www.forbes.com Reuters, 01.30.03, 9:52 PM ET India  Australia   By Bill Tarrant

SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The dollar rose and Asian stocks fell on Friday following a mauling on Wall Street, while gold, oil and bonds were firm after U.S. President George W. Bush said he would give diplomacy just weeks to avert a war with Iraq.

The dollar drew comfort from an open letter published in several newspapers by the leaders of eight European nations that called on others -- implicitly France, Germany and Russia -- to support Bush's attempts to disarm Iraq. The letter raised the possibility that the United States would not go to war alone.

Japanese stocks sliced through a two-decade low on Friday, after U.S. stocks fell two percent overnight, as AOL Time Warner Inc's (nyse: AOL - news - people) massive loss compounded economic and war worries.

Crude futures eased in electronic trading in Asia after rising for a third day in New York amid growing worries that war with Iraq could erupt within weeks and disrupt supplies.

A report showing U.S. economic growth had stalled in the final quarter of 2002 hit stocks in the world's biggest economy and added fuel to a rally in U.S. Treasuries.

"It's still unclear when the attack on Iraq will begin and these worries are the biggest factor dragging down stocks globally as well as in Japan," said Tetsuya Ishijima, strategist at Okasan Securities.

"What stock markets hate more than anything is uncertainty." Bush on Thursday welcomed the idea of exile for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and said he would give diplomacy "weeks not months" to end the showdown over disarming Baghdad.

Chief weapons inspector Hans Blix said U.N. investigators had seen no sign of increased cooperation from Iraq since they had handed in their report to the Security Council on Monday.

The Nikkei average <.N225> was down 0.66 percent at 8,262.26 as of 0240 GMT, after falling under a two-decade closing low that it had hit in November. The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> was down 0.91 percent at 817.68.

Other key Asia-Pacific markets were down as well, with trading thinned as many countries in the region began celebrating the oriental Lunar New Year.

Australian shares <.AXJO> fell 0.7 percent, down for a third straight day, with News Corp <NCP.AX> off 2.9 percent following the drubbing that AOL Time Warner took.

Markets in Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, South Korea and Malaysia were shut and Singapore wwas to close after the morning session.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial average <.DJI> fell 2.04 percent to 7,945, finishing below the key psychological 8,000 level for the second time this week. The Standard & Poor's 500 index <.SPX> fell 2.29 percent to 844.57. The tech-loaded Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> ended down 2.65 percent at 1,322.11.

U.S. investors have yet to see solid evidence of a healthy recovery in corporate profits at the height of the fourth-quarter reporting season. AOL Time Warner's stock fell 14 percent after the company posted a 2002 net loss of nearly $100 billion -- the largest in U.S. corporate history.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic activity within U.S. borders, crept ahead at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the October-December quarter, well off the 4 percent of the prior quarter but in line with expectations.

Front-month March crude stood at $33.80 per barrel at 0220 GMT, down five cents from Thursday's close in New York, where the contract settled 22 cents higher at $33.85.

Traders said U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's briefing to the U.N. Security Council next Wednesday could give the United States more ammunition to justify military action soon.

Venezuela's two-month oil strike seemed to falter as the government said output was now up to 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), recovering steadily from lows of 150,000 bpd in December.

Currency traders said the market would look ahead to Bush's meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair later in the day to see if any timeframe emerged for a possible attack.

As of 0220 GMT, the dollar was at 119.18 yen <JPY=> compared with 119.02 in late U.S. trade. The euro was at $1.0812 <EUR=> against 1.0815 and 128.67 yen <EURJPY=R> versus 128.71.

The euro withstood comments from European central bank council member Ernst Welteke, who reiterated on Thursday the pace of the euro's rise, if maintained, could hamper euro zone growth.

Spot Gold <XAU=> was trading around $368.75 an ounce in Asia after closing $2.30 higher at $369.70 an ounce in New York.

The U.S. 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> rallied 27/32 higher to 107-28/32 to yield 4.9 percent. Two-year notes rose 5/32 to 99-28/32 and were yielding 1.68 percent.

www.thestar.com Jan. 30, 2003. 06:11 PM

Click to launch  Big oil unlikely to see 2002 profit jump repeated in 2003

FROM CANADIAN PRESS Four of Canada's biggest integrated oil companies nearly tripled their fourth-quarter profits to $1.3 billion thanks to higher oil and gas prices, but analysts say there won't likely be a repeat performance in 2003.

