<a href=reuters.com>Reuters Mon April 14, 2003 03:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday, weighing up the prospect of a return of Iraqi crude exports to the world market against possible supply curbs by OPEC to avert a potential price crash.

U.S. crude futures for May in New York rose 49 cents to $28.63 a barrel while benchmark Brent crude oil in London rose 25 cents to $25.00.

Oil prices have fallen about 30 percent from pre-war peaks near $40 as U.S. and British forces quickly secured a majority of Iraq's oil infrastructure in the south of the country and traders predicted a fairly swift end to hostilities.

But any resumption of Iraq's vital crude exports will be up to an interim authority in Baghdad in conjunction with the United Nations

Some analysts forecast that diplomatic wrangling will keep Iraqi barrels off the market for months, but a senior U.S. engineer said on Monday that Iraq's giant Kirkuk oilfields could start pumping within weeks.

The northern fields are capable of producing up to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iraq's pre-war production of roughly 2.5 million bpd.

"It's a definite possibility that could be just a few weeks away," said Tom Logsdon, a senior member of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers charged with repairing Iraq's oilfields.

Logsdon said the southern oilfields, where output was up to 2.1 million bpd before the war began on March 20, could be up and running in less than three months.

"Depending how quickly workers come on line, we estimate we will have between 330,000 and 1,000,000 bpd being produced within 12 weeks from now," said Logsdon.

VENEZUELA SUPPORTS OPEC CUT

Iraq's crude could hit world markets just as demand wanes in the second quarter, a seasonal slump between winter demand for heating oil and the peak consumption of gasoline during summer.

Compounding the demand downturn, many commercial airlines have slashed routes due to the spread of the flu-like SARS virus around the globe.

At the same time, supplies from OPEC producers are running almost two million bpd above the group's self-imposed ceiling, to counter supply disruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq.

"The industry is now facing the prospect of too much oil in the months ahead unless OPEC reins in some of its recent output increase," the London-based Center for Global Energy studies said in a report.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is planning an emergency meeting later this month or in early May to discuss tightening compliance to current output quotas or even possible curbs to formal limits.

The International Energy Agency said last week that a big volume of OPEC crude was sitting on the water waiting to hit consumer shores, but warned that it would be imprudent for producers to cut supplies too soon as fuel stockpiles in industrialized nations remain well below normal levels.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said on Friday that South America's biggest oil producer was ready to back any proposed OPEC supply cut to support prices in the group's target band of $22 to $28 a barrel for OPEC's reference basket of seven crudes.

OPEC's basket price stood at $25.40 on Thursday, compared with a monthly average of $31.54 in February.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 14, 2003 By: Oscar Heck

VHeadline commentarist Oscar Heck writes: True democracy no longer exists.

Now, the USA is thinking of invading Syria … and bring them “democracy.”

Will they invade Venezuela … and bring “democracy”?

According to Jim Krane, from the Associated Press, a USA-based information buyer/seller called ChoicePoint Inc., is collecting and selling personal information from people in Central America and South America, including Venezuela. This information is being sold to some three-dozen US government agencies, without the consent or knowledge of the people.

Democracy?

Krane states: “ChoicePoint says it buys the files from subcontractors in Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua. But it refuses to name the sellers or say where those parties obtained the data.“

and:

“If ChoicePoint can sell foreigners' details to Washington, it is also in the position to sell data on US citizens to foreign governments. It won't, for policy reasons. We don't think it's the right thing to do, so we're not doing it.”

Democracy?

Krane goes on to say: “In Colombia, ChoicePoint buys the entire country's citizen ID database, including each resident's date and place of birth, passport and national ID number, parentage and physical description”. (31 million Colombians)

What would Colombians say if they knew this? What would Venezuelans say if they knew that their private information is being sold to the US government?

Is this what the opposition wants as a “democracy”?

• A “democracy” that allows for unleashed purchase and re-sale of other people’s privacy? A “democracy” with double-standards?

