www.sanmateocountytimes.com112681155293,00.html Article Last Updated: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 12:27:30 PM MST By Juan Forero, New York Times

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Organized opposition to President Hugo Chavez edged closer Sunday to a fractious defeat, one day after leaders of a two-month-old general strike officially abandoned most of that protest because it was so unpopular and economically disastrous.

While thousands of Venezuelans turned out Sunday to sign petitions seeking Chavez's resignation, they have no legal effect and Chavez is expected to ignore them. And while anti-Chavez oil workers remain on strike, the government has managed to increase oil production in recent weeks, making their protest increasingly ineffective in Venezuela's most important industry.

"We have definitively defeated a new destabilizing aim, a new perverse, malevolent, criminal effort to sink Venezuela, sink the revolution, sink the government," Chavez told the nation Sunday in this weekly televised call-in show.

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The opposition, which had coalesced in recent months under an umbrella called the Democratic Coordinator to prod for Chavez's ouster, is now splintered in its search for a coherent plan, say political analysts and government opponents close to strike leaders.

"They have not had a clear strategy and now Chavez has passed from a defensive strategy to an offensive strategy," said Alberto Garrido, an author who has chronicled the Chavez presidency in several highly critical books. "He feels that the opposition is weak."

Leaders of the strike had hoped it would force Chavez from power. But on Saturday they scaled it back in the face of staggering economic losses for businesses that had once supported the walkout.

A referendum on Chavez's rule that the opposition had wanted was declared invalid by the Supreme Court last month, and negotiations between the government and opposition will at best lead to an election later this year that Chavez may very well win.

Publicly, opposition leaders said they are undaunted. Sunday, with staunchly anti-Chavez television stations providing day-long coverage, government opponents staged "El Firmazo," or the Big Sign-up -- a petition drive organized and funded by the opposition groups.

But instead of displaying unity and focusing on one realistic aim, the Democratic Coordinator asked Venezuelans to choose from among eight proposals, from cutting the president's term to abolishing a series of economic laws passed by Chavez.

The government, which has embarked on negotiations with the opposition over two electoral solutions proposed last month by former President Jimmy Carter, is expected to ignore the results of the petition drive.

"Today's Big Sign-Up is an emotional climax," said Garrido. "The Big Sign-Up is a way for the opposition to avoid recognizing that their strategy was wrong all along."

The discord in the anti-Chavez movement is also apparent in other steps members of the Democratic Coordinator have proposed. The First Justice Party, for instance, contends that there should be a movement for a citizen assembly to reconstitute the National Assembly, an unlikely proposition that has been harshly criticized by another Democratic Coordinator member, the Democratic Action party. One demand in the petition drive Sunday calls for the Chavez to resign, which he has consistently rejected, even when he was in a far weaker position.

Luis Vicente Leon, a political analyst and co-director of the Caracas polling firm, Datanalisis, said part of the problem is the scattershot approach employed by the opposition. "When they fail, try something else, and then something else and then something else," he said.

Michael Shifter, who closely tracks Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group, said he has told opposition leaders they should simply focus on a recall referendum for later this year, which could lead to Chavez's ouster. Though the opposition had once rejected the proposal, saying it was too far off, they are now open to the idea, which Chavez had long supported in public comments.

"Hopefully they will learn the lesson that they have to mount a long-term effort and do the political work to come up with the political support, to come up with an agenda," Shifter said from Washington.

Shifter said that the opposition simply "underestimated Chavez's determination to hang on and miscalculated."

"In that sense they are victims of their own strategy," he said.

Still, analysts close to Democratic Coordinator leaders said it will be difficult for them to formulate a clear strategy. The organization is made up of 40 groups, from traditional political parties, to business groups, a labor confederation and a former guerrilla group -- all with their own proposals.

"There are strong divisions," said Leon. "There is difficulty in coordinating a position, when there are radicals and moderates."

Leon and other analysts said they believe that a key for the opposition is choosing a candidate who is able to command attention and, once an election is called, take on Chavez. So far, though, no one challenger has emerged, and the latest Datanalisis poll in January shows that Chavez would most certainly win an election against a wide field of opponents, as currently exists.

Those who remain active in the anti-Chavez fight acknowledged the hardships.

At a Caracas school Sunday morning, with hundreds lining up to sign anti-Chavez petitions, Antonio Ponte, 32, said that he still held out hope even though he acknowledged the strike had not succeeded.

