www.11abril.com María Cristina Capriles Caracas 15 de Enero del 2003
Hay dos Venezuela y dos pueblos venezolanos. El Estado soberano República Bolivariana de Venezuela, con un gobierno presidido por el Teniente Coronel Hugo Chávez Frías, electo en comicios libres, quien tras cuatro años de mandato ha alcanzado el mérito de sumir al país en una situación de total desastre social, se encuentra apoyado por una parte del pueblo venezolano, el oficialismo, cada día numéricamente mas reducido. A este grupo Chávez lo distingue y exalta con una serie de vocablos: pueblo "soberano", "bolivariano", "patriota"… Para él, éste es "el pueblo". Entonces, el pueblo de Venezuela no es unívoco. Un otro y mayoritario pueblo está conformado por las multitudinarias filas de la oposición. De parte de Hugo Chávez recibe diferentes epítetos. Comenzó siendo "escuálido", pasó a ser "oligarca", luego "traidor" y ahora es "enemigo". En sus últimas intervenciones el Presidente divide claramente a la población tal como a los ejércitos en un campo de batalla, y a la que debería conformar el único pueblo venezolano, la clasifica en dos grupos enfrentados a partir de su mandato y diametralmente opuestos: patriotas y enemigos, en violenta guerra causada y declarada por él y secundada por sus aláteres. ¡A la ofensiva atacan los patriotas, a la defensiva se paran los enemigos! Un país en estas condiciones es ingobernable, para Chávez y para cualquiera. Por eso, Chávez debería irse ya. Y no hay vuelta atrás en Venezuela. O se va Chávez o habrá "un millón de muertos". Ante esta realidad, los países Amigos de Venezuela también deberán tomar posición y propiciar con efectividad la salida del Presidente. O están con Chávez, basados en un principio legal que tiene su origen en la letra, porque un día fue elegido en las urnas, pero cuyo desempeño al frente del Ejecutivo lo ha eximido totalmente de la legitimidad que debe acompañar las funciones de todo Jefe de Estado, o los países Amigos están con el genuino pueblo de Venezuela, solo y rebelde ante la cuotidiana violencia y la vejación de los derechos humanos, librando una intransigente y legítima defensa por los supremos valores de justicia y libertad, presente y futura.
Este es un llamado a la reflexión de los países Amigos, ante los "dos pueblos" que han sido conformados por Chávez. Estos Amigos tienen ante si un dilema, y la gran responsabilidad de coadyuvar con su apoyo al logro de la paz antes que sea demasiado tarde, y así a la nueva formación del uno y solo pueblo hermano de Venezuela.
www.11abril.com Alexandra Beech New York 8 de Enero del 2003
Hi,
Early summer last year, the Minister of Economic Planning, Felipe Perez Marti, launched an interactive website in Venezuela, www.foronacional.gov.ve. The goal was to allow Venezuelans to contribute their opinions in areas such as Economy, Politics, Technology, International Relations, etc. I started to write in the forum almost from the start, though it quickly became evident that the minister would only respond to those who agreed with the government.
On one occasion, I asked a well-known Wall Street strategist to participate in the foro, and soon after, the minister speculated whether the "Cuban Mafia or the CIA had infiltrated" the site. On that day, I sadly realized that the government's economic framework was in the hands of an incompetent individual. A few months later, during a visit to the University of Chicago, I mentioned to the Alumni Director that the minister was a University of Chicago PhD in Economics, and he grimaced. As you may know, the University of Chicago is famous for Robert Lucas, Gary Becker, James Heckman, Robert Fogel and Milton Friedman - all Nobel Economics Laureates. More than any other school of economics, the University of Chicago economists emphasize that the only engine of growth is private investment, best achieved through free markets. Anyone would think that Minister Perez Marti would have walked away from Chicago with a firm understanding of the basic concepts that shape the first world, after the seven or eight years it took to complete his PhD. Instead, he took the concepts and distorted them for the Chavista Revolution, which he regards with messianic fervor. On one occasion, he wrote in the foro that truth would prevail as Christ prevailed, something Chavez might say to his body guard while scrubbing in the shower.
