Overnight Market Commentary
sg.biz.yahoo.com Thursday January 16, 5:20 AM GLOBAL STOCK INDEXES at 15:15 EST/2015 GMT
Latest Change %Change %12/31
New York DJ Indus 8748.34 -94.28 -1.07 +4.88 Intraday Nasdaq 1444.72 -16.27 -1.11 +8.18 Intraday NYSE Comp 5185.76 -47.90 -0.92 +3.72 Intraday S&P 500 921.28 -10.38 -1.11 +4.71 Intraday Russell 2000 396.42 -2.03 -0.51 +3.48 Intraday Wilshire 5000 8706.40 -86.77 -0.99 +4.35 Intraday Toronto TSE 300 6803.44 -7.54 -0.11 +2.86 Intraday London FTSE 100 3887.80 -57.80 -1.46 -1.33 Close FTSE 250 4339.90 -36.50 -0.83 +0.48 Close Frankfurt Xetra DAX 3049.40 -49.32 -1.59 +5.42 Close Paris CAC40 3134.66 -39.37 -1.24 +2.31 Close Tokyo Nikkei 225 8611.75 +58.69 +0.69 +0.38 Close Nikkei 300 167.63 +2.12 +1.28 +1.32 Close Hong Kong Hang Seng 9873.49 +77.18 +0.79 +5.92 Close NEW YORK STOCKS:
U.S. stocks are down Wednesday after Intel sparked concern about the semiconductor industry, a favorite sector among traders, despite itself reporting promising quarterly results.
Intel said it will curtail spending on production equipment, delivering a blow to builders of chip manufacturing equipment, which now can't plan on as much business from the No. 1 semiconductor maker. Intel will spend between US$3.5 billion to US$3.9 billion on such equipment, less than the US$4.7 billion spent last year.
Intel's announcement comes as analysts have cut their forecasts for the fourth quarter, which companies are about to report. They expect fourth-quarter earnings to rise 10.9% versus the prior year, according to Thomson First Call, but their growth forecast was 12.9% just two weeks ago.
Automatic Data Processing, a payroll-processing firm, hasn't helped sentiment by cutting its earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending June 30, saying profit should grow by a low-single-digit rate, not the mid-single-digit pace previously expected. The stock is down 3.20, or 8.1%, to 36.28.
A surge in the price of oil is also hurting equities. A U.S. government report showed a surprisingly steep decline in crude oil inventories in the week ended Jan. 10, which has sent prices up 83 cents, or 2.6%, to US$33.20 a barrel Wednesday.
While Intel played down the significance of its spending plans - saying it needs to buy less equipment because the machines it has are more efficient - some on Wall Street are concerned the company is playing coy, not revealing that the cutback is due to its belief that demand will be tepid this year.
As for Intel's good news, it earned 16 cents a share during the fourth quarter, better than the 14 cents a share anticipated by analysts, and revenue of US$7.16 billion also beat expectations slightly.
Nonetheless, reflecting the general worry over the chip business - despite Intel's relative strength - the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index is down 11.49, or 3.4%, to 325.24. Applied Materials, a big chip equipment maker, is down 85 cents, or 5.5%, to 14.51, while Advanced Micro Devices, another chip maker, has lost 9 cents, or 1.2%, to 7.34.
Even Linear Technologies, a chip maker that projected third-quarter earnings above the analyst estimate, is down, falling 1.39, or 4.5%, to 29.43.
Intel is down 22 cents, or 1.2%, to 17.57, which puts it in the middle of the pack on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is off 112.38, or 1.3%, to 8730.24.
The Nasdaq Composite Index is down 19.70, or 1.4%, to 1441.29 while the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has lost 12.38, or 1.3%, to 919.28.
Among small-cap stocks, the Russell 2000 Index is down 2.70, or 0.7%, to 395.75 and the Standard & Poor's SmallCap 600 Index has dropped 1.30, or 0.7%, to 199.92.
Transkaryotic Therapies is sinking 2.21, or 25%, to 6.52 after it didn't convince a panel of Food and Drug Administration advisers that its experimental treatment Replagal should be approved for Fabry's disease, which affects about 5,000 people worldwide.
Footstar is surging 2.56, or 35%, to 9.95 after playing down the financial significance of bankrupt discount retailer Kmart Corp.'s planned closure of 326 stores, noting that those locations generated only about US$200 million, or 8.4%, of Footstar's total sales last year.