"Of course, it was a hard blow," said Ponte. "But look, there is still optimism. We are going to get rid of Chavez -- we do not know how -- but we are going to do it."

www.sanmateocountytimes.com112681155293,00.html Article Last Updated: Monday, February 03, 2003 - 12:27:30 PM MST By Juan Forero, New York Times

CARACAS, Venezuela -- Organized opposition to President Hugo Chavez edged closer Sunday to a fractious defeat, one day after leaders of a two-month-old general strike officially abandoned most of that protest because it was so unpopular and economically disastrous.

While thousands of Venezuelans turned out Sunday to sign petitions seeking Chavez's resignation, they have no legal effect and Chavez is expected to ignore them. And while anti-Chavez oil workers remain on strike, the government has managed to increase oil production in recent weeks, making their protest increasingly ineffective in Venezuela's most important industry.

"We have definitively defeated a new destabilizing aim, a new perverse, malevolent, criminal effort to sink Venezuela, sink the revolution, sink the government," Chavez told the nation Sunday in this weekly televised call-in show.

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• Bombers may go to Pacific
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The opposition, which had coalesced in recent months under an umbrella called the Democratic Coordinator to prod for Chavez's ouster, is now splintered in its search for a coherent plan, say political analysts and government opponents close to strike leaders.

"They have not had a clear strategy and now Chavez has passed from a defensive strategy to an offensive strategy," said Alberto Garrido, an author who has chronicled the Chavez presidency in several highly critical books. "He feels that the opposition is weak."

Leaders of the strike had hoped it would force Chavez from power. But on Saturday they scaled it back in the face of staggering economic losses for businesses that had once supported the walkout.

A referendum on Chavez's rule that the opposition had wanted was declared invalid by the Supreme Court last month, and negotiations between the government and opposition will at best lead to an election later this year that Chavez may very well win.

Publicly, opposition leaders said they are undaunted. Sunday, with staunchly anti-Chavez television stations providing day-long coverage, government opponents staged "El Firmazo," or the Big Sign-up -- a petition drive organized and funded by the opposition groups.

But instead of displaying unity and focusing on one realistic aim, the Democratic Coordinator asked Venezuelans to choose from among eight proposals, from cutting the president's term to abolishing a series of economic laws passed by Chavez.

The government, which has embarked on negotiations with the opposition over two electoral solutions proposed last month by former President Jimmy Carter, is expected to ignore the results of the petition drive.

"Today's Big Sign-Up is an emotional climax," said Garrido. "The Big Sign-Up is a way for the opposition to avoid recognizing that their strategy was wrong all along."

The discord in the anti-Chavez movement is also apparent in other steps members of the Democratic Coordinator have proposed. The First Justice Party, for instance, contends that there should be a movement for a citizen assembly to reconstitute the National Assembly, an unlikely proposition that has been harshly criticized by another Democratic Coordinator member, the Democratic Action party. One demand in the petition drive Sunday calls for the Chavez to resign, which he has consistently rejected, even when he was in a far weaker position.

Luis Vicente Leon, a political analyst and co-director of the Caracas polling firm, Datanalisis, said part of the problem is the scattershot approach employed by the opposition. "When they fail, try something else, and then something else and then something else," he said.

Michael Shifter, who closely tracks Venezuela for the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington policy group, said he has told opposition leaders they should simply focus on a recall referendum for later this year, which could lead to Chavez's ouster. Though the opposition had once rejected the proposal, saying it was too far off, they are now open to the idea, which Chavez had long supported in public comments.

"Hopefully they will learn the lesson that they have to mount a long-term effort and do the political work to come up with the political support, to come up with an agenda," Shifter said from Washington.

Shifter said that the opposition simply "underestimated Chavez's determination to hang on and miscalculated."

"In that sense they are victims of their own strategy," he said.

Still, analysts close to Democratic Coordinator leaders said it will be difficult for them to formulate a clear strategy. The organization is made up of 40 groups, from traditional political parties, to business groups, a labor confederation and a former guerrilla group -- all with their own proposals.

"There are strong divisions," said Leon. "There is difficulty in coordinating a position, when there are radicals and moderates."

Leon and other analysts said they believe that a key for the opposition is choosing a candidate who is able to command attention and, once an election is called, take on Chavez. So far, though, no one challenger has emerged, and the latest Datanalisis poll in January shows that Chavez would most certainly win an election against a wide field of opponents, as currently exists.

Those who remain active in the anti-Chavez fight acknowledged the hardships.

At a Caracas school Sunday morning, with hundreds lining up to sign anti-Chavez petitions, Antonio Ponte, 32, said that he still held out hope even though he acknowledged the strike had not succeeded.

