A Tale of Two Fables

www.prospect.org By Robert B. Reich Issue Date: 4.1.03

Fable 1: The world is blessed with an advanced civilization renowned for its dynamism and freedom. Most of the world's peoples admire and emulate it. But this civilization fails to notice a primitive, evil force that emerges worldwide, intent on destroying it. Motivated by envy and hate, the evil force exploits the openness of the civilization to wreak havoc upon it. Only in the nick of time does the civilization find the strength and moral fiber necessary to destroy the evil and thus save humanity.

Fable 2: The world is ruled by a giant corporatist power that exerts control through technologies and materialist comforts. This sinister force acts to seduce, brainwash, monitor and intimidate the world's people. But a few descendants of a former, more spiritual world, hidden away in mountains and teeming cities, keep the old faith alive. Through their cunning and bravery, these outlaws discover weaknesses in the system, and they exploit those weaknesses to destroy it and thereby liberate humanity.

Whatever happens to Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, America's long-term security may depend more on which fable most people worldwide believe describes the future.

These are potent and dangerous fables. Each is animated by the righteousness of its cause and the conviction that survival depends on destroying the opposing evil. Each also offers a comprehensive narrative that explains all politics, economics and social change as aspects of a single drama played out on the world stage. And each fable reinforces its opposite: The more one is believed and acted upon, the more plausible its opposite becomes to those who are thereby threatened. And as those who are threatened act upon the opposing fable, they thereby confirm the fears of those who cling to the other.

By acting as if it believes Fable 1, the Bush administration is starting to convince many people around the globe that Fable 2 is closer to the truth. In its commitment to invading Iraq regardless of what most of its major allies believe to be necessary or prudent, its insistence on the right to move preemptively against any nation it considers potentially dangerous to American interests, its quickness to see terrorist links to al-Qaeda in almost any separatist or insurgent movement -- in Chechnya, the Philippines, Colombia, Venezuela and many other hot spots around the world -- and its assertion of American military power as the preferred method of dealing with instability, the administration is fomenting anti-Americanism almost everywhere outside the United States. In a matter of months the White House has undermined NATO, severely jeopardized America's relationships with Europe, Japan and Latin America, and encouraged Arab and Islamic extremism across North Africa and Asia.

The point here is not to suggest a moral equivalency between terrorism and Bush's foreign policy but to understand why the administration's ham-fisted approach to diplomacy -- you're either with us or against us -- is playing into the hands of radicals who want the world to believe Fable 2. That a large and growing number of people outside the United States now tell pollsters America is a greater threat to world peace than al-Qaeda is evidence not just of the White House's inept communications but of its larger failure to explain and justify its actions to a world that had been largely sympathetic toward America in the months following September 11 but is now almost universally cynical about this nation's motives.

Not since the Vietnam War have we witnessed such a profound loss of faith in the moral authority of the United States. The consequences are potentially tragic. If we appear more like the world's bully than its beacon light, how can we count on our friends and neighbors to help us reduce the odds of further terrorist attacks here? If Fable 2 offers the world's destitute and angry a more convincing explanation for their condition, how can we prevent the ranks of terrorists from growing?

Equally worrisome is the possibility that Americans come to believe Fable 1, unleashing a new and more virulent xenophobia and jingoism. An American public scarred by 9-11 and fearful of future terrorist attacks is especially vulnerable to demagoguery about America's unalloyed virtue and a worldwide conspiracy of evil that threatens our survival. A similar narrative captured the American mind in the 1950s when communism seemed poised to obliterate us, but in the 1950s we hadn't been traumatized by thousands of civilian deaths on American soil. The consequences this time around could be a larger erosion of civil liberties at home and a more uncompromising militarism abroad that gives the rest of the world greater reason to believe Fable 2.

Extremists gain power when politics becomes polarized around opposite views of reality. As the two fables gain credibility among opposing camps, the world's single remaining superpower grows ever more isolated, and the world becomes an increasingly dangerous place.

