May 26, 2003 By <a href=www.busrep.co.za>IOL Business Report-Reuters

Caracas - Venezuela's economy had plummeted 29 percent in the first quarter, squeezed by an anti-government strike and tight exchange controls, the Central Bank of Venezuela said on Friday.

Analysts said it was the worst economic collapse ever recorded in Venezuela, the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter, and probably the steepest quarterly contraction seen in Latin America.

"It's unprecedented and reflects a destroyed economy," said independent economist Alexander Guerrero.

The central bank said Venezuela's strategic oil sector, which accounts for half of government revenues, shrank by 46.7 percent in the first quarter while the non-oil sector contracted 20.9 percent.

In December and January President Hugo Chavez toughed out a general strike aimed at forcing him out of office.

Crippling work stoppages temporarily slashed oil output by state oil firm PDVSA, choking off government revenues and triggering heavy capital flight.

This forced the government to impose foreign exchange controls, reducing imports and exports.

"Firstly, it was the effect of the PDVSA strike and secondly, the impact of the exchange controls," said Jose Cerritelli, an economist with Bear Stearns in New York.

He noted, however, that the government had since managed to restore strategic oil production.

The first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) shrinkage followed a record decline of 16.7 percent in the last quarter of 2002. In the whole of last year, when Venezuela was rocked by months of political turmoil culminating in a short-lived failed coup against Chavez, GDP fell nearly 9 percent .

In its quarterly report, the central bank said the capital portion of the balance of payments registered a deficit of $1.5 billion in the first quarter against a $2.4 billion deficit a year ago.

The current account surplus stood at $1.9 billion compared with a $209 million surplus last year.

Although expected, the GDP collapse is a blow for Chavez, who since his election in late 1998 has struggled to implement his self-styled revolution, an antipoverty programme based on government spending and a bigger role for the state in the economy.

His foes, who include business leaders and dissident military officers, accuse him of squandering the nation's oil riches and trying to implant Cuban-style communism.

Analysts said the crucial oil production recovery could slow the economic nose dive.

The International Monetary Fund has predicted Venezuela's economy would shrink 17 percent in 2003. Finance minister Tobias Nobrega sees a decline similar to last year of around 9 percent.

Importers and exporters say the state's painfully slow allocation of dollars is strangling business activity, disrupting manufacturing and creating shortages.

Nobrega said on Thursday the government would correct faults in the currency regime.

The central bank report said the worst-hit sector in the first quarter was construction, which fell 64 percent. Manufacturing shrank 35.1 percent. - Reuters

mid-day.com By: Amriteshwar Mathur May 26, 2003

For US pharmaceutical companies this may be a bitter pill to swallow. Indian pharmaceutical companies are giving US multinationals, who dominated global research, a run for their own money.

Indian pharma companies are spreading their wings both in USA and in Latin America. And surprisingly it is the quality of the Indian drugs that is appealing to consumers globally.

During the last five years, the share of Indian applications to United States Food and Drugs Administration (USFDA) for selling bulk actives has risen from 1.8 per cent to 6.2 per cent of all such applications received by the drug regulator. Quality is high and some Indian products have found a place in the WHO lists of essential drugs.

Says Shahina Mukadam, pharma analyst, Motilal Oswal Securities, “with its numerous FDA filings companies like Indian companies have demonstrated their ability to successfully contest and win against giants like Glaxo Plc which is essential to survive in US markets.”

Even in Latin America, Indian pharma exports have climbed to $1400 million in 2002-03 from $980 million in 2001-02. But it is the $16 billion Latin American domestic market,  that Indian pharmaceutical companies are targeting through joint ventures and by setting up manufacturing bases.

The rush has started. Alembic Ltd. is planning to join hands with certain US based formulators to expand its bulks drugs business. As a first step in this direction, Alembic has filed four drug master files with the USFDA with more applications for the next two-three years.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals has set up a wholly owned subsidiary Glenmark Pharmaceuticals USA, Inc, based in Princeton, New Jersey, to make further inroad into the US market. Dr Reddy`s Laboratories has filed an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) with the USFDA for ondansetron hydrochloride tablets and for fexofenadine HC1 tablets.