For Imperial Oil (TSX: IMO), Petro-Canada (TSX: PCA), Shell Canada (TSX: SHC) and Suncor Energy (TSX: SU), the fourth quarter in particular and 2002 overall was a bonanza as the threat of a U.S. war with Iraq and a major strike in Venezuela pushed oil prices above $30 (U.S.) a barrel by year-end.

Higher prices for oil and natural gas helped make 2002 a stellar year for the industry leaders, which also benefitted from increased production from new projects or acquisitions and improved profits in gasoline refining and marketing to make it a stellar year for the industry.

But Gord Currie, an analyst with Canaccord Capital, said it's ``unlikely" that 2003 will be as strong as 2002 for Canada's big oil companies because prices are likely to dip as the Iraq situation is resolved.

"Whenever oil and gas prices are as high as they are today the balance of probabilities is that they're going to be lower," he said. "I think it's just a question of time — is it the second quarter or a year from now, we don't know. But it would be very difficult for 2003 to measure up."

The financial results release so far by four of Canada's biggest oil producers, refiners and gasoline marketers are reaping the benefits of higher prices while they have that option.

EnCana Corp. (TSX: ECA), created last year by the merger of PanCanadian Energy and Alberta Energy Corp. to form the largest Canadian independent oil and gas producer, isn't due to release its fourth-quarter results until Feb. 20.

But Petro-Canada issued vastly improved results Thursday when it reported a 440-per-cent increase in its fourth-quarter earnings — to $356 million from $66 million a year ago.

Higher energy prices were the main cause, although Petro-Canada also gained from its acquisition last year of the international assets of Veba Oil & Gas, whose production and exploration is focused in the North Sea, North Africa and northern Latin America.

Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman called 2002 "an outstanding year" which annual profits rose by 15 per cent over 2001 to $974 million.

Shell Canada's earnings report Thursday echoed these events as its profits rose to $247 million in the fourth quarter from $170 million a year ago. Full-year profits, fell, however, to $561 million from just over $1 billion a year ago, a period of extraordinarily high natural gas prices.

Last week, Calgary-based Suncor Energy reported fourth-quarter profits soared more than tenfold to $258 million from $26 million. For the year, profits of $761 million were nearly double the year earlier.

Energy giant Imperial Oil more than doubled its profits to $454 million in the fourth quarter as high oil prices helped the company post its third-biggest annual profit ever.

For the full year, the Toronto-based company, a subsidiary of U.S.-based ExxonMobil, earned a profit of $1.2 billion compared with $1.24 billion in 2001.

Last year started with reasonable oil prices but then U.S. President George W. Bush unidentified Iraq as a possible target and ``oil prices started a long gradual climb to $30 US and then, with a little help from Venezuela, pushed right through the $30 US level," Currie said.

The Venezuelan strike continues but production from the world's fifth-largest oil producer has recently gained ground, though it's still below the three million barrels per day it pumped before prior to Dec. 2.

The main wildcard with oil prices this year, which have averaged nearly $33 US a barrel in January, is how the war on Iraq plays itself out, said Stephen Calderwood, an oil and gas analyst with Salman Partners Inc. in Calgary.

Calderwood is estimating the price of oil in 2003 will average about $25 US, and that's with an expectation that a war on Iraq will occur by the end of February and will be relatively quick.

"We still there's going to be a war and we still think the oil price will take a huge nosedive after the event," Calderwood said.

However, Currie notes that there are a multitude of possible scenarios in Iraq.

Oil prices could stay high if the conflict is long and drawn-out conflict, or if the U.S. gives weapons inspectors a long time to complete their job, he said.

 GILLIAN LIVINGSTON Canadian Press Thursday, January 30, 2003

TORONTO (CP) - Four of Canada's biggest integrated oil companies nearly tripled their fourth-quarter profits to $1.3 billion thanks to higher oil and gas prices, but analysts say there won't likely be a repeat performance in 2003.

For Imperial Oil, Petro-Canada, Shell Canada and Suncor Energy, the fourth quarter in particular and 2002 overall was a bonanza as the threat of a U.S. war with Iraq and a major strike in Venezuela pushed oil prices above $30 US a barrel by year end.

Higher prices for oil and natural gas helped make 2002 a stellar year for the industry leaders, which also benefited from increased production from new projects in the Alberta oilsands, on Canada's East Coast, and from international acquisitions. Improved profits in gasoline refining and marketing gave an additional boost.

