J&J Snags Scios - The Motley Fool Take on Monday, February 10, 2003
www.fool.com
With gas prices surging and the threat of war looming, Americans may feel the need to bunker down to endure the long winter weeks ahead. But you can be proactive in battling the bills and the blues.
Today on Fool.com, Jeff Fischer reminds us that the media's daily barrage of gloom and doom should be taken with a grain of salt. And personal finance expert Robert Brokamp suggests 18 (yes, 18!) ways to cut fuel costs this season.
Six more weeks of winter? Bah! Are you gonna let a pesky groundhog get you down? We didn't think so.
In today's Motley Fool Take:
- J&J Snags Scios
- Quote of Note
- Cut Your Fuel Costs
- Shameless Plug: Help With Taxes and More
- SBC Fights for Hughes
- Discussion Board of the Day: UPS
- Quick Takes: ExxonMobil, IBM, Sun Microsystems, The Interpublic Group, more
- And Finally...
J&J Snags Scios
Affirming rumors, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) will indeed buy drug company Scios (Nasdaq: SCIO) for $2.4 billion in cash. When word of the deal leaked Friday, shares of Scios rose 22% to $42.20, and are up again today almost 4% to $44. Scios shareholders will get $45 a share from J&J. From its 1999 lows of just above $2 a share, it has been quite a ride.
Johnson & Johnson will acquire Scios to boost its drug pipeline. Much has been made of the smaller company's two-year-old congestive heart failure treatment, Natrecor. Scios expects the drug to generate sales of $160 million to $170 million in 2003, and it may eventually ring up $500 million in annual sales.
The more interesting story, though, is a drug awaiting approval. Scios' experimental rheumatoid arthritis treatment, SCIO-469, is in phase II trials and could be years away from approval. However, should the drug's promise hold up, sales could one day eclipse those expected for Natrecor.
Rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease in which the body's own defenses turn against it and attack the sufferer's joints. It's a crippling and incredibly painful illness with no cure.
SCIO-469 is creating a good deal of buzz because of the way it works. The drug blocks the p38 kinase enzyme responsible for stimulating inflammation-causing proteins, such as TNF and COX-2. Other companies are also attempting to create a p38-inhibiting drug, but this one is in the most advanced testing stages.
Another great thing about SCIO-469, compared to existing rheumatoid arthritis treatments, is its dosage. Amgen's (Nasdaq: AMGN) Enbrel, J&J's own Remicade, and Abbott Lab's (NYSE: ABT) Humira are all given as injections. SCIO-469 would likely be approved in pill form, a huge advantage.
One thing must be underlined, though. SCIO-469 hasn't been approved, and similar drugs in the past have been shot down because of safety concerns. Still, J&J will get ahold of an existing successful drug and a potentially promising one -- a healthy dose of optimism for the drug maker.
Quote of Note
"My problem lies in reconciling my gross habits with my net income." -- Errol Flynn (1909-1959), actor
Cut Your Fuel Costs
Americans are paying an average of $1.60 per gallon of gas, according to the Lundberg survey of more than 7,000 gas stations nationwide. That's an 11-cent increase over the past two weeks, and the highest price since June 2001.
The causes are clear: strikes in Venezuela, a possible war with Iraq, and the failure of the controversial "Turn your teenager's face into oil profits" program.
You can't control the cost of a barrel of crude, but you can take steps to cut your heating bills. Here are a few tips:
- Properly insulate your house. Check the attics, walls, and basement/crawl space, especially the spaces between the floorboards and joists.
- Seal the leaks. Go around the outside walls of your house with a candle, particularly the windows, doors, electrical outlets, and baseboards. If the flame flickers, it might be due to a tiny crack that lets hot air out and cold air in. Seal it with caulk or weather stripping.
- Warm your windows. Anywhere from 25% to 40% of heat loss is due to windows. One solution: Put a blanket or, better yet, a sheet of plastic or a shrink-wrap product (available at hardware stores) around the window. This will block drafts and create an insulating pocket of air.
- Humidify the house. Moist air feels warmer than dry air.
- Give your furnace a checkup. Clean filters can make a furnace 10% more efficient. Also, if the heating ducts are in an unheated area (such as the attic), they should be insulated.
- Install a digital thermostat. By turning down your thermostat when you go to work and turning it back up when you get home, you could save $300 this year. A digital thermostat -- which costs about $30 and is a breeze to install -- can regulate the temperature for you.
