Adamant: Hardest metal
Friday, May 23, 2003

Providing for Default Service in Retail Natural Gas and Electricity Markets

<a href=www.energypulse.net>Energy pulse 5.14.03   Ronald Sutherland, Consulting Economist and Adjunct Professor of Law, George Mason University, School of Law

A crucial issue facing states that are in process of deregulating retail markets for electricity and natural gas is how to provide default service to customers who may be abandoned by suppliers, or who otherwise may be unable to obtain service. The approaches to this issue involve light handed regulation and reliance on market forces, and heavy handed regulation that ignores market incentives. The former approach is certainly preferable, but many states appear to apply the latter approach. The light handed approach involves developing a competitive market with incentives to service to all customers. The heavy handed regulatory approach involves promulgating regulations that encourage suppliers to exit the market, and then additional regulations that require a provider of last resort (POLR). Understandably, states that follow the regulatory approach find it particularly challenging. The website material from the Texas Public Service Commission indicates the substantial effort required to establish a POLR.

This article explains that the key to providing default service is a robust wholesale market with transparent and floating prices. The best way to provide for default service is to develop a competitive market where providers have an incentive to serve customers. Competitive retail markets require a wholesale market with price adjustments that equate supply and demand. Given a robust wholesale market with floating prices, commodity will be available at a price and there is unlikely to be a need for default service. However, utility commissioners and state legislators will require the security of a designated POLR. Establishing such a POLR should be relatively simple, when such services are unlikely to be required and are easily met by spot transactions.

Default service has two commonly accepted definitions. In the transition to a competitive market, some customers choose to remain with their current service provider, instead of choosing an alternative provider. In this use of the term, the current service provider is the default choice. Default service is also viewed as a backup service provided to customers who are abandoned or refused service. In this definition, a default service provider is a provider of last resort (POLR).

In regulated electricity and gas markets, the utility has an obligation to serve customers. In competitive markets, customers are ensured service by having a choice between numerous service providers. In the transition from regulation to competition, there may be no obligation to serve, nor a well developed market that ensures service. The uncertainties of this transition, plus the need to serve all customers, apparently require a provider of last resort. This argument, although advanced frequently, is actually quite weak because several markets are deregulated without the need for a POLR.

If state legislators and utility commissioners are to deregulate these markets, they must have assurances against failures in the form of abandoned customers. The need to obtain support from these public officials requires some light handed regulation that ensures a POLR, in addition to reliance on market forces.

In some states, marketers have exited the retail market, raising the serious issue of ensuring service to their former customers. The most frequent need for a POLR results from a regulatory distortion, such as a price cap, that discourages marketers and utilities from serving customers. Given that default customers arise from a regulatory failure, the heavy handed regulatory approach imposes even more regulations in an effort to reverse the effects of the initial regulatory change.

States have adopted different approaches to providing for default service. States that allow the local utilities to retain their merchant function typically require the utility to be the provider of last resort. In states where the utility exits the merchant function, an alternative provider becomes the POLR. The risk of abandoned customers appears greatest where the local utility exits the market, however the risk is actually greatest where regulatory failures encourage suppliers to exit the market and leave customers without service.

The key to ensuring service to all customers is a robust wholesale market with continuously adjusting prices. Such prices are referred to as floating prices, real time prices, and current spot prices. Continuously adjusting wholesale prices bring supply and demand into balance. The critical feature of floating prices is its assurance of supply at a price, as opposed to supply rationing. In such a robust wholesale market, a merchant can purchase gas or electricity at spot and provide retail service to customers at spot plus a service charge. In such a market, suppliers have every incentive to provide service and customers are unlikely to be abandoned. If marketers leave the market, customers can readily obtain service from another service provider. When a market has incentives to serve customers, POLR service is unlikely to be required. Designating an official POLR is relatively simple under these conditions.