But Gord Currie, an analyst with Canaccord Capital, said it's "unlikely" that 2003 will be as strong as 2002 for Canada's big oil companies because prices are likely to dip as the Iraq situation is resolved.

"Whenever oil and gas prices are as high as they are today the balance of probabilities is that they're going to be lower," he said. "I think it's just a question of time - is it the second quarter or a year from now, we don't know. But it would be very difficult for 2003 to measure up."

The financial results released so far by four of Canada's biggest oil producers, refiners and gasoline marketers show that they're reaping the benefits of those higher prices while they have that option.

EnCana Corp. (TSX:ECA), the largest Canadian independent oil and gas producer following its creation last year by the merger of PanCanadian Energy and Alberta Energy, isn't due to release its fourth-quarter report until Feb. 20.

But Petro-Canada (TSX:PCA) issued vastly improved results Thursday when it reported a 440-per-cent increase in its fourth-quarter earnings - to $356 million from $66 million a year ago.

Higher energy prices were the main cause, although Petro-Canada also gained from its acquisition last year of the international assets of Veba Oil & Gas, whose production and exploration is focused in the North Sea, North Africa and northern Latin America.

Petro-Canada chief executive Ron Brenneman called 2002 "an outstanding year" as annual profits rose by 15 per cent over 2001 to $974 million.

"We of course got a big boost from commodity prices but more fundamentally, it was a year of successful execution across the board. We were really firing on all cylinders," he said on a conference call.

Shell Canada's earnings report Thursday echoed these events as its profits rose to $247 million in the fourth quarter from $170 million a year ago. However, full-year profits fell to $561 million from just over $1 billion a year ago, a period of extraordinarily high natural gas prices.

Last week, Calgary-based Suncor Energy reported that fourth-quarter profits soared nearly tenfold to $258 million from $26 million. For 2002, profits of $761 million were nearly double the year earlier.

Energy giant Imperial Oil more than doubled its fourth-quarter profits to $454 million as high oil prices helped it post its third-biggest annual profit ever.

For the full year, the Toronto-based company, a subsidiary of U.S.-based ExxonMobil, earned a profit of $1.2 billion compared with $1.24 billion in 2001.

Last year started with reasonable oil prices but then U.S. President George W. Bush unidentified Iraq as a possible target and "oil prices started a long gradual climb to $30 US and then, with a little help from Venezuela, pushed right through the $30 US level," Currie said.

The Venezuelan strike continues but production from the world's fifth-largest oil producer has recently gained ground, though it's still below the three million barrels per day it pumped before prior to the start of the strike on Dec. 2.

The main wildcard with oil prices this year, which have averaged nearly $33 US a barrel in January, is how the war on Iraq plays itself out, said Stephen Calderwood, an oil and gas analyst with Salman Partners Inc. in Calgary.

Calderwood is estimating the price of oil in 2003 will average about $25 US, and that's with the expectation that a war on Iraq will occur by the end of February and will be relatively quick.

"We still think there's going to be a war and we still think the oil price will take a huge nosedive after the event," Calderwood said.

However, Currie notes that there are a multitude of possible scenarios in Iraq.

Oil prices could stay high if it's a long and drawn-out conflict, or if the U.S. gives weapons inspectors a long time to complete their job, keeping uncertainty in the market, he said.

Canada's four major integrated oil companies nearly tripled their profits to $1.3 billion in fourth-quarter profits as they benefited from higher oil and natural gas prices and improved margins in gasoline refining.

Some facts:

Imperial Oil Ltd.

Quarterly Profits: $454 million, up from $194 million last year.

Company: Based in Toronto. Canadian arm of global energy giant ExxonMobil Corp. Operates (TSX:IMO) national chain of 2,500 Esso gasoline stations and a number of oil refineries. Is also a major heavy oil and natural gas producer.

Shell Canada Ltd.

Quarterly Profits: $247 million, up from $170 million last year.

Company: Based in Calgary. Major gas producer. Owns (TSX:SHC) national chain of Shell stations. Part of the European-based Royal Dutch Shell group of companies.

Petro-Canada Inc.

Quarterly Profits: $356 million, up from $66 million last year.

Company: Based in Calgary. Former Crown corporation. Now widely held although the federal government still owns about 18 per cent of company (TSX:PCA). Is a major oil and gas producer, with operations in Western Canada, off the East Coast and a growing international business. Operates national gas station chain.

Suncor Energy Inc.:

Quarterly Profits: $258 million, up from $26 million last year.