- Close crawl space vents. If you have a crawl space, there are probably vents around the foundation of your house. Close 'em up for the winter, but make sure you reopen them in the summer to prevent moisture from accumulating.
- Turn on ceiling fans. Since hot air rises, a fan on low will circulate the heat throughout the room.
- Move to Cuba. We hear Guantanamo Bay is very popular these days.
Read the full Take to learn 9 more ways to save on your gas bills....
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SBC Fights for Hughes
Who's getting Hughes (NYSE: GMH)? Another company's hat is in the ring today, after SBC Communications (NYSE: SBC) is said to be considering a $10 billion bid for the DirecTV owner.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) owns 80% of Hughes. After regulators quashed EchoStar's (Nasdaq: DISH) $18 billion bid, the auto maker has been trying to sell off all or part of the satellite TV unit. Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) has long-lusted after Hughes like a money-hungry girl for Joe Millionaire, and SBC's move could throw a serious kink into its plans.
SBC is the country's second-largest local telephone provider. What does it want with a satellite TV company? SBC hopes Hughes and DirecTV can help it compete more effectively against cable companies like Cox (NYSE: COX) and Comcast (Nasdaq: CMCSK), which are increasingly stepping on the toes of local phone companies. Additionally, as core business revenues decline (SBC anticipates 2003 sales will drop off by a low, single-digit percentage), DirecTV could give the company other much-needed revenue streams.
With declining revenues and more than five times as much long-term debt as cash, though, now might not be the time for SBC to branch out into the satellite market. Besides, it's common knowledge that Murdoch and Co. don't give up easily when they've got their minds set on something. Like another episode of Celebrity Boxing, this fight could get ugly.
Discussion Board of the Day: UPS
After its announcement that pink slips are in the pipeline for pilots, can United Parcel Service bounce back, or is this just a clever yet cruel negotiation ploy between the company and its pilots union? Can its strength in international business cover for its domestic shortcomings? All this and more -- in the UPS discussion board. Only on Fool.com.
Quick Takes
With the Middle East being much more of a hot spot than usual, oil companies are looking elsewhere for oil (for example, Alaska). The England-based oil giant BP (NYSE: BP) aims to invest more than $4 billion in what will be Russia's third-largest oil company -- a firm formed by the merger of three smaller oil companies. It would be one of the world's top 10 producers. Meanwhile, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) plans to spend some $10 billion developing new oil resources in West Africa.
Did you know that when you use a credit card overseas, you get slapped with currency-conversion fees and other surcharges by Visa, Mastercard, and many card-issuing banks? Apparently, many people were unaware, and a suit has been filed against Visa and Mastercard. In a preliminary decision, a judge involved ruled against the card companies, raising the possibility that they'll be forced to refund $500 million or more.
Heating oil prices spiked up some 20% last week, and with the vast majority of U.S. heating oil households in the Northeast, Sens. John Kerry and Edward Kennedy have asked President Bush to release $100 million in Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program funds to follow $200 million released a few weeks ago.
While IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) try to eat its lunch, Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: SUNW) is fighting back. Sun launched a new technology called "blades," along with some new, aggressively priced hardware. It also boosted the strength and lowered the price of some of its existing products. According to Dow Jones, blades technology involves building computers "out of many small circuit boards, known as blades, that are placed in racks vertically -- like books on a shelf -- instead of larger boards that are stacked horizontally."
The Interpublic Group (NYSE: IPG), the advertising company and parent to McCann-Erickson WorldGroup, Lowe Group, and more, is facing the prospect of its debt being reduced to "junk" status. In order to prevent this and prop itself up, it has put on the block its NFO WorldGroup unit, hoping to close a deal by March. Early bidders include the U.K.'s WPP Group (Nasdaq: WPPGY), parent of Young & Rubicam and Ogilvy & Mather, which offered up to $400 million for the company. Fool analyst Bill Mann wrote positively about WPP Group in Stocks 2003, our guide to many promising companies for the year ahead -- check it out.
And Finally...
Today on Fool.com:
- For updated stories throughout the day, bookmark our ever-changing News section.
- Bombs Away, Everyday: The media's fear factor may be hurting our economy. Jeff Fischer says enough's enough.
- UPS delivers pink slips to pilots. Will the package specialist shape up or ship out?
- The battle over taxes on Internet commerce heats up.
- Matt Richey explains why a portfolio of eight to 10 stocks might be your best bet for beating the market.
- In Fool's School, what's the point of renter's insurance, and is it necessary?
