daralhayat.com
Marzuq Al Halabi Al-Hayat 2003/05/06
The American threats against Syria aim, in their first phase, to put that country on the defensive, which is hardly a comfortable situation. Such situation becomes suffocating when the American administration monopolizes not only economic activities, but also the right to direct accusations and define the issues, as well as put individuals and governments on trial.
Still, I don’t think that the motives for attacking Iraq exist in the Middle East. They exist in the logic of ruling elites in America. Mainly economic and intellectual elites. They are now driven by the joy of military and political victory in Iraq and haunted by new convictions that they are capable of implementing all their schemes.
The surplus in American power is based at three levels: military, economic and political standing throughout the world. Such surplus has placed the Americans above international legitimacy and its institutions illustrated by the UN and the Security Council. Yet most analysts in the Arab world continue to base their hopes on false dreams. They still expect the Red Army to come and liberate them. Still we cannot, even in Syria, rely on a united Arab position. The notions of Arabism and Arab world have changed and we must review their premises. If we assume that we are not a “united world with an eternal message,” then we must deal with Egypt the same way we deal with any other country in the world, and we must appeal to public opinion in the UAE, for example, the way we appeal to public opinion in the U.S. Only then will we be able to achieve gains in dealing with the assault on Syria.
The theory of excess of power demands changing it into an act that is not possible its temptation. That was translated in the case of Afghanistan and later in Iraq. But there are other concealed illustrations, such as dominating Arab oil and bribing the Bulgarians or blackmailing President Hosni Mubarak. Moreover, like any other absolute theory that of excess of power tries to justify its crimes. And just like outrages were committed in the name of socialism or fascism as two absolute theories, we can witness similar outrages committed in the name of defending democracy in the wake of 9/11.
For a long period of time, combating communism was a pretext for supporting tyrannies around the world. And in the case of Iraq, the invasion that caused destruction and killing was justified as aimed at “liberating” the people of Iraq. But the drive of the American toward Iraq will not be the last push. In one way, it resembles the end of absolute capitalism just as it was the end of absolute socialism. Moreover, democracy as we knew us so far is certainly heading toward its end. The excess of American power came to declare the conclusion of democracy in the sense that it pushes the notion of national security of the state above the concept of the American state itself, as well as above other countries. The Iraqi oil and that of Venezuela are two resources that the American hegemony was unable to subdue by diplomatic means. And if the journey began with occupying Iraq, Syria is the next target of the American power surplus. But the issue is further than oil. It is one that demands obtaining the submission of the smaller powers to the bigger ones.
The war on Iraq maybe the preamble for a world war in which the small powers pay for the struggles among the larger ones. And no matter how strange it might seem, it all depends on the abilities of the Iraqis to resist the Anglo-American occupation. No one knows how the new world order is going to look like.
Mr. Al Halabi is a Palestinian academic from Al Karmal.
Total Fina 1st-Quarter Profit Rises 49% on Oil Prices (Update3)
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Big Oil
By Jad Mouawad and Tom Cahill
Paris, May 6 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Total Fina Elf SA, Europe's third- largest oil company, said first-quarter profit jumped 49 percent after prices surged amid a war in Iraq and disruptions in supplies from Nigeria and Venezuela.
Net income rose to 2.12 billion euros ($2.4 billion), or 3.28 euros a share, from 1.43 billion euros, or 2.13 euros, last year, Chief Financial Officer Robert Castaigne said in an interview. Sales rose 19 percent to 28.3 billion euros.
Oil companies such as Royal Dutch/Shell Group and Exxon Mobil Corp. have posted record profits in the first quarter as crude oil prices climbed to a 12-year high. Prices have fallen by about a third since February, signaling earnings are poised to slide, analysts have said.
Total shares rose as much as 1.1 euros to 123.9 euros on the Paris stock market. The stock has lost 9 percent this year, compared with a 2 percent drop for the Paris benchmark CAC 40 index. Shell has lost almost 5 percent in London.
Unlike its larger rivals, Total's results were crimped by a drop in the dollar, Castaigne said. A stronger euro reduces the profit from dollar-based oil sales.
`Sensitive' to Dollar
Our company is very sensitive to the dollar,'' he said. When there is a decrease of the dollar by 10 percent, our earnings also decrease by 10 percent.''
The Paris-based company repeated a forecast that production will grow by 5 percent this year, after a 10 percent growth rate in 2002. The company holds its annual shareholders meeting today and plans to change its name to Total SA.
