Adamant: Hardest metal

$ crash hits oil producers’ purchase power

<a href=www.timesofoman.com>Times of Oman, By Our Special Correspondent

MUSCAT — The purchasing power of oil producers has been largely hit by the fall in the value of dollar.

Abdullah bin Hamad Al Attiyah, president of Opec and Qatar’s minister of energy and industry, told the 125th extraordinary meeting of the orgainsation in Qatar that the falling value of the US dollar, especially against the euro was a matter of concern to the global economy.

Attiyah said the fall in the value dollar has negatively affected the purchasing power of oil producers’ revenues. Oil inventories in industrialised countries are relatively tight for this time of the year. This may serve to support oil prices in the coming months.

The conference has reviewed the decision taken on April 24, 2003, to reduce Opec-10’s actual production by two million barrels per day from the levels that prevailed during the events in Iraq, when oil producers increased output so as to assure consumers of steady supplies of crude during that period.

Opec chief said the fact that the cuts came into force on June 1, just 10 days ago, means that they have had little time to work their way through the market’s supply/demand balance, even though their influence on the psychology of the market was noticed much earlier.

“We have seen this reflected in the oil price trends, which has strengthened over the past months and the market is settling down again. However, we are still faced with uncertainty in several key areas,” Attiyah added.

The pace and the extent of the return of Iraqi crude to the market remain unclear at the present time, as this country, with its proud Opec heritage, seeks to re-establish itself on the world energy scene.

He welcomed observers from many leading non-Opec oil-exporting nations — Angola, Oman, Mexico, Russia and Syria — who have so often in the past been supportive to its efforts towards a stable and fair market. The presence of non-Opec countries emphasises once again the need for the co-operation of all parties in the petroleum industry – including consumers — if we are to achieve order and stability.

Harmony and understanding should prevail at all times in the oil market, to help it meet the energy needs of all nations — in a world that is increasingly aware of the importance of stable and secure energy supplies to the process of sustainable development, Attiyah said.

Though there was no decision on any future output cut, non-Opec producers believe that Opec would not allow the 1999 level of $10-a-barrel to repeat and its target of $25 a barrel for a basket of seven crude prices is reasonable.

Over the last six months, Opec member countries increased production significantly to accommodate supply disruptions in Venezuela, Nigeria and Iraq. The Vienna meet in April had reviewed estimated supply/demand levels for the second quarter of 2003 and decided to reduce actual production by 2mbpd (million barrels per day) to 25.4mbpd, effective from June 1.

The aggregate production levels for Opec-10 (Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela) has changed even more than one occasion.

Having reviewed the current oil market situation, as well as supply/demand prospects for the second half of the year, yesterday’s conference noted that stability had been maintained in the market following the decision taken by the conference in April 2003 to reduce actual production to 25.4 mbpd with prices remaining within agreed levels. Nevertheless, the conference also noted that despite the fact that the market remains well-supplied, prices displayed an upward trend, recently, due to the slower-than-anticipated recovery in Iraqi production, coupled with unusually low stock levels. However, with low stock levels anticipated to be replenished during the third quarter, the Conference decided to maintain currently agreed production levels, with strict compliance, and emphasised that continued vigilance in monitoring market developments is imperative over the coming period.

Study: Pace Slows for New Millionaires

Posted on Wed, Jun. 11, 2003 EILEEN ALT POWELL The News Sentinel-Associated Press

NEW YORK - The ranks of the world's millionaires increased in 2002, but at a slower pace than in the past because of weak global economies and stock market declines.

An annual study released Wednesday estimates that there were 7.3 million people in the world with financial assets of $1 million or more at the end of 2002, up 2.1 percent from the previous year. The increase, down from 3 percent in 2001, was the lowest rise in the survey's seven-year history.

The numbers of millionaires actually dropped last year in North America, which includes Canada and the United States, and in Latin America, but rose in other regions.

The wealth these people have amassed, meanwhile, grew 3.6 percent in 2002 to $27.2 trillion, compared with growth of 3 percent in 2001 to $26.2 trillion, the study showed. In market boom years such as 1999, millionaires saw their wealth grow as much as 18 percent.

The "World Wealth Report" was prepared by the Merrill Lynch brokerage firm and the Cap Gemini Ernst & Young consulting firm.

Brokers, bankers and other financial experts watch the figures closely because people with high net worth tend to be their best customers, although they represent just a small fraction of the world's 6.3 billion people.

