news.ft.com By Andy Webb-Vidal in Caracas Published: February 3 2003 21:01 | Last Updated: February 4 2003 1:39

Venezuela's opposition alliance claimed on Monday to have collected 4m signatures supporting fresh legal attempts to remove President Hugo Chávez from office, marking the symbolic end of a two-month strike that has failed to unseat him.

Among a range of options, the petition aims to press for a constitutional amendment that would shorten Mr Chávez's mandate and allow early elections, and to appeal for a referendum to end his four-year rule. Hundreds of thousands of Chávez opponents gathered at makeshift polling centres on Sunday for what the so-called Democratic Co-ordinator called the "Big Sign-up".

The new initiatives will have to overcome a series of hurdles, such as approval by a yet-to-be-appointed electoral board and challenges by the government in the courts and the national assembly. But it could be months before the initiative bears fruit, if at all.

José Vicente Rangel, the vice-president, said yesterday that he saw no reason to believe that the electoral authority should validate the petition and that the government had already ruled out early elections.

A petition filed last November for a non-binding consultative referendum on whether Mr Chávez should resign, slated for Sunday, was in effect ruled unconstitutional by the supreme court, which opponents allege is tightly controlled by the president.

Diplomats from a six- nation "Group of Friends" - Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Portugal, Spain and the US - urged both sides at the weekend to end the conflict through talks under the auspices of César Gaviria, the secretary-general of the Organisation of American States.

Businesses not bankrupted by the two-month strike prepared to open for trade on Monday - tacit acknowledgment that the stoppage has failed to dislodge Mr Chávez, who might be even stronger today. But an employee strike at Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the engine of the world's fifth largest oil exporter, has wreaked huge damage on the economy.

Economists predict that Venezuela will face a contraction of between 10 and 20 per cent this year, coupled with inflation in excess of 50 per cent and a sharp rise in unemployment.

Alí RodrÍguez, the chairman of PDVSA, said loyal employees had managed to increase oil production to 1.5m barrels per day - half of pre-strike levels - and that the company would be back to near-normality by the end of this month. But dissident PDVSA managers, 5,600 of whom have been dismissed, say oil output is currently at just 1m b/ d and the government does not have the technical capability to lift it beyond 1.5m b/d.

world.scmp.com Tuesday, February 4, 2003

Opponents say 3.7 million have signed a petition for the president's term to be cut

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Caracas

   The Venezuelan opposition has officially declared an end to a 63-day general strike that has crippled the economy, but said a poll of voters' desire to see President Hugo Chavez's mandate cut had been an overwhelming success.

The petition is aimed at allowing opponents of the president to voice opinions about possible options for cutting short his term, which is scheduled to last until 2006.

Although the strike is formally ended, it will continue in the oil sector, according to opposition leaders, who say the struggle against the Chavez government is entering a new phase.

"The Democratic Co-ordinating Committee announced that tonight we are entering a long-expected and more trying new phase in our struggle," opposition spokesman Timoteo Zambrano said on Sunday night.

He said although the strike was ending, the protesters intended to stand by thousands of employees of Petroleos de Venezuela, the state-run oil company, who have been dismissed by the government. "Our struggle will now assume new forms, and we will pursue our goals at the negotiation table," Mr Zambrano said.

The strike has caused Venezuela billions of dollars in losses, largely because it slashed oil shipments from the world's fifth largest oil exporter.

Before the strike the oil sector produced 2.8 million barrels a day.

Mr Chavez said on Sunday that production had reached 1.8 million barrels a day and that the world's largest refinery, in Amuey, had come back on line. Oil prices fell in early London trading yesterday on news of an end to the general strike.

The price of reference Brent North Sea crude oil for March delivery dropped to US$30.77 (HK$240) at the close of trading on Friday. In New York, benchmark light sweet crude March-dated futures lost 34 US cents on Friday to US$33.51.

The Organisation of American States and former US president Jimmy Carter, meanwhile, have tried to bring the government and opposition to the negotiating table.

But clashes between Chavez supporters and police left at least five people injured as opponents queued to sign the non-binding petition aimed at cutting short his term. The opposition had garnered more than 3.7 million signatures, comfortably above expectations, leaders said.

A mid-term recall for Mr Chavez could come as early as August 19, and it is the only vote he has said repeatedly that he will accept if it is requested at the polls.

Thttp://biz.scmp.com/biztrans/ZZZMMTLYLBD.html uesday, February 4, 2003 JOSEPH LO

   For the second time in a little more than a year, the threat of a major war in the oil-rich Middle East hangs over the world with the potential to again derail the already ailing global airline industry.

Using history as a yardstick, that should mean a spike in oil prices is imminent. And, for airlines already trying to emerge from two years of global recession exacerbated by the costs of dealing with consumer fears over terrorism, an oil shock could spell further trouble.