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd., which is ranked eight in the US market has received a tentative approval from the USFDA to make and sell a variety of drugs.

Says Dipak Chattaraj, president Ranbaxy Pharmaceuticals Incorporation (USA), “this further helps strengthens our expanding product portfolio and our commitment to bring generic alternatives into the US healthcare system. The approval is yet another testimony to our strong intellectual and regulatory expertise.”

Even in Latin American companies like Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy’s, Aurobindo Pharma and Hetero Drugs have set up plants in countries like Venezuela, Chile and Brazil.

The reason  Latin Americans perceive Indian drugs as better in quality compared to Chinese drugs, and so they are looking for supply tie-ups with Indian firms.

Monica Perin Houston Business Journal

The terrorist bombings in Saudi Arabia and Morocco that killed 70 people in the past two weeks have upped the ante for U.S. companies that operate in high-risk countries.

And federal officials warn that more such attacks against U.S. interests are highly likely in the near future, which prompted the Bush administration to raise the color-coded threat level to orange, or "high," earlier this week.

Security specialists in the private sector are advising clients who operate in such places to upgrade their emergency preparedness plans.

"They need to assess their physical security and counter-terrorism mechanisms and beef them up," says Jim Francis of Kroll International, a global security firm based in New York.

But oil industry and security experts in Houston doubt that even these latest events will cause major changes in business operations in the oil patch.

"Companies will incur security premiums, but these concerns have been baked in the cake since 9/11," says Greg Barnes, managing partner in the Houston office of Korn Ferry International executive recruiting firm.

"Definitely it's going to get harder to recruit" people to take assignments in places like Saudi Arabia, says Ralph Stevens of Houston-based Preng & Associates, a global energy search firm.

"I would guess that taking family there will be less likely than before, and that only essential personnel will be there," says Stevens.

John Griffin, who heads the Houston-based upstream and oilfields services practice of Korn Ferry, predicts three things will happen:

• Companies will expand their expatriate base to other groups of less targeted people, such as Asians or other foreign nationals, and decrease recruiting of Westerners.
• People who are close to their goals of making a certain amount of money, retiring and getting another job will stay in Saudi Arabia but send their families home.
• Companies will pay more and heighten security to get people to stay there or go there.

"At the end of the day, it will be a matter of money, whether in direct salaries or increased security," Griffin says.

Premium pay

Oil companies have traditionally paid premiums to employees working in difficult or inconvenient places. Executives who have been paid $200,000 to $350,000 a year might now get additional premiums of as much as 75 percent to work there.

But a proposed change in tax laws could offset increases in compensation.

David Preng, president of Preng & Associates, says many expatriates are concerned about a Bush administration proposal to remove the current tax exemption on the first $80,000 earned abroad.

"This, coupled with security concerns, may cause some people to re-evaluate their current posting or alter their current thinking about accepting an overseas posting," Preng says.

His colleague Stevens expresses doubts that companies will try to "throw money" at the problem.

"All the money in the world can't buy your life, "Stevens says. "People will either be willing to do it, or not willing -- premiums aside."

In the past, he says, security wasn't an overriding issue for his clients who did business in Saudi Arabia, although the perceived risk level would vary by company from mid-level to high.

Now, he says, "it'll jump all the way to the top."

Although oil industry companies are tight-lipped about what measures they are taking as a result of the Saudi bombings, Stevens says he knows some people have been taken out and sent to England.

Locally, Baker Hughes Inc., Schlumberger and Shell Oil Co. declined to comment. Exxon Mobil, BP and ChevronTexaco also have remained mum in response to media queries.

A U.S. spokesman for the American Business Council of the Gulf Countries told the Associated Press that he has not heard of any foreign companies planning to "pull the plug" on operations in that region.

And a Philadelphia-based firm that manages travel for companies told AP there has been a spike in departures from Saudi Arabia by family members of Western executives, but not a lot of employees have left.