I'd like to share a cyber conversation that took place between Minister Marti and a close friend of mine today. During a chat, I had mentioned to Carlos that the Minister had once written that he would resign if he didn't succeed at downsizing the state. Needless to say, those who didn't read between the lines assumed that he would launch a stable program to cut bureaucracy. What I never imagined is that what looks like a haphazard slaughterhouse at state oil company PDVSA today, where almost 10,000 have almost been fired by reading their names in the newspaper, would actually be part of the minister's Grand Plan. While nothing less than a criminal brain drain takes place in Venezuela, the Minister toasts. Talented nuclear engineers, scientists, managers, accountants, human resources specialists - ten thousand Venezuelan professionals - are scrambling to find homes and food for their children - all part of the Minister's successful plan.
Please visit that site, if you have time and patience, and share with Minister Perez Marti your opinions on his current economic success.
Autor: Carlos (200.44.242.---) Fecha: 02-08-03 16:10 08 de Febrero 2003
Sr. Ministro Felipe Fernando Candelario Pérez Marti Phd.
Tomando sus palabras de fecha 06-07-2002, la cual formaron parte de una intervención en este foro denominado "Sobre los ingresos", usted implementó el uso de estas palabras:
"ESTOY FORMANDO UNA COMISION PARA REFORMAR EL ESTADO Y ME COMPROMETO A QUE SI NO HAGO ALGO SUSTANCIAL EN ESTE SENTIDO, RENUNCIARE (ME TRAZO SEIS MESES PARA HACER LA PROPUESTA Y EMPEZAR A TOMAR ACCIONES, PERO EMPREZARAN A VER "EXITOS TEMPRANO" MUY PRONTO, YA LO VERAN............"
Sr. Ministro, en nombre de una mayoría calificada de ciudadados soberanos de La República de Venezuela, se da en lugar y aceptamos su renuncia por no haber cumplido sus metas trazadas. Favor tomar nota que se le extendió el plazo por 2 meses, para un total de 8.
Firma: La Sociedad Civil Democrática
Autor: Felipe Pérez Martí (200.44.150.---) Fecha: 02-08-03 16:46
Hola, Carlos. Te recomiendo que visites la página www.foronacional.gov.ve, en la biblioteca, sobre el trabajo de la referida comisión. Desde que se formó tiene un tiempo de seis meses para hacer su formulación, y el plazo es en Marzo. Sobre los éxitos tempranos, te voy a remitir a nuestro coordinador en materia de tecnología, Ricardo Strusberg, y a nuestro secretario ejetucivo de la comisión, Jorge Baralt, quien deben responderte con más detalle sobre esto (en realidad parte de nuestros éxitos han sido en Pdvsa, pero esta es de las cosas que no se van a comentar en detalle todavía). Pendientes (y no cantes victoria... ;-),
Felipe
Autor: Carlos (200.44.242.---) Fecha: 02-08-03 17:13
Sr. Ministro,
La única victoria que quiero cantar es para el colectivo del pueblo Venezolano. Aquí ninguno de nosotros somos más que otros, somos todos Venezolanos. Yo soy un opositor a este gobierno Sr. Ministro, pero si estoy de acuerdo con los cambios en PDVSA aún cuando no estoy de acuerdo en la forma como lo están realizando. Yo viví por muchos años dentro de la industria como contratista, viví las injusticias y corrupción, fui dueño de una empresa que limpió más de 3.000 pozos a nivel de oriente y occidente, hoy en día tuve que vender todos mis equipos especializados de bombeo debido a la política petrolera implementada por este gobierno y estoy a la espera de ver cual va ser el rumbo que va a tomar nuestro país. A mis 32 años me siento inseguro del futuro de mis tres hijos, no voy a abandonar mi tierra natal, sigo creyendo en ella.
I still remember the day Mr. Chavez announced your name on alo presidente. I also remembered the day you gave your first press conference in Miraflores, you mentioned this site, I gave you my humble blessings via this site, I really believed in you and your word, hearing you speak that day kept me from sending my family to the U.S. or Dominican Republic to start a new life, I feel you let us down.