This is scary stuff for an industry that has lost a combined US$31 billion throughout the world in the past two years. Put into perspective, that sum represents more than the total profit all International Air Transport Association (Iata) member airlines have earned since 1945.

Already, United States airlines have begun lobbying for government aid in case a war against Iraq should drag on, or evolve into a wider regional conflict throughout the Middle East.

Last week, the Air Transport Association, a coalition of the major US carriers (excluding major low-cost airlines), announced the results of a study which predicted jet fuel prices would jump by US$1 a barrel as a result of a prolonged conflict with Iraq.

At the same time, the association said international air traffic would drop by 10 per cent against the same period last year, a comparison made worse by the fact that air traffic last year was already in no great shape.

Traffic on transatlantic routes, which account for the bulk of revenue for many association airlines, would fall by 20 per cent, it said.

Yet its fears have to be looked at with a cynic's eye, especially from the vantage point of Asia.

The losses it and Iata cite do not include the US and European low-cost carriers, the strongest of which have never been stronger. Nor are they representative of the major Asian and Chinese carriers, which have recovered strongly from the past two years' global travails.

Cathay Pacific Airways, Singapore Airlines (SIA), Korean Airlines, and other Asian majors have all unveiled strong traffic figures for last year, pointing to a tremendously profitable financial year. And so far, while oil prices have edged higher since before Christmas, they have not spiked sharply.

Last week, the spot price for jet fuel in Singapore, Asia's biggest oil market, was a little more than US$35 a barrel, slightly above last year's high achieved in late autumn.

And jet fuel, while trading far above the average of the past decade, is still far from the US$45 plateau reached in late-2000, or during the Gulf War in 1991.

Investors, too, seem to be maintaining their cool. Shares in both SIA and Cathay are trading comfortably in the middle range of their cyclical bands.

Share prices for both airlines are well above their post-September 11, 2001, levels, as well as comfortably above their Gulf War depths, but below the historic highs they hit just before the slide began two years ago.

Meanwhile, there is no consensus amongst oil traders that war in Iraq will undermine global energy supplies any more so than political instability has in Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest oil exporting nation.

The hope is for a repeat of the events post-September 11, when oil prices spiked about the US$35 mark before quickly falling back to more sane levels near US$20 a barrel within weeks.

Another compelling reason for the lack of fear is the changing traffic paradigm for Asian carriers.

Travel within Asia has emerged as the strongest avenue of recovery since the bottom fell out of the global air travel market after the September 11 attacks in the US.

Even the terrorist attacks in Bali last year did little to quench the growing Asian appetite for travel, particularly outbound traffic from the mainland and South Korea.

And so, unless the US war on Iraq deepens into a lengthy conflict, let us look forward to another good year for Asia's airlines.

Kung hei fat choy.

joseph.lo@scmp.com

www.thestar.com Feb. 3, 2003. 06:17 PM

Jennifer Wells  Markets close higher on positive U.S. data Aerospace shares suffer losses in wake of shuttle disaster

Feb. 3, 2003. 06:17 PM MALCOLM MORRISON CANADIAN PRESS

Fresh hopes that the U.S. economy is on the mend sent stocks higher at the close today but buying was cautious ahead of when U.S. State Secretary Colin Powell address to the United Nations Wednesday about Iraq's weapons program.

Selling accelerated in the session's last hour, but the financial sector helped Toronto's S&P/TSX index to a 24.19-point gain at 6,593.68. Manulife Financial gained $1 to $35.99 and TD Bank added 82 cents to $33.

The TSX Venture Exchange rose 0.81 point to 1,117.96.

The Canadian dollar was up 0.20 cent at 65.92 cents (U.S.), a new seven-month closing high.

The Dow Jones industrial average retreated from a 99-point advance to end the day with a gain of 56.01 at 8,109.82.

The Nasdaq composite was ahead 2.88 points at 1,323.79 while the S&P 500 was up 4.62 at 860.32.

The Institute of Supply Management's index on the U.S. manufacturing sector came in at 53.9, down from 55.2 in December but higher than the expected reading of 53. An ISM index over 50 indicates expansion in the factory sector.

"I'd take today's report as another encouraging signal that manufacturing is turning the corner in the U.S.," said Doug Porter, senior economist with BMO Nesbitt Burns.

"This is a pretty important report because there had been some concern that business might be freezing up a bit ahead of a possible conflict with Iraq, and this report allays some of those fears and suggests the economy is still grinding forward."

The crash of the space shuttle Columbia weighed on aerospace stocks as investors worried that a suspension of the NASA program could hurt its prime contractors.

Boeing descended 48 cents to $31.11 (U.S.) and Lockheed Martin was down $1.50 to $49.55 (U.S.). Boeing and Lockheed are the program's principal contractors.

