www.canada.com Hanneke Brooymans and Renata D'Aliesio
The Edmonton Journal Thursday, March 20, 2003

EDMONTON - The Edmonton man who was wounded by a gunman in Yemen is in stable condition in a Swiss hospital, and his mother and pregnant wife are now with him.

Mark Edwards and three other oilfield workers employed by Nabors, a Houston-based drilling company, were shot Tuesday by a Yemeni national who later turned the gun on himself. Edwards was the sole survivor of the attack, which took place in the company's oilfield office in the northern province of Marib, about 160 kilometres northeast of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa.

Edwards was in critical condition when he was flown to a hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, Nabors's president Ziggy Meissner said Wednesday.

He said Edwards's health has improved. "He's stable. He's still in intensive care, but he's well under control, so I don't think it's life-threatening anymore.

"We are in no rush to bring him home," Meissner said from Houston, Tex. "The main thing is he's healing up. His family is there and when he's ready to go home, he's going home."

Meissner said Edwards's wife and mother are in Geneva.

Meanwhile, Edwards's next-door neighbour in Edmonton said the oilfield worker was worried about tensions in the area and was looking for another job.

"He told me he didn't want to work in that part of the world because of the situation there," said Minem Saad, a limousine driver. "He was trying hard to find another job, like in the Caribbean."

Saad said he was surprised when his wife called to say Edwards had been shot. "When that happened, I said to my wife, 'He's a tough guy. He'll be all right.' "

He said he had the odd beer with Edwards and often gave him lifts to the airport. Their wives are close friends, he said.

Edwards' wife, Ninotsaka, is pregnant and has been sad and worried a lot, Saad said. "The night before the accident happened she said to my wife, 'I wish he would come back because of the war that's coming.' "

Tuesday's shooting is not considered connected to the American war against Iraq or terrorism.

Edwards, who has two boys from a previous marriage, met his wife while working in Venezuela.

He had been working for Nabors in Yemen since January 2002, and was scheduled to return to Edmonton on April 4.

Edwards would typically work about six weeks in Yemen, then spend a month at home, said Saad.

Richard Durand, who has been Edwards's friend for 10 years, said the news of the shooting shocked him. He often asked his friend if it was safe working in the Middle East.

"I always kidded with him that he should duck those bullets. To think that he actually took one really bothers me."

Edwards has a very strong character and hardly anything ever bothered him, Durand said. "He was catching scorpions out there. He likes a brush with danger. For him, that's a highlight."

Doug Scheelar, a former employer of Edwards, also remembers him as a "very happy-go-lucky guy."

Work on the rig where Edwards was shot has been suspended until Nabors and police complete their investigation, Meissner said.

The company operates six rigs in Yemen, with 50 to 60 workers on each rig. About a quarter of the workers are foreigners.

Nabors has operated in Yemen since the 1980s. Meissner said no other company workers have died there.

Overall, Yemen is a safe place to work, said Meissner. "Yes, you have to deal with the local tribes and sheiks and it is a wild country, no question. But we enjoy good relationships there with the locals. I consider Yemen not any more dangerous than other places in the world."

Over the years, Foreign Affairs has often warned Canadians against travelling to Yemen. On Feb. 21, the federal department advised Canadians to defer travelling to Yemen until further notice. And last week Foreign Affairs advised Canadians to leave if their presence is not essential.

Between 1996 and 2001, about 157 foreigners have been kidnapped, said the Yemen Gateway, a non-partisan resource for researchers, students and journalists.

In 1993, Edmontonian Mike Schmitz, a salesman for an oil-supply firm, was abducted and taken hostage about 100 kilometres south of the Yemeni capital. The kidnappers were using Schmitz as a bargaining tool in a bid to reclaim land confiscated by the government.

Schmitz was eventually released unharmed.

rd'aliesio@thejournal.canwest.com hbrooymans@thejournal.canwest.com

www.forbes.com Reuters, 03.20.03, 9:04 AM ET By Sujata Rao

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - World oil markets have been able to shrug off the effective loss of Iraq's oil exports because its high sulphur sour crude is of precisely the quality that is in abundant supply, traders say.