James P. Gorman, executive vice president of Merrill Lynch and head of its private client group, said that the fact that there were more millionaires in the world despite global economic difficulties "reflects the resilience of this very attractive market segment."

The study predicts, too, that their wealth will increase an average of 7 percent a year over the next five years to $38 trillion at the end of 2007.

Gorman said that wealthy individuals were not hurt as badly by stock market declines because they tend to be conservative investors.

He said that the typical high net worth individual last year had 30 percent invested in fixed-income instruments such as bonds and 25 percent in cash, with just 20 percent in equities. Their other holdings included 15 percent invested in real estate and 10 percent in alternative investments, such as hedge funds.

That shows, he said, that "a properly diversified portfolio is resilient even in the most difficult market environments."

James S. Greene, a vice president at Cap Gemini, said that the wealthy were helped in both preserving and increasing their assets by an average of seven to nine financial advisers, from planners to accountants, brokers and lawyers.

He said that those who are less wealthy may not be able to hire advisers but can benefit from the growing amount of financial data available on the Internet.

"There's an abundance of information available, whether you're worth $30 million or $3 million or $30,000," he said.

He added: "The industry continues to move down the stream, toward that (smaller) investor with tools, products and services."

On a regional basis, the number of millionaires declined in North America, where stock markets fell sharply, and in Latin America, where economic and political turmoil took a toll, the report said. Their ranks increased, meanwhile, in Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Europe, it said.

The study's regional breakdown:

_ Europe. The region with the largest number of millionaires, Europe saw the ranks of its high net worth individuals rise 3.9 percent to about 2.6 million, while their wealth rose 4.8 percent to $8.8 trillion.

The report cited strong economic growth in emerging European economies and appreciation of the euro and British sterling against the dollar.

_ North America. The number of millionaires fell 1.9 percent to about 2.2 million, while their wealth fell 2.1 percent to $7.4 trillion.

Problems from weak economic growth were compounded by "a significant drop in stock market capitalization and decrease in savings rates," the report said.

_ Asia-Pacific. This region had the strongest growth in both the number of high net worth individuals, up 4.9 percent, to 1.8 million people, and wealth, up 10.7 percent to $5.7 trillion.

The report said solid economic growth and continued high savings rates outweighed mixed market and currency performances.

Latin America. The number of high net worth individuals declined 3.6 percent to 300,000, but their wealth rose 2.7 percent to $3.6 trillion.

The report noted that economic growth was weak in Brazil and Mexico, while the oil crisis in Venezuela and crash of the Argentine peso sparked recession.

_ Middle East. The number of wealthy individuals rose 4.7 percent to 300,000, while their wealth increased 4.6 percent to $1.1 trillion.

_ Africa. The region saw its wealthy population increase 4.9 percent to 100,000, while their wealth rose 4.3 percent to $600 billion.