Alliant Tech Systems, which makes the shuttle's solid rocket boosters, fell $6.34 to $48.02 (U.S.).

In Toronto, shares of MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates, responsible for the shuttle's Canadarm robotic arm, dropped 75 cents to $22.59.

The Toronto and New York markets observed two minutes of silence to remember the seven astronauts who died.

Some positive earnings news contributed to today's market upturn, as did a slippage in the price of crude oil as the strike in Venezuela eased.

However, as a mixed fourth-quarter earnings season nears its close under the shadow of war in Iraq, analysts say investors see little reason to commit themselves to stocks.

The energy sector in Toronto rose even as the price of crude in New York slipped 75 cents to $32.78 (U.S.) per barrel. Petro-Canada climbed 81 cents to $51.81.

The big oilpatch news came just after the market closed when Canadian Oil Sands announced it has struck a deal to buy 10 per cent of the Syncrude oilsands joint venture from EnCana for nearly $1.1 billion.

EnCana also gave Canadian Oil Sands an option to buy its remaining 3.75 per cent share of Syncrude for about $417 million. EnCana shares had ended the day up 20 cents at $48, while Canadian Oil Sands units were unchanged at $38.90.

The price of gold advanced $2.50 to $370.80 (U.S.) an ounce in New York.

Kinross Gold was off 50 cents to $10.51 on its first day of trading as a new entity. On Friday, shareholders of Echo Bay Mines and TVX Gold approved their merger with Kinross.

Other active Toronto stocks included Nortel Networks, ahead 10 cents to $3.70.

CAE Inc. lost 10 cents to $4.98 after it said it has sold two full flight simulators for $35 million, one to Air France and the other to China Eastern Airlines.

Bombardier gained 20 cents to $5.32 after it announced a $394-million order for 73 trains from the French National Railways.

Corel Corp. nearly tripled its loss to $27.8 million (U.S.) in the fourth quarter amid restructuring charges and asset writedowns. Shares in the software maker were off two cents at $1.23.

Biovail gained $1.28 to $44.88 after it announced positive results for its Metform GR medication for diabetics.

Stornoway Ventures and Northern Empire Minerals soared on Canada's junior stock exchange after discovering diamonds on Melville Peninsula in Nunavut.

Stornoway stock rocketed 64 cents to $1.06 on the TSX Venture Exchange, while Empire Minerals rose 60 cents to $1.10.

On the main TSX market, declines beat advances 546 to 515 with 237 unchanged.

Volume was 153.7 million shares worth $1.87 billion.

The Nasdaq Canada index slipped 0.40 point to 227.01.

sg.biz.yahoo.com Tuesday February 4, 3:38 AM (MORE) Dow Jones Newswires 02-03-03 1422ET

Venezuela Jan Oil Exports At 406,00 Billion/D - Ex-PdVSA Staff -2

CARACAS -(Dow Jones)- Venezuela's crude oil output has risen to 1.22 million barrels per day (b/d) Monday, compared with around 1.10 million b/d over the weekend, dissident staff of state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela (E.PVZ) said in their daily report.

The biggest share of the production is in the eastern part of the country where 852,000 b/d is being produced. Another 200,000 b/d on top of the current 852,000 b/d could be produced in the east in the coming weeks, dissident PdVSA staff have said.

Production in the west stood at 280,000 b/d, while in the southern region 90,000 b/d were being produced, down from 92,000 the previous week.

According to dissident staff, the average of January oil exports stood at only 406,00 b/d of which 50,000 b/d was shipped to Cuba. Venezuela has a deal with Cuba under which it delivers crude and products under preferential financial terms. Various industry sources said Monday current oil exports stand at around 500,000 (b/d) while it puts away another 300,000 b/d at several storage facilities in the Caribbean.

Estimates about Venezuela's oil production remain all over the charts:

Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez was quoted as saying in a newspaper interview over the weekend that exports stood at around 550,000 b/d. On Sunday, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said production was at 1.78 million b/d and that he expected production to exceed 2 million b/d this week when four extra-heavy crude projects in the Orinoco belt are set to being operating.

Venezuela is in its tenth week of a nationwide strike that has hampered oil production and exports. The strike is aimed at forcing President Hugo Chavez to resign. Chavez has refused to step down and has vowed to revamp PdVSA.

Refining activities remained mostly unchanged. One of the crude units of the El Palito refinery, which has a capacity of 120,000 b/d, is producing around 110,000 b/d, although full operations haven't been restored yet, dissident PdVSA staff have said. The Paraguana refinery complex which has a capacity of 940,000 b/d is producing around 80,000 b/d. The 200,000 b/d Puerto La Cruz refinery is operating at 80% of its capacity, according to dissident staff.

-By Fred Pals, Dow Jones Newswires; 58 212 564 1339; fred.palsdowjones.com