Reuters, 02.18.03, 6:20 AM ET By Tom Ashby LONDON, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell further from two-year highs on Tuesday as a diplomatic battle between Europe and the United States over Iraq eased fears of a supply disruption from the world's eighth largest oil exporter. International benchmark Brent crude oil fell four cents to $31.88 per barrel, its second consecutive day of falls, having hit a two-year high of $33.10 last week. U.S. crude futures, which were closed on Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday, fell 74 cents to $36.06. "I don't think anyone is naive enough to think war clouds have gone away for good, but they are being held in check for a while at least," a London-based broker said. "An attack at the end of February through to the middle of March still seems almost inevitable," said Lawrence Eagles of brokers GNI. European Union leaders united on Monday to warn Iraq that United Nations arms inspections could not go on indefinitely without Baghdad's cooperation and declared for the first time that war could be the last resort. But the 15 leaders, bitterly divided over the Iraq crisis, failed to agree on how much time Baghdad should be given to rid itself of suspected weapons of mass destruction. The split prompted the United States and Britain to look at other ways to get the Security Council to support a new resolution on Iraq. But no draft is expected to emerge before Wednesday, with both nations waiting for the end of a public debate by countries without seats on the 15-member Security Council. That session, expected to turn into another forum against U.S. war plans, begins on Tuesday afternoon and will spill into Wednesday.

BAD WEATHER, STRIKES Oil prices took some support from bad weather in northeast United States, the country's largest consumer of heating oil, a two-month-old strike in Venezuela and a strike by Nigerian oil workers which began on Saturday. Heavy blizzards hit New England on Monday, closing most major airports between Washington and New York. The storm should boost heating oil use, but will also dampen gasoline demand as motorists stay at home. Venezuela, once the world's fifth largest exporter, is battling a prolonged opposition strike which has crippled the oil industry. Output there is still only half its normal three million barrels per day, while Nigerian oil workers threatened to cut off exports from Africa's top producer in a strike that began on Saturday. Blue-collar Nigerian oil workers joined a strike by white-collar workers on Tuesday, but oil companies managed to maintain exports using senior staff to replace strikers.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk

NORTHERN Ireland home owners topping up on heating oil are forking out extra after the latest price hikes.

Retailers across the province have been forced to increase their prices as concerns mount over war against Iraq.

In addition, the oil workers strike in Venezuela, which aims to force the country's beleaguered President Hugo Chavez to step down or agree to early elections, has led to production shortages.

A snap survey carried out by the Belfast Telegraph revealed that the price of 900 litres of home heating oil varied from £204 to £214 across the province.

That is a sharp rise since last November when householders could have bought their oil for as little as £165.

However, costs have still not peaked to post September 11 heights when consumers had to pay around £230 for a fill.

Yesterday some of the cheapest prices included Gillen Fuel in Londonderry offering 900 litres for £205 and Stanley Gordon and Sons in Lisburn selling at £204.

Finlay Fuels in Carrickfergus quoted a cash price of £210. Kane Fuels in Bangor offered £212.63, the same as Eno Oils in Belfast.

Connors Fuel in Glengormley gave a price of £214.80 but offered to try and match the price offered by rivals.

David Meekin, of Meekin Oil based in Templepatrick, has priced 900 litres at £205.

Mr Meekin said: "Prices have gone up considerably in the last month because of the Venezuelan strike and uncertainty over what may happen in the Middle East. Crude oil is probably at its highest for two years.

"It is almost impossible to predict what will happen. It depends on what occurs over Iraq. If hostilities erupt we expect prices will become very high for a short period and then drop back to what they were.

"We tend to think the cost of oil is very high because it has been so low for so long."

David Blevings, of the NI Oil Federation, said: "There is no doubt that because of a number of international factors prices are under pressure as companies move to secure supplies for their customers in the oil markets."

He said: "However, experience has always been that when normality is restored prices also return to their usual level and it is worth remembering that over the distance oil has continually been the cheapest home heating."

reuters.com Tue February 18, 2003 06:29 AM ET By Tom Ashby

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices fell further from two-year highs on Tuesday as a diplomatic battle between Europe and the United States over Iraq eased fears of a supply disruption from the world's eighth largest oil exporter.

International benchmark Brent crude oil fell four cents to $31.88 per barrel, its second consecutive day of falls, having hit a two-year high of $33.10 last week.

