The Street.com By Rebecca Byrne Staff Reporter 04/10/2003 11:28 AM EDT

What a difference two months make. Back in February, economists were fretting about a jump in oil prices, saying it could spark another recession. But today, with the end of Saddam Hussein's regime in sight, analysts are wondering whether oil prices could be in for a prolonged slump.

A couple months ago, oil prices shot up to $40 a barrel as tensions with Iraq began to intensify and a strike in Venezuela reduced supplies amid strong seasonal demand. The spike up severely weakened the U.S. economy, leading it to contract in February and March, according to some economists. But now, the Venezuelan strike is over, demand is set to fall off and an end to the Iraq war seems imminent.

While crude oil already has fallen to under $29 a barrel, analysts say prices could continue to drop, possibly to as low as $22 a barrel over the long term, particularly if there is an influx of Iraqi oil into the world markets.

A decline in oil prices is certainly good news for the economy, as higher energy prices often act as a tax on the consumer. Still, economists warn that higher fuel prices haven't been the only factor hampering the economy in recent months, and a big decline in oil prices won't necessarily cure all of the market's ills.

"The mini-inventory cycle that has recently gripped the automotive industry ... is currently depressing factory activity," said ABN Amro chief economist Steven Ricchiuto. "The tightening of lending standards being applied to the consumer sector by domestic financial institutions is also a significant growth concern, [and] the seemingly endless corporate cost-cutting initiatives are clearly sapping the vitality from the recovery."

Still, a fall in oil prices wouldn't hurt. Iraq holds the world's second-largest oil reserve after Saudi Arabia, with more than 112 billion barrels of oil. Because about 90% of the land is unexplored, some experts believe that the reserves could be even larger. And because Iraq will need billions of dollars to repair its infrastructure after years of sanctions and economic weakness, some analysts think Iraq will be given a free pass to export as much oil as possible once the war is over.

"It's obviously going to have a long-term dampening effect [on oil prices] because it's going to increase supply, or replace supply that hasn't been in the market for 12 years," said Paul Larson, an energy analyst at Morningstar. "Iraq has the second-largest reserves, and it's not even in the top five in terms of production."

Before the war began, Iraq was exporting roughly 2 million barrels of oil per day, down sharply from around 3.5 million barrels before the first gulf war, according to the Energy Information Administration. The EIA, a statistical agency of the Department of Energy, said that the country's production capacity is no higher than 2.9 million barrels per day, with export potential of 2.5 million barrels per day.

One major impediment to producing more oil -- besides U.N. sanctions -- has been that the country lacks the necessary tools and systems. But analysts say new state-of-the-art American technology could help to increase production capacity sharply over the next few years.

"The industry has been in a chronic state of underinvestment for roughly 10 years, so you have immediate rehabilitation needs that are very pressing," said Tyler Dann, an analyst at Banc of America. "The rehabilitation phase and the care of existing assets will take place over the next 12 to 15 months, and then I expect Iraq will come back toward sustainable production of 3 million to 3.2 million barrels per day."

Although it will take some time to negotiate contracts -- some foreign contracts to expand production in Iraq already exist -- and to repair oil facilities, analysts said prices could fall in anticipation of an increase in production.

Iraq has stopped exporting oil since the war began, partly because the buyers of oil weren't sure who they should pay. Saudi Arabia has made up the shortfall, and was recently producing more than 9 million barrels of oil per day, according to industry sources. Once the war is over, however, analysts expect Iraqi production to ramp up again.

Vice President Dick Cheney said Wednesday that he expects Iraq to produce between 2.5 million and 3 million barrels of oil per day by the end of the year -- a number that Fahnestock analyst Fadel Gheit called "conservative."

"Once we get this mess cleaned up, Iraq will open up its oil sector to investment, we're going to lift the sanctions and sponsor all sorts of programs for economic development," Gheit said. "If we apply our technology and expertise, Iraq will have incredible upside potential."

After the steep climb earlier this year, Nymex crude oil is now back down to $28.80 a barrel, and Gheit and Larson said they expect prices to fall to between $22 and $24 going forward. Of course, it's not just Iraq that is prompting talk of lower oil prices. Production in Venezuela is getting back to normal, Nigeria has started pumping oil again and seasonal demand is due to fall in the coming months.

Still, analysts believe Iraq is likely to pressure oil costs over the long term, although prices will ultimately be supported by production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Typically, OPEC considers intervening when the price of oil moves outside a band of $22 to $28 a barrel.

OPEC "tried before to pump as much oil as it could into the market and at the end of the day they got less money for it," Gheit said. "They would rather see a modest cut in production and a modest decline in prices."