Robert B. Reich Copyright © 2003 by The American Prospect, Inc. Preferred Citation: Robert B. Reich, "A Tale of Two Fables," The American Prospect vol. 14 no. 4, April 1, 2003 . This article may not be resold, reprinted, or redistributed for compensation of any kind without prior written permission from the author. Direct questions about permissions to permissions@prospect.org.

asia.reuters.com Thu March 20, 2003 03:00 AM ET By Tanya Pang

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices tumbled by more than $1 to three-month lows on Thursday after the United States began a long-awaited war on oil exporter Iraq, and dealers bet on a swift U.S. victory with little disruption to Middle East crude flows.

The OPEC producers' cartel pledged to fill any gap in supply due to hostilities in the oil-rich Middle East, while the West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw no reason to release emergency stocks for the time being.

Hours after U.S. jets began a dawn raid of Baghdad, officials in nearby Saudi Arabia and Kuwait said crude production continued normally, while shippers reported no interruptions to tanker movements.

U.S. light crude CLc1 fell $1.35 to $28.53 a barrel, while London's Brent crude LCOc1 dropped $1.02 to $25.73 a barrel.

"Prices have come down because the uncertainty is gone. The start of the war just means the end of the war is closer," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney.

Geoff Pyne, consultant to Sempra Energy said there were still potential dangers ahead that could cause crude to shoot higher.

"Most obviously, there is a danger that Saddam may blow up the Iraqi oilfields, either as a defensive measure, or to deny them to the United States. Even if this doesn't happen there is a high chance of at least a month of missing Iraqi exports," Pyne said.

The White House in Washington confirmed it had launched a military attack to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"These are the opening stages of what will be a broad and concerted campaign," President Bush said in a televised address.

Washington says Iraq, which supplies more than four percent of world oil exports, has stocked weapons of mass destruction in violation of U.N. resolutions drawn up after Baghdad invaded Kuwait in August, 1990. Iraq denies this.

SAUDI POISED TO FILL SHORTFALL

A Saudi source said OPEC's leading producer was poised to respond to any oil supply disruptions following the U.S. attack on neighboring Iraq.

"The crude oil is there," the source said, reiterating that the kingdom, the world's biggest oil exporter, has 10.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of production capacity.

"The market is well supplied. What everyone fears is Saddam Hussein burning the oilfields," said the Saudi source. "Events are going to be the dictating factor here."

Riyadh has already ramped up production well beyond nine million bpd before war erupted -- in part to cover outages from strike-hit Venezuela, industry sources say.

Kuwaiti crude output is running at around 2.4 million bpd, and the producer has said it will only close its northern fields bordering Iraq, which pump 400,000 bpd, if necessary.

Kuwait's oil sector is on high alert for any attack from former occupier Iraq, whose departing troops in 1991 torched hundreds of the country's oil wells.

Kuwait, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar together ship about 15 million bpd of oil through the Gulf.

OPEC TO USE SPARE CAPACITY

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries immediately pledged to fill any shortfall in world supplies created by the U.S. attack on Iraq, where exports were running at about 1.7 million bpd up to a week ago.

Analysts reckon OPEC has between one million and two million bpd of spare capacity, with many of its members already running at full throttle.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah of Qatar said he had spoken with members of the 11-strong cartel after the U.S. launched its attack.

"As a result of those consultations, I am herewith reiterating OPEC's resolve to make up for any supply shortfall resulting from developing events," he said in a statement carried on OPEC's official news agency.

"To this end, member countries have pledged to use, in the interim, their available excess capacities to ensure continued supply."

Iraqi exports had ground to a virtual halt after the United Nations evacuated all international staff from Iraq, including those monitoring the country's oil sales under the oil-for-food exchange program.

The Paris-based IEA, the energy watchdog for industrialized nations overseeing four billion barrels of emergency stockpiles, said it saw no reason to dip into strategic reserves for the time being and it as confident OPEC would honor its pledge.

"At the precise hour we speak, I think it is not necessary (to release stocks)," IEA executive director Claude Mandil told Reuters.

"We had a very strong statement from OPEC, which has said they will ensure any shortfall and we are confident they will do their best," he said.

