news.ft.com By Guy de Jonquieres and William Hall Published: January 21 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: January 21 2003 4:00

Dancing the night away is no longer part of the programme for the 2,000 business and government leaders gathering in Davos for the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. The weekend gala soirée, traditionally the social high point of the six-day event that starts on Thursday, has been scrapped.

The reason is concern that conspicuous partying would send the wrong signals to a world preoccupied with the threat of an Iraq war, terrorism, the North Korean crisis, economic fragility and plunging financial markets. Klaus Schwab, the forum's president, said the times called for a more puritan image.

Uncertainty about the international political and economic outlook is set to weigh heavily on the meeting, which is back in the Swiss resort after the September 11 terrorist attacks led it to decamp to New York last year.

Veteran Davos-goers say the agenda has seldom been more loaded with intractable problems. "Global leaders are at the most important crossroads since the end of the cold war," said Jeffrey Garten, dean of the Yale school of management. "They face massive challenges that are hard to come to grips with."

The perception that the world is a more dangerous place will be heightened by reinforced security, at a cost of $10m (£6.2m). Two thousand soldiers and police will patrol Davos, with more deployed in other cities. Air traffic over Davos will be restricted and unauthorised aircraft risk being shot down.

Anti-globalisation demonstrators, a regular feature of the meeting, will be allowed an orderly weekend march. They will be vetted at the insistence of the US, which is sending a high-profile delegation with cabinet members headed by Colin Powell, secretary of state, and including John Ashcroft, the attorney-general.

This year's headline theme is "building trust". Mr Powell's presence may help reassure an audience worried that the sole superpower is bent on flexing its military muscle.

"The US is perhaps getting the message that if things go on this way it will suffer huge unpopularity globally," said the head of one of Europe's largest companies. "But it still has a big public-relations job to do."

For business leaders Iraq is only one of the clouds on the horizon. Many complain of a more pervasive sense of drift. "There is a sombre attitude among chief executives everywhere," said Peter Sutherland, chairman of BP and Goldman Sachs International and a former Davos chairman. "Many of their concerns are about issues beyond their control."

These hesitations are in stark contrast to the mood of top managers at Davos meetings in the late 1990s, when they coasted on a wave of exuberance propelled by the internet, the new economy, the unstoppable forces of globalisation and confidence in their own infallibility.

It seemed then as though "Davos man", effortlessly bestriding the twin peaks of business and high policy, was master of all he surveyed. But now he - and participants are still predominantly men - has come down to earth.

Triumphalism has been replaced by defensive introspection as the cult of the chief executive has been shattered by the bursting of the stock market bubble, collapsing profits and a succession of US corporate scandals.

"Business leaders' reputations have been trashed," said Mr Garten. "Their attention is still on what went wrong in the last two years, not on what needs to be done for the future."

Others will aim to strike a more positive note. Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, president of Brazil, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party, will be talking up their new governments' policies. Religious leaders, headed by Lord Carey, former archbishop of Canterbury, will be on hand to offer spiritual uplift.

Many say the real value of the event lies not in the presentations but in the opportunity to network and compare notes. Most big names arrive with diaries full of meetings scheduled far in advance.

What all the talking will achieve is another matter. Mr Schwab has long sought to make Davos an agenda-setting event that generates concrete initiatives. Now, he admits, that task is harder. "Seven or eight years ago you could propose solutions. But many fewer are possible today. If we can contribute to better understanding we will already have done a lot," he said.

For many participants that will be enough. "If Davos did not exist, you would want to create it," said Stuart Eizenstat, a former US deputy Treasury secretary and now a Washington lawyer. "It is about the only place where business and government can exchange ideas and get a sense of direction."

Whether they will have a clearer vision of where they are heading after this year's meeting is an open question.

Additional reporting by William Hall in Zurich Lessons from terror, Page 19 www.ft.com/globaleconomy

www.guardian.co.uk Giles Tremlett in Madrid Tuesday January 21, 2003 The Guardian

From Buenos Aires to Bogota, the daily queues outside Spanish consulates have begun to stretch around the block as up to a million Latin Americans exploit a new law allowing them to become Spaniards.