Oil and gas production in the first quarter rose by 5 percent, equaling 2.516 million barrels a day, the company said. Total is on track to invest 8.7 billion euros in its operations this year, it said.
Oil prices advanced over recent months on concern a war in Iraq would disrupt supplies from the Persian Gulf. That boosted profitability from pumping oil, while its refining unit benefited from declining inventories. Crude oil in New York averaged $33.75 a barrel in the first quarter, compared with $21.59 in the same period a year earlier.
Total Fina was expected to report profit of 2.06 billion euros, according to the average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
Last Updated: May 6, 2003 03:20 EDT
Venezuela GDP Likely Shrank 29% in 1st Qtr: Survey (Update2)
By Alex Kennedy
Caracas, May 9 (<a href=quote.bloomberg.com>Bloomberg) -- Venezuela's economy probably had its biggest contraction ever in the first quarter as an unsuccessful strike to oust President Hugo Chavez crippled oil production and consumer spending.
Gross domestic product probably shrank 29 percent in the first quarter from the same period a year ago, according the median forecast of seven economists in a Bloomberg survey. That loss almost matches oil's one-third contribution to the Venezuelan economy. The previous worst contraction was 17 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002.
``Chavez is still popular with a lot of the poor, but this economic depression is really going to test that popularity,'' said Benito Berber, an analyst with research firm IDEAglobal in New York.
The shrinking economy may accomplish what Chavez's opponents failed to get with the two-month strike: a new president. Chavez may face a binding referendum on his mandate later this year, which if he loses would lead to new elections. The strike, which cost the economy $7.4 billion, helped drive unemployment to 21 percent, and polls show about 60 percent of Venezuelans want Chavez to leave.
The economy has contracted two of the four years the former army lieutenant colonel has been in office. The central bank usually announces GDP results six to eight weeks after the end of a quarter.
The country's oil industry, whose production and revenue usually account for about 30 percent of GDP, fell 45 percent in the January-March period, according to Alejandro Grisanti, an analyst at Santander Investment in Caracas.
Oil Production
Oil production, which fell to 150,000 barrels a day in the first week of January, rose to 3 million barrels a day by the end of March, or back to pre-strike levels, according to the government. Oil output averaged 1.8 million barrels a day during the first three months of the year, down about 35 percent from the year before, the government said.
The strike and concern that a war in Iraq would cut production from that country boosted crude oil prices to $34.67 a barrel on March 12 from $23.63 on Nov. 13. Prices fell to $26.98 yesterday.
``The productive apparatus has been hit by everything that has happened recently -- the strike, the social and political conflict, the uncertainty, the lack of currency,'' said Domingo Maza, one of seven central bank directors.
Chavez restricted foreign currency trading in January to bolster international reserves depleted by falling confidence in the bolivar.
Since then the government has authorized the sale of only $105 million, compared with daily sales of about $60 million before the restrictions. The lack of dollars has stifled production in a country that imports 60 percent of consumer goods and where many companies rely on foreign parts and raw material to operate.
The government fixed the exchange rate at 1,600 bolivars a dollar in February. Companies and individuals scrambling for dollars have pushed the unofficial rate to about 2,200 bolivars.
Provisions
It's not just that we're running out of food, there are no car parts, tools, chemicals for companies, fertilizers for farmers,'' said Albis Munoz, president of Fedecamaras, the largest business association. When you attack private business, when you cut off dollars, you're cutting off the Venezuelan people.''
The government says it will import essential goods to avoid shortages.
Chavez's relations with many of the country's business people have been tense since he decreed 49 laws in October 2001 that included one allowing the government to confiscate private property.
There must be an agreement between the government and private sector over resources and the division of labor,'' Maza said. Without it, there's no possibility of overcoming the economic crisis we're in.''
Inflation quickened to 31 percent last year, a five-year high, from 12 percent in 2001.
The following chart provides a breakdown of forecasts for first quarter and 2003 GDP growth by firm:
T*
Firm First Quarter 2003
IDEAglobal -19 -9.1
J.P. Morgan -24 -15
Santander Investment -35.2 -9.3
Banco Mercantil -27.1 -11.3
Deutsche Bank -38.5 -15.3
UBS Warburg -29 -15.5
BBVA -36 -12.3
Bear Sterns -15
Morgan Stanley -16.9
Veneconomy -16.8
IMF -17
Last Updated: May 9, 2003 13:47 EDT