antiguasun.caribbeanads.com Natlie S. Fleming 03/19/2003

Edging on the brink of a war between the United States and Iraq, General Manager of the West Indies Oil Company Ltd. (WIOC) Fyfe Saddler said that his company for the moment, can meet its demands.

He further said that WIOC has an adequate supply in its reserve and consumers have no need to worry.

“We obviously cannot entirely control the world’s market on the supply and demand factor,” Saddler said.

“All we endeavour over the years we have been operating in Antigua, and will continue to do as one of our highest priorities, is to try to maintain security of supply to the people of Antigua, APUA, to the businesses that operate in Antigua and to each and every household,” he added.

“I think without doubt, so far we have succeeded in doing that 100 per cent and will endeavour to the extent of our abilities to be able to do that and I hope we can succeed,” the WIOC head said.

“I think if there is something that dramatically affects the world’s supply of oil products, which we are obviously seeing with some of the issues that we are confronted with in the imminent future, we cannot control that, but we will certainly make best our endeavour to ensure continuity of supply to Antigua & Barbuda,” he said.

With regard to alternative source of supply, in the event its main suppliers Venezuela and Europe fall short, Saddler said, “We have an international network of oil traders and we who are continuously seeking back up, secondary, and even tertiary supply sources in the event that supplies from the main sources such as Venezuela gets disrupted.”

“We hope that we are well equipped as anybody depending on global developments to be able to maintain the security of supply for oil products,” he said.

“We want to make sure whether it is fuel for vehicle, for cooking or its fuel oil that we supply to APUA for electricity generation that all of these product lines are fully supplied to ensure that there aren’t any outages, that tanks don’t dry up and electricity continues 24 hours, seven days per week,” he added.

As to whether there will be additional costs to consumers, Saddler said that is a decision to be taken by the government, but believes that with a looming war, prices to consumers, not only in Antigua & Barbuda but throughout the world will increase.

He wants consumers to adopt a number of energy saving techniques in the event of any higher energy prices.

“In terms of average business or household, clearly there are a number of things one can do to economise – whether it means using your air conditioning less or sharing lifts to and fro from work, and businesses to economise on consumption for electricity – all those things done collectively can have quite an impact on the overall demand factor and apart from responsibility within individual businesses – it stands for each and every individual both personally and in the workplace to do whatever they can to economise,” he said.

“The other thing that consumers can take some reassurance from is the fact that we have fairly large storage capabilities and we are endeavouring to hold as much cushioning stock as we can so if supply lines do get tight that we do have a buffer to achieve that,” Saddler said.

www.newsday.com The Associated Press March 19, 2003, 12:33 PM EST

As the United States and Iraq move closer to war, oil markets seemed to be taking it all in stride. Global crude oil stocks are growing, prices declining and some analysts are talking cautiously of a possible oil glut on the horizon. Lower energy prices probably would follow.

That is, energy experts warned, if a war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or, in the worst case, finds a way to disrupt other Persian Gulf supplies.

For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a swift one.

Oil prices dropped by more than $3 a barrel, or about 9 percent, on Tuesday, falling to their lowest in more than two months as traders believed there is enough crude in the system to make up for Iraq's lost production if war erupts.

The price of crude oil for April delivery was down another 82 cents to $30.85 a barrel by midday Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil traders "are beginning .. to realize there's a bit of a glut of oil around," said Leo Drollas, chief economist of the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies.

But that oil has yet to reach the U.S. markets.

The Energy Department said Wednesday U.S. crude oil stocks remained uncomfortably low at 270 million barrels, roughly where inventories have been most of this year and at the minimum industry says is needed for smooth refinery operation. The U.S. stocks increased only slightly over a week ago.

Crude inventories have consistently been 300,000 to 400,000 barrels below a year ago, said Doug MacIntyre, an oil analyst for the Energy Information Administration. Imports also have been down from previous levels, although OPEC producers other than Iraq and strife-torn Venezuela have been pumping more oil for weeks.

The low U.S. inventories reflect transportation delays, but also reluctance by refiners to buy oil when the price has been $35 to $37 a barrel, analysts said.