U.S. crude futures, which were closed on Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday, fell 74 cents to $36.06.

"I don't think anyone is naive enough to think war clouds have gone away for good, but they are being held in check for a while at least," a London-based broker said.

"An attack at the end of February through to the middle of March still seems almost inevitable," said Lawrence Eagles of brokers GNI.

European Union leaders united on Monday to warn Iraq that United Nations arms inspections could not go on indefinitely without Baghdad's cooperation and declared for the first time that war could be the last resort.

But the 15 leaders, bitterly divided over the Iraq crisis, failed to agree on how much time Baghdad should be given to rid itself of suspected weapons of mass destruction.

The split prompted the United States and Britain to look at other ways to get the Security Council to support a new resolution on Iraq.

But no draft is expected to emerge before Wednesday, with both nations waiting for the end of a public debate by countries without seats on the 15-member Security Council.

That session, expected to turn into another forum against U.S. war plans, begins on Tuesday afternoon and will spill into Wednesday.

BAD WEATHER, STRIKES

Oil prices took some support from bad weather in northeast United States, the country's largest consumer of heating oil, a two-month-old strike in Venezuela and a strike by Nigerian oil workers which began on Saturday.

Heavy blizzards hit New England on Monday, closing most major airports between Washington and New York. The storm should boost heating oil use, but will also dampen gasoline demand as motorists stay at home.

Venezuela, once the world's fifth largest exporter, is battling a prolonged opposition strike which has crippled the oil industry.

Output there is still only half its normal three million barrels per day, while Nigerian oil workers threatened to cut off exports from Africa's top producer in a strike that began on Saturday.

Blue-collar Nigerian oil workers joined a strike by white-collar workers on Tuesday, but oil companies managed to maintain exports using senior staff to replace strikers.

www.boston.com By Bloomberg News, 2/18/2003

LONDON -- OPEC may temporarily suspend production quotas and increase supplies should Iraqi oil output be halted because of a US-led military attack, an official from the group said.

Suspending the quotas is one of the likely scenarios, said the official, who declined to be identified. Under that option, OPEC countries would stop complying with output quotas and pump crude at full capacity, he said.

''OPEC is not the most fleet-of-foot organization,'' said Steve Turner, an oil analyst at Commerzbank Securities. ''It could have trouble reacting quickly, so abandoning quotas might just be the only sensible strategy.''

Oil prices fell yesterday on speculation a US-led attack on Iraq may be delayed as UN arms inspectors seek more time. Brent crude fell 50 cents to $32.

Within the 11-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have significant spare capacity to pump more, analysts have said. Many OPEC countries ignored their output quotas after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990 disrupted exports from both countries and caused prices to surge to $40 a barrel. Iraq doesn't have an OPEC quota because its oil exports are under UN supervision.

Because many OPEC members are pumping near their limit to compensate for a supply shortfall from Venezuela, the group may not be able to replace Iraq's oil should it be disrupted. Iraq is the third-largest Middle East oil producer and pumped 2.48 million barrels last month, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Algeria's oil minister said Thursday OPEC can raise production by 3 million barrels a day within a month.

This story ran on page E5 of the Boston Globe on 2/18/2003.

www.bakutoday.net OPEC should cut its output by three to four million barrels per day as soon as the Iraq crisis is over, the oil cartel's second biggest producer Iran said Monday. 18/02/2003 08:19 "After the end of the Iraq crisis, OPEC will have to reduce its production by three to four million bpd" to avoid a collapse in prices, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh told the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB). "If an attack on Iraq doesn't last long, we will see a major fall in prices," Zangeneh said.

He said there were still a number of uncertainties about the oil market in the future, but the next Iranian year, beginning March 21, "will be the year of output cuts for Iran", Zangeneh predicted.

"If the United States succeeds in getting installed in Iraq, nobody can predict when Iraqi production will return to its normal status", Zangeneh warned, pointing out that "nobody knows" if Iraqi oil wells would be damaged. He asserted that the present hike in oil prices, which hit their highest level in more than two years Friday amid uncertainty over Iraq, is mainly due to "political matters and not economic".

Iran's output quota, within the OPEC oil cartel, currently stands at 3.18 million bpd, but actual production is closer to 3.6 million bpd.

OPEC oil production rose 2.2 percent to 25.663 million barrels per day (bpd) in January from December despite turmoil in strike-hit Venezuela, the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) reported in its latest issue.

Source: Tehran Times