Saving Venezuela - Friends and neighbours step in gingerly

www.guardian.co.uk Leader Monday January 20, 2003 The Guardian

As the long-running political crisis in Venezuela begins to have an ever-greater international impact, efforts to end a divisive general strike and get the country back to work continue to founder. Until this week, outside mediation intended to defuse the confrontation between President Hugo Chavez and his vociferous opponents has been led by Cesar Gaviria, secretary-general of the Organisation of American States. But Mr Gaviria has made no headway and has now been reinforced by a new group, to be known as the Friends of Venezuela, initiated by the new Brazilian president, Luiz Inacio "Lula" da Silva, and including Mexico, Chile, Spain, Portugal and the US. It is not yet clear what the "friends" may propose - but the problem is plain enough. Venezuela, losing $50m a day and moving ever closer to bankruptcy, escalating violence and possible civil war, cannot afford to allow the present situation to continue unresolved. The neighbours, and in particular the US, think so too.

Washington, unsurprisingly given its disproportionate wealth and power, has more to lose than most. Venezuela supplies about one-sixth of US oil imports or did so, at least, until managers at the state oil company joined the anti-Chavez rebellion at a cost to their country so far of $4bn. Non-emergency US crude stocks are now touching a 27-year low and pump prices are rising, just as its designs on Iraq threaten to disrupt Middle Eastern supply. For the US, the problem is increasingly strategic, not local.

Despite this growing sense of urgency and a clear US temptation to try to take charge, the damage caused by Washington's perceived backing for last year's abortive coup against Mr Chavez has taught it to tread warily. Last week, controversial Latin American policy chief Otto Reich was moved to a lesser position. The state department has meanwhile taken to emphasising the need for a "peaceful, constitutional, democratic and electoral" solution. Regional leader Brazil would in any case be likely to oppose any US attempt to force the pace and warns that "aiming for magic solutions could lead to more violent conflicts". Indeed, Mr da Silva is far from unsympathetic to Mr Chavez, and rightly so. While both have their flaws, both are elected presidents attempting to reform badly run countries, raise the poor and reverse decades of entrenched injustice. Pressure from special interests, from whatever quarter, should be resisted.