<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Thursday, June 12, 2003 By: Elio Cequea

Date: Wed, 11 Jun 2003 19:17:28 -0500 From: Elio Cequea Feico57@aol.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Ex President Rafael Caldera - Revolutions and History

Dear Editor: Ex President Rafael Caldera talks about The Revolutions and History. But, among other things, he forgot to mention WHY a revolution occurs.

That IS what is important when talking about revolutions. As he indicated, most of the changes caused by them are temporal and things sometimes even return to the way they were before the revolution.

Rafael Caldera's attempt to underestimate some of the changes he mentioned in his writing is nothing but an unsuccessful shot at the significance of what is going on in Venezuela.

All revolutions are attached to a particular historical precedent and to a particular historical moment ... they're not attached to the changes that come after. Those changes are unpredictable. That is why they are called revolutions, and ours is no different.

When implicitly comparing the 1998 Venezuelan Revolution to the French and Russian Revolutions, Caldera failed to mention important similarities. All of these three revolutions were promoted and carried out by the lower social classes. All three of them were the consequence of great social-economic deterioration. The upper classes had more and more and the lower classes less and less. Things were that way until they reach the boiling point: Revolution!

Doctor Caldera did not mention any relevant differences either. Contrary to the medieval France, nobody in Venezuela from the upper classes lost his/her head in the guillotine. And, contrary to the Russia of the Czars, royal families were not massacred. All of these thanks to democracy!

We had the first Non-Violent Democratic Revolution in history!

The Venezuelan Revolution had its reasons, as well as its historical moment, similar to other revolutions. Its consequences and changes are still developing. The revolution itself is over. Thanks God it did not happened like in France or in Russia. Most of us for sure could have lost one or two family members.

Contrary to Rafael Caldera's opinion, people do change as well as history ... many things in our country will go back to the way they were before 1998. However, the same way France and Russia NEVER went back to be a monarchy, Venezuela will NEVER AGAIN go back to the political monarchy he (Caldera) helped to create.

Elio Cequea Feico57@aol.com

By Aaron L. Task Senior Writer 06/12/2003 07:19 AM EDT

Skeptics seemingly are worried about just about everything these days, be it a falling dollar, overly accommodative monetary policy, equity valuations, deficits, deflation and/or bubbles in housing and Treasuries.

Almost invariably, however, it's the things people don't worry about that gets them, which brings us to crude prices.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan highlighted the risks of higher natural gas prices. Conversely, scant few seem terribly concerned about oil prices, Greenspan included. But those believing robust economic growth is imminent, and thus higher stock prices are justified, have reason to be at least a little concerned.

Crude futures did retreat from their prewar highs near $40 per barrel, but have risen steadily since late April and are up 13% in the past month. On Wednesday, crude futures rose another 2% to $32.36 per barrel, the highest close since March 17, after OPEC decided to leave production quotas unchanged at its meeting in Doha, Qatar.

Anticipation of OPEC keeping the status quo was but one factor pushing up oil prices recently, according to Mark Baxter, director of Southern Methodist University's Cox Maguire Energy Institute. Others include struggles getting Iraqi production back on line, concerns about possible conflict with Iran, supply glitches from Venezuela and Nigeria, and concerns about terror attacks on oil facilities.

"All that is keeping people nervous and is going to keep us around the $28-to-$35 [per barrel] range for the next six months," Baxter said.

Oil at those levels is not factored into the bullish forecast of equity strategists. "We still anticipate upside surprises because of a weaker dollar, lower energy prices and fiscal stimulus," Thomas McManus, equity portfolio strategist at Banc of America Securities, wrote on May 19 when he implored clients to "buy the dips." On Wednesday, McManus conceded crude has "moved up so much it's not as much of a positive," and that natural gas prices are "potentially a fly in the ointment."

Monday 23.06.2003, CET 04:46 <a href=www.swissinfo.org>swissinfo   December 9, 2002 7:04 PM   A new intergovernmental agency is born (swissinfo) A Swiss initiative to help poorer countries defend their interests during world trade negotiations has proved so successful that the project and its budget are being expanded.   On Monday, the agency, which has been sponsored by the Swiss government for the past four years, was transformed into an intergovernmental organisation.

"On certain issues, the smaller countries could push their interests."

Seven donor countries including Switzerland have pledged funding of SFr18 million over the next five years to support the Geneva-based agency for international trade information and cooperation (Aitic).

“The Swiss government [saw] that something was needed in that field and they had the discipline and the determination to make it work,” Aitic’s director, Esperanza Durán, told swissinfo.   Having a voice   Aitic was set up in 1998 to help less-advantaged countries make themselves heard at the World Trade Organisation. The Swiss state secretariat for economic affairs funded its annual budget of SFr1.5 million.

