The Associated Press June 12, 2003 From left, OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva Calderon, president of the conference and the Minister of Energy and Industry from Qatar; Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah, Emir of Qatar; Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa Al-Thani; and Saif bin Ahmed Al-Ghafly, chairman of the OPEC Board of Governors, sit Wednesday at the opening ceremony of 125th Extraordinary Meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in Doha, capital of Qatar.Oil prices surged above $32 a barrel for the first time since mid-March on Wednesday, as traders fretted about scant supplies, the rising price of natural gas and a signal from OPEC that production cuts might be on the horizon. The weak dollar is also making it more expensive to buy oil, analysts said. Crude for July delivery finished up 63 cents to $32.36 on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. The last time Nymex oil futures closed higher than $32 a barrel was March 17, a few days before the start of the war in Iraq. Prices then fell sharply after U.S.-led forces quickly secured Iraq’s most abundant oil fields and analysts speculated that the country’s supply would make up for lost production elsewhere. As the military conflict wound down, crude futures dropped as low as $25.24 on April 29. But prices have risen steadily since then as it became clear that Iraq’s oil industry was in bad shape, and the country’s crude would not flood the global market anytime soon. “The market is starting to wake up to the fact that while Iraq is going to be a big deal down the road, near-term it isn’t going to be much” of a contributor to world supplies, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. Iraq, which pumped around 2.1 million barrels a day before the war, is now producing below 1 million barrels a day. On the domestic front, the Energy Department reported Wednesday that commercial inventories of crude fell last week by 4.6 million barrels to 284.4 million barrels, or 12 percent below year ago levels. Refiners are drawing down crude inventories in order to meet the nation’s gasoline needs at the start of the busy summer driving season. Supplies were already low because of a two-month strike that paralyzed oil production in Venezuela, the world’s fifth-largest petroleum exporter. Flynn also cited the rising price of natural gas, a problem that was highlighted before Congress on Tuesday by Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. Greenspan warned that high natural gas prices could be a drag on the economy, particularly in the manufacturing sector. With natural gas futures trading higher than $6 per 1,000 cubic feet, or roughly double what they were a year ago, manufacturers are choosing to run their plants on crude-derived fuels instead of natural gas and that, too, is driving the price of oil higher. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries offered little relief to the market on Wednesday, when ministers meeting in Doha, Qatar, decided to keep production levels steady through July. The oil cartel left open the possibility of a production cut at its next meeting July 31. Fahnestock & Co. oil analyst Fadel Gheit said that while OPEC ministers publicly expressed fears about the potential for an oil glut once Iraqi production reaches pre-war levels, privately they are “laughing all the way to the bank.” Still, he said speculation by U.S. traders is driving prices higher more than anything else. “It’s not because there is a physical shortage,” he said. “It’s all psychology.”

Dateline: undefined/Sun Jun 22 22:23:42 2003/undefined This Day Online, By Mike Oduniyi, with agency report

The Federal Government said yesterday it would relaunch negotiations with the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in a bid to get a higher oil production quota for Nigeria. But OPEC. at an extra-ordinary meeting held in Qatar yesterday, decided to maintain its current production ceiling of 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd). This leaves Nigeria's production quota at 2.094 million bpd compared to her capacity of 2.6 million bpd. The Director, Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR), Mr. Macaulay Ofurhie said in an address delivered at a seminar on offshore oil and gas technology in Lagos, that the need to renew the bid for a higher OPEC quota was based on {he challenges posed by successes Nigeria had recorded in deep offshore exploration. "As production commences from the deepwaters, Nigeria as a strong member of OPEC and the only one with large deepwater discoveries certainly will need to renegotiate her quota allocation level with OPEC," said Ofurhie, who was represented at the event by a-. Deputy Director in DPR, Mr. Kayode Oloketuyi. According to the DPR chief, the Federal Government needed to get an increased OPEC quota so as to continually convince the deepwater operators that "Nigeria is an investment friendly country and to guarantee sustainable development of the nation's deepwater assets." Ofurhie said that the discovery of giant oil and gas fields in the Nigerian deepwaters and the unfolding potentials in its offshore basins are indications that with right planning and sustained growth, Nigeria will emerge as the main center of deepwater activities in the Gulf of Guinea, as Brazil currently is for the Gulf of Mexico. Oil workers last weekend had expressed concern that oil companies under the present OPEC quota regime, will not be able to maximise output from these new fields, mostly located in the deep offshore, on which several billions of dollars have been invested. They also alerted the Government on the danger posed by the quota restriction to its revenue earning power. Oil fields soon to go into production include Shell's Forcados Yokri and Bonga fields. Total's Amenam/Kpono field and ExxonMobil's Erha field. Oloketuyi later told THISDAY on the sideline of the seminar that the Federal Government was approaching the demand for higher quota using political and technical means. "We have submitted the technical details of what we have been doing in the deep offshore where we are. The political approach, which include demonstrating our economic needs as well as the need to sustain our democracy will be handled by government," he said. The seminar was organised under framework of institutional co-operation programme between Nigerian government and its Norwegian counterpart. According to Charge d'Affaires of the Norwegian Embassy in Nigeria. Kristin Teigland. the seminar aimed at sharing experiences enhance transfer of technology, assist in capacity and competence building. Meanwhile, OPEC ministers ended a meeting in the Qatari capital of Doha yesterday, ieaving the group's production levels unchanged. OPEC President Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, said the 11-nation group would meet on July 31, this year to reassess the situation. Al-Attiyah said that the July meeting would look at the impact of Iraq's return to the oil market and that OPEC would consider all options to maintain its interests. Contrary to the widely held belief that the group would cut down on production to accommodate the entry of Iraqi oil into the market, OPEC's decision was said to be hinged on the fact that Iraq oil would not be reaching dhe market fast enough. Analysts said prices had not retreated because Iraq has been slow to revive production, and political unrest in Venezuela and communal crises in Nigeria, had suppressed in the two influential OPEC member-nations. Iraqi oil officials appointed by the US. occupation authority said on Monday that crude exports would not resume until month's end and that it would not reach pre-war levels until the middle of 2004. Crude oil prices were at between $27 and $29 a barrel yesterday.