Some gas and electricity markets have long-term fixed-price contracts in the wholesale market, and price caps in the retail market, or other supply constraints that discourage reliable supply. With these regulatory failures, customers are abandoned, and such customers may be unable to find an alternative supplier at a current market price. These conditions require a provider of last resort (POLR). However, the POLR task now becomes complicated because the POLR may have difficulty in obtaining the commodity in a supply constrained market. For instance, most states that are deregulating their gas and electricity markets are imposing price caps as part of a standard offer service. When wholesale fuel prices increase and price caps become binding, there is both an increasing need for POLR service, and a difficulty in providing it. Heavy handed regulation is an apparent necessity when previous regulatory failures contribute to customers being abandoned. The preferable solution is not new regulations for POLR service, but allowing efficient wholesale to provide reliable retail service.

Providing the best value to customers requires the development of a wholesale market that reveals floating prices. Providing service for abandon customers is almost trivial when such customers can readily obtain service on their own. Service providers – the utility or marketers – will readily provide service if they can buy at spot and sell at spot plus a service charge. Providing for service for abandon customers is a serious challenge only when regulatory failures preclude service providers from obtaining the commodity in the wholesale market.

Empirical evidence confirms the critical nature of the wholesale market with floating prices. Imagine an energy market with a small number of suppliers where one or more supplier may leave the market abruptly. Suppose further a robust wholesale market characterized by floating prices. At issue is how to ensure reliable service to those customers who may be abandoned by their service provider. Given these assumptions, including a robust wholesale market, the answer is that no special provision is required for default service.

World oil markets are characterized by a small number of influential suppliers, termed OPEC, and in early 2003 there was serious concern over supply disruptions. The threat came from Iraq, other regional suppliers, and from Venezuela, which was experiencing different issues. There was no concern for a POLR; I do not recall the issue even being raised. If large producers exited the market, the world oil price would increase to again equate supply and demand. There is no need for a POLR, because a robust wholesale market ensures that commodity will be available at a market clearing price.

If marketers or other suppliers of electricity and natural gas abruptly exit the retail market, will customers immediately be able to obtain service, in the absence of a POLR? If the wholesale market is robust with floating prices, all customers should be able to obtain service at these floating prices. However, if the wholesale market does not have market clearing prices, and is instead characterized by shortages, customers could also experience shortages and lack of service provider. States that are encouraging retail competition can ensure service reliability by encouraging the development of a well functioning wholesale market, where designating a POLR is not a regulatory challenge.

Phone: 703-323-5815

Do you agree or disagree with this article? If you disagree, send in a rebuttal piece.

Readers Comments

Bill Mueller 5.14.03 Dr. Sutherland describes many of the aspects of a functioning market. The description can apply very well to large consumers: businesses and industrials. The large customers have enough at stake to actually pay attention to the problem of getting the best price. They can afford the five or ten (or more) hours a year required to manage the problem.

Small consumers aren't very active because it is too expensive to care. If they get involved with their electric purchases, they will save perhaps $50 per year (assuming they save a full cent per kWh and use 500 kWhs per month). So a good market system needs to give them a choice that provides $5 per month. Anything less than that isn't worth the time and mental energy to learn about and decide.

Keep in mind that almost half of all consumers use less than 500 kWhs per month. They’ll never save enough to take on the decision hassle of choosing hassle. If you’ve ever tried to correct a billing error by phone – one incident can offset any small monthly savings.

And keep in mind that most alternative prices don't provide a full cent of price choice. The electricity markets have very thin margins, on the order of 1/3rd of a cent. Suppliers exit the market because the margins are thin – there’s not a lot of money in the business. The commodity is undifferentiated, after all if the products were differentiated, the market would be less efficient. The price pressures results from a short term market structure, marginal pricing, and long-term investments and mortgages to be paid. It’s unlikely that the markets will ever be inefficient enough to support price differentials over 1 cent per kWh, large enough to provide consumers enough value to worry about choosing suppliers.

And even $5 per month is "below the radar screen" of many consumers. (Have you saved your $5 by installing compact fluorescents?)

Our dilemma is that the political definition of a successful deregulation tacitly involves the active participation of many consumers, especially voters. It is unlikely that any deregulated market will ever have enough consumer participation to eliminate “heavy-handed” regulation. It is unlikely that there will ever be enough participants to fund an active market of many suppliers competing for business of active consumers who revisit their electricity choice annually.