"It has got to the situation when we actually need a war to get Iraqi crude off the market," one trader with an oil major said. "There is an awful lot of heavy sour crude on the market -- it's a global phenomenon."

As the first U.S. missiles pound Baghdad, the absence of Iraqi crude supplies is hardly being felt as world markets are awash with barrels from the OPEC cartel.

Dealers had believed the loss of Iraq's 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude could send oil prices rocketing, and necessitate a release from international emergency stocks.

But now they say extra oil is the last thing they need.

"Sour crudes will suffer a lot with this war," said a U.S. trader. "If the U.S. releases crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve it will almost all be sour. If there is no release, Saudi Arabia will cover the shortage and Saudi oil is sour."

Sour differentials are hovering near historical U.S. lows of $7 under U.S. benchmark WTI sweet crude, as traders bet a war will be short.

European benchmark sour Russian Urals too is falling steadily from the recent highs caused by shipping delays.

Oil prices which spent most of 2003 above the $30 a barrel mark due to war jitters and the loss of barrels from strike-hit Venezuela, have steadied in recent days, partly because of large output increases by OPEC.

Saudi Arabia, seeking to cushion oil markets against a halt in Iraqi exports, raised supplies in April by up to 12 percent and is already pumping well above nine million bpd of its 10.5 million bpd capacity.

"What Saudi has done is produced more and more in anticipation of war. There is loads of it hitting the U.S. and no one really needs it right now," one player said.

The International Energy Agency, the West's energy watchdog, said on Thursday it saw no need yet to release emergency oil stocks as it was confident OPEC could make up for the shortfall.

But OPEC said the market was oversupplied.

"Oil prices are heading downwards. This shows there is more oil in the market than the market can absorb," OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah told Reuters in Doha on Thursday.

EUROPE TAKES VENEZUELAN CRUDE

The last planned shipment of Iraqi crude was set to sail from the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan on Thursday.

United Nations inspectors remain there to monitor exports and Iraq has said it will try to maintain the pipeline flow, but lifters who fear disruptions are not keen to send tankers there. Iraq's Gulf exports have halted.

Analysts say a key issue has been the delay to the war beyond February -- a month when winter energy demand is still high. In the milder second quarter demand usually drops about two million barrels per day.

U.S. refiners, preparing for the summer gasoline season have been running on low sulphur, or sweet, crudes rather than sour. This has started to send sour barrels to Europe in a rare reverse transatlantic arbitrage.

Several European plants have already bought Venezuelan sour crude, which has been falling fast against the U.S. sweet benchmark, and some importers say it is landing in Europe at a $1 advantage to Mediterranean sour benchmark Urals.

"Urals is the last bastion of sour strength. Now with Venezuelan barrels arbing, it is under pressure to correct," one trader said.

Higher Russian exports in summer and the end of weather-linked shipment delays would also pressurise sours.

In Asia, buyers who have received full contractual volumes of Saudi and other OPEC grades, are now shying away from importing their usual diet of sweet West African grades.

"What we have is Asia not taking much West African crude and unwanted Venezuelan in the U.S., backing into Europe," a trader said. "The oversupply problem is just going around the world."

(Additional reporting by Manuela Badawy in New York)

www.businesswire.com Business Editors

MORRISTOWN, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 20, 2003--Schindler Elevator Corporation, in conjunction with Ascensores Schindler, Venezuela, was recently awarded a $5.2 million elevator and escalator contract for the Valencia, Venezuela Metro project.
Schindler will supply 41 escalators and 18 elevators. The project will provide for much-needed public transportation in Valencia, Venezuela's third largest city, and will comprise seven stations when completed in 2004.
"We are pleased to play a significant role in the development of the Valencia Metro as it will be a vital means for allowing the populace, in one of the largest cities in Venezuela, to be able to move from place to place quickly and efficiently," said Deborah Nowakoski, Schindler Export Manager. "Our range of products and services will contribute considerably to the overall success of Valencia's public transportation system."
All escalators will be manufactured at Schindler's Clinton, N.C. plant. Elevadores Atlas Schindler SA, Brazil, will manufacture all elevators, and Schindler's operations in Caracas will be responsible for installing all units.
The general contractor for the project is Siemens Transportation Systems Inc. of Sacramento, Calf. and they will coordinate all efforts between US and foreign-based subcontractors.