Scholastic is up 2.05, or 5.9%, to 36.58 after author J.K. Rowling turned in the manuscript for the delayed, fifth "Harry Potter" book, which Scholastic will publish. The delay had prompted Scholastic to cut its fiscal 2003 earnings forecast in December.
NEW YORK PRECIOUS METALS:
Comex Feb gold futures settled US$1.30 lower at US$351.10 per ounce Wednesday after a choppy session in which prices dipped to five-day lows early on fund selling before rebounding later in the session on renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar.
The barrage of early fund selling had taken many by surprise, sources said, and is thought to have been sparked by gold's lack of fresh upside impetus of late despite dollar and equity market wobbles and continued geopolitical concerns.
However, bargain hunting and good levels of bank buying remained evident as soon as Feb slipped below the US$350 level, particularly once the U.S. dollar swooned against the euro between 0930 (1430 GMT) and 1000 ET (1500 GMT).
Thereafter, the early fund selling pressure waned and the dealer buying managed to lever prices back above the US$350.50 level to a US$350-$351.50 range that prevailed through the later stages of the session.
Dealers agreed that the fund community had become a little overloaded with gold in recent weeks and that the market was in store for a slight pullback before renewed upside progress could be attempted.
They also said that the continued presence of bank buying on any weakness has reaffirmed many market observers' longer-term bullish expectations of the market.
"The fact that the funds sold off was not surprising given the levels of open interest we've got, but the fact that the banks still have a hearty appetite on any dips bodes well over the long term," said one dealer, referring to the 214,684 contracts or 2.14 million ounces of open interest in gold futures reported on Comex Wednesday.
"We could do with that open interest coming lower a little before we turn higher again," he added.
"But, as the dollar is not going to miraculously strengthen any time soon, or the situations with Iraq or North Korea suddenly get worked out without any shots fired, the reasons behind the funds buying gold in the first place have not gone away - so they'll not be doing a complete reversal on their holdings and start only selling gold," he said.
"They'll just probably let (gold) cool off for a while before buying any more," he added.
John Tyree, analyst at Rosenthal Collins Group, said that key support was flagged at US$348 initially and then around US$345, US$343 and US$340.
Resistance was seen at US$357.50 and US$360, he added.
Spot gold followed the same path as Comex futures, swinging lower early to around US$348.50 before leveling off around the US$350-$351 area as the session wore on.
With the potential for fund long liquidation also overhanging the spot market, support is touted at around US$348 initially and then at US$345, US$343 and $340.
Mar silver settled 1.5 cents higher at US$4.78 after having endured a similarly choppy session as seen in gold.
Dealers said silver will continue to look to gold to provide general direction, although good support is seen at US$4.72 and then at US$4.70. Resistance around US$4.95-$5.00 is deemed impenetrable over the short term - which may serve to limit overall movement.
Nymex Apr platinum settled US$2.60 lower at US$609.60 after light speculative selling amid the prevailing very thin conditions.
Apr is seen remained holed up in a US$600-$620 range over the short term. A relatively sound demand outlook is expected to steer prices higher over the longer run.
Mar palladium was bereft of much interest whatsoever and languished in a US$245-$248 range throughout.
A less bright demand forecast compared with platinum is seen pulling palladium back toward the US$225-$230 region over the coming weeks.
Settlements: London PM Gold Fix: US$351.00, Vs US$353.10 Tuesday PM Fix U.S. spot gold 1340 ET: US$350.85, down US$2.05; Range US$348.45-353.65 Feb gold (RGCG03) US$351.10, down US$1.30; Range: US$348.70-352.20 Mar silver (RSIH03) US$4.780, up US$0.015; Range: US$4.720-4.805 Apr platinum (RPLJ03) US$609.60, down US$2.60; Range: US$607.20-613.00 Mar palladium (RPAH03) US$245.40, down US$4.60; Range US$245.00-248.00
NYMEX:
Crude oil futures rose sharply Wednesday after data showed a larger-than-expected weekly decline in U.S. inventories.
Data released by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration earlier Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 6.4 million barrels to 272.3 million barrels as refiners unexpectedly stepped up production by 1.1% to 92.3% of operating capacity.
The decline came despite a slight increase in imports. The data showed that imports rose by 200,000 barrels a day to 8.489 million barrels a day. Despite last week's increase, however, imports are about 1 million barrels a day lower than a month ago, an analyst at the EIA said.
Separately, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude oil stocks fell by 3.264 million barrels to 272.236 million barrels last week, as imports tumbled by 676,000 barrels a day to 8.27 million barrels a day.
Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had projected a decline of 2 million barrels in crude oil stocks.