On Tuesday, OPEC president Abdullah Hamad bin Al-Attiyah said he is worried about a glut of oil and requested an emergency meeting April 24 to reconsider how much the cartel is producing. OPEC often produces more than its stated goals.

Meanwhile, amid the speculation that oil prices could sag, shares of energy companies have moved lower, with the AMEX Oil Index down 3% for the year. Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE - news - commentary) is down 1% year to date, while ChevronTexaco (CVX:NYSE - news - commentary) is off 3%. Oil-service firm Schlumberger (SLB:NYSE - news - commentary) is down more than 10%, although Halliburton (HAL:NYSE - news - commentary) is up 11%. A Halliburton unit won a U.S. government contract to assess and extinguish oil-well fires in Iraq, but missed out on a larger contract for reconstruction in the country.

Reuters, 04.10.03, 2:29 PM ET

PARIS, April 10 (Reuters) - The head of the West's Energy watchdog said on Thursday that OPEC had shown through its sharp increase in oil output to cover for Iraq that the once-feared cartel is no longer a threat to rich nations.

Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told Reuters that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had demonstrated they share goals with oil importers such as the United States.

"The past months have proved that OPEC and consumers can share a lot of common goals," Mandil said in an interview.

"I don't feel OPEC is a threat. Thirty years ago it was considered so because oil was used as a weapon," he added.

Cartel leader Saudi Arabia, Iran and other OPEC members have lifted oil supplies sharply to cover for the shortfall from Iraq, and other export hitches in Venezuela and Nigeria, helping to cool a spike in prices.

OPEC's reference oil price has slumped from above $33 per barrel last month to below OPEC's target level of $25 this week.

The Paris-based agency was set up in the wake of the 1973 oil crisis, when Arab oil powers placed an embargo on the West. It oversees huge emergency stockpiles to be used in the case of another major supply disruption.

But cooperation between the two bodies has grown to such an extent that the IEA held back from releasing stocks when Iraqi exports stopped last month, trusting in OPEC's ability to maintain ample supplies.

OPEC ministers are now discussing a cut in supplies to stop prices falling further.

Mandil said OPEC and oil importers still disagreed over price, and said OPEC's $25 per barrel target was so high as to damage world economic growth. It also constituted a disincentive for companies to hold sufficient inventory levels, he said.

"Price is not a shared goal. I say this price is too high," Mandil said, declining to specify his ideal price.

"We believe the price should be the result of market forces, not market management," he said.