The law, which came into effect 10 days ago, opens the doors of Spain and, by extension, of the European Union, to children and grandchildren of Spanish exiles and emigrants in the Americas.

The Spanish foreign minister, Ana Palacio, expects a million applications, equivalent to a 2.5% rise in the population.

Ms Palacio, from the ruling conservative People's party, said the law would help right the wrongs suffered by those forced into exile by General Franco. But it has also been seen as a way of ensuring that the next wave of immigrants are people who share its language and religion.

With its low birth rate and booming economy, Spain has reversed its status as a country of emigrants, attracting an influx of mainly Moroccans, east Europeans and Africans. It now takes almost 25% of the foreigners who moved to the EU last year.

With Latin America, especially Venezuela and Argentina, suffering a major economic crisis, Spanish consulates have been inundated with requests.

Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela have the biggest Spanish emigrant populations, and therefore the most applicants.

In Argentina, where some 300,000 people are eligible to apply, news of the law made it onto the front pages.

There is a long wait, however - up to 18 months before applicants even have their cases looked at.

But such is the demand in Buenos Aires that professional queuers are charging £1 a day to applicants who cannot afford the time to queue or who wish to escape the harsh summer sun.

The law rights some of the anomalies of traditional Spanish machismo, which allowed children of Spanish men born abroad to claim nationality but not those of women who married foreigners. It also allows the grandchildren of exiles or emigrants to claim nationality if they themselves have resided in Spain for more than a year.

The new measure has gone largely unremarked upon in Spain, which is beginning to get used to the idea that its economy will need the labour of millions of new immigrants.

www.guardian.co.uk Giles Tremlett in Madrid Tuesday January 21, 2003 The Guardian

From Buenos Aires to Bogota, the daily queues outside Spanish consulates have begun to stretch around the block as up to a million Latin Americans exploit a new law allowing them to become Spaniards.

The law, which came into effect 10 days ago, opens the doors of Spain and, by extension, of the European Union, to children and grandchildren of Spanish exiles and emigrants in the Americas.

The Spanish foreign minister, Ana Palacio, expects a million applications, equivalent to a 2.5% rise in the population.

Ms Palacio, from the ruling conservative People's party, said the law would help right the wrongs suffered by those forced into exile by General Franco. But it has also been seen as a way of ensuring that the next wave of immigrants are people who share its language and religion.

With its low birth rate and booming economy, Spain has reversed its status as a country of emigrants, attracting an influx of mainly Moroccans, east Europeans and Africans. It now takes almost 25% of the foreigners who moved to the EU last year.

With Latin America, especially Venezuela and Argentina, suffering a major economic crisis, Spanish consulates have been inundated with requests.

Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela have the biggest Spanish emigrant populations, and therefore the most applicants.

In Argentina, where some 300,000 people are eligible to apply, news of the law made it onto the front pages.

There is a long wait, however - up to 18 months before applicants even have their cases looked at.

But such is the demand in Buenos Aires that professional queuers are charging £1 a day to applicants who cannot afford the time to queue or who wish to escape the harsh summer sun.

The law rights some of the anomalies of traditional Spanish machismo, which allowed children of Spanish men born abroad to claim nationality but not those of women who married foreigners. It also allows the grandchildren of exiles or emigrants to claim nationality if they themselves have resided in Spain for more than a year.

The new measure has gone largely unremarked upon in Spain, which is beginning to get used to the idea that its economy will need the labour of millions of new immigrants.

www.guardian.co.uk Giles Tremlett in Madrid Tuesday January 21, 2003 The Guardian

From Buenos Aires to Bogota, the daily queues outside Spanish consulates have begun to stretch around the block as up to a million Latin Americans exploit a new law allowing them to become Spaniards.

The law, which came into effect 10 days ago, opens the doors of Spain and, by extension, of the European Union, to children and grandchildren of Spanish exiles and emigrants in the Americas.

