www.thestar.com.my

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - President Hugo Chavez threatened to revoke the broadcasting licenses of Venezuela's main TV and radio stations, accusing them of supporting opposition efforts to overthrow him through a six-week-old strike.

Chavez said Sunday the stations were abusing their power by constantly broadcasting opposition advertisements promoting the strike, which has dried up oil revenue in the world's No. 5 oil exporter but hasn't rattled the president's resolve to stay in power.

Venezuela's main television stations have not broadcast any commercials during the strike except the opposition ads.

Media owners say they adopted that stance because Chavez incites his supporters to attack reporters.

"They are worse than an atomic bomb,'' Chavez said during his weekly radio and television show Sunday. "If they continue to use their licenses to try to break the country or oust the government, I would be obligated to revoke it.''

He spoke as tens of thousands of his opponents marched on Los Proceres park outside the Fort Tiuna military base in Caracas, seeking military support for the strike.

Troops lobbed tear gas at the protesters but they quickly regrouped, shouting "cowards'' at hundreds of soldiers facing them with armored personnel carriers.

Troops also kept back dozens of Chavez supporters protesting nearby.

The first marchers to arrive at Los Proceres park, which is outside the Fort Tiuna military base, stomped down barbed wire blocking the entrance, but they did not try to break past security lines.

Hector Castillo, a photographer for the local newspaper El Mundo, was injured by rubber bullets that some soldiers fired into the air, Caracas Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno said. Eighteen other people were treated for tear-gas asphyxiation, he said.

The park is one of eight security zones in Caracas decreed by Chavez. Protests are banned in those areas unless authorized by the Defense Ministry.

The military - purged of dissidents after a brief April coup - has supported Chavez during the strike, with troops seizing oil tankers, commandeering gasoline trucks and locking striking workers out of oil installations.

Top commanders have professed their loyalty to the government.

In Colombia, Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton dismissed the possibility that Venezuela was heading toward civil war.

"To have a civil war, two (sides) are needed, and the government doesn't want that,'' Chaderton told The Associated Press.

"We are not preparing ourselves for civil war but to preserve peace and reconciliation.''

Venezuela's largest labor confederation, business chamber and opposition parties began the strike Dec. 2 to demand that Chavez resign or call early elections if he loses a nonbinding referendum on his rule.

The National Elections Council scheduled the referendum for Feb. 2 after accepting an opposition petition signed by 2 million people.

Chavez says the vote would be unconstitutional, and his supporters have challenged it in the Supreme Court.

He was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, and his term ends in 2007. Venezuela's constitution allows a recall referendum halfway through a president's term - August, in Chavez's case.

Chaderton said the government would consider providing funds for the vote if the Supreme Court upheld it.

"An opposition that contributes ... to strangling the country's economy and calls for tax evasion ... is demanding funds for a vote. How curious,'' he said.

"But at an opportune time, after the judicial institutions make their decision, we will decide.''

Opponents accuse the president of running roughshod over democratic institutions and wrecking the economy with leftist policies.

The opposition has staged dozens of street marches, called for a tax boycott and held a two-day bank strike last week.

Chavez accuses opponents of trying to provoke a coup.

He has fought the strike by firing 1,000 workers from the state oil monopoly, where some 30,000 of 40,000 workers are off the job.

The strike, which is strongest in the oil industry, has caused fuel shortages and is costing the country an estimates US$70 million a day.

The country's crude output is estimated at about 400,000 barrels a day, compared with the pre-strike level of 3 million barrels.

Exports are a fifth of the 2.5 million barrels a day the country usually produces.

In Vienna for a meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez vowed production would be 2.5 million barrels a day by mid-February. - AP

www.sfgate.com ALEXANDRA OLSON, Associated Press Writer Sunday, January 12, 2003

(01-12) 19:38 PST CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --

Soldiers lobbed tear gas at tens of thousands of Venezuelans marching on a park near a military base to demand the armed forces' support in the ongoing strike against President Hugo Chavez. Nineteen people were injured, including one photographer who was hit by rubber bullets.

Opposition protesters regrouped as the gas clouds lifted, shouting "cowards" at hundreds of soldiers facing them with armored personnel carriers. Troops also kept back dozens of Chavez supporters protesting nearby.

The first marchers to arrive at Los Proceres park, which is outside the Fort Tiuna military base, stomped down barbed wire blocking the entrance, but they did not try to break past security lines.

Hector Castillo, a photographer for the local newspaper El Mundo, was injured by rubber bullets that some soldiers fired into the air, Caracas Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno said. Eighteen other people were treated for asphyxiation, he said.

The park is one of eight security zones in Caracas as decreed by Chavez. Protests are banned in those areas unless authorized by the defense ministry.

