<a href=worldnetdaily.com>worldnetdaily.com Posted: April 26, 2003 1:00 a.m. Eastern

Editor's note: By special, exclusive arrangement with Courcy's Intelligence Review, WorldNetDaily publishes excerpts of the latest reports of the world's most prestigious intelligence newsletter.

By Joe deCourcy © 2003 WorldNetDaily.com

There has been surprise in some quarters that the U.S.-led attack on Iraq has not produced a major terrorist response.

The lack of a major terrorist response to the U.S.-led attack on Iraq in fact mirrors the experience of 1991, and the following points are germane:

1. Islamist-inspired terrorism is fuelled by grievances that long pre-date the U.S.-led attack on Iraq and that will long survive the restoration of Iraqi rule in Baghdad. The perpetration of major acts of anti-Western terrorism, therefore, is dependent on the capacity of the terrorists to act rather than the immediate result of any specific policy (such as the invasion of Iraq).

2. The downward trend in international terrorism since 9-11 indicates that the capacity of al-Qaida to strike against Western targets has been significantly diminished – and common-sense suggests this must be so for the following reasons:

• The group's bases in Afghanistan have been destroyed and significant leaders have been killed or captured.
• International intelligence agencies have been collaborating in a far more systematic way since 9-11. The positive effect that this can have was demonstrated at the time of the last Gulf War in 1991 when very few attacks on Western targets were successful. What attacks there were tended to be minor and on the periphery. That has been the case this time as well.
• One major consequence of the Iraq war is that it has demonstrated to anyone who doubted that the current United States administration is not to be fooled with. This has had a salutary effect on all would-be state-sponsors of terrorism, and a severely degraded al-Qaida is now operating in a much less accommodating environment than was previously the case. No state wants to be found with an al-Qaida smoking gun in its hand.
• Saudi Arabia, in particular, will have been frightened by the tone of last year's Rand Corporation report that stigmatized it as the "kernel of evil." The fact that the author of the report was subsequently released by Rand would not have diminished the impact of the report in Riyadh.
• Likewise in Pakistan, President Musharraf is under no illusions as to what would happen if he were to go soft on al-Qaida. It is true that he is maintaining (even increasing) his support for Kashmiri militancy, but worrying though this is it remains a local issue.

3. Although the capacity of al-Qaida has been greatly reduced for the reasons given above, it could still strike at the periphery without too much trouble. But there are problems with this. The Bali bombing (committed by an affiliate organization) achieved little for the cause while producing widespread revulsion among Indonesia's moderate Muslims.

The huge success of the 9-11 attacks adds to the problem for al-Qaida. It would take something extraordinarily spectacular to top the impact of 9-11, whereas a thwarted attack or one that lacked the emotional significance of 9-11 would be seen as a failure.

The danger posed by non-state terrorism has always been the limitation of deterrence. States can be deterred, but groups of fanatics cannot be. However, they can be harried and hounded and spied upon – and their bases can be destroyed. Furthermore, mounting a major terrorist outrage is more difficult than it might at first sight be thought, and without the tacit support of rogue states, al-Qaida's task has become more difficult still.

This is not, for a moment, to say that there is no danger, but it explains the current quiescence and why less has been heard from al-Qaida in the present circumstances than some thought likely.

It goes almost without saying that there remain great dangers ahead, and the negatives include:

• The Islamic world has an inexhaustible supply of grievances and therefore of potential recruits to the terrorist cause.
• There are still many places where terrorist cells and networks can flourish – from the teeming cities of Indonesia, Pakistan, and even Europe to the remote places of South-East Asia, Central Asia, and the Horn of Africa. The expatriate Arab communities as far afield as South America (in the tri-border area for instance and in Venezuela's Margarita island) provide funds and places of refuge.
• Fanatics can now acquire the means to kill on an unprecedented scale.

The key to future security will be continuing international cooperation and relentless pressure on any states showing signs of renewed support for al-Qaida or similar groups. All the indications are that the Bush administration will continue to insist on the former and will not shy away from the latter (except possibly – and dangerously – in Pakistan). However, there is no such thing as an impregnable defense.

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delawareonline.com/newsjournal By JACK IRELAND Staff reporter 04/26/2003

Trainer H. Graham Motion is not alone in his admiration for jockey Ramon Dominguez.