About Schindler Elevator Corporation

Schindler Elevator Corporation designs, manufactures, installs, modernizes and services a broad range of elevators, escalators and moving walks for various people-moving applications. The company is the North American operation of the Swiss-based Schindler Group, the world's largest escalator manufacturer and the second largest elevator manufacturer. For additional information about Schindler Elevator Corporation, visit the company's Web site at www.us.schindler.com.


--30--KF/ny*

CONTACT: Schindler Elevator Corp., Morristown
         Kathy Rucki, 973/397-6564
         kathy_rucki@us.schindler.com
          or
         Gibbs & Soell Public Relations, New York
         Audra Hession
         ahession@gibbs-soell.com
          or
         Naomi Salad
         nsalad@gibbs-soell.com
         212/697-2600

KEYWORD: NEW JERSEY VENEZUELA BRAZIL INTERNATIONAL LATIN AMERICA
INDUSTRY KEYWORD: MANUFACTURING
SOURCE: Schindler Elevator Corporation

www.abs-cbnnews.com By NEELA BANERJEE The New York Times

As the US military completed its plans to invade Iraq, disruptions of oil supplies and shipments from the Persian Gulf appeared to have already begun Wednesday, industry experts said.

Most notably, exports from Iraq under the United Nations’ oil-for-food program have dwindled to a trickle, a spokesman for the program confirmed, after Secretary-General Kofi Annan of the United Nations suspended the program within Iraq on Monday. More broadly, some oil tankers scheduled to arrive at other Middle Eastern countries are refusing to enter the Persian Gulf because of security concerns, said Nader Sultan, chief executive of the Kuwait Petroleum Corp.

“Companies are saying, ‘Do I send my ships up to the Gulf?”’ Sultan said in a phone interview from Kuwait. “And it’s not just to Kuwait. Then, the question is up to the captain. Beyond insurance, it’s safety, and someone has to make a judgment as to whether it’s safe.”

He added: “It’s already happening, already in the whole of the Gulf, there are tankers not going up. Certain shipping companies and certain countries are rethinking that their ships shouldn’t come here.”

So far, the oil markets have shrugged off concerns that such disruptions could be substantial or last long. At the end of trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday, oil for May delivery dropped, to $29.36 a barrel, while oil for April delivery fell $1.79, to $29.88 a barrel. The price of oil has fallen 21 percent this week on the belief that a war in Iraq will be quick and that there will be little damage to Iraq’s oil fields and facilities.

Iraq shipped some of its biggest loads last week, averaging about 1.8 million barrels a day, according to Walid Khadduri, editor in chief of the Middle East Economic Survey and an expert on the Iraqi oil industry. But shipments began to shrink considerably by the end of the week, Khadduri said.

Now, with the suspension of the oil-for-food program, the loading of oil from the Iraqi port of Mina al-Bakr on the Persian Gulf has stopped, said Ian Steele, a program spokesman. Oil is still flowing from Iraq’s northern Kirkuk field to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, Steele said, where one tanker took on oil Tuesday and another is expected on Friday.

Oil traders and other industry experts said they expected Iraqi exports to end soon even from Ceyhan because the Iraqis would probably shut down most production in preparation for the war. Iraq sends about 35 percent of its oil to the United States, according to PFC Energy, a Washington consulting group, and substantial shipments also go to European oil companies like ENI of Italy and TotalFina Elf of France.

Oil industry representatives said that they would not be badly hurt by the suspension of Iraqi exports because they had already scaled back imports from Iraq over the last year.

