Forbes.com-Reuters, 04.22.03, 5:18 PM ET   CHICAGO (Reuters) - Gold edged up to another three-week high Tuesday, piggybacking off a weaker dollar that drew in European demand before a rally in Wall Street stocks diluted investor interest in the safe-haven metal. In other commodity markets, oil prices closed lower as the May crude oil contracts expired at the end of the day. Cocoa prices spiked higher as speculators dove back into the market but grain prices closed mostly lower on cash market signals. At the COMEX, gold for June delivery closed up 90 cents at $334.80 an ounce, trading down from an early peak at $336.80, which was its best price since April 2. On Monday, New York gold traders had pushed the contract up by $6.30 while London, Sydney and Hong Kong were out of the liquidity pool on a four-day Easter holiday break. Gold bullion closed at $334.00/70, up from Monday's late quote at $333.20/95. London bullion dealers had earlier fixed their afternoon spot reference price at $334.90. World financial markets are back to worrying about economic growth and profits now that the United States has shifted from waging war in Iraq to rebuilding, hunting for suspected weapons of mass destruction and searching for former Iraqi officials. The euro rose to $1.1002 Tuesday, the highest since it neared a four-year peak March 12, which made dollar-priced gold more affordable to European investors. But the euro trimmed gains on rumors that former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had been captured, which also helped the Dow Jones industrial average bounce from a 60-point morning loss to close 156 points higher at 8,484. Wall Street's recovery also allowed silver -- more sensitive to industrial demand than gold -- to grab the baton and sprint to its best level in more than five weeks. May silver closed 6.2 cents higher at $4.597 an ounce. "As long as you see the dollar continue to remain pressured, then I think you can continue to see upside in gold," said analyst David Meger at Alaron Trading in Chicago. "One of the things that could stop that would be a strong continuation of the equity market rally." At the New York Mercantile Exchange, May crude oil futures closed 3 percent lower as speculators exited before expiry. A sharp drop in oil product prices and squaring ahead of weekly U.S. petroleum inventory data also added to the day's slump. NYMEX May crude oil closed 96 cents lower at $29.91 a barrel. In London, Brent June crude fell 42 cents at $25.46. Gasoline futures sank as the cash market at the Gulf of Mexico weakened, with traders reporting Gulf refiners selling, not buying, gasoline. Venezuelan state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela also lifted a force majeure, or suspension, of gasoline exports, weighing on gasoline prices. May gasoline closed 3.24 cents lower at 87.74 cents a gallon. May heating oil fell 2.22 cents a gallon at 77.86. The main event of the week remains the Thursday meeting in Vienna of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC producers are worried that American oil firms will follow U.S. tanks into Baghdad, spurring sharp rises in crude output under a new Iraqi government. For years, OPEC could rely on Saddam's sanctions-hobbled production to prop up prices. Now it must brace for a resurgent Iraqi oil industry with the potential to join leading OPEC player Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC Russia in the world's top three "swing" producers. Iran has already raised the prospect of an OPEC price war, music to the ears of economies hamstrung by soaring oil costs. "Iraq for many years has been a huge factor supporting oil prices," said Gary Ross at the PIRA Energy consultancy. "That's no longer the case. Now Saddam has gone, the perceptions of how OPEC can manage the market have changed." At the New York Board of Trade, cocoa soared as a wave of buying based on chart-watching speculators began in London and carried over "across the pond" to New York. Cocoa for May delivery closed $87 higher at $2,008 per metric ton, the first close over $2,000 since April 9. Physical cocoa supplies keep tightening after months of civil war in top producer Ivory Coast. There were no delivery notices tendered against the May contract Tuesday, leaving the cumulative total at just 7 lots. At the Chicago Board of Trade, wheat and soybeans closed lower on cash market signals. Soybean barges traded 2-3 cents a bushel lower at the U.S. Gulf of Mexico export gateway Tuesday, pressuring futures. In Toledo, Ohio, more wheat was registered as eligible for delivery against May CBOT futures, surprising a market worried about tight old-crop supplies. Wheat for May delivery closed 2 cents a bushel lower at $2.88-1/4 and May soybeans fell 6-1/2 cents at $6.10 a bushel. Corn for May delivery closed unchanged at $2.38-3/4.

