No end in sight for Venezuela’s crisis after 6 weeks of strikes

www.dailytimes.com.pk By Paula Bustamante

CARACAS: Six weeks into a crippling strike aimed at forcing President Hugo Chavez from office, Venezuela appears no closer to solving the deep crisis that has rocked oil markets and stoked fears of further violence.

The embattled president is more determined than ever to break the back of the ruinous strike and has no intention of recognizing a referendum on his mandate his foes hope to hold on February 2. The opposition, for its part, is determined to pursue its protest until Chavez is on his way out.

As both sides fight it out, the economy is caught in the crossfire. The first 30 days of the strike, which has mainly targeted the vital oil sector, caused losses of more than four billion dollars, or 4.57 percent of gross domestic product, according to a congressional report.

The battle has accentuated the country’s deep polarization, leaving few people on the sidelines.

Among the few government supporters to enjoy a level of respect among the opposition is lawmaker Rafael Simon Jimenez, who warned that unless the sides reach a negotiated solution, Venezuela will be plunged into “generalized violence that will undoubtedly lead to a dictatorship.”

He insisted the strike was “totally absurd.” “It is not correct to play an ‘all or nothing’ game with no certainty of the outcome,” he told AFP.

Lacking strong individual leadership or a common ideology, the opposition, headed by the main business and labor federations as well as an alliance of political parties, “is based on an important common ideal: they all reject Chavez,” said political consultant Luis Vicente Leon, head of Datanalisis.

The opposition alliance leading the strike does recognize that Chavez received a legitimate mandate in 1998 and again in 2000. But it also believes he has since destabilized the country by violating the Constitution, accumulating powers and attacking key sectors of society, Leon said.

Rejection of the president is particularly strong among the middle-class and moneyed Venezuelans, who have participated massively in almost daily street protests and in some cases shut down shopping malls, cinemas and other businesses. Some of the demonstrations that ended in violent clashes with Chavez supporters left two dead and dozens wounded so far this year.

With the specter of further bloodshed jarring Venezuelans’ nerves, the potential role of the armed forces remained a crucial question.

“The most likely way to get rid of Chavez is violence, and faced with the possibility of riots, troops who now support him could be tempted to stage a coup against him,” said Leon.

The opposition is increasingly courting the military with television clips urging soldiers to side with the people, while Chavez raised the possibility of a further militarization of the economy, after soldiers already seized control of oil installations from the strikers. Worried about the situation in the South American country, the United States — Venezuelaa’s main oil client — is looking at new ways of solving the crisis.

Washington is considering the creation of a “Friends of Venezuela” group of interested countries to complement mediation by the Organization of American States. —AFP