The Spanish foreign minister, Ana Palacio, expects a million applications, equivalent to a 2.5% rise in the population.

Ms Palacio, from the ruling conservative People's party, said the law would help right the wrongs suffered by those forced into exile by General Franco. But it has also been seen as a way of ensuring that the next wave of immigrants are people who share its language and religion.

With its low birth rate and booming economy, Spain has reversed its status as a country of emigrants, attracting an influx of mainly Moroccans, east Europeans and Africans. It now takes almost 25% of the foreigners who moved to the EU last year.

With Latin America, especially Venezuela and Argentina, suffering a major economic crisis, Spanish consulates have been inundated with requests.

Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, Brazil, Mexico and Venezuela have the biggest Spanish emigrant populations, and therefore the most applicants.

In Argentina, where some 300,000 people are eligible to apply, news of the law made it onto the front pages.

There is a long wait, however - up to 18 months before applicants even have their cases looked at.

But such is the demand in Buenos Aires that professional queuers are charging £1 a day to applicants who cannot afford the time to queue or who wish to escape the harsh summer sun.

The law rights some of the anomalies of traditional Spanish machismo, which allowed children of Spanish men born abroad to claim nationality but not those of women who married foreigners. It also allows the grandchildren of exiles or emigrants to claim nationality if they themselves have resided in Spain for more than a year.

The new measure has gone largely unremarked upon in Spain, which is beginning to get used to the idea that its economy will need the labour of millions of new immigrants.

www.granma.cu BY JOAQUIN ORAMAS

THE threat of U.S. military aggression against Iraq and the situation in Venezuela provoked by a pro-U.S. opposition are the main focuses of attention for thousands of participants at the World Social Forum in Porto Alegre, Brazil, and the World Economic Forum, Davos. In a clash of interests, both meetings are taking place on January 23-28.

Tens of thousands of party leaders, non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) and other sectors are meeting in the Brazilian city, matched by an equal number of businesspeople representing the huge corporations taking part at the other meeting in the Swiss mountain tourist resort. All of them will be analyzing the international economic situation from their own point of view, but through a fundamental prism: Will there be war in the Middle East in the next few weeks? How can we deal with a situation originating with an increase in oil prices, given the consequences of the Bush administration’ threats against that Arab country and the opposition’s destabilizing campaign aimed at the Venezuelan government?

This time, the Davos and Porto Alegre camps will be in agreement that the acute crisis in the world economy was dangerously increasing even before the destruction of the Twin Towers.

Capitalists gathered in the Swiss ski resort will not be able todisguise that reality after the collapse of the Argentine economy, the U.S. Federal reserve’s consecutive and unheard of series of 11 cuts in interest rate, and the alarming situation facing Japan, where the economy has been stagnant for the last few years.

These will not be the only topics at the two forums, but the dangers that war and oil bring with them are so grave and universal that the negative consequences for everyone mean that the problems must be thoroughly analyzed.

Because if the great capitalist bloc is going to be discussing markets and investments in Davos, then it cannot avoid the damage to and loss of confidence in investments and other factors that enter into such negotiations.

In the conclave of the powerful, the United States will reiterate its official refusal to reduce its strategic oil reserves (600 million barrels) vis-à-vis the crisis in the supply of that resource and high prices. But that will not halt the lack of confidence.

Meanwhile, at the Brazilian forum, voices demanding measures enabling millions of people to receive the food they lack are becoming even louder.

Currently, hunger and poverty - the main enemies of Latin America and the Caribbean - are the consequences of erroneous national policies, successive international economic crises and U.S. restrictions on agricultural exports. These problems figure among the main causes of poverty for 65% of the region’s 516 million inhabitants, causing extreme poverty for 38% and malnutrition for 11%.

But this data, contained in a report from last June’s World Food Summit, excludes increased hunger in Latin America, a continent that over the last few years has been punished by earthquakes, hurricanes, drought and the level of its respective governments’ political and administrative corruption.