Meanwhile, the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference (Bishops?), are criticizing the present Venezuelan government … claiming that the rule of law and political coexistence has been damaged by the struggle centering on the government's legitimacy and institutionality … "Polarization has paralyzed the country sinking us into growing poverty and an increase in division and social violence …violations of the right to life, citizen security and property have become so apparent that everyone can see them as they develop.”

Do these bishops (?) have short memories? (about poverty in Venezuela).

Maybe they never went to the slums in the 1970s? In general, the slums of today, have water, sewage systems and electricity (25 years ago, most didn’t). The homes in today’s slums are mostly made of red brick (25 years ago they were mostly made of cardboard and sheet metal). The slum area I usually live in has daily garbage collection! (25 years ago, there was no garbage collection ú and where I am in Canada at the moment, we have garbage collection once weekly).

In the 1970s, about 80% of the population was under the poverty line. (You can get statistics from the US government State Department) Today, the figure is about the same. Even if the per-capita income has decreased, the drop has not affected the 80%. The people that have been affected are the middle to upper-middle classes. Of course the poverty (?) level has increased amongst these classes! (They can no longer afford to take vacations to Disney World!).

In addition, these bishops (?) mention that citizen and property security (lack of) are evident. Yes, they are correct when speaking about the middle classes. Personal and property security in the slums is today no different than in the past. In fact, I find certain slum areas to be safer than ever.

Why do I bring this up?

Because 80% of the Venezuelan population live in slum-like conditions or worse. Therefore, when the bishops (?) make their statements, they are addressing a problem that in affecting the minority of the people, not the majority! They are manipulating opinions in favor of the minority classes that have always abused the 80%. (Typical!) In addition, there has always existed a class difference. What has changed is that a good portion of the 80% will no longer sheepishly accept to be squashed by the 20% … and rightly so!

Democracy?

Is this what “all” Venezuelans want … a “democracy” (such as the one implied by these bishops(?)) … that neglects and ignores a clear and real class difference, as if it did not exist?

In other words, a “democracy” that would continue to allow the 20% to abuse of the 80% and where the 80% continues to smile sheepishly and says “yes sir, yes sir”, like the American slaves did in the USA!

Democracy?

• A “democracy” where opinion and event manipulation is propagated as fact?

I do not want to be insensitive here, but I feel that I must mention the following:

Kayla Markert, in a letter to VHeadline.com, writes about the assassination of her friend’s father.  S/he states, “…Gustavo recognized he was being taken to a place where those who oppose President Chavez are murdered, so he fought back…”

I read and re-read her letter and I am still not clear as to the “facts.”

Did Gustavo have a gun? How was he able to have a shoot-out with the kidnappers? Why was this person kidnapped? By whom? Was she there? Was her friend there (the son)? Did the kidnappers say, “ We are taking you away to kill you because you are against Chavez?” I bring up these points because what Kayla says is typical of opposition rhetoric … assumptions and manipulations that are transmitted as facts! She certainly forgets to mention that rich Venezuelans are sometimes kidnapping targets, and have been for years. She forgets to mention that many deaths in Venezuela are due to “resisting muggings or kidnappings!”

A few weeks ago another government person got kidnapped (along with a businessman) and their car was hijacked. They were taken away to the mountain. They did not resist, and lived to tell the story (a factual one). I encountered a person in Merida who was kidnapped at 7 a.m. on a Sunday in January 2003. He was also taken up to the mountain (at gun point), he was dropped off there, and the thieves left with his brand new Jeep. He did not resist, and came away only with injured pride (as he has just bought the Jeep).

The above are examples of the kind of manipulation that occurs on a daily and regular basis at: Globovision, Venevision, RCTV and TeleVen … the four privately-owned Venezuelan television stations that are in full support of the supposed “democratic” opposition!

If they (the opposition) are “democratic,” then what are the pro-Chavez people?

What are the anti-opposition people such as myself?

True democracy no longer exists.