"Of course, it was a hard blow," said Ponte. "But look, there is still optimism. We are going to get rid of Chavez -- we do not know how -- but we are going to do it."

ogj.pennnet.com Sam Fletcher Senior Writer

HOUSTON, Feb. 3 -- Energy futures prices were mixed Friday amid signs of increased oil production in Venezuela and possible postponement of military action against Iraq.

In a radio broadcast marking his fourth anniversary in office, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez claimed Sunday that Venezuela is now producing 1.8 million b/d of oil and 1 bcfd of natural gas. He also announced that 5,000 managers and technicians have been fired from Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), the national oil company, up from 3,000 previously.

Conflicting reports "There are conflicting reports as to actual production levels out of the country, but Venezuela still appears to be producing 1.7-2.2 million b/d below its capacity," said Tyler Dann, a Houston-based analyst with Banc of America Securities LLC, in a report issued last week. "Some industry observers have gone as far as to estimate that 400,000 b/d of (Venezuela's) production capacity has been eliminated," he added.

"Without a comprehensive resolution of the strike (preferably with Chávez out of power), refinery start ups and field rehabilitation work will likely be difficult to comprehensively execute," said Dann. "Future capacity rehabilitation (and) growth will likely be a function of western company involvement; our argument would be that, with Chávez still in power, this would be a tough sell to those companies."

Meanwhile, the Caracas-based online news service Petroleumworld.com, published on the internet, reported Monday that 5 million Venezuelans lined up Sunday to sign petitions to remove Chávez from office. Opposition leaders also said they were scaling back the 63-day general strike, with nonoil sectors of business returning to work Monday. They said they took that action in response to international requests and to demonstrate their willingness to negotiate a means of removing Chávez.

Energy prices The March contract for benchmark US light, sweet crudes lost 34¢ to $33.51/bbl Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the April position was down 22¢ to $32.74/bbl. The expiring February contract for heating oil plunged 2.17¢ to 95.88/gal. Unleaded gasoline for the same month dropped 1.13¢ to 97.56¢/gal.

However, the March natural gas contract inched up 2.2¢ to $5.61/Mcf on NYMEX "in a day of choppy trades and short covering ahead of the weekend," said analysts at Enerfax Daily.

"The market is still being driven by the weather and will probably remain somewhat volatile on conflicting mid-range forecasts (for colder weather through mid-February)," they said. "The concern is whether or not enough gas can be put in the ground over the summer. Inventories of natural gas storage have been drawn down substantially during the past month as frigid weather covered high-consumption areas in the Northeast. Last Thursday, the Energy Information Administration reported a 247 bcf withdrawal from storage—the third largest on record. The draw brought inventories down to 1.729 tcf, compared (with) a 5-year average of 1.919 tcf. However, a flat natural gas production profile and rising demand many predicting a $4.50(/Mcf) average price for 2003."

In London, the March contract for North Sea Brent oil lost 11¢ to $31.10/bbl on the International Petroleum Exchange. But the March natural gas contract gained 1.7¢ to the equivalent $2.81/Mcf on IPE.

The average price for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' basket of seven benchmark crudes gained 13¢ to $30.71/bbl Friday.

For the full week, however, the OPEC basket price averaged $30.29/bbl, down 52¢ from the previous week. So far this year, the OPEC basket price has averaged $30.34/bbl, compared with price averages of $24.36/bbl for all of 2002 and $23.12/bbl for 2001.

Contact Sam Fletcher at samf@ogjonline.com

www.voanews.com VOA News 03 Feb 2003, 16:28 UTC

Banks and stores in Venezuela have reopened Monday as a two-month general strike against President Hugo Chavez eases.

Many stores were shuttered after the opposition-led work stoppage began December 2. Banks, which were operating on a limited schedule, resumed normal operations today.

On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets to support an opposition-led signature drive calling for early elections.

At least four people were injured when Chavez supporters hurled stones and other objects at petition tables in Caracas. Two vehicles belonging to news organizations were also damaged.

To begin a constitutional amendment process, organizers need to gather signatures from 15 percent of the electorate, or about 1.8 million people.

The opposition says it gathered four million signatures. Their claim could not be independently verified.

In his weekly national address Sunday, President Chavez claimed victory over his opponents, describing them as terrorists and coup plotters. The opposition says the labor action will continue in the country's vital oil industry. The strike had practically halted Venezuela's normal oil production of about three million barrels per day.