<a href=www.menafn.com>Times of Oman - 12/06/2003

MUSCAT — The purchasing power of oil producers has been largely hit by the fall in the value of dollar. Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah, president of Opec and Qatar's minister of energy and industry, told the 125th extraordinary meeting of the orgainsation in Qatar that the falling value of the US dollar, especially against the euro was a matter of concern to the global economy. Attiyah said the fall in the value dollar has negatively affected the purchasing power of oil producers' revenues. Oil inventories in industrialised countries are relatively tight for this time of the year. This may serve to support oil prices in the coming months. The conference has reviewed the decision taken on April 24, 2003, to reduce Opec-10's actual production by two million barrels per day from the levels that prevailed during the events in Iraq, when oil producers increased output so as to assure consumers of steady supplies of crude during that period. Opec chief said the fact that the cuts came into force on June 1, just 10 days ago, means that they have had little time to work their way through the market's supply/demand balance, even though their influence on the psychology of the market was noticed much earlier. "We have seen this reflected in the oil price trends, which has strengthened over the past months and the market is settling down again. However, we are still faced with uncertainty in several key areas," Attiyah added. The pace and the extent of the return of Iraqi crude to the market remain unclear at the present time, as this country, with its proud Opec heritage, seeks to re-establish itself on the world energy scene. He welcomed observers from many leading non-Opec oil-exporting nations — Angola, Oman, Mexico, Russia and Syria — who have so often in the past been supportive to its efforts towards a stable and fair market. The presence of non-Opec countries emphasises once again the need for the co-operation of all parties in the petroleum industry - including consumers — if we are to achieve order and stability. Harmony and understanding should prevail at all times in the oil market, to help it meet the energy needs of all nations — in a world that is increasingly aware of the importance of stable and secure energy supplies to the process of sustainable development, Attiyah said. Though there was no decision on any future output cut, non-Opec producers believe that Opec would not allow the 1999 level of $10-a-barrel to repeat and its target of $25 a barrel for a basket of seven crude prices is reasonable. Over the last six months, Opec member countries increased production significantly to accommodate supply disruptions in Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq. The Vienna meet in April had reviewed estimated supply/demand levels for the second quarter of 2003 and decided to reduce actual production by 2mbpd (million barrels per day) to 25.4mbpd, effective from June 1. The aggregate production levels for Opec-10 (Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela) has changed even more than one occasion. Having reviewed the current oil market situation, as well as supply/demand prospects for the second half of the year, yesterday's conference noted that stability had been maintained in the market following the decision taken by the conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 mbpd with prices remaining within agreed levels. Nevertheless, the conference also noted that despite the fact that the market remains well-supplied, prices displayed an upward trend, recently, due to the slower-than-anticipated recovery in Iraqi production, coupled with unusually low stock levels. However, with low stock levels anticipated to be replenished during the third quarter, the Conference decided to maintain currently agreed production levels, with strict compliance, and emphasised that continued vigilance in monitoring market developments is imperative over the coming period.

Estimado Sr. Robert,

Soy una expetrolera. Tuve el honor de conocerlo en su charla en la plaza la meritocracia y desde entonces recibo sus escritos.  No siempre alcanzo a leerlos todos pero este sobre “Coramina” lo leí y me hizo llorar  y sentir muy mal...

Por favor, no me quite la esperanza.

Así como cada persona tiene que aprender por sí misma, cada pueblo debe luchar y tratar de salvarse a sí mismo.

No sé si nos pasará lo mismo que a su querida Cuba pero hoy como venezolana, yo y los millones de venezolanos debemos mantenernos haciendo nuestro mejor esfuerzo por desterrar este régimen... Tal vez el último trimestre del año sea nuestra última oportunidad. ¿Pero no cree que es lo único que podemos hacer?