Oscar Heck oscar@vheadline.com

Note: Choice Point’s home page contains the following statements:

1. Choice Point has assisted in the recovery of 777 missing children
2. Choice Point honors the brave men and women of the coalition armed forces

How many children were murdered and/or injured in Iraq due to the USA “democratic” invasion?

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Our editorial statement reads: VHeadline.com Venezuela is a wholly independent e-publication promoting democracy in its fullest expression and the inalienable  right of all Venezuelans to self-determination and the pursuit of sovereign independence without interference. We seek to shed light on nefarious practices and the corruption which for decades has strangled this South American nation's development and progress. Our declared editorial bias is pro-democracy and pro-Venezuela ... which some may wrongly interpret as anti-American. --  Roy S. Carson, Editor/Publisher  Editor@VHeadline.com  

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 14, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

British journalist, Richard Gott was called on to read out the conclusions of the " Solidarity with the Bolivarian Revolution" conference, highlighting the fact that the " unity of the Latin American peoples and the full exercise of their autonomy are part of the bases of a new multi-polar global order." 

Conference participants, Gott said, believe that President Hugo Chavez Frias and his political project is an alternative model to neoliberal globalization and Yankee imperialism. 

A practical conclusion was agreed upon, namely to help create solidarity networks to defend Venezuela and at the same time,  promote resistance against the onslaught of globalization and temptations of US Imperialism. 

Recognizing the existence of an opposition in Venezuela, the conference concludes that its " political practices smack of fascism, racism and anti-patriotism."

At a press conference with alternative media, President Chavez Frias countered criticism from aporrea.org and other popular organizations about the "elite character" of the conference dominated by intellectuals (mostly foreign) and forgetting the people who came out to risk all last year, arguing that international solidarity is indispensable for the survival of the Process but agreed that a parallel act was in order.

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<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Monday, April 14, 2003 By: Gustavo Coronel

VHeadline.com commentarist Gustavo Coronel writes: For four days some 800 foreign and 1500 local revolutionaries met at the Teresa Carreno Theater and Parque Central in Caracas to celebrate the first year of Chavez' return to power, after being eased out by the current Interior Minister, General Lucas Rincon, in a very strange Palace coup.

This grotesque meeting would have been just a laughable extravagance if it had not been for the fact that the government also celebrated the killing of innocent Venezuelans at the hands of Chavez' followers. Part of the celebration included setting these killers free, leaving no doubt, among the relatives of the victims, that these crimes would never be punished by this government.

The event was very irritating for the millions of decent Venezuelans who saw it from a safe moral distance. The 800 foreign guests were a varied menagerie. There were some notorious visitors, like Ignacio Ramonet, the high priest of neofascism; Professor Jaime Petras; Daniel Ortega, the former President of Nicaragua and indicted rapist; the odd looking and un-maternal mother of the Plaza de Mayo, Hebe Bonafini; a British film maker named Alex Cox who seemed to be completely lost in that environment; a 10-year-old Cuban girl already full of hate at such an early stage of life. However, most of the cast was made up of unknown extras, all very happy to be there, all expenses paid by the financially bankrupt Venezuelan government.

There were Ecuadorian military, Araucano indians, ultra-leftist editors, a true "who is who" of international vagrancy.

The event merits a few comments:

1. I wonder if the $25 million which the government shelled out for the event could not have been better utilized to do something about the 250000 plus street children of Venezuela. Just outside the place of the event the visitors could not fail to see the miserable Amacuro Indian women begging for a few coins, or the street children sleeping in the sidewalks, or the buhoneros trying to sell anything from condoms to cigarettes to porno movies to bring some food home. To spend $25 million to finance the intellectual diarrhea that took place in Caracas, seems to be clearly immoral, when compared to the social degradation existing in Caracas and the rest of the country, due to the lack of sensibility of our verbose President.

I would have developed some respect for this government if they had decided to dedicate the $25 million to do something about the starving Venezuelan population, rather than spending it in this fascist bash.

