H. JOSEF HEBERT, <a href=www.sfgate.com>SFGate.com-Associated Press Writer Friday, May 9, 2003
(05-09) 04:57 PDT WASHINGTON (AP) --

Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham, just back from a trip to the Persian Gulf, says a major expansion of Iraqi oil production beyond prewar levels will be impossible for years because of the condition of the country's oil industry.

While Iraqi oil exports could reach prewar levels of 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day "within a reasonable time," expectations much beyond that are unrealistic given the damage and other shortcomings of Iraq's oil infrastructure, Abraham said Thursday in an interview with The Associated Press.

Abraham, who during his trip last week met with the oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, said he sensed little if any anxiety among Persian Gulf producers about future Iraqi oil production. He said they recognize Iraq's production limitations and expect the country to remain in the OPEC oil cartel.

Some energy analysts, as well as some within the Iraqi exile community, have expressed hope that Iraqi exports, which have never been higher than about 3 million barrels a day, could reach 4 million to 6 million barrels a day in the near future and bring in more money to help reconstruction.

But analysts have said such an expansion also could raise concern among other producers, including Saudi Arabia, that it might drive down prices and disrupt OPEC oil marketing strategies to keep prices around $25 a barrel.

Abraham said production much beyond Iraq's prewar 2 million barrel-a-day level would require major capital investments and take years to complete.

"Speculation about massive increases in production in the near or reasonably near future is completely exaggerated," he said, adding that "the capabilities for that kind of production just doesn't exist."

Abraham, echoing other administration officials, emphasized that future decisions on Iraqi oil policy, including whether to remain in OPEC, would be up to the Iraqis. Whatever their decision, a stable government in Iraq will "alleviate at least some of the concern" about future oil supply disruptions in the region and benefit all consuming nations, not only the United States, said Abraham.

Abraham said an intense campaign of "quiet diplomacy" led to early assurances that Saudi Arabia and other oil producers would boost production and stabilize markets once war erupted in Iraq.

Abraham cited the relatively calm response of oil markets to the war in Iraq, compared to the volatile price spikes and supply disruptions that accompanied turmoil in the region and the Iranian revolution in the 1970s.

"It turned out pretty well," said Abraham during the hourlong interview in his office.

"If somebody had said that this limited dislocation would occur (with a war in the Middle East) and that you wouldn't have to tap the strategic (U.S. oil) reserve ... I don't think many people would have taken the bet," he said.

In the months leading up to the war, said Abraham, he and other administration officials had "many conversations" with OPEC producers and others in search of commitments to replace oil lost from Iraq. He declined to go into details.

The OPEC producers announced early on that they would boost production to replace oil lost because of Venezuela's political strife and gave assurances that Iraqi oil also would be replaced if war erupted. In the months leading up to the war, Saudi Arabia, which had the largest amount of excess capacity, pumped 9.5 million barrels a day -- 1.5 million barrels above its OPEC quota -- and built up substantial stocks.

While oil prices increased before the war to nearly $40 a barrel because of uncertainty about the ability to protect the region's oil fields, prices quickly dropped once it became clear the war would be short, the Iraqi fields were protected and plenty of oil stocks were available.

By MARCELA ROJAS THE JOURNAL NEWS (Original publication: May 9, 2003)

NEW CITY — Following the Sept. 11 terrorist attack on the World Trade Center, New York City Fire Chief Dan Daly was so angry at the loss of 50 of his friends that his first thought was to pick up a gun, he said.

"I decided to pick up a microphone instead," the Ossining resident told members of the New City Rotary Club this week.

Daly recounted his own efforts and those of fellow firefighters to rescue the living and recover the dead at Ground Zero. The slide presentation, which featured rarely seen photos taken by New York City Police Officer Vincent Caminara, was one of dozens Daly has given in the aftermath of 9/11.

"Giving these talks is part of my own healing process," Daly said, who retired from his post at Engine 52 in the Bronx last November. "There is value to keeping the lessons of 9/11 alive. In the 16 acres of devastation, there were a lot of stories of tragedy, but a lot of inspirational stories as well."

As part of its antiterrorism initiative, Daly was hired by the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs in March 2002 to speak to students, government leaders and civic groups throughout the world about his personal experiences in dealing with the terrorist attack on New York. He has traveled extensively throughout Latin America, including tours of Nicaragua, Venezuela, Paraguay and Brazil, giving speeches on the need for all nations to stand strong against terrorism. Daly's next scheduled stop is Tibet, he said.