The U.S. Bureau of Consular Affairs estimates that about 150,000 Americans live in the Middle East.

Other hot spots

In recent months Shell and ChevronTexaco have evacuated employees from Nigeria, while other companies have followed suit in Venezuela and Indonesia because of local uprisings. Companies such as Schlumberger evacuated employees from Kuwait before the start of the Iraq war, but they have since returned.

Houston security expert Kevin Swailes, president of Swailes & Associates, points out that kidnappings and terrorist attacks have been going on for years in counties such as Colombia, Nigeria, the Ivory Coast and elsewhere.

"Companies that operate in these environments understand the risks and they are very proactive," Swailes says. "They have to be out in front of it."

Companies active in Saudi Arabia will be "reassessing what they have in place, the nature of their business operations in-country, and whether they still feel comfortable with those protocols after the recent acts," he says.

In the long run, he says, organizations that are better-equipped for handling the risk will stay put.

"You won't see a huge shift," Swailes says.

mperin@bizjournals.com • 713-960-5910

NO se les ha pagado su liquidación.

Todo el mundo debe saber LA VERDAD!!          

La firma del acuerdo entre la “oposición” y el régimen CASTRO-COMUNISTA de los señores Chávez y Castro llevada a cabo ayer jueves 29 de mayo (de 2003), tuvo para mí una importancia extraordinaria pues con ella terminé de comprender total y absolutamente el drama de mi madre patria, Cuba; además, ha complementado la explicación que vengo dándole a muchos personajes de la comunicación social en Venezuela sobre los motivos por el cual se produjo el triste y dramático destierro cubano donde millones de seres humanos se lanzaron al mundo en busca de oxígeno de libertad, dejando atrás el terruño, la familia, los amigos de toda una vida, nuestras raícesy  pertenencias.

Ayer vimos al grueso del liderazgo nacional venezolano apoyando la firma de un garabato histórico que tiene menor consistencia física y material que las bombas de gases lacrimógenos que nos lanza este régimen autoritario y de oprobio en cada una de nuestras manifestaciones pacíficas y constitucionales.  Vimos la representación de ese liderazgo opositor sentarse en una mesa para firmar un documento que ellos – sin excepción -- sabían tendrá el valor de un pedazo de papel higiénico… y sin embargo, ahí estaban todos.  Uno de ellos, despojado totalmente de su dignidad, se persignó en desesperanza antes de estampar su histórica firma sobre la burla de un pueblo que esperaba de sus “negociadores” alguito mejor luego de seis meses de “ardua labor” y a un costo de sabrá-Dios-cuántos-millones.

Si todo esto sucedió en el Siglo XXI, en un mundo globalizado y en un país saturado de medios de comunicación social adversos al régimen, con una libertad de expresión casi absoluta, donde la Internet existe como un medio de divulgación y de presión extraordinario… y en el ámbito de una campaña publicitaria de alerta jamás desarrollada en Venezuela, ¿qué podíamos esperar los cubanos en una Cuba disminuida por la dictadura y la corrupción, ante un líder de tanto poder carismático como Castro, donde la comunicación estaba en pañales, el control absoluto se hacía sentir desde el primer día en que bajaron los barbudos de la sierra y se fusilaba un “contrarrevolucionario” en cada esquina y a cada minuto?

Si el liderazgo de una sociedad políticamente madura como la venezolana, acostumbrada a más de cuatro décadas de continua democracia, no tuvo la entereza moral y política para erguirse dignamente ante lo que todos sabemos nos espera, ¿qué se podía esperar en una Cuba recién emancipada de España que arrastraba un pesado bagaje dictatorial, embochinchada por sus insaciables dirigentes y que acababa de salir de un escenario de enfrentamiento armado muy similar a una guerra civil?