Contributors:
Bob Bobala, Robert Brokamp, Jeff Fischer, Tom Jacobs, LouAnn Lofton, Bill Mann, Selena Maranjian, Rex Moore, Rick Munarriz, Matt Richey, Jackie Ross, Reggie Santiago, Dayana Yochim
The Motley Fool is investors writing for investors. To view a writer's current stock holdings, check out his or her online personal profile.
Sabre-rattling pushes oil to two-year highs - Manufacturers fear rise will spark slump in Canada and U.S.
www.nationalpost.com
Tony Seskus
Financial Post, with files from wire services
Saturday, February 08, 2003
CALGARY - More sabre-rattling by George W. Bush, the U.S. President, drove oil prices to two-year highs yesterday, stoking fears in the Canadian manufacturing sector rising energy prices could bring an economic slowdown.
Mr. Bush said the United Nations Security Council must enforce its resolution on disarming Iraq, adding the council would be weakened if it allowed Saddam Hussein "to deny and deceive" the UN, whose inspectors are searching Iraq for chemical and biological weapons. Adding to the global tension was Washington's decision to increase its terrorism alert status to orange from yellow, citing an intelligence warning of a "high risk" of terrorist attack.
Prices also rose as low U.S. inventories of heating oil and gasoline sent prices of those products soaring.
U.S. crude rose US$1.09 to hit US$35.25 a barrel -- the highest level since November, 2000 -- extending a 20% price surge this week before dipping to close at US$35.12, up US$96¢. London crude oil hit US$32.50 a barrel, also a two-year high, and last traded at US$32.34, up US90¢.
Oil prices in New York have climbed 79% in the past year, from a low of US$19.64 last February, on Middle East tensions and a long-running strike in Venezuela that has crippled its oil production and tightened global supplies.
The news added to fears energy prices could knock back the U.S. economy. And concerns are growing over how high fuel prices will affect Canadian firms.
"Looking back a couple of years ago, high energy costs were one of the big factors in weakening the manufacturing sector in the U.S.," said Jayson Myers, chief economist of the Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters.
"And if that happens again this time, I think Canadian companies could be faced with a situation where their cost of doing business is going up and their market is actually weakening because of the impact on U.S. industry."
Mr. Myers said companies reliant on oil face a considerable increase in energy costs that will force them to cut spending in other ways to maintain profit margins. "It's going to put further pressure on the bottom line" he said.
"Probably some companies will be looking at downsizing their labour force in some way or having to become much more efficient in what they're doing in order to overcome some of those higher costs."
The U.S. government also said it expected crude oil will stay above US$30 a barrel, on average, throughout 2003 and gasoline prices will rise to near-record highs this spring due to tight crude oil supplies and dwindling inventories.
Judith Dwarkin, chief economist at Ross Smith Energy Group in Calgary, said Canadian oil and gas companies are benefiting from sustained high commodity prices, but added they are also slowing the economy as a whole.
"In macro terms, it's supplying some brakes to our economy," she said. "The cost of transporting goods, the cost of flying, all those things are higher than they would otherwise be, so it's not good from the economic point of view overall."
She said high oil prices will prove a particular challenge to the United States. "The U.S. economy is already driving into an economic headwind," she said.
tseskus@nationalpost.com
Payrolls surge but economic worries linger
economictimes.indiatimes.com
REUTERS[ SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 08, 2003 11:46:07 PM ]
WASHINGTON: The U.S. economy added jobs at the fastest rate in more than two years in January and the jobless rate sank to a four-month low of 5.7 per cent, kindling hopes the recovery might be gathering strength.
But some analysts cautioned the strength in Friday's closely watched jobs report was exaggerated by quirks in retail hiring and the way in which the government smooths out the payrolls series to account for seasonal fluctuations.
Stocks failed to gain ground on the report, which was overshadowed in financial markets by a government alert about a possible terrorist threat and by a growing sense that a U.S. war with Iraq might be drawing near.
Payrolls outside the farm sector jumped by 143,000 -- more than double the 70,000 expected by economists and the biggest rise since November 2000, before the recession set in, the Labor Department said. Jobs fell 156,000 in December.
The unemployment rate hit its lowest level since September and was three tenths of a per centage point lower than December's 6 per cent.
"The surge in payrolls is clearly suggesting that we may be turning the corner of a very stagnant job market," said Anthony Chan, chief economist at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, Ohio.