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www.11abril.com Alexandra Beech New York 12 de February del 2003
Good day,
Each day that passes, I become convinced that the greatest enemy of Venezuelan democracy is not Hugo Chavez, who was elected in 1998 by a 35% vote. The greatest enemies that Venezuela confronts today are ignorance and arrogance.
When I write "ignorance," I am referring both to the ignorance in Venezuela and in the world at large. While past failed policies created a poor majority with little access to education, this is not the ignorance I would like to address, even though Chavez has capitalized on that ignorance to promote his brand of inept government. The other type of domestic ignorance afflicts "educated" people, and this ignorance is doing the most harm. Because of the insidious nature of Venezuelan politics, it is often easier to march than to think about what is actually going on. It is easier to sign petitions and petitions, instead of understanding the intricacies and dynamics of the process of change. In our complacent and lax nature, many Venezuelans would rather fret and think about a future without Chavez, instead of the concrete steps that it will take to recover the country from chaos. Almost everyone I know can recite ten emotionally based reasons why Chavez should leave, along with at least three economic indicators. When asked what percentage of the population needs to sign a petition for a referendum, or how a constitutional assembly is formed, many of us shrink or "have to think about it."
Therefore, I am proud to share with you a document that my friend Michael Penfold recently produced with his colleague, Francisco Monaldi, titled "Constitutional Alternatives for Solving Venezuela’s Political Crisis: Lapses, Obstacles, and Long Term Consequences" (word document). Reading it last night, I felt a surge of relief and panic; relief that I was finally understanding the process, and panic that Chavez has so advantages. Please take the time to read it today.
Examples of international ignorance towards Venezuela abound. And why not? Except for providing a lot of oil to international markets, we have hardly featured in the news. When was the last time we produced a novelist of international renown, a human rights icon, a political leader of international dimensions, or even a pop star? I don't know a lot about Burundi, as much as Burundi may feel like the center of the universe to the 6,134,000 people who live there.
In fact, Venezuela didn't make it on the international news landscape until the December 2 strike. And it wasn't because the world cared about the collapse of our democracy, but because gasoline prices rose ten cents on the gallon.
Undoubtedly, those in the government who handle information know that most of the world is ignorant. That is why they bought an eight-page insert that appeared in the New York Times on December 23, 2002, describing how wonderful and idyllic Venezuela was. As Venezuela entered the third week of the strike, Americans read pieces titled "Strategic Ally has Bright Prospects", "Firms Rise to Construction Challenge", and "Spiritual Values and a Yen for Development". Only those who read the tiny script at the top of each page would have noticed, "Special Advertising Section."
Money talks, no doubt, but ignorance talks louder. Europeans have their own challenges, as attested by a piece in The Socialist Worker, which describes the strike as: "highly undemocratic--and is directed against any political or economic advances made by Venezuelan workers, the unemployed or the rural poor." Any Venezuelan who has experienced the crisis knows that under Chavez's economic policies, those most afflicted have been the workers, the unemployed, and the poor. But the Europeans love a social struggle between the natives of the third world. It is their raison d'etre.
The opposition is arrogant in assuming that it has time to squabble over who should be its candidate, who should announce the Sumate petition results, or who has the best transition program. They should function on the assumption that the country is an intensive care unit under the guidance of an incompetent surgeon, and that all measures need to be taken now. That means one candidate now, and one transition program now. If they can prove to the world that they are solid and united in their effort to elect a new president and embark on a course to democracy, then their case will be made before the world.
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www.11abril.com Alexandra Beech New York 29 de Enero del 2003
Good day,
As the weeks roll on, the oil strike in Venezuela emerges as the main card in the opposition's favor. Those who understand the oil strike, including details of the Venezuelan oil industry, will have a firm idea of whether the government will be forced to negotiate, or whether all sides will sink in obstinacy. Oil represents not only revenues but the nation's life blood. As the government announces higher and higher levels of production, it's important to keep a tight finger on the actual pulse of production, so that we aren't swindled or misled.