The government says oil production is now at nearly two million barrels per day.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 02.03.03, 12:45 PM ET By Pascal Fletcher CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Mild-mannered, bespectacled and wearing a sober business suit, Luis Pacheco seems an unlikely "terrorist." The former Planning Director of Venezuela's strike-hit oil giant PDVSA is one of more than 5,000 employees summarily fired by President Hugo Chavez for staging a nine-week walkout in the world's No. 5 oil exporter. Since the strike began last Dec. 2, gripping Venezuela's oil industry, it has triggered an economic emergency for Chavez. The firebrand left-wing president is now noisily demanding trial and jail terms for the PDVSA strikers he vilifies daily as "terrorists," "saboteurs" and "subversives." After 21 years working for state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) and one of the biggest oil companies in the world, this torrent of abuse is hard to swallow for Pacheco and his colleagues, whose strike aims to force Chavez to hold early elections. "We look in the mirror ... and I think we all have clear consciences," Pacheco told Reuters in an interview. "We haven't carried out sabotage operations, we're not terrorists, we're not on television insulting everyone, we've tried to carry this through with the same dignity with which we've lived the rest of our lives," he added. Already the target of a government campaign to seek revenge against the strikers, Pacheco and other PDVSA strikers now face the prospect of continuing the strike alone, after opposition leaders said Sunday they were lifting the stoppage in non-oil sectors. Outside of the oil sector, support for the strike had already crumbled as shops, businesses and restaurants reopened to avert the threat of bankruptcy after sacrificing Christmas sales. But there was no turning back for the PDVSA strikers, who have vowed to stick it out until Chavez agrees to call elections. "I can't say that I'm not worried about us all ending up as scapegoats," said Pacheco, who was informed of his firing by an official PDVSA advertisement published in newspapers. Opposition leaders have demanded that the sacked PDVSA employees be reinstated as part of any agreement.

"NO AMNESTY" But Chavez, a former paratrooper who survived a coup attempt in April backed by many of the current PDVSA dissidents, has repeatedly ruled out an amnesty and ordered a legal offensive against the oil strikers he blames for wrecking the economy. "PDVSA has got to carry on not just firing (the strikers) but also taking them to court ... and taking away their pensions," Chavez said on Sunday. Six years before winning a 1998 election, he himself staged a botched 1992 coup that landed him in jail for two years, an event that also launched his political career. "We can't show weakness," the outspoken populist leader said. Since the strike began nine weeks ago, he has taken to calling himself "Commander Oil," and now gives regular reports on official levels of production, refining and export operations. Chavez also insists he has defeated the strike. Underpinning the president's confidence are signs that oil output and exports are steadily creeping back up after the government used troops and personnel loyal to the government to restart wells, ports and refineries. The president said Sunday that production was fast approaching two million barrels per day (bpd), around two thirds of pre-strike levels. The PDVSA strikers put output at 1.2 million bpd, but they concede that it is on the rise. PDVSA President Ali Rodriguez, himself a former communist guerrilla, has said the strike gave the government the chance to regain control of the oil company, purge it of "unpatriotic" employees and turn it into a vehicle for state revenue collection as a pillar of Chavez's self-styled "Bolivarian revolution."

IDEOLOGICAL CLASH But Pacheco rejects this objective as ideologically obsolete and flawed in practice. "The ideological model which says that I must distribute the income that oil produces is a model that creates poverty," he said. He said this would reverse PDVSA's modern role as a market-orientated generator of wealth and economic activity. Pacheco also dismissed Chavez's assertion that he was strengthening national control over PDVSA by sacking the strikers he says are in cahoots with transnational oil firms. "You can't make the industry any more Venezuelan. It is already Venezuelan. The only thing Chavez is doing is saying 'This industry belongs to me, to my government,"' he added. Chavez also said over the weekend that foreign exchange restrictions to be introduced this week would give his government discretional control over the country's dollar revenues. "Instead of giving dollars to speculators, terrorists and saboteurs, we'll be giving them to state companies," he said in a stern warning to his opponents in the private sector. However, Pacheco and his fired PDVSA colleagues seem certain to remain at the center of ongoing negotiations, backed by the international community, to end the Venezuelan conflict. Proposals for a political deal on elections put forth by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter also include a clause which foresees "no reprisals" against the PDVSA strikers. But in an apparent concession to the government, Carter also suggested that strikers found guilty of "sabotage and other crimes" should be punished under the law. Distinguishing between legitimate strikers and "saboteurs" may prove a thorny issue for the government and opposition alike. While they know some of them may never return to their jobs at PDVSA, Pacheco and his colleagues are unrepentant. "Our position is painful and costly but worth it ... (Chavez) may be able to recover oil production, but he can't recover the confidence of the country," Pacheco said. (Reporting by Pascal Fletcher, edited by Gary Crosse; Reuters Messaging pascal.fletcher.reuters.com@reuters.net 58-212-277-2656, pascal.fletcher@reuters.com)