La semana pasada Hugo Chávez declaró que Venezuela necesita y requiere reestructurar su deuda externa, que no es de las más pesadas del continente pero es pesada, es pesadísima. Han pasado 4 años y todavía no entiende la diferencia entre de la reestructuración y refinanciamiento a pesar de que forma parte de su lenguaje económico desde 1998. Para los mercados internacionales refinanciamiento se refiere a emisiones de nuevos bonos de deuda para cancelar los que se van venciendo mientras que reestructuración implica la declaración de una moratoria o cesación de pagos de la deuda externa por parte del Gobierno. Los altos precios del petróleo ayudaron a mantener la deuda venezolana estable a pesar del paro cívico nacional, pero la incontinencia verbal de Chávez una vez mas causo un revuelo internacional al declarar que Venezuela necesita reestructurar su deuda. Estas desafortunadas declaraciones provocaron un derrumbe en papeles venezolanos y que el riesgo país se incrementara. Las operaciones con bonos a corto plazo se suspendieron las porque ningún comprador estaba interesado en colocar dinero en estos instrumentos. El mercado inmediatamente empezó a salir de los títulos venezolanos, provocando una caída de 2 puntos porcentuales en pocas horas. En solo dos días los Flirbs bajaron más de 4% de su valor de venta a un precio de 67%, los DCB -3% a 66,5%, los bonos Par -1,25% a 75,5% y los Global 27 cayeron 3% a 59,25%, su nivel más bajo desde que Chávez asumió el poder. El mercado europeo se vio afectado ya que los inversionistas extranjeros temen que Venezuela sea incapaz de cumplir con sus obligaciones financieras; este miedo hizo que bonos venezolanos en euros con vencimiento en junio cayeran de 99% a 94%. Estos constantes arranques verbales de Chávez le causan tanto daño al patrimonio nacional que sus lacayos ministeriales tienen que apaciguar los incendios que sus palabras causan. José Vicente Rangel ha sido uno de los principales bomberos que ha tenido este régimen, justificando que lo que Chávez dijo –por televisión- no es lo que realmente lo que quiso decir, sino que los medios lo malinterpretan; parte de la campaña mediática para desprestigiar al presidente. A los ministros de Finanzas y de Planificación les toco esta vez calmar el nerviosismo que generaron las palabras de Chávez sobre una posible reestructuración de la deuda. Nóbrega declaró que la moratoria o reestructuración forzada de la deuda externa está totalmente descartada y tuvo que asegurarle a los inversionistas que el Gobierno pretende cancelar sus compromisos durante 2003; pero presentó la posibilidad de realizar un canje voluntario para el segundo semestre. A raíz de sus declaraciones la pérdida se redujo a 1,5 y para el viernes, los DCB cerraron en 69,25 y los global 27 en 60,25. Mientras tanto Pérez le aconsejó a Chávez que a partir de ahora utilizara reprogramación voluntaria o canje de deuda cuando se refiera a la posición de Venezuela. Para Domingo Maza Zavala, director del BCV, una reestructuración de los pagos de la deuda externa no sería oportuna porque Venezuela se encuentra actualmente sometida a una severa presión fiscal. Chávez ha declarado que su gobierno revolucionario no ha dejado de pagar la deuda externa y que seguirán pagando, pero que los $4.324 MM (14% del presupuesto de 2003) que tiene que cancelar en 2003, es mucho dinero. El Gobierno solo pudo recaudar unos Bs 2 BB durante el 1er trimestre de los cuales, Bs 1 BB se pagó en deuda externa. La caída de los ingresos petroleros y el vencimiento de deuda externa ha hecho que el Gobierno prepare una operación de canje entre abril y mayo. Si no se alivia el peso de la deuda, el Gobierno no contará con los fondos necesarios para estimular el crecimiento económico. La incontinencia verbal de Chávez es un fenómeno que se ha manifestado constantemente durante estos largos cuatro años de gobierno revolucionario. Al comienzo de su mandato dijo que era el presidente de los pobres y que no dormiría tranquilo sabiendo que hay niños viviendo en la calle y que convertiría la residencia presidencial de La Casona en un albergue para ellos. Que convertiría al Palacio de Miraflores en una Universidad Bolivariana. Hoy en día hay mas niños que duermen en la calle, más nuevos pobres, la educación está más deficiente que nunca. Mientras tanto la corrupción aflora, los personeros del gobierno se enriquecen a paso de vencedores, la economía del país se cae a pedazos, el desempleo aumenta, la delincuencia está desbordada y el presidente de los pobres se pasea por el mundo a bordo de un jet digno de un jeque árabe. Ataca verbalmente a Colombia, España y EUA, mientras halaga a Cuba, Irak e Irán, países cuyos gobiernos autocráticos someten a sus pueblos a vivir en la pobreza. Recientemente dijo que el Area de Libre Comercio de las Américas (ALCA) es una amenaza para los países latinoamericanos y que de concretarse se estaría sellando un pacto de hambre y desigualdad para los habitantes de la región. Para Chávez, el ALCA es una iniciativa de EUA para apoderarse del control económico y comercial de los países de la región. Con orgulloso declara haber despedido a 17.000 empleados de Pdvsa por que eran traidores a la patria, cuando el verdadero traidor es él, por dejar a miles de familias venezolanas desprovistas de sustento económico. Acusa a todo Venezolana que se le oponga de traidor, golpista, fascista y oligarca, cuando la única persona que ha comprobado ser todas esas cosas se llama Hugo Chávez. Internacionalmente se cuestiona la capacidad de que Venezuela cumpla con sus proyecciones económicas y que esta administración pueda conducir el desarrollo económico del país porque así lo reflejan los mercados. La opinión internacional no cambiara su percepción de Venezuela si no se soluciona la crisis política en el corto plazo.

Daily Review from veninvestor.com

April 10, 2003

"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." - Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

