“Exit plan” provokes national debate

www.africaonline.co.zw Innocent Chofamba-Sithole

LAST week’s lead story in The Sunday Mirror on an alleged transition plan that would see President Robert Mugabe handing over power to a chosen successor before the end of his current term, has sparked off a very interesting and healthy debate, analysts say.

Despite the avalanche of speculative reports that found their way into the newsrooms of the international media and served to obfuscate the real import of the plan, analysts who spoke to The Sunday Mirror concurred that it is inevitable that a national debate on the succession issue should be put on the agenda. “In a healthy society, yes, it should be discussed. But from my perspective, the initiative should come from government, and not from outsiders, as reports in the international media seemed to portray it,” said Amy Tsanga, a lecturer in the University of Zimbabwe’s (UZ) Law School.

Institute of Development Studies (IDS) professor, Brian Raftopoulos also welcomed the debate, saying it echoes the opinion of some in the ruling Zanu PF who believe that “this project cannot continue in its present form.” Feeding off The Sunday Mirror story, the international media created their own speculative versions, in which President Mugabe would be forced to go into exile as part of the exit plan.

She said the international media’s drive to create a crisis situation out of the exit plan could be inspired by their motive to try and influence the course of events in the country. “Drawing parallels with the chaotic situation in Venezuela, where demonstrations have raged on for over a month now, may be in itself a way by the international media of instigating action from the masses here,” Tsanga observed. She also dismissed the idea of an externally-brokered transition plan, saying that serious talk about succession will come from Zanu PF itself.

Speaker of Parliament and ruling party secretary for administration, Emmerson Mnangagwa, who is also widely believed to be Mugabe’s eventual successor, said the international media reports were meant to divide his party. He was responding to questions posed to him by the Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation (ZBC) after the media reports had alleged that he was the man behind the exit plan. Adding his voice in response to the reports, information and publicity minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo wrote in The Herald of January 15th that: “Of course, there is nothing wrong with debating succession but there is everything wrong with debating it outside the constitutional and democratic processes. Any succession that takes place outside these processes is tantamount to a coup and therefore unacceptable for that very reason”.

In December last year, Movement for Democratic Change president, Morgan Tsvangirai said in an address to party parliamentarians that there was an “unholy tripartite” plot by the British, South Africans, and Zimbabwean government officials to get him to agree to a round table meeting with President Mugabe, where an alleged transition plan would be discussed, and in which he would emerge as less than president.

But later, Tsvangirai said former army colonel, Lionel Dyck was sent to him as an emissary of Mnangagwa and defence chief, Vitalis Zvinavashe,to discuss the plan.

In the ensuing media reports on the issue, Dyck also initially acknowledged to a local daily that he had been sent by the two gentlemen. But as the issue fast gained global media attention, Dyck has denied any association with Mnangagwa and Zvinavashe, claiming instead that he was acting on his own behalf.

Sources available to The Sunday Mirror last week revealed that the latest succession plan was a resumption of the stalled transitional process that had begun with the draft constitution of February 2000. But with the gradual disappearance of the circumstances that had led to its suspension, the sources said, the plan was coming back into focus, and would involve a peaceful transition in which contenders could openly vie for the top post.

But in the same Herald article, Moyo suggests that there was a British-co-ordinated attempt to use the draft constitution to oust President Mugabe from power. “Put simply, there was a $64 million effort to use the draft constitution as a succession tool…” Tsanga noted that President Mugabe had made reference to his retirement in the past, but was skeptical of the possibility of his stepping down now, in the “midst of untidy ends in the land reform programme”. “That would be widely perceived as an admission of failure, and I’m not sure whether that would augur well with the kind of legacy the president would want to leave behind,” she said.

Responding to media reports about the alleged exit plan in Zambia last week, President Mugabe said he would retire only “when business was done”.

As part of the transition plan, the British government is understood to have pledged over half a billion pounds to jump-start the economy.

UZ political commentator and mathematics professor, Heneri Dzinotyiwei said although he felt there was an element of truth in the argument that a change of leadership would ease relations with the international community and attract external support, the real debate should focus on how to come up with solutions to the economic problems besetting the nation.

“If we do that, it gives us a format of following events, and we can get to a position where we can say either government has failed, or that they should adopt certain policies,” he said.

Tsanga observed that among the most vocal in the Mugabe-must-go lobby are people who seriously believe that the land reform programme can be reversed and that, with Mugabe’s removal from power, there is chance for them to get their farms back.

As the media glare on the succession issue enters its second week, General Zvinavashe has denied having given an interview to The Star of South Africa, which ran a story on January 17th, alleging that Zvinavashe had admitted that there was a crisis in Zimbabwe and had suggested the setting up of a national taskforce.

Speaking on ZBC’s Newshour on Friday, Zvinavashe flatly denied ever giving The Star’s reporter, Basildon Peta an interview.The defence chief, who rarely gives interviews to the media, had apparently given an exclusive interview to the Business Tribune, which was published on Thursday last week. In that interview, Zvinavashe had said: “First we must admit that there is a crisis. Everyone can see that…so we must do something about it. In my view, it is not right to keep quiet and let nature take its course.”