Bill Mueller Principal Number Four Associates Cambridge, MA

Negotiators hold 1st post-Group of Friends meeting to hammer out future arrangements

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Government and opposition negotiators have met again with members of the international tripartite committee (United Nations, Carter Center and Organization of American States)  to discuss the future of negotiations and the possibility of signing an agreement. 

  • The meeting, which took place at the plush Caracas Tamanaco Hotel, comes after the six-nation Group of Friends urged both sides to reach an agreement. 

Government adviser, Omar Mezza  claims that the Group of Friends took away a clear perception that further discussions should take place within the framework of the National Assembly (AN) and political parties. 

However, political observers say there is confusion about the government's intentions because Executive Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel had said the government will be ready to sign an agreement but not the one that the opposition waved around, which was a draft agreement to be discussed by allies on each side. 

In fact, the government returned from an internal debate with a counter-proposal that the opposition has so far preferred to ignore. Mezza did not refer to the government's proposal but rather repeated that the government policy is to undertake dialog. It is understood that OAS general secretary, Cesar Gaviria, who considers his work has concluded, will return to Caracas on Thursday to check progress or the lack of it. 

In the meantime, OAS Cabinet chief, Fernando Jaramillo is staying on in Caracas along with representatives of the Carter center and UN to monitor the development of dialog and agreement.

Special jungle troops to mount mobile border patrols in 4 States

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, May 13, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

6 battalions of Cazadores (Hunters) will be dispatched to border badlands with Colombia to boost Army Operations Theaters.  

  • A first contingent of 600 of 1,000  soldiers is expected to arrive in target areas within 15 days. 

The Cazadores were formed to fight Venezuelan Communist insurgents in the 60-70s and have been stationed in eastern Venezuela (Maturin, Cumana y Cocollar) where most of the guerrillas had set up camp and campaign. 

The new contingent will be placed under the orders of  TO-1 commander, Brigadier General William Warrick Blanco in La Fria (Tachira) and TO-2 commander, General Carlos Acosta Perez in Guasdualito (Apure). 

Troops will be employed in temporary camps  from which they will mounts patrols moving across border areas in Zulia, Apure, Barinas and Tachira.  The new tactics will also mean changes for troops already stationed in the operations theaters.

The government has finally approved a Unified Intelligence Command which General Victor Cruz Weffer had attempted to set up several years ago. The Command will consist of the Military Intelligence Directorate (DIM), State Political & Security (DISIP) Police and the intelligence services of the Army, Navy (Armada), Air Force (FAV) and National Guard (GN) with the aim of reinforcing the work of border  military units.

End of first phase of the InSAR cartography project of Venezuela (CARTOSUR II)

<a href=www.directionsmag.com>Company: Orbisat Remote Sensing May 13, 2003

The Airborne Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar system (InSAR), OrbiSAR-1 of Orbisat da Amazônia, integrated in an aircraft Turbo Aerocommander has successfully terminated the aerial survey of the States of Bolivar and Delta Amacuro in Venezuela (263 000 sqkm) in the beginning of April 2003. The operational flight survey started in January 2003, overcoming all logistic problems during this time period and successfully produced a huge dataset of superb RADAR raw data. The simultaneous acquisition of two RADAR bands (X- and P-band) allows the production of 518 high quality Ortho-SAR-Maps in a scale of 1:50 000, including contour lines and various land cover elements such as forest types, water bodies and streams, roads, building density, roads, land use etc.

The collected data is now being processed in a processing center, which has been established especially for this project in the Centro Profesional del Este in Caracas. About twelve Venezuelans, who have been specifically trained by Orbisat da Amazônia, work on the required data processing in three shifts for 24 hours a day. They are supported by representatives of Infoterra from Germany and Orbisat, Brazil.

The InSAR processing software, developed by Orbisat da Amazônia S/A is generating each day Ortho-SAR-Images and the respective digital ground and surface models, to allow a production of several value added cartographic maps per day, which is performed by additionally developed software through Infoterra and Orbisat. It is now the daily task of the purchaser of this project, the Geographical Institute of Venezuela Simon Bolívar (IGVSB), to control and catalogue the 518 maps in their database, which are being produced in the scale of 1:50.000.