"Everybody where I live knows the guerrillas are on the other side of the river, that they maintain their camp there. Everybody knows this. Everybody." - Maria, a villager who lives on the Colombian-Venezuelan border, concerning the presence of FARC guerrillas in Venezuela   "The immediate challenge of reestablishing macroeconomic stability will require addressing the government's large borrowing requirements and removing the recently imposed exchange and price controls." - International Monetary Fund Report on Venezuela   "We have faith, we hope that a recall referendum takes place, according to the Bolivarian Constitution" - US Ambassador to Venezuela, Charles Shapiro       Good day,   While the War in Iraq seems to have ended, the struggle to institute democracy in Iraq has only started. Yesterday, we watched as many Iraqis celebrated the end of a Saddam era, stomping their shoes against images of the ruthless dictator.  Others, who were not shown on US channels, cried from fear and frustration, even when they admitted that they didn't want Saddam in power.   Why weren't the Iraqis jubilant when the US and British forces first arrived? Because they were living in a regime of terror, where any show of emotion meant death. One woman, clumsily waving to the troops, was quickly hanged by her own townspeople. People were willing to speak against the regime off camera, reporters said, but they knew that challenging the regime on camera could end their life.   Elsewhere, Castro took advantage of the war by quickly imprisoning and sentencing anyone those who opposed his regime, including journalists, poets, and activists.  "Last week, Fidel Castro's government started a series of closed-door trials of 78 dissidents, many of them associated with the Varela Project, a grassroots petition drive seeking more democracy in Cuba," reports the Financial Times. "On Monday, 36 of them were convicted...given prison sentences ranging from 12 to 27 years."   Then there's Chavez.  Even as the US signals that dictators that abet terrorists will no longer be tolerated, Chavez insists in meddling with the FARC.  Reuters reports that "Venezuela on Wednesday rejected allegations by Colombian border residents that its aircraft bombed a village in Colombia last month in support of leftist rebels fighting right-wing paramilitaries."  In fact, "Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has ordered an inquiry into the allegations by border residents that Venezuelan military helicopters and planes crossed into Colombian airspace on March 21 and bombed a border hamlet at La Gabarra, in North Santander province, killing and wounding several people."  The Washington Post reports: "If corroborated by the Colombian government, the bombings would be Venezuela's first military foray into Colombia's civil war."  The FARC began an offensive late last month to retake this region from the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC), according to the Washington Post. "The paramilitary force fights the FARC alongside the Colombian army in much of the country. But here, say refugees and paramilitary commanders who do much of the fighting, they face a new adversary: the Venezuelan military."  And the accounts are overwhelming. "According to accounts from a dozen refugees who have arrived here over the last two weeks to escape a fresh surge of fighting, Venezuelan military aircraft bombed paramilitary positions inside Colombia on March 21 and again a week later to the south in a way that helped a rebel scorched-earth campaign gain momentum across the northeastern frontier," the Washington Post reports.   The Washington Post also provides "Watching War in the Shadow of U.S. Power: Latin America Paying Close Attention to Events in Iraq."  It provides snippets from the war coverage in Latin America. "In Tal Cual, an independent daily in Caracas, columnist Vilma Petrásh dismisses the argument, often made by Chavez supporters, that the U.S.-U.K. invasion was motivated by oil. She argues that Iraqi daily production of 2.8 million barrels of oil a day is comparable to Nigeria or what Venezuela was producing as recently as a year ago, but far behind the big three oil producers, Russia, United States and Saudi Arabia. To return to 1980 levels of production would take three years and $7 billion worth of investment, she says."   While Venezuelans understandably lament the documentary release of "The Revolution will not be Televised," a couple of books on the market provide a succinct view of the Venezuelan reality, much needed after Amy Chua's "Globalization: The World on Fire.". One is "Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism," by Marina Ottaway.  "Despite their growing importance, semi-authoritarian regimes have not received systematic attention. Marina Ottaway examines five countries (Egypt, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, Croatia, and Senegal), which display the distinctive features of semi-authoritarianism and the special challenge each poses to policy makers. She explains why the dominant approach to democracy promotion isn't effective in these countries and concludes by suggesting alternative policies."  While I don't agree that better alternatives exist to democracy, I do believe that democracy doesn't begin and end with elections, as the Venezuelan experience has demonstrated. Democracy also entails an implicit agreement to abide by universal standards of human liberties and a system that promotes a balance between the executive, legislative, and judicial powers, all gone from Venezuela. When a democratically elected president begins to abuse his own people, an international system should exist to castigate the perpetrators, leading them to either institute justice or forgo their position. A nation doesn't only elect a leader, but an orderly political system that works in their interest.  The president is merely the supplier of that system. When the political contract is broken, a nation has a right to demand change.   The New York Times reviews "The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracies at Home and Abroad", by Fareed Zakaria.  Mr. Zakaria provides a cautionary note on elections. His book "is a calm antidote to the fervency of those who want to force elections down the throat of every society, no matter what its particular circumstances and historical experience. As any foreign correspondent knows, there are all kinds and gradations of dictators." The New York Times reports: "Because social and economic conditions in much of the non-Western world now approximate those of Europe between the wars, Mr. Zakaria is able to catalog a vast array of instances in which the electorate's will led to the retrenchment of liberty. In 1994 voters in Belarus overwhelmingly elected the extreme nationalist Aleksandr Lukashenko as their president. The recent crackdown on independent news media by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia was sanctioned by the electorate in opinion polls. In 1998 Venezuelans elected as their president Hugo Chávez, the angry populist and cashiered army colonel who then eviscerated the legislature and the judiciary."  The challenge for the opposition in Venezuela will be, of course, to pressure Chavez to agree to elections, and also to provide one candidate that can beat him. Recent polls show that Chavez would pummel a divided opposition, as much as the opposition may not want to smell the flowers on this one. The other challenge will be to convince the radical elements of Chavistas that they will be included in any new government, so that governability does not become a problem for the new government.   Local News...   *  The government will spend over 23 billion to celebrate the events of April 2002.     *  Vice-President Rangel again accuses Colombia of neglecting the border.   