Much of that oil is now in storage in the Persian Gulf or in tankers on the high seas, say oil analysts. Saudi Arabia is believed to have as much as 50 million barrels in storage in the country and more en route to other storage facilities. That's enough to replace Iraq's 1.5 million to 2 million barrels a day for about a month.

Larry Goldstein, president of the private Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, said the markets also have been calmed because the Bush administration has made clear that it's ready to use some of the 600 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to counter shortages.

Rep. Billy Tauzin, R-La., chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said this week he is convinced the reserve is capable of providing oil quickly on orders from President Bush. It has shifted "from the fill mode to the flow mode," Tauzin said.

Still, there remains some trepidation among oil traders and analysts should war in Iraq last a while. Crude oil prices are likely to remain volatile in the months to come, they cautioned.

"This thing could go right back up," said Tom Bentz, an analyst at BNP Paribas in New York, suggesting prices could rebound once fighting erupts. "We're still vulnerable because inventories are tight."

When prices jumped in the weeks before the Gulf War, oil inventories already were high. That helped cushion the impact on prices, which jumped briefly to more than $40 a barrel and then declined rapidly when it became clear that the war would be settled quickly.

The biggest fear in the market is that oil facilities in other Middle Eastern countries, such as Kuwait or Saudi Arabia, could be attacked -- a scenario that would cause oil prices to shoot higher very quickly, said Fadel Gheit, senior oil analyst at Fahnestock & Co. in New York.

Short of that happening, there is plenty of oil, Gheit said, and the recent price declines make clear that for the time being the "war premium" has disappeared. He said prices could drop an additional $5 a barrel in the coming days.

Energy experts say a glut could result if war in Iraq doesn't drag on and Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein doesn't torch his oil fields or disrupt other Persian Gulf suppliers.

For now, the markets are betting those things won't happen and that the war will be a short one.

news.ft.com Compiled by FT staff Published: February 13 2003 18:44 | Last Updated: March 20 2003 13:33

Thursday March 20

Donald Rumsfeld, US defence secretary, says three to four oil wells are on fire in southern Iraq and urges Iraqi civilians not to flee across borders to neighbouring countries and to listen to coalition radio on where to receive food and medicine.

Turkey's parliament approves in 332-202 vote the use of Turkish airspace for overflights of US warplanes in air campaign in northern Iraq.

US artillery positions fire against Iraqi gun emplacements 20km from the Iraq-Kuwait border. US troops in northern Kuwait and residents of Kuwait City make preparations against threat of biological and chemical attacks by Iraq.

Geoff Hoon, UK defence secretary, confirms British forces have already been involved in some of the military operations against Iraq.

Iraq launches six missiles - five towards northern Kuwait and one towards Kuwait City - and one apparent suicide plane strike near US-led forces in Kuwait in response to beginning of US air strikes on Baghdad, Kuwaiti officials say. Iraq denies the attacks.

US missile strikes on Baghdad kill one civilian, Information Minister Mohammed Saeed al-Sahaf, says. The International Red Cross later confirms that one civilian, a Jordanian woman, is killed and 14 other people are wounded in the initial attack on Baghdad.

President Saddam Hussein appears on Iraqi state television, three hours after the US launches a war to overthrow him, and accuses President George W. Bush of committing a crime against humanity.

President George W. Bush, in an address from the White House, says coalition forces have begun striking "selected targets of military importance".

Explosions rock Baghdad at dawn as allied forces begin the assault on Iraq with stealth fighter and cruise missile attacks targeting Saddam Hussein and other regime leaders.

Wednesday March 19 The deadline for President Saddam Hussein to leave Iraq expires as US-led forces prepare an unprecedented onslaught. US and British troops reported to have moved into the demilitarised zone between Kuwait and southern Iraq, poised to launch a ground invasion to follow an initial aerial assault. US military sources confirm that 17 Iraqi soldiers have surrendered to US-led forces in northern Kuwait. US and British aircraft have been dropping millions of leaflets into Iraq urging soldiers not to resist an invasion. Teams of lawyers are vetting targets selected for air strikes against Iraq to ensure that the war is conducted according to international law and that neither the attacking forces nor the British and the US governments can be accused of flouting it. White House spokesman Ari Fleischer says Americans should prepare for war that will cost lives and last for an unknown time. Germany, France and Russia call for the United Nations Security Council to continue to play a central role in the Iraq crisis, despite the expectation of an imminent US-led attack on Baghdad. Italy's government expresses support for the US and UK in their looming military action against Iraq, but says it it will not permit direct attacks from Italian bases. Turkey's government says it will ask parliament to grant US military the right to use Turkish airspace but will not immediately ask the legislature to vote to allow in US troops.