Un abrazo respetuoso,

Carolina M.

Mi amiga Carolina,

Mis mensajes son GRITOS DESESPERADOS para que no decaiga la lucha.  Trato de convertirme en un espejo que refleje lo que NOS PUEDE PASAR...o ¿debo decir, LO QUE ME PUEDE VOLVER A PASAR? 

No es con "coramina" como debemos enfrentar esta lucha.  No es con ilusiones utópicas, sino con EL MÁXIMO ESFUERZO.  Llegó un momento en que los cubanos nos entregamos al destino, aunque muchos siguieron sacrificándose, dando la vida y la libertad por recuperar la patria perdida.  Sin embargo, colectivamente nos venció la desesperanza contra la cual hoy intentamos luchar, ya, al final del camino… cuando Cuba ha quedado totalmente divida y absolutamente destruida, más de cuatro terribles décadas después.

Hay que darlo todo hasta lo último, como pueblo... como nación.  No encuentro la manera de promover "LA GUARIMBA" como un plan de acción que a mi juicio pudiera ser la solución inmediata a nuestro problema mayor, hoy, en Venezuela.  Pero debemos poner los pies sobre la tierra y darnos cuenta que con triunfalismos o esperanzas efímeras (como el revocatorio o agarrar un revólver para caerles a tiros a las tanquetas artilladas) no vamos a ninguna parte.  También debemos olvidarnos de los factores externos, como los huracanes, las vírgenes, la tan "esperanzadora"  "Comunidad Internacional".  La clave y la solución -- de haberla -- está aquí en la tierra, en este país de un verdor impresionante y ahora, entre nosotros mismos… y como usted muy bien dice: ¡unidos!

Lamento mucho, Carolina, que tenga que acudir a manipulaciones literarias como "¡Ahora sí!" para estremecer los huesos de mis lectores.  Espero que comprenda mis gritos.

Un abrazo,

Caracas 20 de junio de 2003

ROBERT ALONSO

Envíen sus comentarios – UNICAMENTE – a robertalonso2003@cantv.net pues los otros buzones colapsan con la cantidad de correo que reciben.  --

PORTAFOLIO VIRTUAL DE ARTÍCULOS Y ENSAYOS DEL MISMO AUTOR

<a href=www.washingtonpost.com>The Washington Post Thursday, June 12, 2003; Page A38

VENEZUELAN PRESIDENT Hugo Chavez and his opposition finally have agreed, in principle, on an electoral means to end the political turmoil that has all but wrecked one of Latin America's most stable and prosperous democracies. But it's fair to ask whether either side is sincere. The opposition coalition agreed to the deal, brokered by Cesar Gaviria, secretary general of the Organization of American States, only after a two-month strike intended to force Mr. Chavez from office proved a disastrous failure. Mr. Chavez, in turn, continues to behave as if he has no intention of giving up his attempt to push through a quasi-totalitarian, quasi-socialist "revolution," regardless of what his people may want. While it's possible that this increasingly polarized country could vote its way out of its crisis, it's not likely to happen without sustained pressure from outside.

In essence, the agreement brokered by Mr. Gaviria commits Mr. Chavez to respect his own constitution, which allows for a recall referendum after the midpoint of his current term this August. The terms favor the president: The opposition is first required to collect the signatures of 20 percent of the electorate, or more than 2.5 million voters, and if a recall vote is held opponents must win not only a majority but more total votes than Mr. Chavez obtained when he was last elected. Nevertheless, polls show that Mr. Chavez is at risk. In one recent survey, 85 percent of voters said they would participate and nearly two-thirds said they would support the president's ouster. Not surprisingly, Mr. Chavez is throwing up obstacles. He recently suggested that referendums on a number of mayors and provincial governors would have to be held first, and he has refused to agree on the composition of an electoral commission that must supervise the referendum.

More seriously, Mr. Chavez has pressed on with his attempt to centralize political and economic power in his hands. Last week his supporters in the National Assembly held a bizarre outdoor session -- to avoid the opposition -- in which they adopted new parliamentary procedures that would facilitate the approval of several far-reaching new laws. One would tightly constrict press freedom; another would add new judges to the supreme court. When a first attempt to implement the new procedures this week failed, the president's supporters vowed to try again. Mr. Chavez already has placed a stranglehold on Venezuela's supply of foreign currency, which he is using to choke off imports by the private sector. Gunmen opened fire on a recent opposition rally.

Venezuela's neighbors, including the United States, have watched the crisis in Caracas with growing alarm but have shrunk from taking significant action. A support group of countries created last year to support Mr. Gaviria's mediation, including the United States, Mexico and Brazil, has failed to play a significant role. Now they have another opportunity. Venezuela's president needs to hear from the region's leaders that his persecution of opponents and attempts to dodge a fair referendum are unacceptable. There should be no more putting off Venezuela's crisis: The chance for a democratic solution may soon be lost.