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MONDAY, JANUARY 13

HOLIDAYS

Japan (Coming of Age Day - No major events scheduled)

OPEC LIFTS PRODUCTION TO TAME OIL PRICES

OPEC on Sunday agreed to raise production to stave off

an

oil price shock threatened by a strike in Venezuela and

war in Iraq. Oil prices held steady in Asia on Monday as

the hike was seen as too little, too late. For more,   

double click on [nSP130797]. N/A - G10 CENTRAL BANKERS HOLD REGULAR BIS MEETING, Basel

Group of 10 central bankers hold a regular meeting at

the

Bank for International Settlements. 0930 - UK DECEMBER

PRODUCER PRICES, London

November input prices fell 3.4 percent on the month and

0.9 percent on the year while output prices slipped 0.2

percent on the month and gained 1.2 percent on the year.

Final M0 money supply for December is also due. N/A  -

GERMAN NOVEMBER INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX

Industrial output fell 1.3 percent on the month in

October and 1.4 percent on the year. 1700 - ECB CHIEF

ECONOMIST ISSING SPEAKS, Frankfurt

Otmar Issing makes closing speech at forum for

international financial journalists.

DEBT AUCTIONS

Italian Treasury auctions 3-, 5- and 30-year fixed rate

bonds paying coupons of 3.5, 3.5 and 5.75 percent

respectively. Subscriptions close at 1000 GMT.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 14 N/A - JAPAN CABINET MEETING, Tokyo

 Cabinet meeting followed by minister's regular news

 conferences, including Finance Minister Masajuro

Shiokawa

 and Trade Minister Takeo Hiranuma. N/A  - WORLD BANK

PRESIDENT VISITS TOKYO

James Wolfensohn visits Tokyo from January 14-17. 2350

(Mon) - JAPAN DECEMBER MONEY SUPPLY, BANK LENDING, Tokyo.

The Bank of Japan releases December money supply and

bank

lending data. Money supply rose 3.2 percent in November

from a year earlier, while bank lending fell 4.7

percent. 0000 - JAPAN ECONOMICS MINISTER TAKENAKA IN AUSTRALIA, Canberra

Japan's Economics and Financial Services Minister Heizo

Takenaka speaks at the Australian National University.

0500 - JAPAN NOVEMBER MACHINERY ORDERS, Tokyo

Core machinery orders fell 4.1 percent in October from

September.

DEBT AUCTIONS 0120 - Japan's Ministry of Finance offers

one-year Treasury

bills, results announced 0340 GMT. 0130 - Japan's MOF

announces issue amount of 30-year JGBs.

Debt calendar                        [D/DIARY]

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www.morningstar.ca 12 Jan 03(10:19 PM) |  E-mail Article to a Friend

By Tanya Pang

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Monday, shrugging off OPEC's weekend pact to raise supplies as being too little, too late to lift wafer-thin U.S. fuel stocks anytime soon.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed at an emergency meeting in Vienna on Sunday to increase official production limits by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) to compensate for six weeks of losses in strike-bound Venezuelan supplies.

U.S. light crude tumbled almost 50 cents in early trade to an intraday low at $31.20 a barrel, but quickly recovered to stand six cents down at $31.62 at 0245 GMT.

Analysts said prices were little changed as traders saw no short-term relief for U.S. crude inventories, which are hovering just above 26-year lows as the stoppage in Venezuelan exports eats into supplies to the world's biggest oil consumer.

Oil from Middle East suppliers takes four to six weeks to reach U.S. shores, while Venezuelan supplies, which account for 13 percent of U.S. imports, arrive in about five days.

"There are delays in getting oil from the Middle East to the United States, plus OPEC's agreement is for 1.5 million barrels per day, but prior to the strike Venezuela production was about 2.5 million," said David Thurtell, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney

"The global market is going to remain tight and with ongoing war fears, you've got to be pretty brave to sell oil at the moment," said Thurtell.

ALARM BELLS

The Middle East-dominated cartel fears an oil price shock if a U.S.-led war in Iraq should come before Venezuelan supplies are restored.

Venezuela, OPEC's third-biggest producer, is fifth in world exporter rankings, while Iraq sells up to two million bpd overseas, which could be disrupted if war breaks out.

The strike and the looming threat of war pushed U.S. crude to a two-year high at $33.65 at the end of December, setting off alarm bells that a run of high energy bills would damage the fragile global economy.

OPEC President Abdullah al-Attiyah said on Sunday OPEC would meet again if Venezuela restores full production. OPEC has scheduled an ordinary ministerial meeting for March 11.