Despite the disparity in import figures, traders seized on the data as evidence that the seven-week strike in Venezuela continues to cut into U.S. oil inventories.
It was "the kind of report we thought it would take to keep prices on their upward path," IFR Pegasus energy analyst Tim Evans said of the EIA report.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, nearby February crude surged 84 cents to close at US$33.21 a barrel, just shy of a two-year high of US$33.65 a barrel hit last month.
Heating oil and gasoline futures rallied in tandem with crude despite bearish petroleum-product stock data.
February heating oil rose 1.70 cents to close at 90.86 cents a gallon, while February gasoline futures advanced 1.27 cents to close at 90.43 cents a gallon.
On London's International Petroleum Exchange, February Brent futures rose 61 cents to close at US$31.22 a barrel. February IPE gasoil futures inched up US$1.25 to close at US$261.75 a metric ton.
The rally in heating oil and gasoline futures was surprsing given that the data indicated that refiners continued to build up petroleum-product stocks.
The DOE report showed that gasoline stocks rose by 5.8 million barrels to 215.6 million barrels, while distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, grew by 2.6 million barrels to 132.3 million barrels.
The API report painted a somewhat mixed picture. It showed that while gasoline stocks swelled by 4.399 million barrels to 215.043 million barrels last week, distillate stocks posted a decline of 104,000 barrels to 134,277 million barrels.
Most analysts surveyed had forecast a moderate decline in both gasoline and distillate stocks.
"Even with the build of nearly six million barrels in gasoline, traders were a lot more interested in what was going on in the crude oil," said Peter Beutel, an analyst at Cameron Hanover in Connecticut. "The bottom line is that the major fundamental factors are still in effect, those being the strike in Venezuela and fear of a war with Iraq."
Beutel said that "the locals are going to smell heavy buy stops over US$33.65 a barrel. If they can somehow get some kind of fundamental justification, they'll work this market higher."
There was little indication Wednesday that either Iraq or Venezuela is going to go away as a bullish factor in the market.
The U.S. made a formal request Wednesday for limited help from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the event of a war with Iraq.
Prices for crude oil are in dollars a barrel and the change is in cents; prices for Nymex products are in cents per gallon and the changes are in points; prices for IPE gasoil are in dollars a ton and the change is in cents.
Nymex Prices:
Contract Settle Change Vs Low High Tuesday
Feb crude oil 33.21 +84 32.45 33.30 Mar crude oil 32.45 +67 31.85 32.50 Feb heating oil 90.86 +170 89.00 91.60 Mar heating oil 88.61 +145 87.00 89.00 Feb gasoline 90.43 +127 88.10 90.60 Mar gasoline 90.80 +141 88.60 90.90 NEW YORK LATE FOREIGN EXCHANGE INDICATIONS: Wednesday Tuesday Australia 0.5843-0.5848 0.5829-0.5834 Britain 1.6034-1.6040 1.6058-1.6064 Euro 1.0542-1.0547 1.0564-1.0569 Hong Kong 7.7990-7.7992 7.7988-7.7993 Japan 118.10-118.15 117.97-118.02 New Zealand 0.5384-0.5388 0.5385-0.5390 Singapore 1.7330-1.7340 1.7306-1.7316 LONDON METAL EXCHANGE: Copper at the London Metal Exchange
soared to a one-month high at US$1,690 a metric ton Wednesday on a heavy bout of fund and speculator buying prompted by Tuesday's strong close.
After easing lower during Asian hours, buying interest picked up pace during morning floor trade, with sentiment buoyed by the break of resistance at US$1,665/ton.
The second ring of morning trade saw the three-month contract charge up to the day's high before profit taking and light long liquidation emerged to dampen the upside momentum.
Weakness on the equity markets added to the metal's woes in the afternoon session, as did the fact technical indicators were beginning to look overbought, and the gains were pared back toward US$1,670/ton for the close.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was around 120 points lower by the LME close while the FTSE 100 ended nearly 60 points weaker.
Although the market has made impressive gains over the last few weeks, dealers were reticent to back the metal for further upside short term. They noted that a deeper retracement would be needed before the US$1,690/ton resistance level is broken.
This sentiment was strengthened by the failure to break resistance and the pullback in the afternoon session, but much will depend on the tone of key economic releases later in the week.
The U.S. industrial production figure for December will be released on Friday and players, especially funds, will be using this number to give direction to their trading strategy.
Although copper's fundamentals are becoming increasingly positive, a poor performance for the industrial sector could dampen the mood in the market and lead to a reversal of the recent gains.
Aluminum was also a star performer Wednesday, building on Tuesday's strong performance with funds again said to behind the move.
The rally has caught a lot of players off guard given that the metal's fundamental outlook remains gloomy but further gains have not been ruled out.
"It has mostly been a sympathy move with the rest of the complex but with the funds in charge there is no telling where we will go from here," said one dealer. "We could be looking at US$1,400/ton before the end of the week but longer term I think the funds will bail and well be back to US$1,340/ton.
The buoyant mood triggered renewed buying in the tin market which helped the three-month contract break resistance at US$4,500/ton to hit a six-month high at US$4,535/ton.
Lead also broke out of its lethargic mood and charged to a one-month high at US$451/ton while zinc briefly broke resistance at US$800/ton.
Nickel continued to consolidate either side of US$8,000/ton and could challenge resistance at US$8,200/ton if Friday's data shows a strong performance by the industrial sector, dealers said.
(Prices in dollars a metric ton)
Wednesday PM Kerb Change from
Bid Ask Tuesday PM kerb bid
Copper 1,678.00-1,678.50 up 11.00
Lead 449.00-450.00 up 5.50
Aluminum 1,378.50-1,379.00 up 9.50
Zinc 799.50-800.00 up 13.50
Nickel 8,015.00-8,020.00 up 95.00
Tin 4,505.00-4,510.00 up 45.00
Al alloy 1,360.00-1,365.00 up 30.00
Al alloy 1,420.00-1,422.00 up 15.00
(NASAAC)
EUROPEAN STOCKS:
European stocks were lower Wednesday as gloomy retail sector updates continued to fuel worries over consumer spending and Intel's fourth-quarter trading update provided little cheer for technology stocks.
At the close, London's FTSE-100 Share Index was down 1.5% at 3887.8, while Paris's CAC-40 Index fell 1.2% to 3134.66. Frankfurt's Xetra Dax Index closed down 1.6% at 3049.40.
Technology bellwether Intel easily beat analysts' earnings expectations when it presented its fourth-quarter trading update overnight in the U.S. However, the world's biggest chip maker indicated it would spend US$400 million to US$600 million less on capital expenditures this year than it did in 2002, throwing some cold water on hopes for a tech recovery to come sooner rather than later.
Among tech-sector decliners, Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker ASML fell 5.1% in Amsterdam to EUR8.4, and German chip maker Infineon skidded 2.6% to EUR8.3 in Frankfurt. STMicroelectronics Europe's biggest chipmaker fell 1.6% to EUR20.5.
U.K. high street stalwart Marks & Spencer also did little to whet investor's appetite's with its latest trading update. Shares fell 5.8% to 304 pence despite posting strong sales for its latest quarter. The company said clothing sales fell short of internal targets, and that it has had to reduce the price of more stock than expected in order to sell it, which will lead to higher-than-expected costs.
Analysts at CSFB advised investors to steer clear of some of the consumer related plays that once appeared to be a shelter in the storm. "While the case is still tentative it could be that 2003 will be the year when they too are finally sucked into the downturn," they said.
Investors remain confused as to whether the global economy is on the mend. In economic news, U.S. producer prices were unchanged in December, and core prices, excluding food and energy, declined 0.3% for a second consecutive month.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast an increase of 0.2% overall and of 0.1% in the core figure. The figures show that the country's slowing economic growth is making inflation an increasingly remote threat.
Economists at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein forecast continued sub-trend growth for the global economy during 2003 and remain skeptical that the U.S. can easily break out of its current economic soft spot. "In the Eurozone the speed at which growth picks this year will depend crucially on future policy settings in the interest rate, fiscal and exchange rate spheres," they said in a note published Wednesday.
Media stocks were also putting pressure on indexes across the region after Goldman Sachs downgraded the European media sector to cautious from neutral. The broker cited the weakening dollar, muted advertising prospects, geopolitical fears and high valuations as reasons for its bearish stance.
Continued uncertainty over the evolving situation in Iraq is also weighing on investor sentiment said traders.
Overnight Market Commentary -3-
Earnings are likely to continue dominating market direction as Apple Computer and Yahoo line up to post earnings after U.S. markets close Wednesday.
At 1646 GMT, the Dow Jones Stoxx Index of shares in European companies was trading down 1.4% at 196.98, while the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Index, which tracks companies in countries that joined the single currency, fell 1.1% at 192.97.
The Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index was down 1.2% at 2479.9 and the Dow Jones Stoxx 50 Index was down 1.5% at 2454.5.