“This was an initiative of the Swiss government to assist the countries that have not actively participated in international trade to have a louder voice and to defend their interests in the negotiations that take place under the aegis of the WTO,” said Durán.

Less advantaged nations include the 49 least developed countries as defined by the United Nations as well as smaller developing countries (such as Venezuela) and countries in transition such as the formerly communist central Asian nations.

Aitic is particularly valuable for “non-resident” WTO member states which can’t afford to have a permanent trade mission in Geneva.

Of the 144 WTO member states, 34 have non-resident status. They are mostly poorer nations in Africa, Central Asia or Latin America, which deal with the WTO from embassies in Brussels, London or Paris or further afield.   Defining priorities   Aitic has a reference library, meeting and reading rooms and on-line stations but the main attraction is the personalised assistance the agency’s expert staff provides on request.

Representatives from developing countries can seek the help of Aitic to clarify an issue or obtain data to underpin an intervention they will be making.

“We can help if a delegate is attending a meeting and wants to know the implications of certain provisions, which are being negotiated,” said Durán.

“Also how best to make use of a country’s resources to put its point forward.

“We also help them to define priorities. A very small country will not have to follow all the subjects in the WTO.

“There may be two or three important subjects which touch on their basic interests – negotiations on basic telecommunications or market access in agriculture or the liberalisation of textiles.”

Summarising complex documents is another key aspect of the organisation’s work.

Aitic’s five permanent staff and five support staff also answer requests that arrive by e-mail or fax.

All of the assistance is free of charge.   Translating documents   Although the WTO has three official languages – English, French and Spanish – Aitic staff often have to translate documents because of a shortage of interpreters.

“Sixty per cent of the least developed countries have French as their first or second language,” said Durán.

“So they are at a disadvantage when very complex and technically difficult subjects are discussed particularly from the start if they do not have these documents translated.”

Duran told swissinfo she was convinced the growth in international trade offers more opportunities to less advantaged countries provided they know how to negotiate. “If a small country knows what its interests are and knows what is being discussed, it can play a role as well,” she said.

“We have seen the weight of small and vulnerable countries in the negotiations when there is an issue that is particularly important for them.”   Advantages   Durán said recruitment of staff would probably now be easier because Aitic was competing on an equal footing with other intergovernmental organisations.

She said the new status would also make it easier to operate in the international arena.

“We were trying to assist the representatives of government and it was not commensurate with our status as a private organisation.”

Monday’s signing ceremony was co-chaired by David Syz, Swiss secretary of state for economic affairs and Rénald Clérismé, ambassador and permanent representative of Haiti to the WTO, and co-chair of the task force on AITIC’s development.

Denmark, Finland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom are the other donor countries. swissinfo, Vincent Landon

Experts stress OPEC's decision to roll over production ceiling shows its commitment to stabilise market.

<a href=www.middle-east-online.com>Middle East OnlineBy Amelie Herenstein - DOHA

OPEC's decision not to lower its oil production ceiling before Iraq resumes its exports demonstrates commitment to stabilise the market, experts said Thursday.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries "probably didn't have a choice, this is probably the wisest decision in the short term," said Barbara Shook from the New-York based Energy Intelligence Group (EIG).

The cartel decided at an extraordinary meeting here Wednesday to roll over the ceiling of 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) at least until July 31, when it will meet again in Vienna.

The meeting will assess the market situation in view of the likely resumption of Iraq's oil exports which stopped in March, prompting the ten other members - Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, UAE, Nigeria, Kuwait, Libya, Indonesia, Algeria and Qatar - to make up for the lost output.

The US-appointed interim head of the Iraqi oil ministry Thamir Ghadhban has said his country's production would reach 1.5 million bpd at the end of the month, of which nearly one million bpd will be exported.

But he said production would not return to it pre-war levels of around 2.7 million bpd for at least a year.

As prices are high, inventories low and Iraq's return to the market remains uncertain, OPEC opted for the status quo.

"Despite the fact that the market remains well-supplied, prices displayed an upward trend recently due to the slower-than-anticipated recovery in Iraqi production, coupled with unusually low stock levels," said the final statement of the Doha conference.

"However, with low stock levels anticipated to be replenished during the third quarter, the conference decided to maintain currently agreed production levels, with strict compliance" with current quotas, it added.

OPEC president and Qatari oil minister Abdullah Al-Attiyah said the July 31 meeting will be held even if Iraq does not resume exports, in order to "assess the market".

The cartel's goal is to maintain the price of its basket of crudes within a 22 to 28 dollars per barrel band.