Tuesday March 18

Tony Blair, UK prime minister, wins crucial parliamentary debate on Iraq by saying the outcome of the crisis would define international politics for “the next generation”. A motion authorising the use of British troops in a possible attack against Iraq is passed by 412 votes to 149. President Saddam Hussein, dressed for battle, rejects a US ultimatum that he should go into exile and says Iraq is ready to repel any US-led invasion. Russia says the impending US-led attack against Iraq threatens the international anti-terrorism coalition. Russia was one of the first countries to support international efforts to prevent terrorism after the September 11,2001 attrocities.

United Nations weapons inspectors leave Iraq by plane for Cyprus after the UN tells them to cut short their hunt for hidden weapons of mass destruction and the US and its allies abandon diplomatic efforts to disarm Iraq. John Howard, Australia's prime minister, commits 2,000 Australian troops to fight in a US-led war against Iraq, despite overwhelming domestic opposition to military action without UN backing. Junichiro Koizumi, Japan's prime minister, backs the US decision to invade Iraq without without UN support if Saddam Hussein does not leave the country by Thursday.

Monday March 17

President George W. Bush issues an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein and his sons, to leave Iraq within 48-hours or face military action. Mr Bush announces the decision to go to war in a televised address from the White House.

Robin Cook, a senior UK cabinet member, resigns in protest over Iraq saying: "I can't accept collective responsibility for the decision to commit Britain now to military action without international agreement or domestic support."

The US, Britain and Spain withdraw proposals for a second UN Security Council resolution authorising force against Iraq, saying they will now act alone to disarm Saddam Hussein.

Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister, calls an emergency session of the cabinet to try to garner support from his ministers for military action and prepare the government for war against Iraq.

Lord Goldsmith, the UK Attorney General, says the combined effect of past Security Council resolutions 678, 687 and 1441 provide a strong case for military action against Iraq.

France maintains its threat to veto any second UN resolution. Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin, says France cannot accept a UN resolution including an ultimatum or automatic resort to force to disarm Iraq.

The US advises the UN nuclear agency to begin pulling its inspectors out of Iraq. UN suspends its operations to monitor the Iraq-Kuwait border and begins withdrawing its observers from the Iraqi side of the frontier in the face of an imminent US-led invasion of Iraq.

Saturday 15 and Sunday 16 March

War appears all but inevitable after the leaders of the US, Britain and Spain, meeting at an emergency summit in the Azores, set a deadline of Monday night for diplomatic efforts to win UN suppport for their hardline stance.

Iraq moves to a war footing as the ruling Revolutionary Command Council issues a decree dividing the country into four military zones under Sadam Hussein "to take the necessary steps to repulse and destroy any foreign aggression"

Saddam Hussein's most important Kurdish ally defects to Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq in what is being seen as an indication the Iraqi president's internal support is begining to crumble.

Friday 14 March

Gerhard Schröder, German chancellor, renews his support for France's anti-war stance, despite co-ordinated and increasingly caustic efforts by the US and Britain to undermine Paris.

Russia criticises Britain's six-point proposal for disarming Iraq, saying it is "not constructive and does not solve the main problem: the prevention of a plan to use force with regard to Baghdad."

Britain, the US and Spain plan a three-way crisis summit on Iraq to discuss the best course of action if agreement on a second United Nations resolution authorising the use of force cannot be achieved.

Baghdad submits a keenly-awaited report to support its claims that it has destroyed deadly VX nerve agent stocks and promises UN weapons inspectors another report on anthrax soon.

english.eastday.com

A US-led war with Iraq runs counter to the common aspiration of the international community to for a peaceful solution to the Iraqi crisis, an article carried by the People's Daily, China's leading newspaper, on Wednesday.