IEA members Japan and South Korea, two of Asia's biggest oil consumers and heavily reliant on Middle East imports, also said they saw no immediate need to release oil reserves.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Sunday, November 10, 2002 By: Oscar Heck

Date: Thu, 07 Nov 2002 15:06:08 -0500 To: editor@vheadline.com From: Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com Subject: Congratulations

Dear Editor: Have been following your site for a few months now. Wonderful site and well thought out and interesting commentaries, particularly your own recent "Reality is out there for all to see!"

I hope, as you, that readers will have enough discernment to weed out facts from fantasy and/or subtle subliminal use of language to argue points such as in Gustavo Coronel's comment "by passing dozens of laws, many of which are clearly confiscatory in nature," used in the context of anti-Chavez rhetoric.

Gustavo Coronel gives the impression that such laws do not exist in countries that he may consider more "democratic." If he believes this, he is very wrong, since it is not true.

I am in Canada at the moment and "confiscatory laws" have long existed here and still do ... there are reasons for such laws to exist, unfortunately to the dismay of some few.

Gustavo Coronel purports to being factual. However, I would suggest that VHeadline.com readers verify and double-check some of the "facts" he writes about. Example: "This happens only in Zimbabwe and here" found in his commentary "Carson's Reality."

I do not think that such a statement can be construed as an opinion.

Oscar Heck oscarheck111@hotmail.com

P.S. Really enjoyed Charles Hardy's realistic analysis of the 2,000,000 signatures.

Read complete article by Jacque Lynn Schiller

.......... "The Flute Player" introduces Arn Chorn Pond, a survivor of Cambodia's Khmer Rouge regime, who while struggling with his own guilt for still being alive, manages to initiate something positive -- in this case resurrecting the music of his country's few remaining masters. He also became an advocate for Amnesty International. Pond's story is excruciating at times and it made me sick to understand the military's murderous campaign was occurring at the same time that I was enjoying a carefree childhood on a Texas riverbank. Likewise, "Revolution" unveils the media corruption and public gullibility behind last year's (thankfully short-lived) coup of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Irish filmmakers Donnacha O'Briain and Kim Bartley originally set out to interview the enigmatic Chavez and were given unprecedented access to his daily routine, palace life, and trips to the countryside (where he listened to his poverty stricken citizens' problems and encouraged them to read and learn the constitution). After 9/11, he called on the U.S. not to "fight terror with terror" and suddenly Colin Powell was on CNN claiming that Chavez was mentally ill. Chavez was already in trouble with oil interests for calling on controls that would benefit the financially burdened people of Venezuela. Obviously his opinions were not appreciated. The media (Chavez only has access to one television station) immediately began a disparaging campaign against Chavez and the filmmakers found themselves witnessing an overthrow attempt. Thankfully, the people overtook the palace declaring their constitutional rights to speak out and be represented by the leader they voted for. And for once, a happy ending. Chavez was reinstated and Colin Powell returned to state that America had no involvement in the uprising. Judging by the "Fuck You's" hurled at his image, I don't think anyone in the audience believed him.

This is what film fests are all about. The petty inconveniences and parking woes seem irrelevant when you see something that knocks you so hard. With films there can be entertainment and there can be education, and in the end, SXSW satisfied both.

www.vheadline.com Posted: Friday, November 08, 2002 By: VHeadline.com Reporters

Residents of the eastern Caracas suburb of Chacao are hoping to collect around 7,000 signatures that they will then deliver to the National Electoral College (CNE) in two weeks time to call for a vote to see is the suburb's residence approve of the continuing protest in Plaza Altamira by a group of dissident military officers calling for a consultative referendum or President Hugo Chavez Frias' resignation.

Many local residents are complaining about the effects the protest is having on transportation in the area and an appeal has already been made to the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) to order an end to the protest.

Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) rejects President's CNE request.

The Supreme Tribunal of Justice has declined a request by President Hugo Chavez Frias, asking the Court to set aside recently approved legislation, which prevents the board on the National Electoral College (CNE) from being disbanded until a new board has been appointed.

The refusal will now permit the CNE to continue processing the opposition's petition for a consultative referendum, which will be non-binding, on the President's rule. Despite the resignation of CNE president, Roberto Ruiz, earlier this month the CNE is assuring that it will be able to process the petition and decide on its validity within the 30 day timeframe it previously set out.