www.oneworld.net Marcela Valente

BUENOS AIRES, Feb 6 (IPS) - Adolfo Pérez Esquivel, Nobel Peace laureate, urged his fellow Argentines Thursday to join in a global day for peace and against the potential U.S.-led war against Iraq, a vigil to occur Saturday, Feb 15, in numerous countries around the world.

''The war is not a response to the threat of Saddam Hussein, but to the interests of the United States military-industrial complex, (which seeks) control over petroleum sources around the world,'' charged Pérez, who received the 1980 Nobel Prize for Peace in honour of his defence of human rights during the Argentine military dictatorship (1976-1983).

According to a survey conducted in 41 countries by the Gallup polling firm, Argentina has the highest anti-war sentiment, with 83 percent of respondents opposed to an attack on Iraq.

Four percent said they would support a military offensive against Iraq if it had the backing of the United Nations, and only three percent were in favour of a unilateral attack by the United States.

Argentina was ranked second in the Gallup poll -- after Switzerland -- in the portion of respondents who said they would oppose their government supporting military action against Iraq.

Some local analysts believe this rejection could be due to the failure of the United States to offer Argentina assistance during the devastating economic crisis this South American nation has been suffering over the last year.

The Peace and Justice Service (SERPAJ), the human rights group headed by Pérez Esquivel, organised a ''peace day'' in Argentina Thursday alongside other rights groups, the CTA labour union, and associations of entrepreneurs, artists, intellectuals and unemployed workers.

But the idea for a peace day on a global scale emerged during the World Social Forum last week in the southern Brazilian city of Porto Alegre. Delegates and activists there set the date for Feb 15, a day for individuals and civil society organisations worldwide to join in expressing their opposition to a possible U.S.-led war on Iraq.

In Buenos Aires, the proposal that was most popular for a Feb 15 peace event was to stage a march from Plaza Italia, in the Palermo district, to the U..S. embassy, 600 m away. But other events, including ceremonies for reflection and calls for peace, are also being scheduled.

Tati Almeyda, of the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo Association-Founders, told IPS she deeply opposes a military offensive and charged that the United States is going to carry the world into war just because it wants control over sources of oil.

This group of mothers of those who disappeared during Argentina's dictatorship, in addition to taking part in the Feb 15 peace day, will urge ''all women-mothers of the world'', on Feb 12, to demand peace from the authorities in their own countries, from the United States, and from the United Nations Security Council.

Pérez Esquivel, meanwhile, says there is ''a single thread'' connecting the U.S. conflict with Iraq and the crisis in Venezuela, another country that is a leading producer of petroleum, and under normal circumstances the top supplier to the United States.

''The war constitutes a threat to all humanity,'' he added.

The human rights leader wrote an open letter to U.S. President George W. Bush asking him ''not to defy God and not to encourage intolerance and hate.'' Pérez Esquivel, however, said he is sceptical about the chances of achieving a reversal of the war machine that Washington has already set in motion.

''Given the history of the U.S. president since he was governor of Texas, we know that he did not offer clemency to anyone, and that all those who were sentenced to death under his watch were executed,'' noted the peace laureate.

He also sent a letter to the United Nations urging the adoption of ''concrete decisions to prevent the people of the world from being dragged into an armed conflict with unforeseeable consequences, one which could threaten the lives of millions of people.''

Instead -- and along the lines of statements made by the new president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva --, Pérez Esquivel said, ''The battle that the peoples of the world should fight is against the silent bomb of hunger, which kills more people than wars, and against social exclusion and poverty.''

www.thebatt.com By Esther Robards-Forbes February 04, 2003

Shouts echoed across the Academic Plaza Monday afternoon as students gathered to protest the possible war in Iraq.

"Bush, Exxon, Mobil, Shell! Take your war and go to hell!" was the call taken up by the group of more than 30 students, faculty and staff. The group carried picket signs declaring, "Give peace a chance!" and "Disarm Bush!"

The anti-war protest was the first on Texas A&M's campus in a long time, but it will not be the last, the protesters said.

The protest was organized by residents Karen Glover, Marie Leonard and Christina Morales, who invited community groups such as the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship and student groups such as the Aggie Democrats and the Green Party to participate.

Protesters obtained more than 150 signatures from students who supported the peace movement, according to Jonathan Steed, president of the Aggie Democrats.

"I see nothing to be gained by going to war," said Bob Presley, an oceanography professor who has taught at A&M for 32 years. "We don't want (Iraq) developing weapons, but with the inspectors there, that is unlikely to happen. Killing thousands of civilians is not the way to solve this problem."

The protest was organized mainly to raise awareness on campus about the issues surrounding President George W. Bush's plans for war, Leonard said.