Company: Based in Calgary. Widely held. A major oilsands producer (TSX:SU) in northern Alberta. Has a chain of Sunoco gasoline stations in Ontario.

www.quicken.com Thursday, January 30, 2003 05:16 PM ET The Wall Street Journal Online

The economy is slowing, Iraq fears are growing, and profits are eroding.

That bearish refrain echoed on Wall Street again Thursday, making for another lousy trading day as weak gross-domestic-product and jobless reports plus news of a massive net loss at AOL Time Warner threw more water on the market.

Meanwhile, a coalition of European states said they'd throw their weight behind the U.S. in its effort to force Iraq to disarm, highlighting anew the immediacy of conflict.

Losses widened as the day dragged on, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ending down 165.58 points, or 2%, at 7945.13, while the Nasdaq composite lost 35.71, or 2.6%, to 1322.35. Treasurys climbed.

Wall Street woke up on the wrong side of the bed with early news from the Commerce Department reporting a marked slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth. The total value of all goods and services produced in the economy limped forward 0.7%, compared with 4% growth in the third quarter. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.6%. For the full year, GDP grew 2.4%, compared with 0.3% in 2001.

While the results weren't spectacular, the market showed a muted reaction, and some even found encouragement in the details despite the weak headline number.

"This is something of a relief -- a negative number, with its attendant unpleasant optics, was possible," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. "The big surprise here is that ... spending on equipment and software rose at a 5% pace. This is the third-straight gain ... it is very encouraging to see spending rise given the third-quarter drop in business confidence."

Meanwhile, initial jobless claims for the week ended Saturday rose 14,000, compared with a rise of 18,000 in the earlier week, the Labor Department said. Economists had forecast a smaller increase of 4,000.

After the close of trading Wednesday, AOL Time Warner posted a 2002 loss of $ 98.7 billion -- the widest annual corporate loss in history -- after taking a fourth-quarter charge of $45.5 billion, mostly to write down the value of its troubled America Online unit. The write-down was more than twice what Wall Street had anticipated. Its shares tumbled 14%.

The company also announced the resignation of Ted Turner as vice chairman, the latest in an exodus of senior executives.

Aside from AOL's news, equities traders are focusing on several major companies reporting earnings early Thursday.

Among them, Exxon Mobil reported a 53% jump in net income as concerns over unrest in Venezuela and war in Iraq lifted oil and gas prices and gave a considerable boost to the company's revenue. Its shares, which have shown strength of late, lost 2.3%.

After the close, earnings news continued to filter in. Dow component Walt Disney posted better-than-expected operating earnings, though net income sank to $256 million from $438 million.

AstraZeneca said its fourth-quarter profit fell 41% as the company put aside $ 350 million to cover a likely legal settlement. But sales at the Anglo-Swiss pharmaceutical company rose 12%. Its shares were up 3.9%.

After a rocky beginning Wednesday, the market turned higher to post a second straight day of gains. Traders got some help from a decision by Federal Reserve policy makers to leave target interest rates unchanged, and by the Fed's reassuring comment that, once geopolitical risks lift, the economy should improve. The Dow industrials, off almost 144 points early in the day, finished up 21.87. The Nasdaq composite, dominated by tech stocks, gained 1.2%.

In major U.S. market action Thursday:

Stocks sank. On the Big Board, where nearly 1.50 billion shares traded, 2,192 stocks fell and 1,081 rose. On the Nasdaq, where 1.44 billion shares changed hands, 2,230 stocks declined and 1,050 advanced.

Bonds were higher. The 10-year Treasury note gained about 3/8 point, or $3.75 for each $1,000 invested. The yield, which moves inversely to price, fell to 3.974%. The 30-year bond was up about 7/8 point to yield 4.858%.

The dollar was stronger. It traded at 119.01 yen, compared with 118.32 yen late Wednesday in New York, while the euro fell against the dollar to $1.0817 from $1.0841.

new.stockwatch.com

2003-01-30 13:02 - News Release ........declined due to this continuing shift towards an increasing proportion of projects in the early stages of execution. The recent events in Venezuela are having a significant impact on the progress of the $1 billion heavy oil upgrader project. In accordance with the contract, Fluor is entitled to cost and schedule relief for the impact of the ongoing national strike, and is also continuing to pursue dispute resolution on other issues with the client.

Fluor's Industrial & Infrastructure segment reported operating profit for the year of $53 million, ...............