"Over 80 nations lost people in the Trade Center attacks," he said. "This wasn't an attack against the U.S., but humanity. In my talks, I have found there to be a strong solidarity for the victims of 9/11 and Americans in general. It is important that all nations bond together in these times."

Etched in his memory are such tragic events as finding a woman's hand sticking out of the rubble, he said.

"There was a wedding band on her hand and that made it more real for me," said Daly, 54. "She had a husband. She may have had kids. She had a wedding ceremony. A life. This wasn't just a piece of flesh."

Other heartwrenching memories included attending 343 funerals, one for each of the New York City firefighters who lost their lives in the rescue efforts. He paused during the slide presentation at a photo of several firefighters carrying deceased Fire Department Chaplain Mychal Judge out of the wreckage.

"The most difficult was seeing a young boy or girl holding their father's helmet and knowing they would never come back," he said.

Equally as memorable were the lessons of teamwork, strength and compassion borne out of the tragedy, he said. Daly recalled working side by side with firefighters who came from Chicago to help out. He spoke of returning to the firehouse at 3 a.m. to find hundreds of lighted candles and bales of flowers left by 200 residents.

"It is said that New York City firefighters stood tall," he said. "But that pile would have never been moved if it weren't for the community."

Some Rotary Club members found Daly's presentation difficult to bear and left the luncheon. Most, however, stopped eating to view the sobering shots of dozens of people jumping out of the burning skyscrapers and others on the ground covered in blood and ashes.

"All those colors on the slides show the complete sacrifices these firefighters made," Rotary Club President Frank Borelli said. "It is a real honor to have Dan here and to share those experiences with us because everyone in some way has a connection to 9/11."

Daly's love of public speaking did not come easy, he said. Over a six-year period, he worked out his communication struggles with the Westchester Toastmasters in Harrison. Daly then began public speaking on behalf of the FDNY and later developed a public speaking program for firefighters, he said.

Two months after Sept. 11, Daly began speaking to local school children of his own volition.

"I saw how the school kids were taking a big hit with this," he said. "I wanted to show them that there is hope for this world."

The State Department caught wind of his work as a volunteer speaker and asked him to join their efforts in sharing with the world the tragedies and triumphs of 9/11.

Daly said he was moved to work for the U.S. government because of the deep loss he felt from losing his firefighter friends and because he wanted to take steps toward preventing another such tragedy.

"Capt. Daly connects with people throughout the world, at every level," said Patricia Harrison, assistant secretary for educational and cultural affairs. "His grace and eloquence in retelling the experience of a firefighter working at Ground Zero reached audiences in person and on TV and in print. The people of New York and the Fire Department of New York could not have had a better representative than Dan Daly."

Daly will speak at the Toastmasters 7444 at 12 p.m. Tuesday, at the New York Life Building, 27 E. 27th St. To attend, e-mail: jsimms@uwts.org.

Send e-mail to Marcela Rojas

Caracas, May 9 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's economy probably had its biggest contraction ever in the first quarter as an unsuccessful strike to oust President Hugo Chavez crippled oil production and consumer spending.

Gross domestic product probably shrank 29 percent in the first quarter from the same period a year ago, according the median forecast of seven economists in a Bloomberg survey. That loss almost matches oil's one-third contribution to the Venezuelan economy. The previous worst contraction was 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002.

``Chavez is still popular with a lot of the poor, but this economic depression is really going to test that popularity,'' said Benito Berber, an analyst with research firm IDEAglobal in New York.

The shrinking economy may accomplish what Chavez's opponents failed to get with the two-month strike: a new president. Chavez could face a binding referendum on his mandate later this year, which if he loses would lead to new elections. The strike, which cost the economy $7.4 billion, helped drive unemployment to 21 percent, and polls show about 60 percent of Venezuelans want Chavez to leave.

The economy has contracted two of the four years the former army lieutenant colonel has been in office.

The country's oil industry, which usually accounts for about 30 percent of GDP, fell 45 percent in the January-March period, according to Alejandro Grisanti, an analyst at Santander Investment in Caracas.

Oil Production

Oil production, which fell to 150,000 barrels a day in the first week of January, rose to 3 million barrels a day by the end of March, according to the government. Oil output averaged 1.8 million barrels a day during the first three months of the year, down about 35 percent from the year before, the government said.