ON THE NET www.ml.com www.cgey.com

WRAPUP 1-U.S. blue chips rise on recovery hope, oil jumps

Reuters, 06.06.03, 6:10 PM ET  By Mike Miller NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - U.S. blue-chip stocks eked out slight gains on Friday amid renewed hopes for an economic recovery, while bond prices inched lower after U.S. employment figures hinted at mild improvement in the troubled U.S. labor market. The dollar vaulted higher, lifted in part by a May U.S. jobs report was not as dire as expected and sparked hope that the economy is on the mend. But the greenback's rise sent gold prices lower. In New York, oil prices hit 11-week highs above $31 a barrel as OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela sought assurances that nonmember Mexico would follow the cartel in any move to tighten supply. The Nasdaq Composite index finished lower on near-record volume as investors booked profits from a rally on news ofOracle Corp.'s (nasdaq: ORCL - news - people) proposed takeover of software rival PeopleSoft Inc. (nasdaq: ORCL - news - people). The broad Standard & Poor's 500 index also ended Friday's session slightly lower. But all three major stock indexes still managed to end the week higher, marking a second consecutive week of gains. "The most critical piece of news ... is Oracle's bid for PeopleSoft," said Keith Keenan, vice president of institutional trading at brokerage Wall Street Access. "That means Oracle is confident about the economy going forward, and they think earnings are going to hold up." A government report showing U.S. payrolls shrank by only 17,000 jobs in May, a much smaller decline than expected, helped investors' sentiment as the data hinted of improving conditions in the weak labor market. The same report, though, showed the U.S. unemployment rate rose in May to 6.1 percent, the highest since July 1994, from April's 6 percent. But this was in line with Wall Street's expectations. The blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> rose 21.49 points or 0.24 percent to finish at 9,062.79, after hitting a session high of 9,215.88. The Standard & Poor's 500 index <.SPX> fell 2.38 points, or 0.24 percent, to 987.76, after earlier rising above 1,000 for the first time in about a year. The tech-driven Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> closed down 18.59 points, or 1.13 percent, at 1,627.42. For the week, the Dow rose 2.4 percent, the S&P 500 gained 2.51 percent and the Nasdaq advanced 1.97 percent. Since hitting their 2003 lows on March 11, the Dow has risen about 20 percent, the S&P 500 has added about 23 percent, and the Nasdaq has gained about 28 percent. "The correction which has been in the cards for the last number of days has finally gotten under way, with investors using the weekend as an excuse to take some money off the table," said John Simon of TradeSignals.com. Stock trading was heavy, with more than 1.83 billion shares traded on the Big Board and 2.95 billion changing hands on Nasdaq, a record for the year and the fourth-largest daily volume in Nasdaq's history. Tech stocks got a boost earlier from the soaring shares of PeopleSoft, up almost 18 percent, after Oracle, the world's No. 2 software maker, offered to buy PeopleSoft for $5.1 billion. PeopleSoft shares, the most active on Nasdaq, jumped $2.71 to $17.82, while Oracle's stock fell 27 cents to $13.09. In the U.S. Treasury market, the 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> bucked the lower trend in debt markets, climbing 5/32 to 115-17/32, pushing its yield down to 4.40 percent from Thursday's 4.41 percent. The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> fell 2/32 to 102-09/32, boosting its yield to 3.35 percent from a four-decade low of 3.24 percent reached on Thursday. The euro slumped to a session low of $1.1686 <EUR=>, a loss of more than 1 percent, before climbing back to $1.1701 at the close of U.S. currency trading. That was below the euro's late Thursday level of $1.1841 in New York. The dollar surged to a session high of 118.92 <JPY=> against the Japanese yen, up more than 1 percent, before easing back to 118.69 yen at the close. That was above the dollar's late Thursday level of 117.63 yen in U.S. trading. Gold's tight correlation with the volatile euro has been reliable for days. On the Commodity Exchange in New York, gold for August delivery fell $5 to end at $364.50 an ounce. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude oil jumped 54 cents to settle at $31.28 a barrel, hitting its highest price since March 19. Overseas, the FTSE Eurotop 300 index <.FTEU3> of pan-European blue-chip shares closed up 2.24 percent at 856.24. The Nikkei average <.N225> ended 1.49 percent up at 8,785.87, its highest close since Jan. 23.

Commodities-Oil and soybeans rally, gold ends lower

Reuters, 06.06.03, 5:23 PM ET CHICAGO (Reuters) - Crude oil prices closed higher on Friday and pushed above $31 a barrel to 11-week highs amid expectations that world oil producers would come to some agreement in the next few days on restraining output. In other featured commodity trade, gold fell back as the dollar gained some ground on the euro in currency markets and softened gold demand out of Europe. Soybeans surged on rumors that imports by China may grow, and on strength in domestic processor bids. At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for July delivery closed 54 cents higher at $31.28 a barrel. The gains came as oil ministers from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, two leaders of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, met the oil minister of non-OPEC exporter Mexico in Madrid ahead of OPEC's June 11 policy meeting. In London, the International Petroleum Exchange July Brent crude contract settled 36 cents higher at $27.80 a barrel. Venezuelan oil minister Rafael Ramirez, speaking in Madrid shortly before the meeting with Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi and non-OPEC Mexico's oil minister Ernesto Martens, said OPEC was prepared to make output cuts if necessary. Iraq, which can export more than two million barrels a day, is scheduled to restart oil exports soon. The U.S. advisor to the Iraqi oil ministry said on Friday he expected exports to reach about 1 million barrels per day by July. But with oil prices now near the top of OPEC's $22-$28 target band, some ministers have said they see no need for OPEC to cut output limits when it meets next Wednesday in Qatar. NYMEX oil prices have also risen 20 percent in the past month. After the NYMEX market closed on Friday, the three ministers issued a statement after their Madrid meeting saying that current world oil markets were balanced but the three countries would continue to coordinate on oil policy. The three were architects of drastic oil curbs that helped revive depressed prices in 1998 and 1999. Norway and Russia cooperated on production policy to varying degrees to halt a price slide in early 2002. NYMEX July gasoline closed 0.83 cent higher at 89.35 cents a gallon and July heating oil rose 0.95 cent at 78.18 cents.