"All of this show of force is absurd," said Henrique Capriles, the opposition mayor of an eastern Caracas district. "People are tired of being assaulted and repressed."

The military -- purged of dissidents after a brief April coup -- has supported Chavez during the strike, which has paralyzed the world's fifth-largest oil exporter but has not rattled the president's resolve to stay in power.

Troops have seized oil tankers, commandeered gasoline trucks and locked striking workers out of oil installations. Top commanders have professed their loyalty to the government.

Speaking in his weekly radio and television address on Sunday, Chavez dismissed opponents as "fascists" manipulated by the media.

He also dismissed Infrastructure Minister Eliecer Hurtado, a retired general, and replaced him with Diosdado Cabello, the current interior minister. Chavez did not explain the change or say who would head the interior ministry, which commands the federal and secret police forces.

Venezuela's main television stations are not broadcasting any commercials except opposition advertisements promoting the strike. Media owners say they have been pushed into this stance because Chavez incites followers to attack reporters.

Chavez threatened to revoke the broadcasting licenses of television and radio stations if they "continue with their irrational insistence on destabilizing the country by supporting this fascist subversion."

Venezuela's largest labor confederation, business chamber and opposition parties began the strike Dec. 2 to demand that Chavez resign and call early elections if he loses a nonbinding referendum on his rule.

The National Elections Council scheduled the referendum for Feb. 2 after accepting an opposition petition signed by 2 million people.

Chavez says the vote would be unconstitutional, and his supporters have challenged it in the Supreme Court. He was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, and his term ends in 2007. Venezuela's constitution allows a recall referendum halfway through a president's term -- August, in Chavez's case.

Opponents accuse the president of running roughshod over democratic institutions and wrecking the economy with leftist policies. The opposition has staged dozens of street marches, called for a tax boycott and held a two-day bank strike last week.

Chavez has threatened to order troops to seize food production plants that are participating in the strike and to fire or jail striking teachers and have soldiers take over their duties.

He already has fired 1,000 oil workers after some 30,000 of 40,000 workers joined the strike, which has caused fuel shortages and slowed oil exports to a trickle.

The strike is costing the country an estimated $70 million a day.

On Jan. 3, Chavez supporters and opponents clashed while police fired tear gas to keep the sides apart during an opposition march on Los Proceres. Two Chavez supporters died after being shot and at least 78 others were injured, five with gunshot wounds. It was unclear who fired on marchers.

Police also intervened Saturday when Chavez supporters blocked the route of a planned opposition march through the streets of Maracay, the military's nerve center, and on Margarita island off Venezuela's coast.

In Colombia, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton dismissed the possibility that his country was heading toward civil war.

"To have a civil war, two (sides) are needed, and the government doesn't want that," Chaderton told The Associated Press. "We are not preparing ourselves for civil war but to preserve peace and reconciliation."

The country's crude output is estimated at about 400,000 barrels a day, compared with the pre-strike level of 3 million barrels. Exports are a fifth of the 2.5 million barrels a day the country usually produces.

The country's $100 billion economy shrank an estimated 8 percent in 2002, largely due to constant political instability. Inflation has surpassed 30 percent while unemployment reaches 17 percent.

Negotiations sponsored by the Organization of American States have produced few results.

economictimes.indiatimes.com REUTERS[ MONDAY, JANUARY 13, 2003 08:31:31 AM ]

SINGAPORE: Oil prices held steady on Monday, shrugging off Opec's weekend pact to raise supplies as being too little, too late to lift wafer-thin US fuel stocks anytime soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in Vienna on Sunday to increase official production limits by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to compensate for six weeks of losses in strike-bound Venezuelan supplies.

US light crude tumbled almost 50 cents in early trade to an intraday low at $31.20 a barrel, but quickly recovered to stand six cents down at $31.62 at 9:45 PM EST Sunday.

Analysts said prices were little changed as traders saw no short-term relief for US crude inventories, which are hovering just above 26-year lows as the stoppage in Venezuelan exports eats into supplies to the world's biggest oil consumer.

Oil from Middle East suppliers takes four to six weeks to reach US shores, while Venezuelan supplies, which account for 13 per cent of US imports, arrive in about five days.

"There are delays in getting oil from the Middle East to the United States, plus Opec's agreement is for 1.5 million barrels per day, but prior to the strike Venezuela production was about 2.5 million," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney

"The global market is going to remain tight and with ongoing war fears, you've got to be pretty brave to sell oil at the moment," said Thurtell.

Alarm Bells

The Middle East-dominated cartel fears an oil price shock if a US-led war in Iraq should come before Venezuelan supplies are restored.

