www.channel4.com Published: 13-Mar-03; 08:02 By: ITN

Oil prices have jumped more than a dollar as the US reported a fresh fall in fuel stocks, leaving little supply cover for looming war in Iraq.

US April light crude futures climbed $1.11 to $37.83 a barrel, below its recent peak of $39.99. Oil prices set a record high of $41.15 a barrel during the 1990-91 Gulf crisis.

In London benchmark Brent futures rose 62 cents to $33.91 a barrel.

Oil prices are up 20 per cent this year on concerns that a war in Iraq could upset oil supplies from the Middle East.

Prices eased briefly yesterday after the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which controls over half of world crude exports, pledged in Vienna to ensure adequate supplies for nervous oil markets.

Saudi Arabia has raised production sharply since the start of the year to make up for supplies lost from Venezuela during a two-month workers' strike.

But the International Energy Agency, adviser on energy to 26 industrialised nations, said OPEC's spare oil production capacity had been squeezed to just 900,000 bpd following the recent production increases.

"This is less than the potential loss of supply in the event of war in Iraq," said the Paris-based IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report.

Iraqi output, running at 1.7 million bpd over the past month, would be expected to be halted in the event of war. In addition, Kuwait has said it might need to suspend as much as 700,000 bpd as a precaution.

"The market is heading into a period of heightened uncertainty with low stocks and limited spare production and shipping capacity. A further supply disruption would tax a system operating at close to capacity," the IEA said.

biz.yahoo.com Thursday March 13, 3:07 pm ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - World oil prices plunged more than 4 percent on Thursday as the United States said efforts to garner support for a new U.N. resolution on Iraq could extend into next week, potentially further delaying a Middle East war.

News that the Japanese government plans to sell 300,000 barrels per day from its state reserves should U.S.-led forces begin attacking Iraq, according to a Nihon Keizai Shimbun report, added to the day's slide, traders said.

U.S. light crude was $1.68 down at $36.15 a barrel. London benchmark Brent crude oil fell $1.44 a barrel to $32.47 a barrel.

Oil prices are still up 16 percent this year on concerns that a war in Iraq, which itself ships around 4 percent of world oil exports, could upset oil supplies from other producers in the Middle East.

Prices fell as the White House said on Thursday diplomatic efforts to secure U.N consensus on a new resolution on Iraq could spill over into next week.

Secretary of State Colin Powell told a congressional committee there may be no vote at all on the resolution, a sign that Washington fears it may not get enough support.

A German government source said compromise in the U.N. Security Council on Iraq was unlikely, even if a vote is put off until next week.

Further relief for soaring prices came from an end to freezing U.S. temperatures which have supported heating oil prices at near record levels in recent weeks.

Prices rose on Wednesday as the fall in U.S. stocks combined with worries that oil cartel OPEC (News - Websites)would not be able to compensate for lost Iraqi exports in event of war.

Latest U.S. data showed crude inventories falling last week to a 27-year low. There were also sharp drops in gasoline inventories, which ought to be growing as stockbuilding starts for the summer driving season.

Analysts say core oil stocks are now 89 million barrels below normal. "Given the reported ramping of OPEC production and the continued recovery of Venezuelan production, the shortfall is shocking," SG Securities said in a research note.

OPEC STEPS UP OUTPUT

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has stepped up output this year to cover an outage of crude from Venezuela, where an anti-government strike brought production to little more than a trickle in December and January.

Venezuela, normally the fifth-biggest exporter providing about 13 percent of U.S. oil imports, has increased shipments of crude and oil products though rebel oil workers say production is still less than half of normal levels.

Analysts say timing is now key for the war because oil demand is generally two million barrels lower in the second quarter of the year as spring advances and the loss of Iraqi crude will not be as acutely felt as now.

The West's energy watchdog, the International Energy Agency (IEA), says the OPEC cartel likely lacks enough capacity to compensate immediately for the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil.

OPEC, however, has pledged to guarantee supplies should war break out and Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi reiterated on Thursday OPEC's ability to deliver oil in case of war in Iraq.

The Nihon Kezai report said Japan will consider releasing oil with the United States, regardless of what the (IEA) advises. Japan and the U.S. are members of the 26-nation IEA, the energy watchdog for industrialized nations that is based in Paris.

The IEA has said that it will allow OPEC to try to cover any shortages in war before it considers, as a last resort, releasing inventories from emergency stockpiles held in consumer nations.

Those reserves, built after the 1974 Arab oil embargo, were last used in the 1990-91 Gulf war after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.

onebusiness.nzoom.com

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as Opec producers sought to reassure markets they could avert a supply shortage in the event of war in Iraq while the US called for a UN vote this week that could authorize war.

US light crude was down 48 cents at $US36.79 a barrel, below its recent peak of $US39.99. Oil prices set a record high of $US41.15 a barrel during the 1990-91 Gulf crisis.

London benchmark Brent for April fell 39 cents to $US33.30 a barrel.

Prices fell as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls around 60% of world crude exports, pledged during a ministerial meeting in Vienna that it was ready to fill any disruption in supply.

Traders took Opec's stance to mean that it would make up for a likely halt to Iraq's oil exports if the United States launches an attack.

"There will be no shortage of oil," said Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters. "The test is, when the need is there, whether we will use the capacity or not and I can assure you we will."

Oil prices are up 20% this year on concerns that a war in Iraq could upset oil supplies from the Middle East.