But Chan warned: "We should not forget that virtually 70 per cent of the rise in the payrolls was due to seasonal factor glitches associated with the retail sector."
The jobs data pushed bonds down initially, but they later staged a comeback as stocks faltered. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial average fell 65 points to 7,864. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index fell 19 points to 1,282.
Retailers in the final months of 2002 anticipated that consumers would stay away from the shops, frightened off by weak economic prospects and uncertainties about a potential war with Iraq. So they hired fewer seasonal workers than they typically do in the holiday season.
But with fewer temporary workers on the payrolls, there were not as many layoffs in January as the Labor Department's seasonal adjustment process expected and that meant the latest month's hiring trends appeared very strong.
"There were some elements of exaggeration in the payroll numbers," said Henry Willmore, chief U.S. economist, Barclays Capital in New York.
Underscoring fears the economy might not be out of the woods, the a report from the Federal Reserve showed that consumers pulled back sharply on their accumulation of credit- card debt late last year.
The Fed said consumer debt fell by $4.0 billion in December, the largest drop since a $5.8 billion drop in December 1990, when the U.S. economy was in the throes of recession.
In per centage terms, consumer debt declined at a 2.75 per cent annual rate in December, the biggest monthly decline since a 3 per cent drop in April 1992.
The data surprised Wall Street analysts who expected consumer debt to rise in December.
With economic signals mixed, analysts did not shift their expectations about future Federal Reserve policy moves based on Friday's data. Most economists think the central bank will keep interest rates at four-decade lows of 1.25 per cent for now.
President Bush, pushing for congressional approval for his $695 billion tax cut plan, said he wants to see more improvement in the job market and the broad economy.
"The economy is in its second consecutive year of growth, yet it is not growing fast enough," Bush said at a ceremonial swearing-in for Treasury Secretary John Snow.
The president released his "Economic Report of the President," which forecast faster economic growth and played down the impact of his sweeping tax-cut proposals on government debt and interest rates.
Critics have charged the package is too tilted toward the wealthy and that it will deepen budgetary red ink.
The U.S. economy suffered a sharp slowdown in the final three months of last year, limping along at an annual rate of just 0.7 per cent.
But there have been a few hints of improvement lately, with some data series showing manufacturing reviving. Within the jobs report, there were gains in employment in a variety of sectors, though factory jobs fell by 16,000.
Despite glimmers of hope in the jobs report, it was clear the labor market is far from fully recovered.
Workers did not pocket any gains in their average hourly earnings, which stayed steady in January at $14.98 after a 0.3 per cent rise in December. The work week expanded slightly to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in the prior month.
The sluggish trends in the labor market over recent months have caused some economists to draw comparisons with the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990s, when economic growth returned without solid hiring.
In a separate report on Friday, the Commerce Department said inventories at U.S. wholesalers surged 0.8 per cent in December, posting the biggest gain since the summer of 2000.
While higher inventories can sometimes be a sign businesses are seeing disappointing demand and accumulating unwanted stocks of goods, the latest data were inconclusive.
Some inventory-building may have been caused by stockpiling of petroleum amid worries over a possible war with Iraq and a production halt in Venezuela, a major oil-producing nation.
Emerging Debt-Up, Brazil hope trumps war fear, for now
www.forbes.com
Reuters, 02.07.03, 11:34 AM ET
By Hugh Bronstein
NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Bolstered by hope that Brazil will increase its budget surplus target in a show of fiscal prudence, emerging market sovereign bond prices edged higher on Friday despite fear that a coming war against Iraq will scare investors into safer markets.
"Money is still chasing yield for the time being," said Americo DaCorte, managing partner at Latin World Asset Management in New York.
"So I would not be surprised if, in the short term, you see emerging market bond prices grind higher," he said. "If we have a war, that's another story."
Benchmark Brazil C bonds <BRAZILC=RR> rose 5/8 to bid 69-3/4 as traders waited for a late-afternoon news conference by Brazilian Finance Minister Antonio Palocci, who is expected to unveil a new surplus target. The conference is scheduled for 4 p.m. local time(1800 GMT).
Markets are widely expecting Palocci to hike the budget surplus -- which excludes debt payments -- to around 4.3 percent of gross domestic product from the current target of 3.75 percent of GDP.
"This would signal that (President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva) is adopting a policy of fiscal and monetary prudence," said Martin Schubert, chairman of the European Inter-American Finance Corp., a Miami-based emerging markets debt trading and fund management firm.