Venezuela, Opec's third-biggest producer, is fifth in world exporter rankings, while Iraq sells up to two million bpd overseas, which could be disrupted if war breaks out.

The strike and the looming threat of war pushed US crude to a two-year high at $33.65 at the end of December, setting off alarm bells that a run of high energy bills would damage the fragile global economy.

Opec President Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Sunday Opec would meet again if Venezuela restores full production. Opec has scheduled an ordinary ministerial meeting for March 11.

Opec's agreement brings the cartel's official production ceiling for its 10 members bound by quotas to 24.5 million bpd. Iraq sells oil under the United Nations' oil-for-food programme and is excluded from Opec's quota system.

Analysts saw little chance of prices heading below $30 despite the additional Opec crude. Actual new oil to hit the world's 76 million bpd market would be limited, they said.

Opec's latest increase was divided pro-rata among members, meaning Venezuela was also granted its share of the higher output limit despite the strike, which entered its 43rd day on Monday and has slashed oil exports to roughly one-fifth, or 500,000 bpd.

Many others in Opec have little, or no, spare capacity to bump up production.

"I certainly see oil staying above $30 until the Venezuelan situation is sorted out," said Paul Ashby, oil and gas analyst at ABN Amro in Sydney.

www.guardian.co.uk Mark Milner and Charlotte Denny Monday January 13, 2003 The Guardian

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries last night handed a lifeline to the struggling global economy with a deal to raise output and keep a lid on the oil price.

The producers' cartel agreed to increase production by about 1.5m barrels a day at an emergency meeting held in Vienna yesterday - an increase of 7%.

"We hope the agreement will produce a reasonable price for consumers and send a very strong message to the market to prevent panic," Opec president Abdullah al-Attiyah said after the deal was announced.

With the oil price over $30 a barrel as a result of fears of a US-led attack on Iraq and the long-running strike in Venezuela which has disrupted supplies from the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, markets had been watching keenly for a deal.

"Opec has proved responsive, and that's good news for the world economy," said Peter Gignoux at investment bank Salomon Schroder.

Although the agreement - which was at the top end of expectations - will ease the pressure, analysts noted that the promised increase is below the estimated 2m barrels a day shortfall caused by the problems in Venezuela.

The deal to raise output levels will bring relief to both global economic policymakers and motorists.

Petrol pump prices are not directly linked to the spot market price of oil, but a sustained movement in the price does eventually feed through to garage forecourts.

With the world's leading economies struggling for growth there had been concern that a sharp increase in the oil price could stall the global financial system.

Opec's position is crucial, because although it accounts for less than half global oil output most of the world's spare capacity lies within its ranks, particularly in Saudi Arabia.

The cartel has effectively acknowledged for some time that higher prices and a corresponding downturn in the global economy are not in its own best interests. It has set a target range of between $22 and $28 a barrel, well below the $33 seen recently.

Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi played down supply concerns, saying: "There is no shortage. We never allowed the shortage to take place."

The Saudi minister said that his country would able to raise output to 10m barrels a day - about 2m above the average for December - within two weeks, although maintaining production at a higher level would take longer.

However, the Opec production agreement does not mean that prices are likely to fall back sharply in the short term.

An assault on Iraq would cut global production by about 2m barrels a day, and it is far from clear how soon Venezuela will be able restore pre-strike output levels.

Although the country's oil minister says that output is still running at 800,000 barrels a day and could be back to 2.5m barrels by the middle of next month, many analysts believe that his views are overly optimistic.

"The oil market is still tight," says Gary Ross, chief executive of the American consultancy, Pira Energy.

"This [deal] will provide some relief, but the extra will not arrive until the end of the first quarter."

Analysis www.infobrazil.com by John Fitzpatrick          Jan 11 - 17, 2003

John Fitzpatrick is an occasional guest Editor on InfoBrazil. He is a Scottish Journalist who first visited Brazil in 1987 and has been based in São Paulo since 1995. His 27-year career in journalism includes stints as a Reporter in Scotland and England, Deputy Editor of an English-language daily newspaper in Cyprus, News Editor of a radio station in Switzerland, Financial Correspondent in Zurich and São Paulo, and Editor of a magazine published by one of Switzerland's largest banks. He currently runs Celtic Comunicações, a São Paulo company which specializes in editorial and translation services for Brazilian and foreign clients.

No sooner had Fernando Henrique Cardoso handed over the presidential sash to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on New Year's Day – knocking his own glasses off in the excitement as he did so – than he headed for the airport and set off for Paris. The haste with which he left Brasilia makes one wonder whether he knows something the rest of us don't.