Efforts by Britain and the United States to give Iraq a March 17 ultimatum on scrapping weapons of mass destruction or face attack failed to draw widespread backing, forcing them to put off a vote in the Security Council until later this week.

Both France and Russia have said they would block the March 17 deadline. Other members of the 15-nation Security Council have suggested giving Iraq a further 45 days to comply.

Dashed hopes

Opec dashed hopes among consumer nations for a formal suspension of its output limits if war broke out. Instead, the cartel decided to maintain existing quotas of 24.5 million barrels per day (bpd), said Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil.

"It doesn't really matter what Opec decides officially," said Gary Ross of New York consultancy PIRA Energy. "Saudi Arabia has made its policy clear. They've told customers they won't allow a shortage."

Saudi Arabia has lifted output sharply in recent weeks and analysts say it is now pumping more than 9 million bpd of its 10.5 million bpd capacity.

Delegates said the group's official communique would stress that OPEC already has done a lot to ensure adequate supplies by filling shortages from strike-bound Venezuela.

Severe disruption to Venezuelan supplies since early December 2002 has helped push oil stocks to the lowest level since 1975, and pushed heating oil and natural gas prices during a severe northern winter to record highs.

Forecasts for milder temperatures next week in the US Northeast, the world's largest regional heating oil market, also helped pressure prices on Tuesday.

With most in Opec already pumping to the limit, the cartel would be stretched to cover the loss of Baghdad's 1.7 million barrels daily to the 77 million bpd world market.

Kuwait in addition may close up to 700,000 bpd capacity near its northern border with Iraq, where US troops are poised for war.

sg.biz.yahoo.com Tuesday March 11, 6:01 AM (MORE) Dow Jones Newswires 03-10-03 1634ET

MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Mexican state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos (E.PEM), or Pemex, said it produced a record 3.42 million barrels of crude oil Sunday.

In a press release Monday, Pemex said new production wells at its heavy crude offshore Cantarell oil field contributed to the new production level.

The Northeast Marine Region, which includes Cantarell, produced 2.45 million barrels of crude Sunday, almost all heavy crude. Cantarell contributed 2.12 million barrels.

Pemex is aiming to produce an average of 3.4 million b/d of crude oil this year, up from 3.2 million b/d in 2002. By 2006, Pemex expects to be producing 4 million b/d of crude.

The new record output comes as Mexico ramps up its crude exports in response to rising prices and supply concerns generated by the threat of war in Iraq and Venezuela's general strike in December and January.

Pemex exported 1.79 million b/d of crude oil in January - out of total production of 3.3 million b/d - and planned to increase exports to 1.88 million b/d in February.

Energy officials have said Mexico could add an additional 100,000 b/d to the market if needed, although Deputy Energy Minister Juan Antonio Barges said last week that he considered the market to be saturated at present.

-By Anthony Harrup, Dow Jones Newswires; (5255) 5080-3450, anthony.harrup@dowjones.com

www.dailytimes.com.pk

LONDON: Oil prices gushed higher in early trading here on Monday as war worries escalated at the start of a crucial week in the Iraq crisis and efforts by OPEC energy ministers to try to calm the market fell on deaf ears. The price of benchmark Brent North Sea crude oil for April delivery climbed to $34.32 per barrel from $34.10 at the close of the previous session. In New York, the reference light sweet crude April-dated futures contract shot up 78 cents to $37.78 a barrel on Friday. Prices resumed their upswing as the UN Security Council prepared to debate a vote on a US-British resolution giving Baghdad until March 17 to disarm or face war, as France wooed opposition among African states. Washington warned it could launch strikes before next Monday’s deadline if the United Nations rejected the resolution. “It looks as if it could be a very strong week for crudes and the products as war fears mount,” said GNI-Man Financial analyst Lawrence Eagles “Iraq will continue to dominate market talk, especially as it would appear as if the US will have to go to war without a UN mandate,” he added. Jittery oil traders found little solace in remarks from oil ministers attending a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna to discuss production quotas. Venezuela and Algeria, two members of the 11-strong cartel, said they believed OPEC had enough room for manoeuvre to avoid a supply shortage in the event of war. But UAE oil minister Obaid Al-Nasseri said it would be difficult for the oil cartel to increase production as it is already at almost full capacity, a concern shared by analysts. Eagles said of the OPEC ministers, “Politically they are important but in practical terms few observers believe that there is any significant spare capacity outside of Saudi Arabia.” —AFP OPEC split on plans to suspend production ceilings during war VIENNA/TEHRAN: Iran on Monday said it opposed a bid by Western-friendly OPEC states to suspend output limits should the US launch an attack on Iraq, fuelling fears of a further spike in the price of oil. Leading cartel power Saudi Arabia is hoping to get backing at a Tuesday meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to set aside production quotas if war stops Iraqi exports. Riyadh also is trying to convince importing nations there is no need for a release, in the event of war, from their emergency strategic stockpiles. But Saudi faces stern opposition from Iran for a plan that Tehran says implies support for a US attack by controlling oil prices. “Iran will not back politically motivated decisions,” Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told the official IRNA news agency. OPEC should refrain from taking decisions which would imply support for a “US military assault against one of OPEC’s member states,” Zanganeh said. US light crude futures rose 29 cents to $38.07 a barrel, approaching 1990 Gulf War record highs of $41. “This is a perfect opportunity for OPEC to prove that it is a friend to the world community,” said Peter Gignoux, head of the energy desk at Salomon Schroder Smith Barney in London. —Reuters