• President Chavez swore in the Presidential Commission for the Local Council of Public Planning,  which the government said were modeled after the Committees for the Defense of the Cuban Revolution.
• An entity that coordinates electric energy production and transportation between private and public companies warned of an imminent collapse of electricity services in the country.   *  According to the IMF, Venezuela will be the only country in the continent to suffer a contraction in 2003.   *  Venezuela intends to produce over 5 million bpd in five years according to PDVSA´s president.   Opinions

Today, I've provided two opinion pieces. The first is a commentary and stratfor report by former PDVSA director, Pedro M. Burelli.  The Stratfor Report is titled "The Farc, Venezuela and Brazil: Growing Security Concerns in South America."

In "Let's just call it Operation Free Iraqi Oil", The Straits Times reports that among the threats to American supplies: "Venezuela, America's fourth biggest oil supplier, is also unreliable. The Bush administration is not enamoured with the regime of President Hugo Chavez, which has cultivated close political links with Cuba, Libya and even Mr Saddam. And the recent crisis in its oil industry, when production ceased after thousands went on strike to protest Mr Chavez's appointment of cronies in the state-owned oil company, has made America wary and forced it to search for alternative sources."

Events and Announcements

A Memorial Mass remembering the victims of violence in Venezuela will take place on April 11 at 6:00 pm at the Blessed Sacrament Church on 71st street, between Broadway and Columbus Avenue in New York.   The Consulate of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela in New York will show the film "The Revolution will not be Televised."  Then, Consul General Leonor Osorio Granado and Consul Juan Pablo Torres will speak.  The event will take place at the Consulate's Gallery at 7 East 51st St. on Friday, April 11 at 6:00 PM.   For upcoming events, please check www.11abril.com, www.proveo.org, www.amigosny.com and www.veninvestor.com.   I hope you are safe, content, and peaceful, wherever you are,   Alexandra Beech

Research Staff Carlos Penug (international news) Sol Maria Castro (local news) Conchita Fernandez (Research and Translations)

Organización de los Estados Americanos Situación en Venezuela 9 de abril, 2003

El diálogo político entre el gobierno venezolano y la oposición democrática “avanza sustantivamente”, señaló hoy el Embajador de ese país ante la Organización de los Estados Americanos (OEA), Jorge Valero, durante una sesión del Consejo Permanente. Al recordar el golpe de estado del pasado 11 de abril del año 2002 en contra del gobierno del Presidente Hugo Chávez Frías, el Embajador Valero dijo que “gracias a la valentía e hidalguía del pueblo de Venezuela los golpistas fueron derrotados con la reposición en el poder del Presidente legítimo”, en tanto que “la OEA y la comunidad internacional condenaron el golpe y saludaron el restablecimiento de la democracia”.

El diplomático venezolano sostuvo que “el plan de sabotaje en contra de la industria petrolera ocasionó perdidas por el orden de los 7.36 millardos de dólares, cifra equivalente al 33 por ciento del presupuesto nacional”. Sin embargo, “a pesar de los daños económicos y los desafueros políticos cometidos, Venezuela recupera progresivamente su normalidad”, enfatizó.

Tras explicar que la recuperación de la industria petrolera “ha sido acelerada y sorprendente”, el Embajador Valero dijo que la producción de crudos supera actualmente los 3 millones de barriles diarios y las exportaciones han alcanzado 2 millones 800 mil barriles, cumpliéndose con la cuota de la OPEP. “Venezuela avanza hacia una plena reactivación productiva”, puntualizó.

Finalmente destacó que la Carta Democrática Interamericana fue puesta a prueba, por primera vez, con motivo del golpe de estado del 11 de abril del año pasado y agregó que las resoluciones adoptadas por el Consejo Permanente y la Asamblea General de la OEA “confirman el profundo espíritu democrático que prevalece en este foro” y “estimulan al gobierno venezolano a continuar ampliando las fronteras de la democracia”.