DOWN DAY FOR GOLD At the COMEX in New York, gold prices closed lower after a smaller-than-expected drop in U.S. payrolls shored up the dollar. COMEX August gold fell $5 at $364.50 an ounce. Gold continued to be tied to the soaring euro, which has boosted the buying power of European investors for dollar denominated gold. Gold hit 15-week highs last week as the euro made a record high at $1.1932, with speculators hoping to ride gold's rally back to February's six-year highs near $390. "Right now I think everyone is getting chopped up with the mixed signals and volatility," said Robert Gottlieb, head of bullion dealing at HSBC. "Today's number obviously took people by surprise." The euro's rally was thwarted by U.S. Labor Department news that May nonfarm payrolls fell 17,000, less than the 39,000 drop expected, amid concerns about a "jobless recovery." Spot gold bullion fell to $363.50/4.00 from the prior close at $368.50/9.00. The afternoon fix in London was $363.00. The dollar's surge lowered the euro to $1.1702/05 at midafternoon from $1.1841/47 late Thursday. The Dow Jones industrial average also edged higher, diluting gold demand. At the Chicago Board of Trade, a strong rally in soybeans was tied to talk that China, the number one soy importer, may have to import more than projected in the coming year if dryness in its northern Plains turns into drought. Rumors circulated that China had bought 100,000 metric tons or more of South American soybean oil late this week. Meanwhile, processors in the United States were bidding higher to acquire beans to keep plants operating before the autumn harvest. Due to last year's drought and huge exports to China, U.S. soybean stocks are forecast to fall to seven-year lows by September -- less than two weeks' supply. Soybeans for July delivery closed 12-3/4 cents a bushel higher at $6.31-1/2, with July soybean meal up $5.90 per short ton at $193.80 and July soybean oil up 0.24 cent a pound at 22.32 cents.July corn was buoyed by those gains and closed up 3 cents at $2.38-3/4. July wheat ended unchanged at $3.20-1/2.

NYMEX oil retreats after topping $31 as trio meets

Reuters, 06.06.03, 12:10 PM ET NEW YORK, June 6 (Reuters) - NYMEX crude oil held steady at midday Friday after retreating from an early move above $31 as oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico gathered in Madrid to discuss oil output policy prior to OPEC's June 11 meeting, traders said. Prices hit $31 in ACCESS, met resistance under $31 in the early going today, and then retreated from resistance in the $31.13 area after finally topping $31 this morning. At 1204 EDT (1604 GMT), NYMEX July crude was 8 cents firmer at $30.82 a barrel after retreating from an early peak of $31.15. Traders had said they would watch any rally that challenges the double top of the $31.25 set on April 21 and the $31.30 and $31.32 peaks scaled on March 31 and April 1, respectively. Technical analysts on Friday were expecting nearby resistance for NYMEX July crude at $31.25, with support slated at $29.65 [nL06604353]. In London, the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) July crude traded 18 cents higher at $27.62 a barrel. Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said on Friday OPEC was prepared to make output cuts if necessary to keep prices within OPEC's $22-$28 price range [nL06588529]. Ramirez was speaking in Madrid shortly before the meeting with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi and non-OPEC Mexico's Oil Minister Ernesto Martens. He said he expected Mexico, Norway and Russia to contribute to any future OPEC cuts needed to support oil prices. The one-day talks [nL06566136] in Madrid, set for 1600 GMT, will have the ministers representing the three countries that were architects of drastic oil curbs that helped revive depressed prices in 1998 and 1999. The return of Iraq exports will also be on OPEC's agenda. The U.S. advisor to the Iraqi oil ministry said on Friday he expected exports to reach about one million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of June [nL06557069]. However, analysts said on Thursday recent high prices could have made OPEC reluctant to cut output [nL04178763]. Iraq's State Oil Marketing Organization announced a tender on Thursday to sell crude from storage, lifting in the second half of June. But a return to prewar production levels must overcome the post-war looting that has damaged the infrastructure. NYMEX July gasoline was 0.08 cent higher at 88.60 cents a gallon, off its high of 89.50 cents that was just below resistance expected at 89.60 cents. NYMEX July heating oil futures were 0.13 cent lower at 77.10 cents a gallon, having moved in and out of positive territory.

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