Orbisat da Amazônia S/A is already preparing its equipment for the next national and international projects, which will require higher resolution and height precision than requested within the Venezuelan project. The updated OrbiSAR-1 system will therefore offer a spatial resolution of up to 50 cm and a vertical accuracy of up to 30 cm in a full operational mapping mode.

This unique Brazilian InSAR mapping system was developed and manufactured in Campinas, Manaus and Sao José dos Campos Brazil, by the kind support of Softex and BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank). By today, BNDES extend their support towards the financing of the exportation of the products generated by OrbiSAR-1.

Stocks down in Mexico, up in Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela

<a href=www.sfgate.com>SFGate.com Tuesday, May 13, 2003
(05-13) 14:34 PDT MEXICO CITY (AP) --

Mexican stocks edged lower Tuesday, influenced by weakness in U.S. equities markets.

The market's key IPC index closed down 0.1 percent or 4.54 points to 6,491.89. At the end of 2002, the IPC stood at 6,127.09.

Volume was 95.8 million shares worth 1.29 billion pesos, well above Monday's 52 million shares worth 756.2 million pesos.

A Mexico City trader said the market continued to be tied to the performance of the U.S., where the Dow Jones Industrials fell 0.5 percent despite some strength in technology stocks that kept Nasdaq losses to a minimum.

The trader said hesitant U.S. markets were making it hard for local stocks to add to recent gains.

Mexican bellwether Telmex L shares fell 1.4 percent to 15.36 pesos, while the L shares of its sister wireless telephony concern America Movil slipped 0.6 percent to 8.99.

Broadcaster TV Azteca CPO shares closed down 1.9 percent to 3.63, and media group Televisa CPO shares ended 1.2 percent lower at 15.16.

SAO PAULO, Brazil (AP) -- Brazil's stocks rose Tuesday as investors bet on an interest rate cut next week after three better-than-expected inflation reports hit the market.

Despite selling on New York exchanges, the main Ibovespa index rose 0.8 percent to 13,429 points from Monday's finish of 13,320 points. Tuesday's close was the highest since April 2002.

Inflation results from the IGP-M, Fipe and IPCA indices showed price pressures are easing at a good clip. The trend could prompt the central bank to lower interest rates from 26.5 percent at a May 21 monetary policy meeting.

Most stocks gained across the board.

Jetmaker Embraer extended Monday's gains, rising 3.6 percent to 11.12 reals on news of a $2.1 billion order from U.S. Airways. The company will release what are expected to be weak first-quarter results later Tuesday, but the company may tell investors it's more confident about future sales strength.

Oil giant Petrobras rose 1.6 percent to 54.35 and bellwether Telemar gained 1.5 percent to 35.00

AES unit Eletropaulo ended flat at 31.99 after the U.S. parent company said it would present a new debt rescheduling proposal this week that's designed to halt a government plan to takeover and resell the debt-saddled company.

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Argentine stocks dropped Tuesday for the second day in succession amid intense speculation that Carlos Menem would withdraw from Sunday's presidential elections.

The large-cap Merval Index slipped 5.12 points, or 0.8 percent, to 618.60 points, while the broader General Index lost 263.66 points, or 0.9 percent, to close at 28,671.47 points.

Recent polls have shown government-supported Nestor Kirchner winning the second round runoff by a landslide. The Merval fell 2.2 percent Monday on the assumption that Kirchner, perceived as the less market-friendly of the two candidates, would be the next president. But the possibility of Menem's last-minute withdrawal caused a further drop.

"The rumors that Menem would drop out are very strong," said Guillermo Wilhelam of local stockbrokers Puente Hermanos. "In the first round, Kirchner had only 22 percent, so this would mean he becomes president with very little political support."

On Tuesday, volume totaled 42.3 million pesos.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuelan shares ended slightly higher Tuesday, following the market's biggest stock, CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela, or CANTV, which gained 2 percent.

The IBC General Stock Index, of which CANTV accounts for 40 percent, closed at 8,790 points, up 33 points, or about 0.4 percent. Total trading was equivalent to about US$518,000.

CANTV gained 50 bolivars, or about 2 percent, to close at 2,500. Financial conglomerate Mercantil Servicios Financieros 'A' shares ended 0.6 percent lower at 1,312 each.