Lula, a one-time radical union leader who won last year's election after shifting his rhetoric from left to center, took office at the start of the year.
"He's giving all the right signals in this honeymoon period, but the key test remains his ability to pass social security and tax reforms that will allow the government to reduce its internal debt," Schubert said.
Emerging market bond spreads tightened 7 basis points to 726 over U.S. Treasuries, according to JP Morgan's Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus. Brazil's portion of the market tightened 20 basis points to 1,309.
Tighter spreads reflect the perception of decreased risk as measured against safe-haven U.S. Treasury bonds.
Despite the war jitters, which have shaken markets around the world, total returns as measured by the EMBI-Plus have risen by 2 percent since the start of the year. Brazilian returns are up 5.1 percent since Jan. 1 as optimism about Lula grows.
VENEZUELA STABILIZES AFTER SELL-OFF
Venezuela spreads tightened by 14 basis points to 1,318 over Treasuries on Friday after a sell-off spawned by the government's move on Thursday to impose foreign exchange and price controls.
Vowing to starve his foes of dollars, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announced the measures to shore up an economy reeling from a two-month opposition strike.
Venezuela total returns, which include accrued interest and price movements, have fallen 5.5 percent so far this year as the country contends with its political crisis.
Chavez, who has defied opposition demands that he resign, said payments to foreign bond holders will be given top priority under the new foreign exchange system. But Wall Street analysts said the new currency regime may invite corruption and hurt confidence.
Americas Markets Fall as Wall Street Struggles
sg.biz.yahoo.com
Saturday February 8, 9:34 AM
A Wall Street Journal Online News Roundup
Americas markets fell Friday, tracking Wall Street lower after a terror alert from the Bush administration and the release of mixed U.S. economic data.
In Toronto, the S&P/TSX index fell 0.2% to 6477.74, as downward pressure from New York was offset by strength in the energy and health-care sectors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 65.07 points to 7864.23, its lowest close since Oct. 11.
Six of Toronto's 10 sector fell and one, information technology, remained unchanged. The energy sector rose 0.4%. In the group, EnCana rose 37 Canadian cents to C$47.48, Shell Canada rose 29 Canadian cents to C$46.00 and Petro-Canada rose 35 Canadian cents to C$50.90.
John Kinsey, portfolio manager at Caldwell Securities, said the threat of war in the Middle East continues to firm up oil and gas prices.
But the biggest winner of the day was the health-care sector, which rose nearly 3%, on heavyweight pharmaceutical company Biovail's announcement of final U.S. regulatory approval for its key hypertension product, Cardizem LA. The stock gained C$4.43 to C$47.48.
Meanwhile, the industrials sector shed 0.9%, as airline Air Canada gave up another 42 Canadian cents to C$42.65 after reporting a huge fourth-quarter loss and announcing possible asset sales Thursday.
In Mexico City, the key IPC index fell 0.5% to 5866.03. Most Mexican stocks followed U.S. counterparts lower, but broadcaster TV Azteca posted sharp gains as investors cheered its plan to pay dividends.
TV Azteca's CPOs soared 8.7% to 3.25 pesos after the company announced its board has approved plans to use a large chunk of its anticipated free cash flow over the next six years to pay shareholders more than $500 million in dividends on a regular basis. The broadcaster plans to use an additional $250 million of free cash to pay down its $647 million debt load.
Merrill Lynch raised its recommendation on the stock Friday to "buy" from "sell" based on the plan. Merrill also upgraded retailer Elektra, which has the same chairman as TV Azteca, to "buy" from "sell," citing a "halo effect" from the greater cash-flow discipline at its sister company. Elektra's shares rose 3.8% to 21.80 pesos.
Among decliners, cement group Cemex's CPOs shed 2.9% to 39.13 pesos and retailer Walmex's V shares dropped 2.1% to 23.86 pesos.
The main Bovespa index in Sao Paulo lost 1.8% to 10380.59 despite news Brazil hiked its 2003 primary budget-surplus target to 4.25% of gross domestic product -- higher than market expectations of 4%, according to a central bank survey.
The new goal exceeds the 3.75% level mandated in a $30 billion International Monetary Fund rescue package brokered in August and reassures investors the new government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is working to ease the weight of Brazil's hefty debt load.
Elsewhere in the region and unlike its neighbors, Argentina saw it Merval Index add 1% to 564.89. Perez Companc, the market's most liquid share, rose 1.3% to 2.29 Argentine pesos.
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