OPEC's agreement brings the cartel's official production ceiling for its 10 members bound by quotas to 24.5 million bpd. Iraq sells oil under the United Nations' oil-for-food program and is excluded from OPEC's quota system.

Analysts saw little chance of prices heading below $30 despite the additional OPEC crude. Actual new oil to hit the world's 76 million bpd market would be limited, they said.

OPEC's latest increase was divided pro-rata among members, meaning Venezuela was also granted its share of the higher output limit despite the strike, which entered its 43rd day on Monday and has slashed oil exports to roughly one-fifth, or 500,000 bpd.

Many others in OPEC have little, or no, spare capacity to bump up production.

"I certainly see oil staying above $30 until the Venezuelan situation is sorted out," said Paul Ashby, oil and gas analyst at ABN Amro in Sydney.

www.washingtonpost.com Reuters Monday, January 13, 2003; Page A16

CARACAS, Venezuela, Jan. 12 -- Venezuelan troops fired tear gas today to disperse tens of thousands of protesters as President Hugo Chavez ordered a crackdown against a six-week-old opposition strike that is bleeding the economy.

Chavez warned opponents he would not let them disrupt schools, banks or food supplies with the strike, which has already crippled shipments by the world's No. 5 oil exporter.

"They want to break us economically. They are not going to do it. I swear it by God and my mother," Chavez said during his weekly television and radio show.

During his broadcast, Chavez signed a decree creating a special government commission to combat a tax rebellion announced by opposition leaders. By urging Venezuelans not to pay taxes, the strikers hope to cut government revenue already drained by the oil strike.

The president, elected in 1998, said the strike was costing the country tens of millions of dollars a day. Chavez, who has already fired 2,000 striking state oil employees, repeated threats to send troops to take over private factories and warehouses if they hoarded food supplies.

He also threatened to revoke the broadcasting licenses of private TV stations that criticize his rule. He described their hostile programming as "worse than an atomic bomb."

www.brunei-online.com

On the first anniversary of the federal No Child Left Behind Act, President Bush in the White House East Room reflects on the progress of the sweeping education reforms, Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2003. Bush promised anew last Wednesday that the law's emphasis on school and student accountability will improve academic performance. AP WASHINGTON (AFP) - President George W. Bush has a packed policy agenda from preparing a possible war with Iraq, to handling the North Korean crisis and tough talks with Congress to push his controversial economic stimulus plan.

While Iraq for some time has been topping his priorities, North Korea has become an increasingly painful thorn the side of his administration.

Named a year ago by Bush as one of the countries he called an "axis of evil," Pyongyang has now threatened to renew nuclear military tests and has pulled out of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.

North Korea said it has no plans to build nuclear weapons and is ready to talk to Washington about monitoring its suspect atomic program, US go-between Bill Richardson said Saturday after three days of talks with Pyongyang envoys.

But the US State Department in Washington immediately countered by saying the North Korean diplomats had failed to address any of their concerns in the crisis over their nuclear programme during the informal talks in Santa Fe.

Washington has been scrambling to stress that a diplomatic solution is needed with North Korea, while rattling its sabres increasingly loudly in Iraq's case.

US forces in the Gulf region will be bolstered this month by around 35,000 more troops, bringing the total to 120,000. But unlike his father George Bush in 1990's Gulf war, this Bush has not yet been able to muster much of an international coalition to fight.

Bush promised this week that if Iraqi President Saddam Hussein does not give up weapons of mass destruction he says Baghdad has, the United States and others would disarm Iraq and "free the Iraqi people." Baghdad denies having such arms.

Turkey has been pressed to allow US forces access to its bases and the European Union said Friday it did not want a war in Iraq, noting that any warfare should be decided by the UN Security Council.

Russia believes the report by chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix Thursday confirms that a politial solution remains a possibility.

But Washington said the report, which did not offer proof that Iraq has weapons of mass destruction, also did not prove it does not have them.

With Pyongyang, Washington has pulled out all the stops, from calling for dialogue with North Korea, and Bush's telephone call to Chinese President Jiang Zemin for consultations.

North Korea has continued to harden its stand, arguing that Washington is not sincere. It has sought to reopen diplomatic channels, such as the talks with Richardson, a former US ambassador to the United Nations.

The potentially explosive situation in Venezuela -- a key US oil supplier -- has landed on a back burner. But the White house is worried, and Friday said it would support mediation efforts by OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria and an electoral solution as a general strike against President Hugo Chavez drags on.

On the domestic front Bush's economic stimulus package unveiled earlier this week has crashed into fierce opposition from Democrats and even some of Bush's fellow Republicans, with many arguing the tax cuts proposed heavily favor the wealthy and worsen the budget deficit.