2. Although the stated purpose of the event was the celebration of the first anniversary of the so called counter-coup, the main purpose became clear from day one: a bashing of the US. During the three days of the event, Bush was frequently compared to Hitler and all speakers made a point of condemning the War in Iraq, not so much because they were concerned about the people of that country but because one of their ideological icons, Saddam Hussein, had been expelled from power. The event had the misfortune to be held after the war was practically over and the people of Iraq could be seen in the streets showing their relief at getting rid of a monster who lived in abundance while his people suffered horrible poverty.

3. We heard very sad things for democratic ears. Daniel Ortega, accused of rape by a member of his own family, came to say that Chavez represented the hope of Latin America. Hebe Bonafini said that she had been happy at the tragedy of September 11 because the towers included "powerful people" plotting against the poor. Jaime Petras at least showed flashes of intellectual honesty, when he defined Chavez Law regulating Media Content as "protofascist." Alan Cox said that he did not know much about Venezuela but he assumed all leftists were with Chavez (the opposite is true). The pathetic Cuban girl sounded like a programmed robot, talking against US imperialism and other cliches.

Even more damaging for Venezuela, this event put the government of Hugo Chavez in a clear collision course with the government of the US.

Chavez brought to Caracas, all expenses paid, the most violent anti US fauna of the Americas. For a country like the US, which has already shown a short fuse when dealing with perceived enemies, this can easily be interpreted as a conscious and no longer harmless effort on the part of Hugo Chavez to antagonize them.

When combined with the obvious support Chavez has shown to the Colombian terrorist guerrillas and with his incontinent verbal abuses against the country which is our main client and our traditional political ally, it is easy to see that Chavez has now been included in the US list of undesirable characters.

• When Ramonet spoke about Venezuela being a future target for US military action, he was probably starting on the road of the self-fulfilling prophecies.

The reason for this challenging attitude on the part of Chavez is obvious. I have said before and now say again that the only road left open to Chavez is martyrdom. He is incompetent as a President and he does not know how to govern. He is incapable of solving our problems. The only way an inept politician can find a place in history is by becoming a martyr.

I suggest there is a much less traumatic way for Mr. Chavez: Please resign and make us happy so that we can have, at least, a kind memory of you...

Gustavo Coronel is the founder and president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida (The Pro-Quality of Life Alliance), a Caracas-based organization devoted to fighting corruption and the promotion of civic education in Latin America, primarily Venezuela. A member of the first board of directors (1975-1979) of Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), following nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, Coronel has worked in the oil industry for 28 years in the United States, Holland, Indonesia, Algiers and in Venezuela. He is a Distinguished alumnus of the University of Tulsa (USA) where he was a Trustee from 1987 to 1999. Coronel led the Hydrocarbons Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) in Washington DC for 5 years. The author of three books and many articles on Venezuela ("Curbing Corruption in Venezuela." Journal of Democracy, Vol. 7, No. 3, July, 1996, pp. 157-163), he is a fellow of Harvard University and a member of the Harvard faculty from 1981 to 1983.  In 1998, he was presidential election campaign manager for Henrique Salas Romer and now lives in retirement on the Caribbean island of Margarita where he runs a leading Hotel-Resort.  You may contact Gustavo Coronel at email gustavo@vheadline.com

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Summary

The reconstruction of Iraq will be a long and, for some companies, highly profitable venture. The country initially will be led by a U.S-controlled government that likely will dole out the choicest contracts to American companies, with plenty of subcontract opportunities for coalition partners.

Analysis

The reconstruction of Iraq will be an extensive and, for some companies, lucrative undertaking -- giving companies from coalition countries an extensive footprint in one of the most resource-rich countries in the region. Assuming that the Baath party regime is ousted in Iraq, Washington plans to install an interim administration -- giving the U.S. administration complete control of decision-making within the country for a time.

As a result, the U.S. Department of Defense and Agency for International Development likely will dole out the bulk of reconstruction contracts to U.S. companies.

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