Reuters, 04.21.03, 4:59 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold prices surged to 19-day highs Monday on technical support, with bullion taking its eye off postwar Iraq to focus on the state of the U.S. economy. Crude oil futures rose on expectations Thursday's OPEC emergency meeting will cut members' output in a bid to stem a slide in prices, while coffee prices hit two-month highs. COMEX gold ignored a steady dollar and the stock market to head higher, but an Easter Monday holiday in major gold centers like London, Sydney and Hong Kong kept trade activity thin. "There is a little bit of Far East buying here. It's kind of weird with the dollar strengthening up," said a trader. Bullion is seen as an alternative currency in itself and tends to move in the opposite direction from the dollar, which gained against the European euro currency. The market was also beginning to wean itself of Iraq for price direction a month after U.S.-led forces entered the country. President Saddam Hussein has since been toppled from power and efforts to rebuild the nation are under way. Bullion was now bringing into its focus the state of the economy and corporate earnings in the United States. Private research firm, the Conference Board, said Monday the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.2 percent last month after a 0.5 percent drop in February. Wall Street economists polled by Reuters forecast a 0.1 percent decline. "The good news is that it's not getting worse. The bad news is that it's not going to get better this spring and maybe even this summer," said Ken Goldstein, the board's chief economist. While some welcomed the early end of the war in Iraq as the first step toward economic recovery, Goldstein does not think the end of fighting will necessarily boost growth. Imbalances in the U.S. economy are caused by domestic factors, he said. "The issue of consumer confidence is of far greater importance than what is or what isn't going on in Iraq," he said. COMEX June gold ended $6.30 higher at $333.90 an ounce. NYMEX crude oil futures ended just shy of $31.00-a-barrel market amid expectations that OPEC will decide to cut back members' production at its Thursday meeting. Gains were pared by news that oil production in OPEC member Venezuela, the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter, is now edging toward the 3.1 million barrels per day pumped before a two-month strike crippled the industry in December. "This market is expecting an OPEC production cut ... by how much is the question," said a NYMEX floor trader. Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zanganeh, was quoted as saying on Saturday that members who had overshot their OPEC production quotas should be the first to cut output. But Zanganeh also said OPEC had yet to formally discuss a reduction in output ahead of the Vienna meeting Thursday, according to an Iranian newspaper. Zanganeh, who said last week OPEC must cut output to below its ceiling of 24.5 million bpd to keep oil prices from crashing, indicated that any cut would be made after May 1. OPEC fears a seasonal weakening of demand in the second quarter amid high production coinciding with Iraqi export resumption could cause prices to fall steeply. OPEC estimated Friday that 10 quota-bound members pumped 26.06 million barrels in March, 1.56 million above the quota, just as Iraq exports were halted due to the war. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that OPEC production had shot up to 27 million bpd. NYMEX May crude oil ended 32 cents higher at $30.87 a barrel. May gasoline rose 0.32 cent to 90.98 cents a gallon, while May heating oil rose 2.72 cents to 80.08 cents. CSCE coffee rallied to two-month highs as commodity funds covered their short positions, and on speculative buying ahead of first notice day for deliveries against the May contract. U.S. green coffee roastings in the week ended April 5 totaled some 300,000 60-kg bags, down from 350,000 bags the previous week and 330,000 bags in the corresponding week one year ago, according to Complete Coffee Coverage. In the year to April 5, roastings totaled about 5,245,000, compared with 5,260,000 bags in the same period a year ago. CSCE July coffee ended 0.60 cent higher at 65.65 cents a pound.

The Globe and Mail By PATRICK BRETHOUR AND BRENT JANG Monday, April 21, 2003 - Page B1 Closing Markets

Tuesday, Apr. 22

S&P/TSX 12.16 6582.92 DJIA 156.09 8484.99 S&P500 19.36 911.37 Nasdaq 26.99 1451.36 Venture -2.56 1047.31 DJUK 1.14 159.04 Nikkei -178.62 7790.46 HSeng -7.23 8571.91 DJ Net .77 45.81 Gold (NY) +0.90 334.80 Oil (NY) -0.84 27.99 CRB Index +0.48 235.97 30 yr Can. +0.01 5.53 30 yr U.S. +0.00 4.90 CDN$ buys US$ +0.0034 0.6910 Yen -0.1800 82.7000 Euro -0.0032 0.6301 US$ buys CDN$ -0.0073 1.4471 Yen -0.8800 119.6700 Euro -0.0093 0.9118

Canada's nine biggest energy companies are headed for a $2.7-billion windfall as soaring commodity prices hand the oil patch eye-popping profits in the first quarter.

Oil and natural gas prices have spiked sharply over the past three months and are substantially higher than a year ago, propelled by labour strife in Venezuela, worries about the impact of an assault on Iraq and the chilly weather that hung over much of eastern North America this winter.

Now, energy companies are about to reap billions in bounty, starting with Imperial Oil Ltd., which reports its first-quarter earnings tomorrow. Imperial and Canada's other eight top oil and gas companies are projected to report profits -- excluding one-time charges and the effects of currency fluctuations -- of $3.7-billion, up from $930-million in the first quarter of 2002.

Cash flow from Canadian production of oil and natural gas is projected to surge to $13-billion in the quarter just ended, close to triple the $5-billion in cash generated in the first quarter of 2002, according to FirstEnergy Capital Corp.

"They've had this colossal windfall," said Martin Molyneaux, research director at FirstEnergy in Calgary.

The main question now is how companies will try to spend the gushers of cash. Share buybacks, reducing debt, expanding capital programs or striking deals to buy properties -- or even entire firms -- are all options.

What Mr. Molyneaux called a "tidal wave" of cash will also wash into the coffers of the provincial and federal governments: FirstEnergy forecasts that higher royalties will add an extra $2.5-billion to provincial and federal revenues, with $1.6-billion flowing to Alberta alone. "Ottawa and the various producing provinces are going to get a truckload of money," he said. "It's absolutely gargantuan."

Higher corporate income taxes from the oil patch will likely boost Alberta's first-quarter windfall to $2.5-billion, Mr. Molyneaux added.

The rising tide of higher energy prices will lift results at all the major energy firms, but those companies with integrated operations that include refining and marketing stand to further benefit.

Analysts expect refining margins to rebound from the miserly levels of last year, padding out the bottom lines of Petro-Canada, Shell Canada Ltd., Imperial, Suncor Energy Inc. and Husky Energy Inc.

In a report, UBS Warburg said that Petrocan and Imperial are most likely to report higher-than-projected profits from their downstream operations.

Wilf Gobert, vice-chairman of Peters & Co. Ltd., estimated that the four largest integrated companies -- excluding Husky -- will report a $300-million profit from refining and marketing, nine times higher than the $36-million that the group earned from downstream operations in the first quarter of 2002.

Much of the increase comes from the rebound in refining margins from a year ago, when profit levels were squeezed to 10-year lows. Mr. Gobert noted that higher oil prices did put some pressure on margins in the quarter just ended, with profits falling short of the high-water mark of the second quarter of 2002.

Still, analysts see little to feel gloomy about in the first quarter.

"I think that, by all measures, it will be a record quarter -- outstanding," said Thomas Ebbern, an analyst with Tristone Capital Inc. "Commodity prices were so strong, likely the best we've ever seen as a group."

Mr. Ebbern said not only were there red-hot prices for crude oil and natural gas, but heavy oil markets were stellar, too.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., which has numerous heavy oil properties, will benefit from strength in that specialty oil. The Calgary-based producer has been getting a lift from its purchase last summer of Rio Alto Exploration Ltd.

First-quarter profit at Canadian Natural is expected to surge to $314-million, compared with $99-million a year earlier.

However, Canadian Natural has been facing faltering production from gas wells in the Ladyfern region of northeastern British Columbia.

Those wells start out as big producers, but tend to have a rapid rate of declining output.

Talisman Energy Inc. is forecast to post a strong first quarter, but with the recent sale of its stake in a large joint venture in Sudan, the Calgary-based producer's subsequent quarters won't receive a financial contribution from that African country's oil production.

Talisman is forecast to make a profit of $401-million or $3.11 a share in the first quarter, compared with $95-million or 70 cents in the same period last year.

EnCana Corp., Canada's largest oil and gas company, will have the capability of using its windfall cash to sharply hike its capital spending budget.

But Mr. Ebbern said he expects EnCana and other large energy companies to be relatively frugal when it comes to spending on new drilling projects.

Calgary-based EnCana, which posted a profit of $186-million or 36 cents a share in last year's first quarter, is forecast to haul in $735-million or $1.52 in this year's first quarter.

EnCana, one of the leading producers of natural gas in North America, thrived in the past quarter, when prices for the fuel approached $8 for 1,000 cubic feet -- more than twice as much as a year earlier.

Calgary-based Nexen Inc., whose key oil project is in the Middle East country of Yemen, is expected to post a first-quarter profit of $224-million, compared with $54-million in the first three months of last year.

While some investors have been worried about Nexen's reliance on Yemen, the company has a diversified portfolio that includes attractive assets in Canada and the Gulf of Mexico, said Andrew Bryne, an analyst with John S. Herold Inc.

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<a href=www1.internetwire.com>internetwire.com

MIAMI, FL -- (INTERNET WIRE) -- 04/17/2003 -- Under the newsworthy theme of "Survival 101," AvNews Latin America & Caribbean will sponsor its 11th annual international conference of airline CEOs on May 4 and 5 at the deluxe Biltmore Hotel in Coral Gables, Florida. Keynote speakers will be Angela Gittens, who has been making history as director at Miami International Airport, and Ned Homfeld, chairman of up-and-coming low cost Spirit Airlines.

The conference is built around four panels, which include some of the most successful executives and savvy experts in international civil aviation:

"The Survivor Panel"

The conference starts in high gear on Monday morning as experts Richard Hollowell, Jonathan Leak and Tom Salerno will respectively tackle crucial subjects like crisis management and recovery techniques, fuel management, and bankruptcy as a means for restructuring airlines around the world. Moderated by Conference Chairman, Marshall Sinick, this panel provides unique opportunities for audience participation in search of knowledgeable answers from the panelists.

"Cargo -- Key to Survival Panel"

Moderated by veteran cargo executive, Bill Spohrer, the four panelists -- Rob Zoller, CEO KittyHawk; Freddie Jacobsen, CEO Tampa airlines; Dick Haberly, CEO Arrow Air and Roberto Bianchi, Senior VP Lan.Chile Cargo -- will describe their experience in many markets, from domestic U.S. to international from the U.S., as well as prospects for foreign carriers. A most useful panel at a time when cargo is contributing to the profitability of many airlines, both all-cargo and passenger/cargo.

"The CEO Panel"

The centerpiece of the conference, moderated this year by aviation consultant and former Editor in Chief of Aviation Daily, Mike Miller, this impressive panel includes the following CEOs from Latin America and the Caribbean: Enrique Cueto, Lan.Chile; Federico Bloch Grupo TACA; Juan Emilio Posada; Alianza Summa; Pedro Heilbron, Copa Airlines; Conrad Aleong, BWIA; Ernesto Asbun, Lloyd Aereo Boliviano; and Nelson Ramiz, Aeropostal Alas de Venezuela.

"Virtual, and other Alliances Panel"

The morning session on Tuesday will be moderated by Jim Forster of Group Systems America, Inc. who has an outstanding record in developing Internet website products that enable international airlines to expand their booking and other services in what he calls "virtual alliances." The panel includes Jaan Albrecht, CEO, STAR Alliance; Tom Anderson, Senior VP, Spirit Airlines; Rick Blake, Senior VP, Cayman Airways, Juan Arbelaez, VP-North America, Alianza Summa, and Ray Neidle, Airline Analyst, Blaylock & Partners LLP.

This year's conference has 25 International and Domestic Airlines registered with CEOs from 22 attending and participating.

For more information on the conference and sponsorship opportunities visit the conference Web site at www.ceoconference.com.

<a href=cbs.marketwatch.com>CBS MarketWatch By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:52 PM ET April 15, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A forced shutdown of an oil pipeline between Iraq and Syria, as well as the possibility that OPEC will decide to cut back output at a meeting next week, pulled crude futures back above $29 a barrel Tuesday for the first time in two weeks.   CBS MARKETWATCH TOP NEWS Basketful of earnings, data on tap next week Slimmer U.S. March deficit but FY03 could be record After buyout, analysts like Pfizer shares Gartner: Dell reclaims No. 1 PC spot Free! Sign up here to receive our Midday Market Report e-Newsletter!

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U.S. forces shut down a pipeline used for illegal oil shipments from Iraq to Syria on Tuesday -- a move that's "considered to be bullish for prices as this will keep oil off the market in the short term," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

Iraq's oil output is under the control of U.N. sanctions and the Syrian pipeline was not part of allowable sales.

"Crude is extremely sensitive to any production cuts anywhere let alone when Donald Rumsfeld announces that the U.S. cut off the supplies to Syria," he said. It's "another tension builder [and] no one knows how it will be accepted in the Middle East."

The U.S. ratcheted up political pressure on Syria after Iraqi officials were detained near the border. Syria also has denied U.S. allegations that it has chemical weapons, a long-standing issue, and is providing safe harbor for Iraq's leadership. See America at War.

With that as a backdrop, crude for May delivery closed at $29.29 a barrel, up 66 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange -- its first close above $29 since April 1. It reached an intraday high at $29.50 a barrel earlier in the session.

OPEC also confirmed Tuesday that it will hold a special "consultative" meeting on April 24 in Vienna to discuss a possible production cut in response to a sharp drop in world oil prices.

"We don't foresee any adjustment to the official quotas, but do expect the cartel to embrace strict compliance as the way to avoid a glut," Tim Evans, senior analyst at IFR Pegasus in New York, said in an evening update.

OPEC could stop prices from falling further by improving compliance to its output limit of 24.5 million barrels per day, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil was quoted as saying earlier this week.

"Despite a halt in Iraqi exports due to the war, prices have slumped by 30 percent in a month on a rising tide of exports from Saudi Arabia and other cartel members," Fimat USA analyst Michael Fitzpatrick told clients Tuesday.

Cartel members, excluding Iraq, have been producing at about 2 million barrels above their quota, according to industry estimates.

Last week, OPEC President Abdullah Hamad bin al-Attiyah said the oil market, on a global basis, is oversupplied by at least 2 million barrels per day and could potentially be oversupplied by a total of 4 million barrels per day once Iraq's oil production is resumed.

Right now, "commercial oil stocks worldwide are well below normal levels due to a series of supply interruptions from Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq and a particularly harsh winter," said Fitzpatrick.

But a monthly report released by the International Energy Agency last week pegged world oil production at 80.3 million barrels per day in March, well above its second-quarter demand forecast for an average of 76.4 million barrels per day.

Other countries in the picture

Even with the Iraqi situation "almost a memory," said Infinity's Person, the oil markets must "remember that instability in other areas of the world still exist such as Venezuela and Nigeria."

Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com, a commodity information provider, agreed. The market is still affected by a 700,000 barrel-per-day loss of Nigerian output because of the African country's civil unrest, as well as a loss of 500,000 barrels per day from Venezuela, which is slowly resuming its output following a labor strike, he said.

"Depending on how the next couple of months play out, we could see $24 July crude or $30 July crude," Hultman said.

Still, he noted that "even if supplies stay tight in the next month, the long-term view is that a peaceful Iraq will lead to a friendlier oil trade and lower crude oil prices."

Also, any demand in the U.S. and abroad will offset any increases in imports, said Infinity's Person. And the lack of a climb in the number of oil drilling rigs in the U.S. means that the nation will continue to be dependent on foreign imports, he said.

Tempering the gains

Despite oil's close back above $29, prices never rose more than $1 a barrel during Tuesday's session.

Offsetting the prospect of OPEC's next move and other supportive factors was news that there were no more fires at Iraqi oil wells and crude supplies in the U.S. are likely headed higher amid strong production from Saudi Arabia.

U.S. Brigadier General Vincent Brooks reportedly said Tuesday that there are no longer any burning oil wells in Iraq.

On Monday, Brooks said it will likely take at least a few weeks for production to resume because the oil fields in both the north and south need to be cleared of explosives, then must be repaired.

Some analysts have speculated that full production could actually be seriously delayed by needed upgrades to the oil infrastructure after years of neglect. See full story.

Oil traders are also wary of the overall state of supplies, which stand at a year-over-year deficit in the U.S.

Total crude inventories were 277.1 million barrels as of the week ended April 4 -- 16.2 percent below the year-ago level, according to the Energy Department. See the latest supply update.

Supply updates on tap

Updates on U.S. supplies are due out Wednesday morning from the Energy Department and American Petroleum Institute.

The Energy Department will likely report a 1 million- to 3 million-barrel increase in crude stocks in the week ended April 11, according to IFR Pegasus.

Analysts at Fimat USA expect a 2.5 million-barrel rise in crude stocks.

IFR Pegasus predicts that gasoline inventories ranged anywhere from unchanged to a rise of 1 million barrels, while distillate stocks ranged from unchanged to a decline of 1 million barrels in the latest week.

Fimat's looking for a rise of 1 million barrels of distillates and a 1.5 million-barrel climb for gasoline supplies.

Ahead of the supply data, May unleaded gasoline tacked on 0.97 cent to 85.88 cents a gallon and May heating oil closed at 77.26 cents a gallon, up 2.51 cents on Nymex.

According to AAA's daily fuel gauge report, the average U.S. price for gasoline at the pump stood at $1.595 a gallon as of early Tuesday, compared with $1.602 on Monday. A year ago, prices were at $1.418 a gallon.

Natural gas logs more gains

Also on Nymex Tuesday, the May natural-gas contract closed at $5.653 per million British thermal units, up 10.1 cents with many analysts calling for a decline in last week's domestic inventories. The contract gained 14.1 cents on Monday.

An update on natural-gas supplies is due Thursday morning. Fimat analysts are predicting a decline of 3 billion cubic feet for the week ended April 11. Market estimates range from a build of 10 billion to a draw of 40 billion cubic feet, Fimat said.

Total inventories were at 671 billion cubic feet as of the week ended April 4 -- 820 billion cubic feet lower than last year at this time and 529 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, according to the Energy Department.

In other Nymex dealings, gold futures closed modestly higher. The June contract added 60 cents to close at $325.50 an ounce. See Metals Stocks.

In equities dealings, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX: news, chart, profile) was lower. See Energy Stocks.

And the Reuters/CRB Index -- a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market -- stood at 231.8, up 0.8 percent. Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.