Bush said Friday he was concerned by news that December's jobless rate had hit an eight-year high of six percent with the loss of 101,000 jobs.

His father lost the 1991 presidential election largely as Americans were underwhelmed by the state of the economy and less interested in his foreign policy achievements.

www.guardian.co.uk Monday January 13, 2003 3:50 AM

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - Soldiers lobbed tear gas at tens of thousands of Venezuelans marching on a park near a military base to demand the armed forces' support in the ongoing strike against President Hugo Chavez. Nineteen people were injured, including one photographer who was hit by rubber bullets.

Opposition protesters regrouped as the gas clouds lifted, shouting ``cowards'' at hundreds of soldiers facing them with armored personnel carriers. Troops also kept back dozens of Chavez supporters protesting nearby.

The first marchers to arrive at Los Proceres park, which is outside the Fort Tiuna military base, stomped down barbed wire blocking the entrance, but they did not try to break past security lines.

Hector Castillo, a photographer for the local newspaper El Mundo, was injured by rubber bullets that some soldiers fired into the air, Caracas Fire Chief Rodolfo Briceno said. Eighteen other people were treated for asphyxiation, he said.

The park is one of eight security zones in Caracas as decreed by Chavez. Protests are banned in those areas unless authorized by the defense ministry.

All of this show of force is absurd,'' said Henrique Capriles, the opposition mayor of an eastern Caracas district. People are tired of being assaulted and repressed.''

The military - purged of dissidents after a brief April coup - has supported Chavez during the strike, which has paralyzed the world's fifth-largest oil exporter but has not rattled the president's resolve to stay in power.

Troops have seized oil tankers, commandeered gasoline trucks and locked striking workers out of oil installations. Top commanders have professed their loyalty to the government.

Speaking in his weekly radio and television address on Sunday, Chavez dismissed opponents as ``fascists'' manipulated by the media.

He also dismissed Infrastructure Minister Eliecer Hurtado, a retired general, and replaced him with Diosdado Cabello, the current interior minister. Chavez did not explain the change or say who would head the interior ministry, which commands the federal and secret police forces.

Venezuela's main television stations are not broadcasting any commercials except opposition advertisements promoting the strike. Media owners say they have been pushed into this stance because Chavez incites followers to attack reporters.

Chavez threatened to revoke the broadcasting licenses of television and radio stations if they ``continue with their irrational insistence on destabilizing the country by supporting this fascist subversion.''

Venezuela's largest labor confederation, business chamber and opposition parties began the strike Dec. 2 to demand that Chavez resign and call early elections if he loses a nonbinding referendum on his rule.

The National Elections Council scheduled the referendum for Feb. 2 after accepting an opposition petition signed by 2 million people.

Chavez says the vote would be unconstitutional, and his supporters have challenged it in the Supreme Court. He was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000, and his term ends in 2007. Venezuela's constitution allows a recall referendum halfway through a president's term - August, in Chavez's case.

Opponents accuse the president of running roughshod over democratic institutions and wrecking the economy with leftist policies. The opposition has staged dozens of street marches, called for a tax boycott and held a two-day bank strike last week.

Chavez has threatened to order troops to seize food production plants that are participating in the strike and to fire or jail striking teachers and have soldiers take over their duties.

He already has fired 1,000 oil workers after some 30,000 of 40,000 workers joined the strike, which has caused fuel shortages and slowed oil exports to a trickle.

The strike is costing the country an estimated $70 million a day.

On Jan. 3, Chavez supporters and opponents clashed while police fired tear gas to keep the sides apart during an opposition march on Los Proceres. Two Chavez supporters died after being shot and at least 78 others were injured, five with gunshot wounds. It was unclear who fired on marchers.

Police also intervened Saturday when Chavez supporters blocked the route of a planned opposition march through the streets of Maracay, the military's nerve center, and on Margarita island off Venezuela's coast.

In Colombia, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton dismissed the possibility that his country was heading toward civil war.

To have a civil war, two (sides) are needed, and the government doesn't want that,'' Chaderton told The Associated Press. We are not preparing ourselves for civil war but to preserve peace and reconciliation.''

The country's crude output is estimated at about 400,000 barrels a day, compared with the pre-strike level of 3 million barrels. Exports are a fifth of the 2.5 million barrels a day the country usually produces.

The country's $100 billion economy shrank an estimated 8 percent in 2002, largely due to constant political instability. Inflation has surpassed 30 percent while unemployment reaches 17 percent.

Negotiations sponsored by the Organization of American States have produced few results.