Steed said he is worried the war with Iraq will be motivated by the wrong reasons.

"Bush's administration has been bought and paid for by the oil companies, and that is what this war is about. Russia and the U.S. have already started negotiations on splitting up Iraq's oil once the war is over," Steed said. "There's evidence right there. We haven't been attacked and by going in there we'll destabilize the whole region and open a huge can of worms."

Steed said he thinks the Bush administration is not considering the interests of all American citizens.

"One-third of our nation's homeless are veterans, and Bush wants to create more, even after cutting funding to the VA hospitals," he said. "Bush and Cheney have never been in combat. I'm going to listen to the people who have been in combat, and right now most of those people are against this war."

With current economic problems in Venezuela meaning less exported gasoline to the U.S., it is estimated that a war with Iraq will cause gasoline prices will skyrocket to as much as $3 a gallon in some parts of the country, Steed said.

"I really don't think that most students want to pay more at the gas pump," Steed said.

Other students felt that war with Iraq is unavoidable.

Paul Cozby, a freshman international business management major, said he supported the protesters after he stopped to sign the protesters' petition in the plaza.

"I support peace," said Cozby. "War is the last resort, but in some cases it can't be avoided. I don't want Saddam to sell a nuke to al-Qaida."

Steven Mitchell, a member of the Corps of Cadets and sophomore environmental design major, said war is sometimes a necessary evil.

"If not for war we would be speaking Japanese or German. (Iraq) is going to bring this war on everyone whether we like it or not," said Mitchell.

Halfway through the protest, Denita Noland, the interim minister for the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship, stepped up on one of the nearby benches and the protesters fell silent.

"The leaders of our great nation have forgotten the lessons of history and war," said Noland, as the shadow of a flag at half-staff fell across the crowd of protesters. "How many flags will fly at half-mast in Iraq if we invade? Every life is precious and every life should be mourned."

The protesters also held a vigil at 6 p.m. on the Academic Plaza, but at around 6:10 p.m. about 100 Corps members arrived at the Academic Plaza to demonstrate in support of war.

www.thisismoney.com Monday view, Daily Mail 3 February 2003

WAR in the Gulf seems unavoidable. The only remaining doubts are over its timing, nature and duration. From a stock market perspective, a swift and definitive outcome is essential to restore confidence and reignite the global economy. The oil markets have other worries.

Some point to the last Gulf War and predict a lasting collapse in the cost of crude once the tanks roll into Baghdad. That looks like wishful thinking. Major issues for oil prices have been piling up since the last conflict.

It may be that the Western economies will face the burden of expensive oil for years to come.

The bears argue otherwise. Despite four years of high oil prices, their consensus remains that prices will fall back rapidly to $18 a barrel. In reality, this decade will be remembered for seemingly endless periods of oil at $30 a barrel and petrol at almost 80p a litre.

Saddam Hussein has the ability to change the price of oil for decades. Should Iraq choose to destroy its wells and damage its vast underground reservoirs, the rest of the oil producing world would face a major challenge. In spite of soothing words from Saudi Arabia, even a temporary loss of Iraqi output and capacity would be disastrous.

Under UN control, Iraq has been pumping some 2.6m barrels a day, pretty close to its sustainable capacity. Almost 2m barrels have been exported daily to Western markets.

During any Gulf conflict, this flow is likely to stop. If allied troops move quickly, the taps can be turned back on under UN/US supervision. But world stocks are low, so even a short-lived disruption might trigger a price hike. Stocks should then start to recover and prices could drop.

But if Baghdad sabotages its oil infrastructure, there are big problems. We are already being short-changed by Venezuela thanks to its strikes.

Peak global oil demand is 77m barrels a day. Maximum supply capacity, in spite of billions spent every year by the industry, is stuck below 80m barrels. All the surplus capacity is in the hands of Opec.

That surplus is now less than normal due to quota busting. On a sustainable basis, there may be little more than 3m barrels a day of unused supply. Prolonged loss of Iraqi oil would leave the world pumping virtually every available barrel.

No system can operate for long near 100% of capacity, particularly when it is largely in the hands of unstable suppliers. One more producer glitch would leave the world physically short of oil at a time of low stocks and rising seasonal demand.

The likelihood is that Iraq's oilfields will survive unscathed. A new, benign regime in Baghdad could eventually see sanctions lifted. Iraq has the capability over several years to boost significantly its capacity and exports. But this will not happen overnight, so it is foolhardy to assume that oil prices will decline immediately.

Opec's January agreement to boost supplies is little more than a placebo for a gullible patient. Most producers are already pumping out as much as they can. The deal legitimises recent cheating, but will add little new oil to top up empty tanks.

US market is gearing* up for its summer driving season with low stocks and scant chance of weaker demand. Once again, US motorists can expect to pay $3 a gallon.