Motion, one of the nation's top young trainers, has won several big races in the past few years at Delaware Park with Dominguez aboard.

And therein lies the problem. The more Dominguez wins, the more other trainers want him for their horses.

As DelPark opens its 66th season of thoroughbred racing today, Dominguez will be riding for Motion and several other trainers at the Stanton track.

"I feel it's a big advantage to have Ramon on my horses. He is such an asset," Motion said.

Dominguez, a native of Venezuela, was leading the DelPark jockey standings last year with 104 wins before missing the last 3 1/2 months of the meet because of a broken wrist. He still finished fifth for the season and had purse earnings of $3,402,882.

After having surgery and going through intensive rehabilitation, Dominguez returned and has been one of the top riders in Maryland over the past five months.

"It's a shame what happened to him last year at Delaware," Motion said. "He was having a phenomenal year. He's a very good rider, but it is getting harder and harder to get him."

Dominguez, 26, said he is fit and ready to work harder than ever. With the retirement of Mike McCarthy, DelPark's leading rider six of the past seven years, Dominguez is the favorite to win his first jockey title at the track.

"I think some people assume it's a done deal that I'll be the leading rider at Delaware," said Dominguez, who rode 11 stakes winners at the track last year. "I think I have a very good chance, but it's not a sure thing. I never underestimate the competition.

Dominguez admitted he feared losing his edge after being injured.

"It was four months, and it was too long," he said. "My therapy after the surgery seemed to take longer than I expected. I was concerned at the time and hoping I would not lose too much business. You never know how horsemen are going to respond. If you don't get the mounts, you start to second-guess yourself.

"A lot of people in Maryland were supportive. I won with my first mount back at Laurel on Quick Punch. I was sure of myself again."

Mike Gill, the nation's leading thoroughbred owner, has used Dominguez on his horses and been impressed by his demeanor.

"For as good as he does, Ramon doesn't have an ego," said Gill, who has been barred from racing this year at DelPark. "I think he's the best in the Mid-Atlantic region. I'll still look to use him when I can. He's very approachable. I like this guy."

John Robb, a trainer for Gill in Maryland, said he also would like to use Dominguez more regularly.

"It gets so frustrating, and I wish I could get him to ride more for me," said Robb, who has been training for 30 years. "With such a big outfit, you would like to get the same riders. I'm loyal, and I want my riders to be loyal.

"Ramon is just doing what is best for his business. There are a lot of people out there who want him."

Dominguez has a strong family connection to horse racing, both thoroughbred and harness. His wife, Sharon, is an exercise rider for Motion at Fair Hill, Md. Bobby Wyatt, her father, is a harness trainer and owner from Harrington.

"I met my wife at Delaware Park when she was galloping horses," Dominguez said. "It's a great situation for us."

Dominguez said he wants to take advantage of any opportunities during the DelPark meet. That, he said, is why he doesn't limit himself to riding for a handful of trainers.

"I feel fortunate to ride for such good trainers like Graham Motion, but I really don't have a first call," Dominguez said. "I want to ride for a lot of trainers at Delaware Park."

Reach Jack Ireland at 324-2808 or jireland@delawareonline.com.

The News Journal/JENNIFER CORBETT Ramon Dominguez earned 104 wins before missing the last 3 1/2 months of last year's Delaware Park meet with of a broken wrist. He still finished fifth in the jockey standings and had purse earnings of $3,402,882.

<a href=www.sfgate.com>SFGate.com-AP Friday, April 25, 2003
(04-25) 18:00 PDT SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic (AP) --

The government is considering asylum for two former Venezuelan soldiers who allegedly held President Hugo Chavez in custody during a brief coup last year, officials said Friday.

Brothers Alfredo and Ricardo Salazar, both former army captains, entered the Dominican Embassy in Venezuela on Thursday and requested asylum. Their attorney said that they had received death threats.

"The Dominican Foreign Ministry is evaluating the information and corresponding documentation to make a decision," the ministry said in a statement.

During the coup, dissident generals briefly ousted Chavez. The action was spurred by violence that left 19 Venezuelans dead when opposition and pro-government marches clashed in downtown Caracas.

Loyalists in the military returned Chavez to power three days later on April 14.

Since then, the opposition has been pushing for a referendum on Chavez's rule, accusing him of trampling on democratic institutions and alienating investment with leftist policies. The president says his foes want to oust a democratically elected leader and restore power to two corrupt political parties that ruled Venezuela for four decades.

In addition to the brothers, two other Venezuelan army officers requested asylum -- at the Peruvian Embassy in Caracas, officials said Friday. Their request was being reviewed.

Meanwhile, U.S. Ambassador Charles S. Shapiro urged Venezuela's government and opposition to strike a deal for a vote on Chavez's presidency, a day after the government refused to sign an internationally brokered pact on the matter.

Venezuela's constitution allows opponents to organize a referendum halfway into the president's six-year term, or next August.

Shapiro said foreign governments are "willing to help the government and opposition on this point if they ask for it."

<a href=www.thescotsman.co.uk>thescotsman.co.uk REED LINDSAY IN BUENOS AIRES

WHEN Argentina erupted in spontaneous protests and political upheaval 16 months ago, there was impassioned talk of revolution as public opinion veered sharply to the left.

Yet the country’s political elite held firm and when Argentines vote for their next president tomorrow, they will be faced with an uninspiring field of aspirants, led by right-wing former president Carlos Saúl Menem.

Ironically, Mr Menem and his main rival, Ricardo López Murphy, a graduate of the University of Chicago, have promised to carry on with the kind of free-market policies that many blame for bringing the country to its knees.

The polls are saying the election will be one of the closest in decades, with most giving Mr Menem a narrow lead but all saying that a second round run-off will be required.

In the dying days of campaigning, rival candidates have attacked Mr Menem. Nestor Kirchner, the government’s candidate, blamed the former president’s 1989-1999 rule for the country’s devastating economic, social and political crisis.

But Mr Menem’s confidence is undimmed. When he appeared before a huge crowd at River Plate’s football stadium in Buenos Aires late on Thursday night, with his 37-year-old ex-beauty queen wife, Cecilia Bolocco, he blamed his successors for the country’s turmoil.

"I am returning. I am returning to rebuild the Argentine republic. I am returning to end hunger, to end poverty and chaos," said Mr Menem. He even invited the people to join him on 25 May at the Government House for the inauguration.

Yet the politicking cannot disguise widespread apathy and cynicism about the election. Indeed, the nation’s burgeoning social movements are boycotting it all together.

"We don’t think any change will take place through this election," said federal deputy Luis Zamora, a straight-shooting former Trotskyite who refused to run for president despite being near the top of popularity polls early last year. "Even if we won the election we wouldn’t be able to pass any laws because congress and the supreme court are the same. We would be fooling the population and legitimating the main parties, which only decided to convoke the election to stay in power."

After the resignation of the former president Fernando de la Rúa in December 2001, middle class Buenos Aires residents formed neighbourhood assemblies in parks and on street corners to co-ordinate pot-banging demonstrations and to discuss everything from the need to fix crumbling pavements to the illegitimacy of the external debt.

Workers seized control of more than 100 bankrupt factories nationwide, reinitiating production under self-management and establishing egalitarian salaries.

But unlike in Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela, where surging social movements have helped sweep left-leaning candidates into office in recent years, no electorally viable political force has taken shape.

"I don’t feel represented by any political party," said Luis, 45, a member of a Buenos Aires neighbourhood assembly, as he held one end of a banner at a protest last week that read "QSVT", which stands for "They All Must Go".

The banner is part of an anti-election campaign organised by the assemblies, which have printed and distributed substitute ballots marked with QSVT. Many Argentines say they are planning on spoiling their ballots or not voting at all. But pollsters say abstentions will be small in comparison with the congressional elections of 2001, when some 40 per cent of Argentines did not vote for any candidate, dubbed voto bronca, or "angry vote".

"The electorate feels that voto bronca isn’t a solution because it ends up benefiting the very candidates it seeks to punish," said Santiago Lacase, an analyst with Buenos Aires-based polling firm Ipsos-Mora y Araujo.

"The only way they get people to vote is by instilling fear about the other candidates, not by talking about their proposals," said Mr Zamora. "A lot of people are voting out of fear that Menem will win. There’s the feeling that if he wins, and you didn’t vote, you’re somehow responsible."