PT leader pledged that the government would hold a dialogue with the opposition parties on the Congressional agenda. All three men were, of course, playing to the gallery and a high price will be paid before any major reforms – such as on the pension, tax or the electoral system itself – are made. But it is a bit alarming at this early stage to see the “opposition” behaving so feebly.
Let us hope this grasp for power at any cost ends soon and that the PSDB, of all parties, sticks to its principles. Without harming Brazil's interests, let us see it make life for Lula as difficult as the PT did for Cardoso during his two terms, when the PT opposed virtually all proposed reforms. This is important not only for the sake of democratic government, but also for the PSDB itself. It should be recalled that the governors of two of Brazil's richest and most politically influential states – Geraldo Alckmin of São Paulo and Aécio Neves of Minas Gerais – are from the PSDB. Both are obvious potential future presidential candidates.
Related sites: (all political party sites available in Portuguese only) PT – Worker's Party www.pt.org.br
PSDB – Brazilian Social-Democratic Party www.psdb.org.br
PL – Liberal Party www.pl.org.br
PPS – Popular Socialist Party www.pps.org.br
PC do B – Communist Party of Brazil www.pcdob.org.br
PFL – Party of the Liberal Front www.pfl.org.br
PMDB – Party of the Brazilian Democratic Movement www.pmdb.org.br
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