A rapid end to war could stimulate stronger economic growth and lift oil demand. Oil prices have been firm for four consecutive years without meaningful demand growth. Supply is expanding too slowly, as evidenced by the failure of the world's major quoted oil companies to increase their output.

The myriad uncertainties plaguing the world's key oil producers will not vanish overnight. Poor handling of Iraq, coupled with the unresolved situation in Israel/Palestine, could mean heightened tensions among the Arab states.

Extra supplies are coming largely from Angola, Kazakhstan, Brazil and Russia. The days of predominantly secure supplies from the US and Europe are ending. Risk to supply has arguably never been greater, so the belief that cheap oil will return is dangerously complacent.

• AFTER 15 years in the City researching the oil industry, Alan Marshall is now a freelance writer and consultant.

www.iol.co.za February 03 2003 at 02:51PM By Matshelane Mamabolo

President Thabo Mbeki warned on Sunday that a United States-led military attack on Iraq would send oil prices through the roof and scupper attempts at African economic development.

Mbeki, speaking after a meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, said the Iraqi government had told him it was eager to co-operate with United Nations weapons inspectors scouring the country for weapons of mass destruction.

A self-appointed champion of the developing world, Mbeki has campaigned against armed intervention, fearing that a war against Iraq could destabilise the Middle East and hamper development efforts in Africa.

"If you had a war, oil prices would shoot up to the extent that we would have to say goodbye to African development," he said, adding that many of Africa's crippling debt problems sprung from a surge in oil prices in the early 1970s.

'We must do everything to avoid a war'The threat of war in the Middle East - which supplies 40 percent of world crude exports - and a two-month oil strike in Venezuela have already pushed prices well beyond $30 (about R257).

The looming threat of war dominated talks between Blair and Mbeki.

"It was a very frank meeting. The president told the prime minister that war with Iraq could be avoided, and he was sending his deputy foreign affairs minister to Iraq to persuade the Iraqis to be more pro-active," Mbeki's spokesman said.

"He said we must do everything to avoid a war which would have devastating consequences for the African continent and push up the price of oil," he added.

Blair is the strongest supporter of US President George Bush's uncompromising stance on Iraq. Both men said on Friday that Iraq had only a few weeks to come clean about any weapons of mass destruction or face military action.

'It is possible to resolve this matter without going to war'"It is possible to resolve this matter without going to war," Mbeki insisted. "We have been talking to the Iraqi government. What they have been saying to us is that they are very keen and very willing to co-operate fully with the inspectors."

Mbeki also said any attack on Iraq must have a fresh mandate from the United Nations in the form of a new resolution. - Reuters

• This article was originally published on page 2 of The Daily News on 03 February 2003

www.news24.com 02/02/2003 15:30  - (SA)   Mike Peacock

London - President Thabo Mbeki warned on Sunday that a US-led military attack on Iraq would send oil prices through the roof and scupper attempts at African economic development.

Mbeki, talking to Sky Television after a meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, said the Iraqi government had told him it was eager to co-operate with UN inspectors scouring the country for weapons of mass destruction.

A self-appointed champion of the developing world, Mbeki has campaigned against armed intervention fearing that war with Iraq could destabilise the Middle East and scuttle development efforts in Africa, the world's poorest continent.

"If you had a real war (oil prices) would shoot up to the extent that we would really have to say goodbye to African development," he said, adding that many of Africa's still crippling debt problems sprung from a surge in oil prices in the early 1970s.

The threat of war in the Middle East, which supplies 40% of world crude exports, and a two-month oil strike in Venezuela have already pushed prices well beyond $30.

The looming threat of war with Iraq dominated talks between Blair and Mbeki on Saturday when the South African leader delivered the same message.

"It was a very frank meeting. The president told the prime minister war with Iraq could be avoided, and he was sending his deputy foreign affairs minister to Iraq to persuade the Iraqis to be more proactive," Mbeki's spokesperson said.

"He said we must do everything to avoid a war which would have devastating consequences for the African continent and push up the price of oil," he added.

Blair is the strongest supporter of US President George W Bush's uncompromising stance on Iraq. Both men said on Friday that Iraq had just a handful of weeks to come clean about any weapons of mass destruction or face military action.

"It is possible to resolve this matter...without going to war," Mbeki insisted. "We have been talking to the Iraqi government. What they have been saying to us is that they are very keen and very willing to co-operate fully with the inspectors."

Mbeki also said any attack on Iraq must have a fresh mandate from the United Nations in the form of a new resolution.

Bush and Blair have reserved the right to wage war without a second resolution if the UN Security Council blocked it. "That decision, we are quite convinced, must come from the Security Council," Mbeki said.