Haiti, where 62% of the population is suffering from hunger, must also be added to the list of countries experiencing serious economic problems. In Colombia and Peru, hunger affects one out of every four persons; in Mexico, 40 million out of a total population of 100,000 inhabitants suffer some degree of malnutrition in infancy.

The Latin American and Caribbean continent is no longer the main recipient for international aid. The end of 2002 saw the fifth year of low growth rate in the region, with a fall in GDP production to 0.1%; high inflation; and 9.1% unemployment: 50% of the workforce had no steady jobs.

Nor are there any sustainable regional or governmental projects to confront this scourge. The only exception is Brazilian President Lula da Silva’s Zero Hunger Program, the first measure taken by his government after his January 1 investiture.

Lula’s plan is a completely new idea in Latin America; it is an attempt not only to overcome hunger in Brazil, but also inaugurates sustainable programs with a view to creating employment and areas of production benefiting the poor.

The goal of the Zero Hunger Program is for those 22 million Brazilians affected by poverty to eat three meals per day within the next four years; a number that the independent Brazilian Forum for Food Security intends to double, equaling 16% of the country’s inhabitants.

Twenty-one lines of action combining structural policies such as agrarian reform and extending social provision to illegal workers have been developed, plus other specific and local plans including distributing food coupons and increasing snacks for school pupils.

The Brazilian leader is the only president attending both important international events in Porto Alegre and Davos, and he plans to inaugurate the former. Some 100,000 participants are expected, comprising trade union leaders, representatives from ethnic groups, NGO’s, political parties, and others.

The Porto Alegre forum is to discuss the situation created by the region’s poverty, advances in the battle against neoliberal globalization, development of environmental awareness and protest against the U.S. war campaign under the pretext of combating terror.

An essential aspect of the Brazilian agenda is the problems resulting from the region’s poverty. The topic has been suggested by different international organizations such as the World Food Program (WFP), which confirmed in 2002 that some 72 million Latin American and Caribbean citizens are in extreme need of foodstuffs and suffering from hunger, a situation that is set to worsen this year.

Among the important issues that analysts consider priorities is the threat of hunger affecting more than 200 million of the region’s inhabitants who are vulnerable to the announced worsening of the economy or to fresh natural disasters.

According to World Food Summit reports, Central America’s hungry population has grown from 17% to 19% over the last ten years; Caribbean figures show a rise of 26% to 28%. In the last 10 years, some 200 Central American children died of starvation, and over eight million people are affected in the poorest and most arid areas of the Isthmus.

Paradoxically, Latin America and the Caribbean contain 25% of the world’s cultivatable land, 23% of its livestock and around 30% of potable water reserves, according to UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) experts.

Via sustainable development, these resources could be used to obtain food for all the region’s inhabitants and provide hard currency and sources for developing other economic sectors, adds the FAO.

Argentina, for example, produces enough food for 300 million - 12 times the country’s population. However, hunger is chronic in the poorest communities and, after the December 21 debacle, things are becoming worse and moving into other social strata.

The nation’s state-run National Statistics and Census Institute (Indec) indicates that more than 52% of the 37 million Argentines are poor and 26% are extremely poor, that is to say do not have the minimum income needed to survive.

The most dramatic cases are found in the infant population. Indec data from 2001 indicates that every year, 11,000 under-ones die in Argentina. But 6,000 of these deaths are preventable - they are linked to poverty-induced diseases such as malnutrition and diarrhea.

The situation can only be compared with the consequences of a “war or natural disaster” despite the fact that neither situation is occurring in any of the region’s countries, pointed out Pablo Vincur, UN Development Program (UNDP) advisor.

The profound Argentine crisis has affected its neighbor Uruguay. Although the latter nation is an excellent food producer, there are currently severe problems of hunger in its infant population, 60% of whom live in poor homes.

Analysts reveal that Uruguayan food centers sponsored by non-governmental and religious groups and subsidized by international organizations have quadrupled in the last six year. That makes it certain that Porto Alegre will also be the venue for denunciations from the NGO’s of the nation once dubbed the Switzerland of the Americas and now another victim of neoliberalism.