Venezuela's Chavez Could Win This Round

www.tuscaloosanews.com By ALEXANDRA OLSON Associated Press Writer January 10, 2003

Six weeks into an opposition strike, Venezuela's economy is in shambles. Oil exports are down to a trickle. Gasoline lines are long. Venezuela is losing $70 million a day.

And Hugo Chavez is still president, confounding a coalition of labor and business leaders who declared a general strike Dec. 2 to demand a nonbinding referendum on his rule. Many believed economic and political pressure would force him to agree to a vote - or even resign - by Christmas.

But Chavez has the backing of Venezuela's military - armed forces purged of dissidents after a brief April coup. General after general has declared loyalty to the constitution and to a democratically elected government.

Chavez also is stubborn in a crisis where other leaders might feel threatened. After oil production was paralyzed, eliminating the source of half of government revenue and 80 percent of export earnings, he fired 1,000 people from the state-owned oil monopoly and vowed to tighten government control over the company.

The president's opponents are equally stubborn, staging dozens of street marches, calling for a tax boycott and staging a two-day bank strike this week. While thousands of businesses have opened, giant national and multinational firms are closed.

"Nobody, including me, thought this could last six weeks," said Luis Vicente Leon, director of Venezuela's most prestigious polling firm, Datanalisis. "Chavez can win. That is a possibility."

A growing civic movement demanding accountable democracy and an end to violence is part of what keeps the strike alive. The movement cites Article 350 of Venezuela's constitution, which permits citizens not to recognize a government that infringes on human and democratic rights. Ironically, analysts say Chavez included the article to justify his own 1992 coup attempt.

Holding on to power will cost Chavez. The government is considering cutting the 2003 budget by at least 10 percent. Unemployment is at 17 percent and inflation is at 30 percent.

"At this point, it's impossible to avoid an economic crisis of huge dimensions," Leon said. "Chavez has simply decided to deal with that crisis. He seems to be willing to see the economy collapse to stay in power."

Chavez won presidential elections in 1998 and was overwhelmingly re-elected to a six-year term in 2000 on an anti-poverty, anti-corruption platform.

Under Chavez, Venezuela's economy has plunged into deep recession. In the meantime, he has occasionally run roughshod over democratic institutions, including Congress and the Supreme Court.

On the streets, his so-called "Bolivarian circles" - neighborhood groups that are sometimes armed - protect the presidential palace and patrol oil fields abandoned by striking workers.

In November, organizers had to fight their way through circle members to deliver 2 million signatures demanding the referendum.

The National Elections Council agreed to hold the vote Feb. 2. Chavez says he'll ignore the results and that his opponents can wait for a possible recall referendum halfway into his term, or next August, as permitted by the constitution.

Opponents fear he'll figure out a way to postpone that vote.

Nowhere has the battle been fiercer than in the oil industry.

Many oil executives left their offices intact, thinking they'd be back in a week, maybe two. Chavez ordered troops to lock them out and says a long-term restructuring plan will restore full production.

Strike leaders insist the plan is farfetched. It's not easy to replace 30,000 trained personnel, they note.

"Who is going to assign budgets? Who is going to coordinate finances? Who is going to control foreign operations?" demanded Edgar Paredes, who was fired as president of the company's petrochemicals unit. "Without clear and precise answers to these and other relevant questions, the proposal is illusory and irresponsible."

Chavez is forging ahead with help from the military.

Troops are guarding oil installations and service stations. They seized striking oil tankers and commandeered gasoline trucks. Army Commander Gen. Julio Garcia Montoya delivered a blistering condemnation of the strike and professed his loyalty to the government.

A recent opposition march on military headquarters in Caracas ended in chaos after military police fired tear gas and rubber bullets at protesters who tried to break through security lines. Chavez supporters attacked the march with bottles, rocks and fireworks. Gunfire rang out, and two Chavez sympathizers died. Amid the commotion, opposition lawmaker Julio Borges pleaded with a soldier.

"The country can't go through this everyday. Think about it," Borges said, tapping his head with his finger.

The soldier grinned and replied, "Right, let's ban marches."