Recently, I spoke with two local oil experts, Charles Beech and PDVSA production superintendent Jose Torres, who spend time with the on-site workers who actually see figures right off the barrel counters on pipe lines and tank storage levels.
Charles told me that neither investors nor the opposition should feel worried when the government announces production increases, such as the proposterous 1.6 million barrels announced by Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel earlier this week. It's all psychological warfare. The government thinks that if it can convince the world that it's back in the oil game, it will demoralize the opposition and gain an upper hand in negotiations. It hopes that PDVSA workers will wander back to work. However, the people on the oil fields have a very different take on production, which they say will only increase up to a maximum of 1. 5 million barrels a day, and then level off.
The only wells functioning in Venezuela today are natural flowing, that is, they pump light oil that naturally flows to the surface. Both experts told me that the government is already starting to have production problems with the natural flowing wells in Pirital and El Carito in Monagas state. The problems are due to the formation of asphaltene , a very heavy substance made of hydrocarbon molecules that bind and harden at high pressures. This "asphalt-like" substance creates plugs on the anulars on production tubing and formations. It also builds up on the walls of production tubing and lines - slowly choking a well.
Therefore chemical and mechanical procedures need to be implemented to counteract the effects of the asphaltene. This is called "servicing an oil well." Wells are serviced by international companies that have equipment, materials, and know-how for the procedures. Mr. Torres said that most of the companies that service oil wells are currently on strike. Until they are serviced, the wells that are "plugged up" will remain inoperable. The government is attempting to reactivate secondary wells to offset production drop offs on these wells. On Tuesday, "they opened up production in the Musipan field and closed it up again today for unknown reasons."
Besides the formation of asphaltene, other problems are likely to cap off production at naturally flowing wells. Part of the process of production is separating oil from water. American companies normally supply the chemicals that separate these two substances. However, these companies have stopped providing the proper chemicals. Moreover, the government is having difficulties with water handling, according to Mr. Torres. Due to a lack of skilled labor, the government is experiencing difficulties processing the water properly. As more oil is produced, the government will likely face greater problems disposing of the water filtered from the process.
Another problem confronting the government is that some wells are being "overproduced". Like a car that is too revved up to run, over production takes place when production is "run at greater speeds than the capacity of a unit," according to Mr. Torres. This damages the wells and the reservoirs of water. Allegedly, while Mr. Chavez has succeeded in reaching peak production in Northern Monagas, government oil workers are panicking because of overproduction in several wells.
A final problem slowly turning into a media nightmare for the government is the amount of gas it is burning. The government's own rules limit burning up to 2% of daily gas production. Currently, Mr. Torres says that "the government is burning 20% to 30% of daily gas production." When burned at high levels, according to environmentalist Luis Alfredo Brunicardi, "gas contains high levels of hydrogen sulfur contents, generating sulfur dioxide, which produces acid rain and contributes to the greenhouse effect and global warming."
The oil currently being produced in Venezuela is light, which accounts for 62% of total Venezuelan oil. A common myth is that most Venezuelan oil is heavy crude. But of the total 3.3 million barrels of oil produced under normal circumstances, only 1.28 million barrels or 38% were heavy crude, according to Mr. Torres. Still, the government will not be able to produce heavy crude until the strike ends, because of the pumping procedures required. Currently, Zulia state is producing approximately 600,000 barrels a day. The wells in Monagas State in Eastern Venezuela are producing around 700,000 for a total of 1.3 million barrels of light crude. All experts agree that it is impossible that this number will increase beyond 1.5 million barrels per day while the strike lasts.
I'd like to end this piece with a human angle that in the end matters the most. Both Mr. Torres and his wife worked for PDVSA for many years. Each day, dissident PDVSA workers find out that they have been fired by reading their names in the local newspaper. Mrs. Torres already read her name on the list of workers fired. We can only hope that the international community steps up pressure to restore democracy in Venezuela so that day never comes when Mr. Torres reads his name too.
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