"They are trying to micromanage the market. They've met every six to eight weeks since December," pointed out the EIG's Shook.

While Attiyah declined to speculate on the volume of a potential cut at the end of July, Shook said she would not expect any at all if the situation of the Iraqi oil sector is confirmed to be very degraded.

"The situation appears to be very very bad. I wouldn't expect any further cuts in July, especially if prices continue to be where they are," above 30 dollars per barrel for US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate, she said.

She also said that the fact that they are meeting every six weeks, and not only twice a year as required, facilitates compliance with quotas.

"Since no enforcement power exists, OPEC accords are generally gentlemen agreements. The more often they meet, I think, the easier it is for them to behave like gentlemen. It keeps it fresh in everyone's mind."

Mexico's undersecretary for hydrocarbons, Juan Antonio Barges, also described OPEC's decision to roll over the production ceiling as "reasonable".

Mexico and four other exporters that are not members of the cartel - Russia, Angola, Oman and Syria - were invited to the Doha meeting.

Attiyah hinted that OPEC expected them to reduce their production should the organisation decide to do so in the future.

The flag of Iraq, where the organisation was born 43 years ago, was present in the hall of the Doha meeting, but its seat was vacant.

The US-British coalition ruling post-war Iraq has said it would be up to a future "representative" Iraqi government to decide whether the country remains inside the organisation.

<a href=www.arabtimesonline.com>Arab Times Online, DOHA, June 11, (Agencies): Opec announced Wednesday it will maintain its current production ceiling at least until July 31 when it meets in Vienna to discuss Iraq's return to the market, but urged members to comply strictly to quotas. "We agreed in April that the ceiling is 25.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from June 1," Opec President Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah told reporters at the end of an extraordinary meeting of the group in Qatar. "Today we reconfirmed this agreement. We hope there will be no overproduction (above quotas) during this period," until July 31. Attiyah added that the 11-member oil cartel would do "whatever it can" for war-torn Iraq, adding it was difficult to predict when Baghdad would overcome its technical problems and resume exports. "We hope we can see a government in Iraq, an oil minister. Until then, we will continue discussing with Iraqi oil officials how we can collaborate." Attiyah said the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries would do its "best to accommodate Iraq smoothly," treating it as a "unique" case in order to keep it within the group which was born in Baghdad 43 years ago. The US-British coalition ruling Iraq has said it would be up to the next Iraqi government to decide on remaining in the group also made up by Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela. In a statement released at the end of the meeting, Opec said stability has been "maintained in the market following the decision taken by the (Opec) conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 million bpd, with prices remaining within agreed levels." "Despite the fact that the market remains well-supplied, prices displayed an upward trend recently due to the slower-than-anticipated recovery in Iraqi production, coupled with unusually low stock levels," it said. "However, with low stock levels anticipated to be replenished during the third quarter, the conference decided to maintain currently agreed production levels, with strict compliance, and emphasised that continued vigilance in monitoring market developments is imperative over the coming period." Opec said it "welcomed the return of Iraq to the oil market" and looks forward to the country's resumption of its role in the organisation. "The conference again made its standing call on other oil producers/exporters to continue to cooperate with Opec in its endeavours to maintain market stability in the interests of all concerned." Attiyah said the group will meet in Vienna on July 31 even if Iraq does not resume exports, in order to "assess the market." He refused to speculate on the volume that could be eventually slashed by Opec on July 31 should Iraq resume exports, but hinted that non-Opec exporters would have to join in any potential cut. "Cooperation with them (non-Opec) is important," he said. Non-Opec states Angola, Mexico, Oman, Russia and Syria all took part in the Doha meeting as observers, underlining their commitment to cooperate with Opec. Kuwait Minister of Information and Acting Minister of Oil Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad Al-Sabah said Wednesday that the extraordinary meeting for the oil producing countries Opec launched in Doha will follow-up the international oil market. Sheikh Ahmad Al-Fahad told the press that the current oil prices are excellent, and within the Opec set range 22-28 dollars per barrel. Also: DOHA: Opec cannot permit Iraq to attend meetings of the group while Baghdad remains under the rule of an occupying US-led authority, oil ministers said on Wednesday. "We cannot have relations with Iraq until there is an internationally recognized government, that is a consensus," said Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez. "This does not mean we do not want Iraq in the organization. We do want Iraq in Opec and we think Iraq will want to stay in Opec because they will need a reasonable price for oil," he said. Ministers said the position, agreed during a ministerial meeting on Wednesday, was common to all international organisations that hold diplomatic status. "Opec is not a special case," said Opec President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar.