www.thestreet.com By John Roque Special to RealMoney.com 01/27/2003 11:46 AM EST Editor's note: This column was originally published Jan. 22.

You know how it is. You feel pressure to perform every single day, and you look at charts here and there in order to get some edge. But you don't really monitor longer-term charts. You can't. There's just not enough time in the day.

Earnings are being released, and you're busy trying to figure out if the number was in line, better or light. You're also contending with the inevitable daily stock disappointment, Iraq, North Korea, Venezuela and any other geopolitical worries. I figure it's safe to say that portfolio performance anxiety is already building.

Mind you, I'm not writing this to say that I've conquered the "perspective" discipline. What is that exactly? Tough question. I think it means to not be shaken out by daily moves, to have an aerial view, to see stocks in a bigger-picture scenario. However you define it, I'm still very far from it.

But I do make a habit of, as my friend Doug is fond of saying, "looking through" the charts. He contends that by using the look-through method, you can prepare for more important moves. Looking through the charts means seeing how daily price movements affect weekly price charts and how weekly price movements affect monthly price charts.

The trouble is, and I'm sure Doug will likely agree with me, there's so much volatility that even the most disciplined investors -- those with perspective -- can run into difficulty when trying to look through the charts.

Let's try this with an example. Take a look at the monthly and weekly charts to get some perspective on Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE - news - commentary) .

Judging by my daily email and phone encounters, there are very few investors enamored with Newmont, the gold-stock complex or the physical metal. There's no affinity for anything to do with gold. It's been a long time since anyone has made any money with the sector. It's considered a relic, nobody understands it, and most people, even if they are considering it, only view it as a corollary to the geopolitical instabilities. When it comes right down to it, people only want to own "sexy" stuff. That makes gold the Phyllis Diller of investments.

Investors' inability to embrace Newmont et al. is especially interesting because virtually no other sector in the entire market displays the same technical characteristics: bullish absolute and relative strength, group strength, underlying commodity/monetary asset strength and generally uninterested investors. Maybe this is a stretch, but the lack of interest in Newmont and related stocks is the reverse image of technology in the spring of 2000. I'm sure you remember -- back then, tech had broken charts with ebullient sentiment. Now, gold and gold charts have bullish charts, and most people don't care or don't like them.

So how did I use perspective and look-through methods to read these charts and come to these conclusions? I coupled anecdotal sentiment evidence with technical analysis, and then I used longer-term charts (monthly to smooth the data and weekly to show some volatility) to get perspective on where we've come from and where we can go. Daily charts don't provide that sort of perspective.

Perspective and the look-through theme combine to produce a powerful vision for Newmont, the gold stock complex and the physical metal. And not in a Jim Jones Kool-Aid kind of way. Here's the takeaway:

1. The gold complex is bullish.
2. Gold stocks should be bought on pullbacks.
3. We're in a secular bull market for the gold complex.
4. As long as sentiment remains unconvinced, these stocks will likely be insulated from speculative forces.

John Roque is the technical analyst at Natexis Bleichroeder, a New York-based investment brokerage firm specializing in Europe and the U.S., and a frequent guest on CNBC. At time of publication, Roque had no position in any of the securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. He appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to John Roque.

www.stuff.co.nz 28 January 2003

TOKYO: Japan's trade surplus rose by an unexpectedly small amount in December, with higher oil prices pushing up the cost of imports and exports showing weakness in what could be a worrying sign for the struggling economy.

The Ministry of Finance said yesterday that the customs-cleared surplus rose 19.9 per cent from a year earlier to 791 billion yen ($NZ12.40 billion).

But exports fell 7.3 per cent from November and the rise in the surplus was lower than a median forecast of about 40 per cent to 920 billion yen by economists polled last week.

Economists said rising oil prices due to a looming conflict in Iraq and a crippling strike in Venezuela were partly to blame for the smaller-than-expected surplus, but added that exports - one of Japan's few economic bright spots - were also a concern.

"The trade gap was narrower than our forecasts due to a steep rise in imports, mainly because of the rise in oil prices," said Takeshi Minami, a senior economist at UFJ Tsubasa Securities.

"The outlook for the domestic economy remains bearish, as today's figures give clear evidence that exports are falling."

The futures market price of Brent crude has surged to above $US30 ($NZ55) per barrel from below $US23 in mid-November, and could head even higher if a US-led war against Iraq breaks out.

With Japan depending heavily on Middle East oil, the price rises helped push up imports by 1.2 per cent from a month earlier and by 14.1 per cent from a year earlier to 3.769 trillion yen .

Separate data from the Finance Ministry showed that the value of Japan's customs-cleared imports of crude oil totalled a preliminary 492.858 billion yen in December, up a hefty 51.3 per cent from a year earlier.

Despite falling from the previous month, exports rose on a year-on-year basis for the ninth straight month, gaining 15.1 per cent to 4.560 trillion yen.

A rebound in exports helped drag Japan out of its worst postwar recession early last year and had appeared to be holding up, despite a pause around the third quarter of 2002.

But the overall economy, beset by persistent deflation, a mountain of corporate bad loans and puny domestic demand, has failed to maintain its momentum.

"Looking at the export volumes... they're still pretty strong. Total export volumes were up 13.5 per cent on the year, and exports to Asia were also very strong," said Matthew Poggi, an economist at Lehman Brothers.

"So while our forecast calls for somewhat slower external demand, it doesn't look like it's showing up in the trade numbers just yet. But certainly it's a concern going forward," he added.

For the whole of calendar 2002, the trade surplus rose 51.3 per cent from the previous year to 9.930 trillion yen, with exports up 6.4 per cent and imports down 0.6 per cent.

Industrial production figures out later this week are expected to show that output shrank in the October-December period for the first time in four quarters, boding ill for GDP figures for the period due out on February 14.

Some economists say Japan may be heading into its fourth recession in a decade, although the consensus view is for a period of meagre growth for at least the first half of this calendar year.

A major risk to that scenario is the looming US-led war in Iraq.

By raising the price of the imported oil Japan depends on, a conflict in the Gulf could damage growth prospects. Expectations of a war have already weakened the dollar against the yen, making Japanese exports less competitive.

The yen was around 117.90 yen per $US by mid-morning yesterday. Its climb from around 125 yen in early December has brought frequent threats of intervention from Japanese Finance Ministry officials.

cbs.marketwatch.com By Myra P. Saefong, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 3:43 PM ET Jan. 27, 2003

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Crude futures slipped back under $33 a barrel and gold prices closed off their high of $373 an ounce Monday after a much-anticipated report by the U.N.'s chief arms inspector on Iraqi weapons failed to shed light on the next U.S. move.

"The concern that the U.S. will invade Iraq is now becoming less clear as Hans Blix did not produce the "decisive" evidence that the world wanted to see of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction," said John Person, head financial analyst at Infinity Brokerage Services.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the March crude futures contract closed at $32.29 a barrel, down 99 cents. The contract fell to a low at $32.20.

February gold ended the session at $369.40, up $1 an ounce on Nymex, after trading earlier at $373. See Metals Stocks.

Iraq hasn't yet accepted a U.N. demand that it forsake weapons of mass destruction, but is cooperating "on the whole" with weapons inspectors, Blix told the Security Council Monday.

Blix said more work is needed to verify Iraqi compliance. He pointed out that many questions remain, including those regarding Iraq's development of missiles, and chemical and biological weapons. See full story.

Crude futures gained more than $1 Friday ahead of the U.N. Security Council meeting, but BridgetonGlobal.com head analyst Jeff Mokychic noted that "once the report came without any surprises, traders were able to scale back on their position."

Overall, Blix's testimony was "mixed at best," said Charles Nedoss, a gold analyst at Peak Trading Group. "There was no smoking gun, but there was compelling evidence that Iraq hasn't been fully forthright and has breached the U.N. agreement."

Todd Hultman, president of Dailyfutures.com said the U.S. and U.K. would likely "seize upon" Blix's comments that Iraq hasn't accepted the disarmament process to "strike Iraq."

"Other members of the Security Council are not swayed, but as [U.S.] Secretary General [Colin] Powell said this weekend, the U.S. is prepared to attack without the consent of the other members," Hultman said.

Also Monday, John Negroponte, U.S. ambassador to the U.N., called Iraq's 12,000-page report, which was submitted in December, "inaccurate." Negroponte said Iraq is "not cooperating unconditionally."

Jeremy Greenstock, British Ambassador to the U.N., said the situation wouldn't be resolved peacefully under the U.N. resolution unless the U.N. gets 100 percent cooperation from Iraq. The U.S.'s Powell echoed Greenstock's comments Monday afternoon.

President George Bush "takes his case to the American people" Tuesday in his State of the Union Address, and "military action is likely to commence sometime in February," said Hultman.

Despite the latest decline in oil futures, prices "will continue to trade on the defensive as immediate supplies will be hard pressed to replenish from Middle East outflows and more importantly the 'cat and mouse' game with Iraq will continue," said Person.

The outcome of the situation in Iraq remains uncertain, and world oil supplies are still "vulnerable," Person said.

Venezuela still in backseat

In other news Monday, Venezuela's oil strike entered its ninth week with OPEC Secretary General Alvaro Silva indicating the cartel is doing all it can to make up for the oil supplies lost in the strike.

"For the oil markets, a definitive end of the strike does not mean an immediate return to pre-strike output levels," analysts at Fimat USA told clients Monday. "It may take 30 to 45 days to get back to the 1.5 million barrel per day mark, with 45 to 60 days necessary to elevate production by an additional 1 million barrels per day."

The latest report on U.S. supplies failed to reveal much of an effect from the loss of production, however.

Early Thursday, the American Petroleum Institute reported that crude stocks rose by 181,000 barrels to total 272.4 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, up from 272.2 million a week earlier.

Last week, the Energy Department reported that inventories of crude climbed 1.5 million barrels to 273.8 million barrels as of the week ended Jan. 17, up from 272.3 million a week earlier. See full story. An update on supplies is due Wednesday morning.

Petroleum-product prices closed lower to follow crude. February unleaded gasoline fell by 2.1 cents to 90.15 cents a gallon. February heating oil closed at 93.43 cents a gallon, down 1.59 cents.

Natural-gas futures closed down 12.8 cents at $5.396 per million British thermal units with the latest six- to 10-day forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures in the Northeast through New Mexico and on the West Coast, according to Fimat.

Over in the equities arena Monday, the losses in crude pressured most oil service stocks, and took the Oil Service Index ($OSX: news, chart, profile) down 4.9 percent. See Energy Stocks.

Sugar, cocoa futures sweeten

Sugar futures jumped more than 5 percent, as high crude-oil prices are expected to increase the demand for ethanol production, said Dailyfutures.com's Hultman.

"With the March sugar contract trading over a cent above the July contract, it is fair to say that the markets are viewing this tightness in supply as a temporary problem," he added.

March sugar added 0.41 cent to stand at 8.38 cents a pound after touching a high at 8.53 cents.

Cocoa futures also moved higher on continued unrest in Africa's Ivory Coast, a major cocoa-producing region. March cocoa added $63 to $2,250 per metric ton.

The Reuters/CRB Index, a broad-based measure of the commodity futures market, closed at 243.3, down 0.4 percent amid losses in crude futures.

Myra P. Saefong is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com in San Francisco.

news.ft.com By Ivar Simensen in London Published: January 27 2003 10:49 | Last Updated: January 27 2003 16:36

Investors continued to move out of equities and into commodities on Monday, pushing gold prices to fresh highs along the way, as the fear of war in Iraq continued to dominate investor sentiment.

Spot gold jumped to $372.5 per troy ounce in London, its highest level since December 1996. It was at $370.6 as US trading got under way.

Investors moved into commodities after US and UK officials at the weekend made it clear that they were ready to go to war with Iraq alone if an agreement with the United Nations security council could not be reached.

Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, on Sunday told global business and government leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos: "The US is in no rush to go to war. We seek Iraq's peaceful disarmament. But we will not shrink from war if that is the only way to rid Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction." See more on Mr Powell's warning to Iraq

Other metal prices were strong, with platinum at $643 per troy ounce, slightly off last week's 16-year high of $652.

Prices were steady as investors watched Hans Blix, the chief UN weapons inspector, deliver a key report to the United Nations security council on Monday.

On the International Petroleum Exchange in London, Brent crude gave up early gains and the benchmark March contract was 19 cents lower at $30.30 per barrel. Nymex-traded crude was down 31 cents at $32.97 in New York.

A war in Iraq could potentially curb oil supplies from the oil-rich region, which would send oil prices surging from already firm levels. Inventory levels in the US are at their lowest for several years, following the absence of imports from Venezuela, where a general strike has dramatically cut oil exports since the beginning of December.

www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.26.03, 5:17 PM ET    By Susan Schneider

NEW YORK, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Emerging sovereign debt may endure a rocky ride in the week ahead as uncertainty about a possible U.S.-led war with Iraq remains center stage, pushing investors to the sidelines or prompting a retreat on fears of the economic fallout of a conflict in the Gulf.

The week promises to be a critical one for the U.S. campaign against Iraq. United Nations weapons inspectors are set to deliver the results of a two-month hunt for Iraqi weapons to the U.N. Security Council on Monday, and one day later, U.S. President George W. Bush will give a State of the Union in which he is expected to lay out his views on the threat posed by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

The events will likely add to the war worries already weighing on the emerging debt market, giving investors more room for worry about a possible conflict's impact on U.S. stocks, the dollar and oil prices, said analysts.

"The next two weeks are going to be pretty telling," said Francis Rodilosso, a portfolio manager at Van Eck Capital. "I think the market is going to get increasingly jittery over near-term prospects for conflict."

The currencies of Latin America's two biggest economies -- Brazil and Mexico -- have already taken a tumble in recent days because of the war uncertainty. The Brazilian real and the Mexican peso slid last week in tandem with the U.S. dollar, which has fallen for seven straight sessions on Iraq fears.

The nervousness in U.S. equity markets, now at their lowest point since October, has also ricocheted across Latin America. Increased worries about the war are likely to be felt this week, particularly in market heavyweight Brazil, said analysts.

"There's going to be an increasing focus on the Iraq uncertainty and the question is the vulnerability of the U.S. equity markets," to which Brazil has looked for direction, said Siobhan Manning, Latin American debt strategist at Italian investment bank Caboto.

A recent survey by J.P. Morgan showed fund managers expect a war in Iraq would sink emerging market debt by about 1.5 percent in one day. The investment bank polled 181 institutions managing $136 billion in emerging market assets.

The survey also showed investors expected emerging debt spreads -- the premium paid over benchmark U.S. Treasuries to compensate for risk -- on the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets BondIndex (Global) would widen 0.30 percentage points within a day. The current risk premium on the EMBI Global is around 7 percentage points over safe-haven Treasuries.

Still, investors underscored that the direction of emerging bonds is no easy call if the U.S. does lead a move to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"There are an unimaginable number of potential outcomes to this conflict. There is a chance that the true military conflict part of it is pretty brief, and in that case we might actually see risk premiums come in," said Rodilosso.

"But there are so many potential unexpected outcomes that could result in higher risk premiums," Rodilosso added.

One chief concern is the impact of red-hot oil prices on global growth rates. U.S. crude prices shot up to a two-year high of $35.20 a barrel last week on the Iraq worries and the strangling of Venezuela's oil production by a general strike. They closed at $33.40 a barrel on Friday.

VENEZUELA WORRIES STILL LOOM

Among emerging economies themselves, Venezuela remains the key focus as the shutdown staged by foes of President Hugo Chavez extends into its ninth week.

The strike, aimed at forcing Chavez to step down or call new elections, has stifled oil output -- once the source of half the government's income -- and fired worries that the cash-starved government might default on its debt.

There are signs that oil production levels have climbed through the use of replacement workers, and Chavez also bought some time by closing the foreign exchange market for five trading days, a bid to stave off capital flight.

But with the crisis still unresolved, investors are wondering what steps Chavez might take next to ease the chokehold on the economy.

"The most important thing (in Venezuela) is the next move from the central bank. Are they going to open up the (foreign exchange) market or will it remain closed? Or will they introduce capital controls?" said Manning.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of Chavez foes clamored for early elections in the second day of a street protest in the capital, Caracas.

Chavez, meanwhile, told reporters in Brazil that the government was studying a tax on speculative financial market transactions as it tries to cope with the economic crisis. The leader was in Brazil to shore up support for his government at the World Social Forum.