<a href=www.nytimes.com>NYTimes.com Iraq-United States International Relations Politics and Government Elections By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

It isn't often you get to see a live political science experiment, but that is what we're about to witness in Iraq as the first interim Iraqi government is formed from the different factional leaders in the country. What American advisers and this Iraqi interim government will attempt to answer is the most fundamental question facing the Arab world and many developing countries: How do you get from here to there? How do you go from a brutal authoritarian regime to a decent, accountable, democratizing society, without ending up with an Iranian-style theocracy or chaos?

Interestingly enough, what the smartest experts in the democracy field all seem to agree on is that this interim Iraqi authority should not focus on holding national elections — the hardware of democracy. Elections should come last. Instead, it must start with the software — building, brick by brick, the institutions of a free society — so that when people do get to vote, when national power is up for grabs, they have a range of choices and can be assured that there will be a rotation of power.

"The heart of building liberal democracy is building the institutions of liberty, not holding a quick election," observes Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek International, whose smart and timely new best seller, "The Future of Freedom," addresses this exact problem. "Building the institutions of democracy is not 50 percent of the job. It is 90 percent of the job. It was in Western history. It was for East Asia, and it will be so for Iraq."

This means, argues Mr. Zakaria, concentrating first and foremost on building the "institutions of liberty": a functioning judicial system, a free press, free speech, economic reform, civic institutions and multiple political parties, all anchored in a constitution that has the support, and input, of the main political forces in the nation.

"Elections are an important virtue of governance," notes Mr. Zakaria, "but they are not the only virtue. . . . Economic, civil and religious liberties are at the core of human autonomy and dignity. If a government with limited democracy steadily expands these freedoms, it should not be branded a dictatorship." A decent, gradually democratizing government in Iraq, concludes Mr. Zakaria, could "provide a better environment for life, liberty and happiness" for Iraqis than the more-hardware-than-software illiberal democracies, like Venezuela or Russia, do for their people.

The challenge for the U.S. will be to build such a foundation of liberty in a country with virtually no legacy of it at all. Under ideal conditions that will take years — and it is not clear the Bush team is ready to invest that degree of time, money and people.

Staying power is essential because Iraq under Saddam exhibited the same "distorted political landscape" of so many of its Arab neighbors, says Larry Diamond, the noted democracy specialist at Stanford's Hoover Institution: that is, a voiceless, disempowered, moderate political center — both secular and religious — squeezed between the iron fist of the patriarchal state and the grass-roots alternative of illiberal, intolerant Muslim fundamentalists.

With Saddam's iron fist now removed, the U.S. must help an authentically Iraqi moderate center emerge and sink roots, and not just allow illiberal Islamists to fill the void. This means, Mr. Diamond says, "bringing in the technical advisers and recruiting Iraqis committed to the rule of law, who can gradually build the software of democracy" — from independent courts to countercorruption and audit agencies to an independent press to independent parties — and then giving Iraqis time to learn how to use such tools, while slowly working up from local to national elections.

And don't kid yourself: some kind of multinational peacekeeping force (a NATO-Arab force?) will have to be present for years, while a new Iraqi military, able to defend Iraq's new institutions, is constructed.

"It is possible — just possible — that Iraq could gradually develop into a democracy," argues Mr. Diamond. "It will require [though] a prolonged and internationalized engagement with Iraq, costing billions of dollars over a number of years. We must not repeat the mistakes of our postwar engagement with Afghanistan, which has been ad hoc, haphazard, inadequately funded, tardy in reconstruction and utterly unwilling to deploy and utilize the military force necessary to secure the new political order."  

<a href=www.lapress.org>LatinAmerica PressAndrés Cañizález.  May 6, 2003

Democratic Coordinating Group loses influence and moderates stance.

Since the unsuccessful coup attempt against President Hugo Chávez of April 22, 2002 (LP, April 22, 2002), the opposition Democratic Coordinating Group (DCG) has tried in various ways to bring about the downfall of the President: proposals to cut short the presidential term; constitutional reform; the creation of a new Constituent Assembly. None of them have worked.

Now, following an April 11 preliminary agreement between the government and the opposition, a referendum is likely to be held on the future of Chávez as President. It was Chávez who incorporated this mechanism in the 1999 Constitution, applicable to any elected public figure (LP, Dec. 27, 1999).

stuff.co.nz 07 May 2003

SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady last night awaiting US fuel data for signs of stocking in key gasoline supplies ahead of the peak-demand summer-holiday period, which kicks off at the end of the month.

US light crude traded down three cents to $26.46 a barrel, little changed after Monday's (yesterday, NZT) 82-cent rise in New York.

London's benchmark Brent crude jumped 77 cents to $24.29 a barrel in catch up with the US market. The International Petroleum Exchange was closed on Monday for a public holiday.