US President George W. Bush issued an ultimatum to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein late Monday, demanding that Saddam and his sons leave Iraq within 48 hours or face a US-led war.

In the televised speech to the nation, Bush also said the United Nations Security Council failed to enforce its resolutions on Iraqi disarmament.

With the ultimatum, a war without the authorization of the UN Security Council is imminent and the Iraq crisis is at a critical moment, the article noted.

The international community is deeply concerned about the escalating Iraq crisis, as peoples around the world and in most countries wish peace rather than war, the 15-member UN Security Council is stepping up its efforts to seek a political solution and the UN weapons inspection in Iraq is making headway, the article said.

It is common knowledge that the United Nations was created after World War II to maintain the world peace and security. If war against Iraq were to take place without the support of the United Nations, its legitimacy would be questioned, the article noted.

The principle of national sovereignty is the cornerstone of contemporary international laws and international relations. Ignoring it or even resorting to force to meddle in the internal affairs of other nations will severely damage the international relations and undermine the world peace, security and stability.

The article said China has persistently advocated peaceful and diplomatic solution to the Iraq crisis within the UN framework, and China will continue its diplomatic efforts so long as there still exists a gleam of hope for a peaceful solution.

Leaders from France, Russia and Germany have reiterated that the Iraq crisis should be solved within the framework of the United Nations, saying the diplomatic efforts to avoid the war should continue till the last minute, it said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said a war against Iraq would be "a mistake and would generate severe consequences" while French President Jacques Chirac said the ultimatum to Iraq was an " unilateral decision" and ran counter to the will of the United Nations Security Council and the international community."

Many countries around the world, including Brazil, Malaysia, Iran, Syria, Chile, Peru, Venezuela and Romania, have expressed their opposition to a US-led war on Iraq without the authorization of the Security Council. The Arab League has also flatly rejected the US ultimatum, saying such a final warning was issued "outside international legality."

Peace is a necessary precondition for all the countries in the world to co-exist and is a basic but lofty wish of the mankind, the article concluded.

www.euobserver.com

The Labour Party said that the Netherlands should not give ‘political support’ to the Americans. (Photo: EUobserver.com) EUOBSERVER / AMSTERDAM - The risk that the formation of a new centre-left coalition in the Netherlands will collapse over the war on Iraq has increased substantially. In an intense parliamentary debate last night, a sharp clash of opinions took place between the Labour Party (PvdA) and the Christian Democrats (CDA), who are currently negotiating the formation of a new government.

The Labour Party leader, Mr Bos, said that the Netherlands should not give ‘political support’ to the Americans. The PvdA will probably take part in a peace demonstration in Amsterdam on Saturday.

The parliamentary leader of the CDA, Maxime Verhagen, described the position of the PvdA as ‘sad’. The position of Prime Minister Balkenende’s outgoing centre-right cabinet, which has affirmed its ‘political’ but not military support for a US-led Iraq war, is generally regarded as a concession to the PvdA. This concession was necessary if Dutch policy on Iraq was to be consistent after a centre-left Cabinet assumed power.

Building government more difficult However, now the PvdA seems to be sticking to its total rejection of a war on Iraq. This makes a CDA-PvdA coalition, thought to be the only stable combination of parties that has a majority in parliament, increasingly difficult.

The cabinet’s distinction between ‘political’ and ‘military’ support was sharply critisised by both right-wing and left-wing parties as ‘hypocrital’ and ‘cowardly’. The leader of the List Pim Fortuyn (LPF) said that Holland would leave its most important ally, the United States, isolated by refusing military support. According to Femke Halsema, of the Greens (GroenLinks), the Dutch were contributing to the violation of international law by giving its political support to the US.

Dutch Patriot missiles sent to Turkey The distinction between ‘political’ and ‘military’ support is even more remarkable given the fact that Holland is on the list of 30 states who will back the US in its war against Iraq, released by the US State Department on Tuesday.

The Dutch have already sent Patriot missiles to Turkey. Among the 30 states who form part of the ‘coalition of the willing’ are four other EU member states: Denmark, Italy, Spain and the UK. All these other EU member states have offered some form of active military support.

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Written by Mark Beunderman Edited by Honor Mahony