The evil that goes around comes around

www.abs-cbnnews.com Newsday By JAMES P. PINKERTON a Newsday columnist.

George W. Bush may well choose to repeat the phrase “axis of evil” in his State of the Union address Tuesday. He’s a proud man, after all, who hates to admit a mistake.

But the policy that grew out of those ringing words has already been negated. Unfortunately, the backlash from that phrase can’t be negated so readily.

In creating that memorable sound bite, Bush was mostly wrapping rhetoric around a policy that key advisers had long supported -- ”regime change” in Iraq.

On January 26, 1998, a core cadre of 18 neoconservative policy thinkers signed an open letter to President Bill Clinton, arguing for “the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime from power.” No fewer than nine of those signatories --including Donald Rumsfeld, now secretary of Defense -- currently hold top national-security posts in the government.

Yet for all their enthusiasm, these war hawks lacked a “smoking gun.” That smokelessness changed, at least in their eyes, after 9/11. In the months that followed, after the Afghanistan mission, the administration lost interest in al-Qaeda, shifting instead to a war on Iraq.

Indeed, some in the administration wanted to target even more enemies. For that story, we can turn to a new memoir by ex-Bush speechwriter David Frum, The Right Man: The Surprise Presidency of George W. Bush. As Frum records, his then-boss, chief speechwriter Mike Gerson, came to him in December 2001 and asked, “Can you sum up in a sentence or two our best case for going after Iraq?” Frum went to work, but National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice “wanted to take on Iran as well.” And at the last minute, North Korea was added. Bush gave the “axis of evil” address on January 29, 2002.

Today, Frum’s place in history -- and in bookstores -- is secure, but the country must live with the consequences of “axis of evil.”

The first consequence is that the United States looks guilty of inconsistency, if not hypocrisy. By lumping those three countries together so tightly, Bush gave the world no reason to think any of them would be treated differently. Yet the differentiation in treatment became glaring in October, when the North Koreans admitted -- ”bragged” might be a better word -- that they had nuclear weapons. In other words, North Korea is today what Iraq might be tomorrow. But our priorities are backward. As we pile up forces to remove Saddam, we pile up promises to Kim Jong Il -- resumption of talks, food aid, other kinds of aid -- if only he’ll be nice.

As for Iran, it’s still regarded by the United States as a sponsor of terrorism, but it’s mostly ignored by the administration.

Which is to say, after all the speechifying has fallen silent, US policy today looks a lot like what Rumsfeld & Co. had in mind five years ago: the removal of Saddam.

A second consequence of white-hat-vs.-black-hat thinking is that the rhetoric has spread -- to other Americans, to the world. In May, Undersecretary of State John Bolton delivered a speech, “Beyond the Axis of Evil,” in which he listed three more countries -- Cuba, Libya and Syria -- as serious threats to America. And in October, Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Illinois, chairman of the House International Relations Committee, declared that Cuba, Venezuela and Brazil were emerging as yet another “axis of evil.”

How does such tough talk affect the countries in question? Are other nations fearful they might be labeled next? And what about yet other nations -- such as France, now threatening to veto US war plans in the UN Security Council -- that bridle at American “arrogance”? To answer such questions, one must ask: Does human nature matter? If the answer is yes, then other countries, and their leaders, also have interests, emotions, pride. Maybe that’s one reason the Brazilian government is making noises about developing its own nuclear weapons. After all, as the North Koreans have demonstrated, possessing an atomic arsenal is a sure-fire way to avoid being fired upon.

So Bush’s words to the world, and his policy toward Iraq, are boomeranging, provoking other countries to think about developing their own weapons of mass destruction for self-respect, for self-defense. But don’t expect Bush to get into that Tuesday. He’ll say whatever he wishes, confident that most Americans will cheer.

Please send your comments or feedback to newsfeedback@abs-cbn.com JAMES P. PINKERTON / TODAY