No hay que engañarse.  En ambos países sus líderes democráticos no estuvieron a la altura de las circunstancias, de las realidades políticas y de la historia misma.  Todavía peor, en Cuba, los medios de comunicación social – en gran medida y salvo dignas excepciones -- se entregaron en su mayoría a la “conchupancia revolucionaria”; no así en Venezuela, donde emergieron como una quinta columna de oposición.  Al final de este “alerta”, incluyo la tan tristemente famosa nota suicida de Miguel Ángel Quevedo, editor y fundador de la revista Bohemia en Cuba… un documento que debemos llevar todos presente mientras tengamos un hilo de esperanza al cual aferrarnos y por el cual dar, incluso, la vida.

En Cuba, cuando nos vinimos a dar plena cuenta de la necesidad de enfrentar al régimen por la vía radical, se había hecho demasiado tarde.  No obstante, tenemos 44 años poniendo los muertos, los presos políticos y la división de la familia.  Faltaría ver si en Venezuela nos daremos cuenta a tiempo, para – entre otras cosas – ahorrarnos la atroz desgracia de Cuba.

El cubano puso parte de su fe en los “americanos” y la cercanía con el país más democrático del planeta.  Los venezolanos se engatusan pensando que la ayuda vendrá de la llamada “comunidad internacional”.  Esta última se limpió sus manos y nos dejó ayer la “papa caliente” en su momento más álgido.   Ya lo dijo CLÁRAMENTE el embajador “americano”, Shapiro, al salir del bochornoso, denigrante y desesperanzador acto de ayer: “… la salida de la crisis política depende de ustedes, los venezolanos…” (sic), qué más queremos, ¿qué lo repita ante un notario?

En Cuba no había ejército (imparcial o no) que nos defendiera del totalitarismo y en Venezuela el que existe está minusválido y achicopalado ante un Comandante-en-Jefe avasallador que lo apabulla, lo divide, lo corrompe y controla al máximo; pero Castro engañó al pueblo cubano, al contrario de Chávez quien desde que tuvo la primera oportunidad de hacer sentir su verbo nos dejó claro su eterno y maléfico sueño de poner a navegar a Venezuela en el mismo “mar de felicidad” en el cual ha venido navegando Cuba desde que el comunismo y la más oscura noche cargada de pesadillas se adueñó de ella.

A Castro lo ayudó la guerra fría y su adhesión al bloque soviético.  Chávez pudiera contar con una alianza todavía más sólida y duradera: la sociedad con el mundo libre occidental mediante la entrega en concesión de los recursos energéticos de Venezuela, lo que lo atornillaría en el poder hasta el 2021 y más allá… ¡muchísimo más allá!

Estamos viviendo los acontecimientos que forjarán la historia contemporánea de Venezuela.  Somos hoy testigos de excepción y no debemos olvidar los eventos que nos precipitan al mayor desastre que este país haya conocido e imaginado jamás.  Estamos chapeando con nuestras acciones Y OMISIONES el camino hacia el control total de todo y de todos por parte de este régimen CASTRO-COMUNISTA.  Lo único que nos queda ahora es determinar -- lo más pronto posible – en cuál momento el oficialismo incumplirá el acuerdo.  Todavía no se había terminado de firmar la ofensa histórica cuando ya arremetía fuertemente contra GLOBOVISIÓN, el mayor medio informativo audiovisual del país… un botón como muestra de lo que nos espera de hoy en adelante.  Tendríamos, además, que ir pensando qué haremos TODOS cuando demos por violado el histórico acuerdo… y quién convocará “LA GUARIMBA”.

Bien lo decía mi sabio abuelo, Don Alonso: “Cada pueblo se labra su propio destino…”

Caracas, 30 de mayo de 2003

ROBERT ALONSO robertalonso2003@cantv.net Envíen sus comentarios – UNICAMENTE – a robertalonso2003@cantv.net pues otros buzones colapsan con la cantidad de correo que reciben.  Se envía por e-mail, el mismo escrito vía “anexo” en caso de fallas técnicas. SOLAMENTE RESPONDEREMOS CORRESPONDENCIA ENVIADA A NUESTRO SERVIDOR DE CANTV

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