Perhaps his abrupt departure after eight years may have been meant to show the Brazilian people that they are on their own now, with Lula and his team. Since it is unlikely that Lula would seek any advice from his predecessor, it may not matter that Cardoso practically fled. But the manner in which he departed leaves a rather sour taste in the mouth.

We are now in the hands of Lula, and for the sake of Brazil let us hope he learns fast because the honeymoon is over. Electors will no longer be satisfied with the ear-to-ear grins and the tearful descriptions of his life and hard times, with which he has been regaling them since his victory in October.

Behind the scenes, the Worker's Party (PT) team has been busy assembling a government. This is obviously a complex process and appears to have been handled fairly well. At the same time, failing to win over the PMDB, the largest party in the Congress, was a setback. However, the PMDB is as greedy for power as any other party, and this door has not been completely slammed shut. In the months to come we will start seeing shifting political alliances, as the familiar mosaic of Brazilian politics shapes and reshapes itself.

Despite the grouping of disparate parties in his election coalition, Lula's government is top heavy with PT members. The key ministers have started outlining their priorities in line with the PT's electoral programme. The focus will be on ending social inequality although with no drastic moves, such as defaulting on international or domestic debt obligations. Finance Minister Antonio Palocci has said the right things and pledged to reform the scandalous situation in which millions of former civil servants, some only in their 40s or early 50s, enjoy generous inflation-linked pensions, mainly paid for by those in the private sector, who have no such cushion to fall back on.

In the first few days of the new administration we have already seen some changes. For example, the state-owned oil company Petrobras, the largest company in South America, has had its board shaken up. The new company president is a PT senator from the Northeast, and new company board members include Finance Minister Palocci and Lula's Chief of Staff and campaign strongman, José Dirceu. Moves have already been made to reduce the effects of oil price increases on the final consumer by tinkering with taxes. To be fair here, even the Cardoso government interfered in Petrobras pricing policies at times, although it left the company in the hands of professionals rather than politicians.

The new energy minister has spoken against further privatizations in the sector, and of the need for more investment and lower prices. The defence minister announced that Lula had suspended for a year a multi-million dollar contract to renew the air force fleet of fighter planes. According to the minister, priority would be given to fighting hunger.

So far so good, but your correspondent is still apprehensive and a bit fearful of what lies ahead. Lula is untried as a national – as opposed to a party – leader, and we do not know how he will cope with the constant crises that mark Brazil and the day-to-day political bargaining in Congress. One must hope Lula will stick to the script, and let his team, which appears to be fairly competent, get on with things. The problem is that Lula has little patience for the ins and outs of politics, and seems incapable of sticking to a script. An example of the Lula style was the casual manner in which he announced the name of his finance minister during a visit to Washington in December. This was the key appointment, eagerly awaited in Brazil, yet Lula tossed it out to some journalists as though he was making a banal comment on the weather.

The inaugural ceremony itself showed the perils of this informality. By bussing in hundreds of thousands of supporters from all over the country, the PT enlivened the dreary avenues and concrete squares of Brasilia, but gave the security forces a headache they could have done without. Lula's open-top car was soon swamped by well wishers, one of whom even managed to jump inside and give Lula a hug. Later, even when the security had been beefed up, a young woman still managed to get through and Lula posed for a picture with her. Presumably one of the bodyguards took the picture.

During the inaugural ceremony in the Congress a Senator from the Northeast, whose constitutional role was to wind up the ceremony, started speaking off the cuff and congratulated Lula, who was born in the Northeast, as though they were in a bar. None of this mattered to Lula who said at one point? “Vamos quebrar o protocolo mas nem tanto.” (“We'll break with protocol but not too much.”)

Afterwards, Lula allowed every Tom, Dick and Harry congressman to give him a hug and slap on the back and even gave autographs. One wonders what Fernando Henrique Cardoso was thinking as he watched this display, while awaiting the arrival of Lula at the Planalto Palace to receive the sash of office. OK, it was Lula's big day but he will soon have to stop being a man of the people and become the leader of the people.

Finally, it was disappointing to see that no major democratic leader took the pains to turn up at the ceremony. If George Bush was busy planning to invade Iraq, then why did he not send his vice-president? In recent years the French, German and British government leaders have all visited Brazil and pledged to support the country's maturing democracy and efforts to get a fairer deal in international trade. But where were they on New Year's Day?

At least the American Trade Secretary, Robert Zoellick, the man Brazilians love to hate, attended. The result of this pitiful turnout was that two high-profile despots, Fidel Castro of Cuba and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, were the main ”guests of honour.” A sorry sight indeed when, for the first day since the return to democracy in Brazil, one elected president passed power over to another elected president.                                

Related sites: Official transition website, created by the Worker's Party to provide details of the transition process (Portuguese only) transicao.lula.org.br