US oil prices pushed higher on Monday partly on concerns of a possible gasoline supply crunch in coming months when consumption traditionally peaks.

Gasoline demand in the United States burns up about 12 per cent of global oil supply and is used by traders as a barometer of overall oil demand between the end-May Memorial Day holiday weekend and September's Labor Day.

Data for the week ended May 2 from the government's Energy Information Administration are expected to show a three-million-barrel rise in crude inventories, with gasoline increasing by 1.75 million barrels, said six analysts, polled by Reuters.

US oil stocks have been running at sharp deficits to levels of a year ago. The EIA's report last Wednesday showed US gasoline stocks up by 4.4 million barrels but still 10.5 million barrels below levels at the same point last year.

Crude stocks rose in the week to April 25 by 1.8 million barrels to 288 million, but remained a little over 38 million barrels below a year ago, the EIA said.

"Last year we saw how susceptible the market was to a major supply disruption with the strike in Venezuela. In previous years we have seen the market rise due to stress on the refinery network in the United States," said Sydney-based oil analyst Simon Games-Thomas.

"These factors will support the oil price at, or above, current levels," he said in a daily note.

IRAQI OIL IN UN TANGLE

Oil prices have also found support from a lack of progress in restoring crude supplies from Iraq, where production ground to a halt shortly before the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

Before the war, Iraq was pumping up to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and exporting 1.7-2.0 million bpd, or roughly four per cent of internationally traded oil.

Diplomats at the United Nations said on Monday that Iraq's exports remained stalled despite the weekend appointment of Thamir Abbad Ghadhban to run the country's oil ministry.

The UN Security Council, which oversaw the sale of Iraqi crude under the seven-year-old oil-for-food programme permitted under UN sanctions, is deadlocked over setting up a legal framework to resume sales.

Iraq has crude in storage that could be exported now, but without a competent authority to sign and certify sales oil firms are reluctant to trade the oil for fear of breaking the law.

The United States is expected to produce this week a draft resolution to lift UN sanctions on Iraq, in place since Baghdad invaded neighbouring Kuwait in 1990.

Diplomats said the US proposal would transfer Iraq's oil wealth to a new Iraqi administration with World Bank oversight.

Russia and other Security Council members want the oil sales to remain under UN control.

A UN diplomat representing one of the five permanent UN Security Council members – Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States – said it was "still too early" to say whether Washington's proposal would face resistance similar to earlier this year when it sought authorisation to invade Iraq.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

President Hugo Chavez Frias has appointed Captain (ret.) Eliecer Otaiza as president of the National Job Training Institute (Ince).  

Otaiza is a controversial figure with a short but checkered career ... wounded during the November 27, 1992, uprising, Otaiza went on to become a key member of the Bolivarian Revolutionary Movement (MBR-200) and was elected to the Constituent Assembly. 

President Chavez Frias then appointed him as State Political & Security (DISIP) Police director where he served for one year before being dismissed by the President himself.  Since then, Otaiza has acted a top Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) figure and allegedly overseeing security and defense issues.

Marlene Yadira Cordova has been appointed Science & Technology Minister.  Although little is known about her, the new Minister says she is in favor of generating knowledge to boost sustainable and integral local development on all levels, national, state and municipal.

Her first step will be to introduce a program called "The Innovative Municipality." Among other plans are, as she points out, to develop "state-of-the-art universal knowledge to improve standard of living" and to continue strengthening national research centers and innovative technologies.

<a href=www.vheadline.com>Venezuela's Electronic News Posted: Tuesday, May 06, 2003 By: Patrick J. O'Donoghue

Opposition negotiator, Americo Martin has criticized what he says is President Hugo Chavez Frias' decision not to sign the recall referendum agreement reached between government and opposition representatives.  "Both sides must comply with the recall referendum ... the President himself proposed it to avoid the formula of early elections." 

One-time guerrilla Martin says the government will pay a high political price if they leave the table of negotiations. "The President was a year making the offer and now when he has been taken at his word, he refuses to sign the document." 

The opposition has no qualms about accepting defeat, Martin claims, adding a puzzling conclusion that if Chavez Frias loses, then he (the President) will have to leave the country. The lawyer did not explain why he thought that Chavez Frias would have to abandon Venezuela. 

The government has indeed decided to continue the dialog but through the "proper channels, namely" the National Assembly (AN). Government spokesman Omar Meza says negotiations were placed on the backburner after the bomb attempt on negotiations HQ and changes to the agreement text proposed by the government. 

The government position comes as the six-nation Group of Friends prepares to meet in Caracas this week.  Movimiento Quinta Republica (MVR) leader, Tarek William Saab has proposed the recall of the Peace & reconciliation Committee set up after April 11, 2002 to complement negotiations in parliament. Venezuelan Ambassador to the Organization of American States (OAS), Jorge Valero says the situation is normal and there is no longer any crisis.