A pricing plan for Iraqi oil under the oil-for-food plan proved particularly onerous and discouraged oil sales to many foreigners, oil traders and companies said. Iraq’s own decisions throughout the year to increase or decrease exports will also frustrate buyers.

Over the last two months Iraq’s oil exports have increased as Baghdad compensated for shortfall of oil from Venezuela arising from the general strike there. Still, the growing probability of war over the last few months has sent many companies looking elsewhere for more stable oil supplies.

“People have anticipated the possible cutoff of Iraqi oil for months now,” said Sara Wachter, a spokeswoman for TotalFina Elf, whose own imports have fallen to “pretty minuscule levels” now from 2.5 million barrels a month in November.

Wachter said that oil companies operating in PLDT states were producing more oil along with PLDT members, which are producing far above their quotas to make up for the sharp decline in Venezuelan exports and for a possible halt in Iraqi oil. They are also buying up some of the extra PLDT output, she said.

But oil companies buying oil from other Persian Gulf states now face increasingly more expensive insurance rates, making the journey to that region particularly difficult, industry experts said.

Please send your comments or feedback to newsfeedback@abs-cbn.com

www.canada.com By John McLeod
The Daily News

CRUDE-OIL MARKET traders were oversimplifying things again yesterday, sending prices down again after Tuesday’s largest one-day price decline in 16 months. It’s an indication of an optimistic viewpoint, or perhaps wish, that the imminent war against Iraq will be short-lived and there’ll be plenty of oil around.

It’s a bet, according to a report that spilled from yesterday’s Money mailbag, that could be a lot more risky than it might seem. That’s because the study from Peters & Co. Ltd. casts doubt on whether there is enough excess production capacity to replace the supply that will be lost because of the war.

Lost, or “shut in,” as the industry calls it, will be Iraq’s production of about 2.5 million barrels of oil a day, and another half-million barrels as Kuwait “shuts in” some of its production along its northern border with Iraq. Exacerbating the situation is the fact that Venezuela’s production continues to be well below its quota as the oil workers’ strike in that country enters its fourth month.

An analysis of historical periods of crude-oil supply disruptions done by the Peters & Co. experts shows that Saudi Arabia has borne a disproportionate share of production increases to offset previous losses. However, this report notes that the Saudis now have only 690,000 barrels a day of unused capacity, compared to previous disruptions, when that country’s unused capacity was three million barrels a day or more.

Moreover, it suggests that excess capacity among members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “may be overstated” by about a million barrels a day.

“We calculate that OPEC’s near-term excess capacity may only be sufficient to replace production losses from Iraq and Venezuela’s sub-peak production, but not large enough to help rebuild worldwide inventories,” the analysts note. “The implication is that crude oil prices may be sustained at well-above normal levels for some time.”

There also is no good news when looking at the ability of non-OPEC oil-producing countries to take up the slack.

“Non-OPEC crude production,” the report says, “tends to run at capacity, except when countries like Norway and Mexico join OPEC in short-term production cuts.”

Further, the largest non-OPEC producer is Russia, which has seen production recover from a post-communism low of 5.5 million barrels a day to a recent high of eight million.

“The bad news,” the report warns, “is that Russia has no unused capacity in the short run, and neither does any other non-OPEC country.”

The Peters & Co. analysts concede that if a war in Iraq is short — and does not result in any damage to oil production capacity — and if Venezuela “surprisingly recovers” to its former production level, then the current war premium on crude prices could quickly evaporate, as crude-oil traders are betting this week.

However, the analysts note that even under that optimistic scenario, the low level of worldwide inventories is likely to keep prices well above normal levels of approximately $22 US a barrel for the near future.

Then there’s this less optimistic scenario:

“If the war in Iraq is protracted and there exist longer-term restrictions on Venezuela’s capacity,” this report warns, “then crude prices would remain very high, and could even spike to higher levels.”

Stay tuned, folks.

jmcleod@hfxnews.ca