The strike and concerns that a war in Iraq would cut production from that country boosted crude oil prices to $34.67 a barrel on March 12 from $23.63 on Nov. 13. Prices fell to $27 yesterday.

``The productive apparatus has been hit by everything that has happened recently -- the strike, the social and political conflict, the uncertainty, the lack of currency,'' said Domingo Maza, one of seven central bank directors.

Chavez restricted foreign currency trading in January to bolster international reserves depleted by falling confidence in the bolivar.

Since then the government has authorized the sale of only $105 million, compared with daily sales of about $60 million a day before the restrictions. The lack of dollars has stifled production in a country that imports 60 percent of consumer goods and where many companies rely on foreign parts and raw material to operate.

Provisions

It's not just that we're running out of food, there are no car parts, tools, chemicals for companies, fertilizers for farmers,'' said Albis Munoz, president of Fedecamaras, the largest business association. When you attack private business, when you cut off dollars, you're cutting off the Venezuelan people.''

The government says it will import essential goods to avoid shortages.

Chavez's relations with many of the country's business people has been tense since he decreed 49 laws in October 2001 that included one allowing the government to confiscate private property.

There must be an agreement between the government and private sector over resources and the division of labor,'' Maza said. Without it, there's no possibility of overcoming the economic crisis we're in.

The following chart provides a breakdown of forecasts for first quarter and 2003 GDP growth by firm:

T* Firm First Quarter 2003 IDEAglobal -19 -9.1 J.P. Morgan -24 -15 Santander Investment -35.2 -9.3 Banco Mercantil -27.1 -11.3 Deutsche Bank -38.5 -15.3 UBS Warburg -29 -15.5 BBVA -36 -12.3 Bear Sterns -15 Morgan Stanley -16.9 Veneconomy -16.8 IMF -17

Median -29 -15 T* Last Updated: May 9, 2003 06:27 EDT

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Friday, May 09, 2003 By: Robert C. Howard

Date: Mon, 5 May 2003 22:05:33 EDT From: Robert C. Howard  Expat97s@aol.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Dutch & Belgian Navy assisting Uncle Sam

Dear Editor: I must say I was a little surprised at the results of the <a href=www.vheadline.com>poll on whether the US should stay out of Venezuela's internal affairs.

Well, it simply can not happen the way you may envision it.

I have some very good friends here in the States from Venezuela and they very much want the US to be involved ... but, as we know, that is not surprising.

I have been to Central America & the Caribbean and know a little about the situation there.

Of course I'm interested in the "happenings" of the region ... it's unfortunate that things inside Venezuela are unpleasant ... nut to elect someone like Chavez in my opinion is completely out of control.

There are tremendous forces in this world that are colliding. The question is whose side is one on?

The (Venezuelan) administration of the previous decade was a disaster ... I believe that is common knowledge.  Now, the US is mobilizing ... that's just the way it is.

Now, are the nations of the world going to embrace peace; or hostilities?

The US has a very powerful military ... after the Sept. 11th attack, the fight's on.

Robert C. Howard Expat97s@aol.com Houston, Tx.

P.S. We (USA) need all the friends we can get.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Friday, May 09, 2003 By: Francisco Rivero

Date: Thu, 08 May 2003 08:06:51 -0400 From: Francisco Rivero riverofjr@hotmail.com To: Editor@VHeadline.com Subject: Reply to Mrs. Gable

Dear Editor: In response to Mrs. Gable:

Quote -<a href=www.vheadline.com>The point is, that today's task is not to point fingers at the past, but to learn from it ... and move forward ... developing alternatives that may include the best of both paradigms. But, more likely, it will be found in a completely new one.-Unquote

That’s seems to be the problem Mrs. Gable...

Notwithstanding learning and creativity we are always asked to place our future in the hands of the whimsical fancies of the next “lider maximo”... to march under the “other world is possible” banner ... led astray like lemmings to the “sea of happiness”... for the joy and glory of armchair social experimenters.

Don’t you think it is utterly irresponsible to throw an entire nation down the road of untested and uncertain alternatives-yet-to-be-developed?

To plow forward on new experiments and new social structures?

Weren't they exactly the recipes of Chairman Mao and Comrade Brother Pol?

I think you are displaying a certain naivete about the subject ... do you agree?

Francisco Rivero riverofjr@hotmail.com Caracas, Venezuela.